mjt328

No so much. Like the Bills with Josh Allen, the Bengals struck gold by drafting the right QB. One of Joe Burrow's injuries also helped them luck into a prime draft slot, where they could draft Jamar Chase. But lucky breaks only last for so long. At some point, it comes back to the franchise making smart decisions. For a brief 1-2 season period, the Bengals did surpass the Bills as the AFC's #2 team. Hard to argue that point. But the Bengals shine at the top was very short-lived, because they have a terrible owner and crappy front office. The big difference between the Bills/Bengals is that once players started getting paid and vets started aging out, we were able to keep a competitive team together. They have not. Over the last few years, we lost Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse, Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. And we just kept right on rolling. Last season was our big test, and we passed. Our offense was better than ever. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been a downhill trajectory for the last two years. Their O-Line is really bad, and wasn't upgraded much in the offseason. Their running game hasn't been effective since Joe Mixon left. Their defense is terrible, and Trey Hendrickson is holding out. The situation with their top pick is a joke. Depth across the team isn't great either, which is why they can't seem to overcome injuries.

I said that if Cook wants to get paid early (meaning before the expiration of his current contract), then he needs to give the Bills some kind of incentive to do so. The cap on his open-market value right now is between $12-13 million per season, at the absolute maximum. That is when Cook is an unrestricted free agent, and there are bottom-feeder teams with $80 million in cap space bidding for his services. Considering that he's not even a 3-down player, I'm not completely sure he could even fetch that amount. Why would the Bills tear-up his rookie contract - where he's set to receive about $5.7 million, and then extend him for almost three times that amount... when they aren't even competing with another team? Because he's threatening to sit-out the offseason? The only reason Brandon Beane should even consider an extension at this point of the year, is if Cook is willing to give them a hometown discount to stay here.

Exactly. Some fans (and in the media) are totally forgetting the value/overpay portion of this situation. It's not just a pay or not pay debate. If reports are true about his contract demands being around $15 million per season, he's simply asking for way too much money from a Super Bowl contending team that is consistently tight against the salary cap. That amount would tie him with Derrick Henry as the 3rd-highest paid RB in the entire NFL (only behind Saquan Barkley and Christian McAffrey). It would put him above Jonathan Taylor as well. Last year, Josh Jacobs signed for $12 million per... only a season after winning the rushing title. I'm not sure James Cook can even argue to be in that tier, considering that he's not our 3rd-Down back (Ty Johnson) OR our primary short-yardage guy (Josh Allen). Not to mention the Bills have a talented 2nd-year guy (Ray Davis) waiting in the wings. Sorry... but if Cook wants an early extension, then he needs to make it financially worth it for the Bills and take a hometown discount. Less than $10 million per season if he wants a contract now. Even if he was a free agent at this very moment, I don't think he's getting close to $15 million on the open market. He has absolutely no leverage here. Holding out is just going to turn the fans against him, and give the front office the impression that he's not a team-first guy.

Some people will swear there is no such thing as injury prone... I'm not one of those people. Yes, sports are always going to have freak occurrences that happen due to bad luck. But just like athletes can be genetically gifted in strength, speed, agility, etc., they can also be more likely to pull/tear muscles, break bones, etc. This also gets worse with age and pre-existing injuries that start to compound. Bosa has proven over and over that he cannot stay healthy. For the first time in his career, he's got a fresh start outside of Los Angeles. He doesn't even make it through the first day of OTAs.

The Bills have historically also been a slow starter under Sean McDermott (with the exception of the Rams): - First half last year against the Cardinals - Losing to the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers/Achilles game - Steelers home opener With each passing year, I'm becoming less and less concerned about how the team starts the season. Barring significant injuries, I just can't see this team winning less than 11 games with this schedule. It's doubtful anyone really pushes them for the AFC East title. And even though homefield would be really nice, it's not anywhere near the top reason we keep losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs.

Bills should be heavy favorites in at least 9 of their games: NYJ and NE (both games), NO, ATL, CAR, PIT and CLE They should be moderate favorites in another 3 of their games: MIA (both), TB That leaves 5 remaining games as the toss-ups, which could probably go either way: BAL, KC, HOU, CIN, PHI Barring some catastrophic injuries or bad luck (or an AFC East opponent being way better than expected), we should be looking at an 11-12 win season at bare minimum. That would certainly be enough to win another division title. If the Bills can do a good job against their stronger opponents, finishing with 13-15 wins is definitely within reason.

Outside of all the stats and advance metrics, I'm just not seeing Kincaid as a dangerous weapon in our passing game. Hopefully that changes. But as of right now... He hasn't been a threat in the red zone. He hasn't been a threat downfield. He hasn't been a reliable target on third down. He hasn't been a producer of YAC on short passes. Ignore his drops. Give him a pass because of the injury. Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable. I'm still not seeing a guy that puts fear into the opposing defense. Even if he's not on a Pro Bowl level, Dawson Knox has proven to be superior in all of the above areas. Even though he's had some drop problems himself, Knox has also made some spectacular catches. He's a decent red zone threat, and can make plays downfield. And he's shown the ability to run people over to get extra yards after the catch. Kincaid has shown virtually nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick.

Players should always get at least 3 seasons in the NFL before making a judgment call on them. That said, Kincaid has been pretty underwhelming (at best) so far. Even before his mid-season injury. I keep hearing how impressive his route running is from film watchers. But if he's getting open a ton, our MVP quarterback isn't finding him. His draft report was all about hands, but he's had a big problem with drops... and I can't recall him making any impressive catches either. YAC isn't really a strength either (at least Dawson Knox can run people over). Blocking has always been a weakness. He needs a big season to quiet the doubters.

The Saints are going to do everything in their power to land Arch Manning. Obviously his grandfather Archie was the Saints quarterback for many years, and the Manning family is originally from that area.

No offense, but lots of Bills fans had that same feeling before the 2022 season. And lots of people had it late last year. There are also Jets fans online sharing clips of Justin Fields in shorts, getting excited how he's going to turn it all around. None of it means anything. The Buffalo Bills are one of the Top 5 most talented team in the NFL (as they have been for the past 4-5 years), so there is plenty of reason to be optimistic. But it's not going to be some magical sense of destiny. It's going to be when these players and this coaching staff can finally execute in the biggest moments.

Houston and Baltimore got us during a brief slump last year. We still almost came back and won the Houston game, and we got revenge against Baltimore in the playoffs. Nothing about the Texans really scares me. Historically we've done a good job slowing down Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry added a tough wrinkle and has always been rough for us. But we adjusted and made him less of a factor in our second matchup. Cincinnati has given us lots of trouble with Joe Burrow under center, mostly because he's fantastic at picking apart a soft zone defense. However, the Bills defense started sprinkling in more man-coverage last year, and I think they take another step in that direction this season. The Bengals defense and run game has also gone backwards since the last time we played. As I've continually said each of the last 3-4 seasons... the Bills have surpassed Kansas City in pure talent. And our roster is built in a favorable way to beat them. Regular season we've taken them down 4 straight years, even though the games were close. Not sure if it's just a mental thing, but we can't seem to get past them in the playoffs. Our strong defense can't get stops. It can't just be the Chiefs "turning it on" for the postseason either, because other opponents have been able to handle them. Based purely on scheme and personnel, the Ravens are probably still our toughest matchup. Based on the mental aspect that comes along with sports, the Chiefs are still the most difficult team for us to get past.

With all the draft information now available online, fans are becoming more and more aware of lower round guys. The more knowledgeable they become (I use that term loosely), the more they form opinions, and the more they get upset when GMs don't see it their way. The Bills aren't the only fanbase whining about getting the wrong guy in the 5th Round. Even Beane has said he "would have liked" to draft a receiver. The problem was that need and value never lined up. Before the draft, most would have had our top needs as CB and DT. And by a large margin. DE/Edge came in at a distant third. That would leave WR as our 4th biggest need at best... depending on how comfortable you are with the Safety room. Most people also felt this was a weak draft class at WR, and a very deep one on the D-Line. Beane also believed that. Not trying to be an apologist for Beane, but the most you can ask for a GM is to move around the board and address your biggest needs on Days 1-2. Most guys drafted after that are going to be backups anyway. The best way to hit on picks on Day 3 is by identifying sleepers who are undervalued. Not by hyper-focusing on a single position of need. The Bills scouts believed that Deone Walker would have been a 1st Round prospect if not for a back injury affecting his 2024 game film. Why would you pass that up, to take a flyer for a WR you really don't believe in?

He actually said "including the playoffs." When you average in those games, we were #1.

Oliver always seems to play better when he's got a solid 1-Tech playing next to him. He was considered a pretty big disappointment with Harrison Phillips (injured most of his final days here), Quinton Jefferson, Vernon Butler and Star Lotulelei as the other DT. Then he finally broke out when we signed Daquan Jones. He had a couple Pro-Bowl caliber seasons and signed an extension. Once Jones started seeing his play decline, Oliver disappeared again.

I don't think it's fair to say the Bills only made a move when their back was against the wall. Beane was totally on-top of the WR situation until the Diggs drama last spring. Go back to exactly 3 years ago (right after the 13 seconds game). The Bills had All-Pro level Stefon Diggs right in the prime of his career, still motivated and happy. Gabe Davis was coming off his 4 touchdown performance, and seemed primed for a huge breakout. Many honestly thought we had one of the best 1-2 receiver punches in the entire league at that time. That offseason, Beane still double-dipped to replace a declining Cole Beasley in the slot... signing Jamison Crowder and drafting Khalil Shakir. Fast forward to the next offseason. Bills still have Diggs/Davis/Shakir. Most of us went into the draft talking about WR2 as one of our top needs, but at this point it was more about the future (not desperation). Things look good that someone will fall to us, and then the Top 4 receivers all go off the board in succession at 20-21-22-23. With the cupboard totally bare, Beane decides to go with Dalton Kincaid as the next best receiving weapon for the offense. We can criticize him for not trading up, but who knows if anyone would have been willing to make a deal. Going into the 2024 offseason, the Bills were planning to let Davis walk. They immediately signed Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins as potential replacements at the #2 spot. And most felt they would go after a WR in the draft (as they eventually did with Keon Coleman). But things really didn't go off the rails until they got side-swiped by Diggs and were forced to trade him. Don't forget this was weeks after the start of free agency, when it was too late for Beane to properly address the loss. Based on the cap implications, it's pretty clear they were forced to get rid of him at least a year earlier than planned. And despite this, the Bills finished #1 in scoring and had the best statistical offense in team history.