Awwufelloff

Yep forecast starting to look much better! Should be good to go by around 4-5 pm. Monday...the potential for showers and thunderstorms continues at least through mid afternoon as the trough and cold front cross the region. With the frontal passage storm coverage will decrease from west to east with drier weather occurring by Monday evening as high pressure begins to build in from the west.

Agreed. Don is fantastic. He has a meteorology degree from Rutgers.

Yep already mowed twice in the last 2 weeks.

Latest Update: A shortwave trough riding through zonal flow will start off the new week with wet weather. Though a mild start, building instability will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms through the day. As this trough passes Monday evening, drier air from the west will taper off showers across western counties through the evening. Monday Night A chance of thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Legit. I mowed my lawn like 3 times this entire summer due to the lack of rain

As the surface low and trough continues east and crosses into Quebec, the trailing cold front will cross the forecast area, increasing the potential for showers for the entire area on Monday into Tuesday morning. Showers will taper off from northwest to southeast through the morning on Tuesday.

Wish the game was Sunday night, literally guaranteed perfect weather.

Why did the St Louis Rams get relocated? They are a pretty big and well supported sports city.

We wouldn't know that until gameday unfortunately. When we can check upstream radars 4-6 hours before we will have a much better idea on trajectory of the bands.

Yep Buffalo NWS introduced 60% chance of rain. It should be scattered so I would be shocked if it rained they entire day/game.

Yeah it looks to stay north of Orchard Park as of right now, but still very close call.

The front will stall just north of Lake Ontario through the rest of the weekend, as a deepening trough and sfc low tracks across Central Ontario precip will expand and push farther south across the northern half of the region. This will result in the potential for showers from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon mainly for areas from I90 northward. As the sfc low and trough continues east and crosses into Quebec, the trailing cold front will cross the forecast area, increasing the potential for showers for the entire area on Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Showers will taper off from northwest to southeast through the morning on Tuesday.

Buffalo national weather service has introduced a chance at shower Monday night. 😧

I mean I believe hes our most talented RB by far. You also don't invest a 2nd round pick into a player you don't expect to use alot. He will be involved a lot more as the season progresses.

I've used the UKIE quite a bit. Pivotal has a great model set for UK and Euro High Res. I use the HRRR quite a bit in severe season along with NAM 3KM. HRRR is best for convection with its higher res.

Ensembles really don't print out QPF output though. I mean they do but its very broad brushed. Something as mesoscale as pop up storms/showers its tough to use them. I use ENS all the time for long range temp output and large scale changes in the atmosphere. Once we get to the weekend we can start using the higher res guidance which will certainly give us a better forecast. What is the UKMO? Not really familiar with that one.

Are you a weatherman? I nearly went to school for it and have over 20k posts on weather forums that feature professional meteorologist interpreting models and posting daily. Also run a youtube channel stormchasing with 700 subs. It's by far my most knowledgable subject and biggest passion. GFS- Chance for showers at end of day EURO- clear skies GEM- chance for showers at end of day The other short term models only go out 84 hours so they're not useful yet. As mentioned in the KBUF NWS forecast discussion its very up in the air right now, but as of the first post it doesn't look terrible. sunset is 7:18 on Monday. Technically the sun will still be out. 😜

It means its still up in the air as the model guidance isn't quite conclusive yet. The NBM stands for national blend model which combines every known weather model together and gets general consensus of the output. Also a season ticket holder and last year was the worst weather I've ever seen for nearly every Bills game besides the opener.

Still up in the air. Buf national weather service discusses the differences in the models Sunday and beyond...there are big difference in the guidance packages, from zonal flow transitioning to a trough over the region (chances for showers), to amplification of the mid- level ridge (dry weather). Have gone with NBM guidance with this much uncertainty this far out.

I did this for last years games and my forecast worked out quite well. Early call looks good for the Monday Night game. Looks perfect! ☀️ Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

I prefer all games to be on Sunday at 1 Pm too.

Only the Chiefs

Lots of great QBS are at their end or retired already We were spoiled during the golden era of football the last 15 years. Brees, Rivers, both Mannings, Big Ben, Luck retiring. Brady, Rodgers, Matt Ryan are all near their end.

So Bills and Chiefs in AFC championship game again.