mjt328

With all the draft information now available online, fans are becoming more and more aware of lower round guys. The more knowledgeable they become (I use that term loosely), the more they form opinions, and the more they get upset when GMs don't see it their way. The Bills aren't the only fanbase whining about getting the wrong guy in the 5th Round. Even Beane has said he "would have liked" to draft a receiver. The problem was that need and value never lined up. Before the draft, most would have had our top needs as CB and DT. And by a large margin. DE/Edge came in at a distant third. That would leave WR as our 4th biggest need at best... depending on how comfortable you are with the Safety room. Most people also felt this was a weak draft class at WR, and a very deep one on the D-Line. Beane also believed that. Not trying to be an apologist for Beane, but the most you can ask for a GM is to move around the board and address your biggest needs on Days 1-2. Most guys drafted after that are going to be backups anyway. The best way to hit on picks on Day 3 is by identifying sleepers who are undervalued. Not by hyper-focusing on a single position of need. The Bills scouts believed that Deone Walker would have been a 1st Round prospect if not for a back injury affecting his 2024 game film. Why would you pass that up, to take a flyer for a WR you really don't believe in?

He actually said "including the playoffs." When you average in those games, we were #1.

Oliver always seems to play better when he's got a solid 1-Tech playing next to him. He was considered a pretty big disappointment with Harrison Phillips (injured most of his final days here), Quinton Jefferson, Vernon Butler and Star Lotulelei as the other DT. Then he finally broke out when we signed Daquan Jones. He had a couple Pro-Bowl caliber seasons and signed an extension. Once Jones started seeing his play decline, Oliver disappeared again.

I don't think it's fair to say the Bills only made a move when their back was against the wall. Beane was totally on-top of the WR situation until the Diggs drama last spring. Go back to exactly 3 years ago (right after the 13 seconds game). The Bills had All-Pro level Stefon Diggs right in the prime of his career, still motivated and happy. Gabe Davis was coming off his 4 touchdown performance, and seemed primed for a huge breakout. Many honestly thought we had one of the best 1-2 receiver punches in the entire league at that time. That offseason, Beane still double-dipped to replace a declining Cole Beasley in the slot... signing Jamison Crowder and drafting Khalil Shakir. Fast forward to the next offseason. Bills still have Diggs/Davis/Shakir. Most of us went into the draft talking about WR2 as one of our top needs, but at this point it was more about the future (not desperation). Things look good that someone will fall to us, and then the Top 4 receivers all go off the board in succession at 20-21-22-23. With the cupboard totally bare, Beane decides to go with Dalton Kincaid as the next best receiving weapon for the offense. We can criticize him for not trading up, but who knows if anyone would have been willing to make a deal. Going into the 2024 offseason, the Bills were planning to let Davis walk. They immediately signed Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins as potential replacements at the #2 spot. And most felt they would go after a WR in the draft (as they eventually did with Keon Coleman). But things really didn't go off the rails until they got side-swiped by Diggs and were forced to trade him. Don't forget this was weeks after the start of free agency, when it was too late for Beane to properly address the loss. Based on the cap implications, it's pretty clear they were forced to get rid of him at least a year earlier than planned. And despite this, the Bills finished #1 in scoring and had the best statistical offense in team history.

There are elements of both luck and skill. But it's no coincidence that some GMs (Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens) are consistently finding good players at the back-end of the draft, and others (Jets, Browns) keep picking busts at the very top. Beane was fortunate to land a generational QB with his first draft pick ever. It has made everything after it just a little bit easier. But he still had to cleverly maneuver his way up the draft board and into the Top 10 to get him, without sacrificing a fortune or the team's future. He also had to put in the work to know Josh Allen was the guy, when lots of others believed it should have been Josh Rosen. Anyone who was here during the Tom Donahoe, Marv Levy, Buddy Nix years knows the truth. Those guys didn't just have bad luck. They consistently made poor decisions about positional value, cap management, how talent fit on the roster... along with just simply picking bad players. As I've said before. Beane isn't in the top tier of GMs with Howie Roseman, Brett Veach or Eric DeCosta. But he is in the next group, and probably in the Top 5 across the NFL. Even when he makes mistakes, they usually aren't totally catastrophic. And he usually balances them out with smart decisions elsewhere. For example... many would say that his worst high draft pick so far is Kaiir Elam. But he also managed to offset that error by finding Christian Benford in the 5th Round.

This is exactly the point. The Bills currently have the best QB in the NFL (or close to it), one of the best O-Lines in football and a Top 5-10 running back room. Yes, we could stand to upgrade the WR corps. Beane said so himself. But it's not like he's completely ignored that aspect of the team. Our top draft picks in 2023-2024 were both pass catchers, and our top free agents the last two offseasons were also receivers. This offense finished #1 in scoring last year, with very close to the same group of WRs. In the playoff loss against Kansas City, our offense scored 29 points against a team that only allowed an average of 19 during the season. They did very good against one of the best units in the NFL. On the other side, our defense allowed Kansas City to have its best scoring game of the entire season. They once again struggled to get pressure, cover receivers and make third-down stops. It could be argued that we allowed the Chiefs to have their best games during 2023 and 2021 as well... and for the exact same reasons. They have played poorly against a group that has been mediocre against almost everyone else. At this point, it should be painfully clear what is holding the Bills back from taking the next step.

People keep trying to figure out "THE" reason why Sanders dropped so far this weekend. In reality, it was a combination of factors. 1. All the Top 5 talk during the college season was total media hype. I follow dozens of different draft outlets. And once people started diving into film and talking to scouts about Sanders, it became clear that most evaluators saw him as a late-1st/early 2nd round talent. 2. While QBs are often over-drafted because of the position, it's also common for guys in that range to drop. Mostly due to the scarcity of starting jobs around the NFL. Examples like Jimmy Clausen, Brady Quinn, Geno Smith and Malik Willis. 3. Out of the 32 teams, there were only about 7 who could realistically have been considering Sanders with an early pick. And out of that group, the Saints still have hope in Derek Carr playing this season, the Seahawks signed Sam Darnold, the Raiders signed Geno Smith, the Jets signed Justin Fields and there have been rumors for months about Aaron Rodgers planning to sign with the Steelers. 4. Deion Sanders publicly stated that he would "pull an Eli" if his sons were drafted by a team he didn't want them to play for. Did he tell these teams beforehand not to pick his kids? Or were these teams left to speculate they could be potentially wasting a draft selection? Either way, it was a dumb thing to say. 5. While other prospects were eager to show-off their skills to scouts and GMs, Sanders basically refused to work-out for anyone during the draft process. This was another poor decision. 6. Teams are looking for a certain kind of leadership quality when it comes to the QB position. Listen to how the Titans talk about Cam Ward. It's not just about his physical skills. The diva thing didn't effect Deion so much, because he was a cornerback. That kind of personality doesn't fly when you are supposed to be the head of the entire team. 7. There were lots of rumblings pre-draft about Sanders interviews going horribly bad. Coming across as entitled. Seeming less than interested in football. 8. The fact that he's made multi-millions of dollars before even entering the league is going to raise concerns about his drive and motivation. 9. The worries about Deion meddling are real. We are talking about a huge football name, who is also gunning for an NFL head coaching job someday. This has distraction written all over it. Add everything up, and you basically have a situation where the risk isn't worth the reward.

What people often forget is that 90-95% of professional athletes are one-dimensional. Wide Receivers are usually small and fast... OR... they are big and strong. Guys who are burners downfield often struggle with things like press coverage, blocking and contested catches. Guys who are bigger struggle with separation and getting open quickly. The extremely small percentage of players who are physically blessed with BOTH skills are drafted very high, and aren't going to be available where we usually pick. By the time you get to the mid/late 20s of the 1st Round, most of the guys left on the board are one or the other. When given a choice, the Bills simply don't value speed at the WR as highly as other teams. They want a guy who is going to also contribute in the running game and Red Zone WAY more than someone who is going to draw an extra safety away deep downfield. I'm sure they wouldn't mind having someone like Xavier Worthy on the roster. But other teams (like KC) are always going to value that skillset higher, so they often get snatched-up before Beane would consider drafting them.

Everyone would have liked to see a WR in the first three rounds. But everyone also wanted to see a CB, DT and Edge in the first three rounds. Four positions to address in only three picks. Once we got to Day 3, I'm not sure anyone was available who would have moved the needle at receiver. Last year, the Bills had (statistically) the best offense in the history of the franchise. That includes the legendary K-Gun/No-Huddle 90's teams. The only pieces we lost were Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper. Neither of whom had huge production, at least in the numbers. I'm not as high on Josh Palmer as some people, but I think he should do fine in replacing Hollins. We could always still bring back Cooper, since he's still sitting out there as a Free Agent. It's still possible for us to swing a trade. Not sure it's really something worth freaking out about right now. Last year we started the season with some issues, and then swung a trade mid-season.

Browns/Jags trade was the only big surprise. So many were saying this draft was a total mystery, and nobody had ANY IDEA what was going to happen. Outside of swapping the team names at #2 and #5, the first 8-9 picks were pretty much on-point with the majority of mock drafts. I think most had Tyler Warren going as the first TE and Jalon Walker as the next DE, but nothing else was really out of line. There wasn't a huge difference in talent outside of the Top 10, so guys like Kenneth Grant could have gone anywhere in there. Grey Zabel was maybe the biggest reach. Will Johnson was the biggest faller, although I saw many people calling his drop weeks ago due to the injury. Lots of signs that Sanders was going to fall out of the 1st Round too, and that Dart had overtaken him as #2. Some were in denial and just didn't want to believe it. Teams are looking for a particular kind of personality and leadership vibe at the QB position, especially with the risk involved taking one in the 1st Round.

Had the CB options correct. Had the Giants trading back into the 1st Round. I would be curious if there were any discussions about us making a similar trade with New York.

After watching the previous 8 drafts, it's pretty clear how Brandon Beane operates. He zeroes in on our biggest need. If options on his board are dwindling down, he will attempt a small trade-up of maybe 5-10 slots. If he's got a bunch of prospects rated about the same, he will consider moving down - but only enough where he can still get one of them (see Keon Coleman last year). The only year that our 1st Round Pick wasn't completely obvious was in 2023. That year WR was our biggest need. Things looked to be falling our way, and then suddenly the four top receivers went 20, 21, 22, 23... leaving the cupboard completely bare. So Beane pivoted to Dalton Kincaid, which was about the closest thing left as a top receiving weapon for the offense. For the last month, it's been very clear that CB was our top need. Somehow people talked themselves into believing the Tre White signing would change that. Not sure why. They had multiple CBs in for visits that were expected to go late 1st/early 2nd. Hairston was one of them, along with Trey Amos, Shavon Revel and Benjamin Morrison. Barring some kind of weird run on the position or somebody really crazy dropping, one of those guys was always going to be the pick.

I want at least one Pro-Bowl impact player from this draft, preferably along the D-Line. Even if we have to trade-up in order to get one. In my opinion, the guy who best fits that bill (who is also somewhat realistic for us to land) is Kenneth Grant. If he makes it to around Pick 20-21, I think it would be worth exploring trade options to go up and grab him. Draft history tells me that Beane usually prefers quantity (more picks) over quality (higher picks). He also likes filling all of his primary holes as early in the draft as possible. Need over BPA. I think his primary goal is to land a potential CB2 and future starting DT. Next priorities are Edge Rusher, speed WR, depth at LB and a FS more in the mold of Micah Hyde (most of our current guys are better at SS)... but he will save those for late Day 2 or Day 3. Malaki Stark is suddenly a popular mock pick, and he might be the BPA at #30. But safety isn't a big enough need for Beane to use a 1st Round Pick on that position. Can't see it happening. The fact that he's called D-Line the deepest position in the draft could mean he feels comfortable waiting until Day 2 to get one. Signing Tre White shouldn't move the needle for anyone, based on how he played last season. CB is still our biggest need, and it's not a very deep class this year. My prediction is basically a repeat of last year (swapping out WR for CB). Bills fans eagerly wait until the late evening for Pick #30, only to find Beane has traded with the Giants and out of the 1st Round. Like WR in 2024, Beane has a handful of guys ranked about the same on his board. We ultimately choose the leftovers from amongst the guys who were in for visits: Maxwell Hairston, Shavon Revel, Trey Amos or Benjamin Morrison.

Probably. But you never know. I've seen Grant dropping into the 25-35 range in quite a few mocks. D-Line is pretty deep in this class and not everyone values the bigger guys (not sure we do either), so it's possible he could drop to us. The big hurdle is probably the Chargers, who need a DT and have his old coach. Amos is usually in the 35-45 range. Our first pick on Day 2 is at 56, thanks to the Stefon Diggs trade. Perfect place for a trade-up. We could probably move up 10-15 spots with one of our 4th Round picks. I've seen about 11-12 edge rushers ranked as 1st/2nd Round guys. Not unrealistic that someone we like lasts until 62. Rumors have been circling that Williams could be available in a trade. Would likely take a mid/late round pick, since he's also going to be a free agent soon. He's pretty much what we are missing in the passing game. The big issue is contract. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jameson-williams-posts-cryptic-message-on-social-media-possible-landing-spots-if-lions-trades-wr/ https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/jameson-williams-attends-lions-voluntary-workout Not sure if he's really available (or how much he would cost). But there has definitely been talk.

Here is my dream scenario for tonight. Round 1 = Kenneth Grant somehow falls to #30 Round 2 = Tre Amos (requires slight trade up to mid-40s) Round 2 = One of the dozen top edge rushers who happens to drop Round 4 = Trade for Jameson Williams from Detroit