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The Chiefs offense has been on a serious regression for almost 3 years now. From 2020-2022, they averaged 29.6, 28.2 and 29.2 points per game. Among the very tops in the league. From 2023-2024, they averaged 21.8 and 22.6 points per game. Around middle of the pack. And so far this year, they are at 19.0 after two games. Ranked 24th in the NFL. So we aren't talking about a "slump" they are in on that side of the ball. We are looking at 2+ year sample size of them being an average to below-average offense. Many football fans have been slow to recognize it, because of that team's reputation as a scoring powerhouse. They have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, so they must be great. And they keep winning games and even going to Super Bowls. But it's really the defense that has been carrying them for a while now. When the Chiefs were at their peak, defenses had to keep Tyreek Hill from killing them on the deep ball. The more defenders played back, the more space it would give for Travis Kelce to beat them underneath. After trading Hill in 2022, the Chiefs adjusted to a quicker and more efficient short passing attack. It worked extremely well for about one season. Then opponents started catching onto the fact they weren't really a deep threat team anymore. Kelce has also started slowing down and showing his age. Maybe they will get a spark when Rashee Rice comes back. But I wouldn't expect them to suddenly go back to being a Top 5 offense. This team is going to live and die on the defensive side of the ball, just like they have for the past few seasons. Last season, the Chiefs also got very lucky in several games. They were a toenail away from losing the the Ravens. A bad PI call away from losing to the Bengals. A blocked FG away from losing to the Broncos. A bad snap away from losing to the Raiders. Not to mention several other one-score games that could have shifted on a play or two. The record said 15-2, but it very easily could have been 10-6. At 0-2, the Chiefs still have very difficult games against the league's elite: Ravens, Lions and Bills. They still have another matchup with the Chargers. The Commanders, Texans, Broncos (x2) were playoff teams last season. The Colts started 2-0 and look pretty good. The Raiders (x2) usually give them a tough matchup. It's hard to count them out, but it's definitely not going to be an easy road.
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Two of our D-Line free agent upgrades (Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht) were suspended, and couldn't help. One of our D-Line free agent upgrades (Joey Bosa) lost contain on Jackson a few times, but settled in later. Two of our D-Line draft picks (TJ Sanders, Deone Walker) were playing in their very first game. The third (Landon Jackson) was inactive. Our middle linebacker (Terrell Bernard), top cornerback (Christian Benford) and two safeties (Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop) were injured a good chunk of training camp/preseason, and haven't gotten a chance to play together at all. Which leads to a lack of communication and knowing where each other will be on plays. Plus we had to throw a 6th Round rookie into one of the starting slots at cornerback, so I'm sure the coaching staff was focused on protecting him and making sure he wasn't put into really bad positions. Anyone who was expecting a huge improvement from the Defense in Week 1 probably hasn't been paying attention. This unit looks like one that will gradually improve as the season goes along, and hopefully peaks closer to playoff time.
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How much better is the Ravens team on paper than the Bills?
mjt328 replied to Lost's topic in The Stadium Wall
Derrick Henry is undoubtedly a better player than James Cook. But the difference is not an infinite chasm the Bills fall behind in. Let's not forget that Cook has made the Pro Bowl the last 2 years, and has the ability to go the distance on any play from scrimmage. He did just that on Sunday night. Defenses have to stack the box against Henry. But it's not like they can just ignore Cook. Football is not just about individual players standing out. It's about how ALL the pieces work together as a whole. The Bills don't get a lot of individual accolades, but they play together as a TEAM better than almost anyone in the NFL. And their depth is exceptional when injuries hit. So people can say all they want that we don't match-up with the Ravens in terms of talent. But last year we scored 30.9 points per game, and they scored 30.5. Meanwhile, we gave up 21.6 and they gave up 21.2 ppg. It's not just a two-game fluke. -
How much better is the Ravens team on paper than the Bills?
mjt328 replied to Lost's topic in The Stadium Wall
I understand the need for Bills/Ravens fans to argue over who is better. But at the end of the day, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are both incredible players who will almost certainly be 1st-ballot Hall of Famers in the future. Since coming into the league, they have similar records and similar team success. They have similar statistics and numbers. Jackson has two MVPs and Allen one. But both were close runners-up the years they didn't win. And both are struggling at the same thing in dethroning the Chiefs to win a ring. Jackson is faster and more elusive. Allen is bigger and more powerful. The play Jackson made Sunday night to escape the sack was only something he can do. But I've also seen Allen stiff-arm and truck over defenders for extra yardage, which is something only he can do. Both put defenses in impossible situations of defending both run/pass. Both can extend plays for almost infinite amounts of time. To me, there is one reason that Allen gets the edge. When defenses find a way to put the Ravens into situations where they absolutely must pass to win (which is very rare), Jackson's effectiveness does drop. In other words, Jackson can obviously pick apart a defense with his arm... but he usually needs the threat of his legs in order to consistently do that 30-40 times per game. Allen has proven more times that he can be dangerous from the pocket, even when teams aren't worried about his legs. -
How much better is the Ravens team on paper than the Bills?
mjt328 replied to Lost's topic in The Stadium Wall
I recently heard someone say that Jackson is a sports car, and Allen is a tank. Jackson is setting all the QB rushing records when it comes to yardage. Allen is setting all the QB rushing records when it comes to touchdowns. Side note: I realize that Jalen Hurts is also rocketing up the TD list, but the vast majority of his are coming from tush-push sneaks. -
How much better is the Ravens team on paper than the Bills?
mjt328 replied to Lost's topic in The Stadium Wall
The problem is not a talent disparity, but a scheme disparity. Buffalo's defense was constructed to be small and fast, so they are naturally going to struggle against big and powerful run games. It's actually funny when you think about it. This team was constructed with beating the Chiefs in mind. Yet we can't get past them in the playoffs to save our lives. The Ravens are easily the worst matchup for us in the entire NFL. And they have now lost two in a row to us, and are 0-2 against the Bills in the playoffs. -
How much better is the Ravens team on paper than the Bills?
mjt328 replied to Lost's topic in The Stadium Wall
QB: Josh Allen > Lamar Jackson RB: Derrick Henry > James Cook WR1: Zay Flowers > Keon Coleman WR2: Khalil Shakir > Rashod Bateman WR3: DeAndre Hopkins = Josh Palmer (only due to age) TE1: Mark Andrews > Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox LT: Ronnie Stanley = Dion Dawkins LG: David Edwards = Andrew Vorhees CR: Tyler Linderbaum > Connor McGovern RG: O'Cyrus Torrence > Daniel Faalele RT: Spencer Brown > Roger Rosengarten EDGE 1: Joey Bosa > Kyle Van Noy EDGE 2: Greg Rousseau > Odafe Oweh DT1: Nnamdi Madubuike > Ed Oliver DT2/3: Travis Jones/Broderick Washington > DaQuan Jones/T.J. Sanders MLB: Roquan Smith > Terrell Bernard OLB: Matt Milano > Teddye Buchanan CB1: Christian Benford = Marlon Humphrey CB2: Tre White = Jaire Alexander CB3: Taron Johnson > Nate Wiggins SS: Kyle Hamilton > Cole Bishop FS: Taylor Rapp > Malaki Starks With 22 starting spots, I would say the Bills are better at 9 spots, the Ravens are better at 8 spots. The other 5 spots I would consider a wash. -
Did the Chiefs win 13 seconds? Or did the Bills lose it? Did the Giants win Super Bowl XXV/Wide Right? Or did the Bills lose it? I've been watching this sport long enough to know it doesn't matter. We've been down this road too much to worry about what sport analysts think about our team. All that matters is who is hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. And if it takes our opponent "losing" for it to happen, then so be it.
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Yes, they look like the Lions. But it's not like there are thousands of unused color combinations they could go with. The Bills have to be some shade and combo of red, white, blue and maybe some grey/silver. Using the winter and snow theme is a fun idea, and a way to do something different. Our regular uniforms are already among the best in the NFL (especially the logo), and fans got the red helmets for the final game. Not sure why so many people want to complain.
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If you could take a dozen of the greatest NFL minds in the history of the game (all whom have passed away and know nothing about today's stars)... then put them in a room with just game film... and give them no other context about the players they are watching (Super Bowl rings, awards, stats, etc.).... then at the end of the day, I believe most would say Josh Allen was the best Quarterback in the NFL. Of course, I would probably have said the same thing about Peyton Manning against Tom Brady 15-20 years ago. The problem is, most people are going to factor the Super Bowl rings and head/head matchups in very heavily. And that's an area that Allen and Manning have both fallen very short in, when compared against Mahomes and Brady.
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DeWayne Carter would not really be a surprise at this point. The real question is whether another team liked him in the draft and jumps, or if we can just put him on the practice squad. Elijah Moore is probably less than a 50/50 shot to make the roster, and I think some people might be surprised. He's got athletic talent, but it can't seem to translate onto the football field. Longshot chance one of the vet tackles. DaQuan Jones or Larry Ogunjobi. Simply for the money savings. Then again, this staff does seem to like veteran leadership and that room is incredibly young. If Tyrell Shavers somehow gets cut, I'm never watching preseason again. It would be a sign the coaching staff has already made up its mind regardless of what happens in the games.
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Typical Brandon Beane: - Drafts bust on Day 1 or 2 - Trades bust for a 6th Round Pick - Totally nails 6th Round Pick
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I'm not the type of person that gets upset with negative opinions, or believes that fans are supposed to be overly optimistic. But trying to take a realistic/balanced look at this team, I'm just not sure how you think they have regressed. The offense is almost identical to last year's. The only real difference in the starting lineup is Josh Palmer instead of Amari Cooper (who had virtually no production with us). And all signs from training camp are that Keon Coleman has drastically improved from his rookie year. Then the starting defense has basically swapped Von Miller for Joey Bosa, and an old Rasul Douglas for an old Tre White. At safety, we are hoping that Cole Bishop is able to upgrade Damar Hamlin. Even if you assume that none of our rookies make an impact, or that Bishop sucks and we are forced to go back to Hamlin -- it's pretty much still the same Buffalo Bills team as last year. Same core staff. Same system. Same core players. And we don't really have any older players that we can worry about a significant regression in their play. Bottom line, the Buffalo Bills have been good enough to win the Super Bowl the last 4-5 years. There is every reason they will be good enough again this season. The only problem is that 4-5 other teams will also be good enough to win it, and we will need to get past them. Will it happen this year? Your guess is as good as mine.
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Does there need to be a rethinking of the basic D?
mjt328 replied to oldmanfan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Agreed. It makes the Bills defensive stats even worse when you consider they have the benefit of playing a weaker Wild Card opponent every season (Colts, Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers, Broncos), while the Chiefs usually get the bye and go straight to a top contender. No doubt, the Chiefs have definitely had some rough playoff games on defense. But they have also had some good ones against top offenses. McDermott's units have showed up twice against Lamar Jackson, but have done less than nothing in the playoffs against Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow. Maybe fans wouldn't be so critical if they actually did SOMETHING positive in any of those games. Nothing crazy. Maybe some pressure on the QB once in a while. Maybe a forced punt here and there. Or how about a turnover? -
Yeah. Listening to the Sal clip, it definitely doesn't sound like a really serious injury. Tre White was apparently walking all over the stadium long after getting hurt, and then standing to watch the rest of practice. Getting "carted to the locker room" was basically him hitching a ride at the end... in the passenger seat... not in the back with his foot/leg elevated. Now that doesn't mean he won't miss some time. We are 16 days from the season opener.