2003Contenders
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Posts posted by 2003Contenders
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14 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:
Don’t really see too many changes to be honest.
Offense:Josh Allen-stays
Cook- stays
Kincaid, Knox - stays
Dawkins - stays
McGovern - stays
Morse - ?
Torrence - Stays
Spencer Brown- stays
Diggs- stays (his contract won’t allow him to be cut or moved)
Shakir- stays
There wil be changes in the WR room for sure. Need to find a dynamic player to play next to Diggs. More than likely that’s coming through the draft.
Defense:
Oliver-stays
Daquon Jones- ??
Greg Rousseau- stays
Von Miller - stays (contract won’t allow him to be moved)
Floyd, AJ Epenesa ( Floyd is going to be expensive and he’s an older player I’d let him walk and try to work a deal with AJ.) One of them is definitely leaving for sure.
Bernard- stays
Milano- stays
Dodson/Spector - stays
Rasual Douglas -stays
Benfrod- stays
Taron Johnson - stays
Tre White -??? Tough decision here. I’d let him walk but I don’t think McDermott will cut ties with him. More than likely I think they’ll restructure his contract and see how he is coming off the injury.
Poyer/Hyde - I think one of them is gone for sure. Hyde probably being the odd man out. Poyer still a productive player
As far as the defense goes I don’t really see many changes there either. They have a major need at defensive end and safety. I think they only significant changes will see is at safety. This offseason will be more about adding depth and praying to the heavens that our core guys can stay healthy!!
I agree with most of this -- just not that Diggs and Miller necessarily have to stay based on their contracts. There are ways to rework other contracts (Josh's, Dawkins, etc) that could put us in the position of ridding us of those other inflated contracts. In Von's case (unless he suddenly finds the fountain of youth and is 100% healthy) I think that is a necessity. In Diggs' case I am still on the fence. What caused the serious regression in the 2nd half of the season? Evolving role in Brady's offense? Diminished skills? Undisclosed injury? Off-field distraction? Depending on what that root cause was, would determine what I would want to do with him heading into 2024.
With or without Diggs, in addition to investing at least one high draft pick on a WR, I would be inclined to bring in at least one mid-priced free agent WR (like Beane did back in 2019 with Beasley and Brown) rather than scrap-heap guys like Beane has thrown darts at the last few seasons. Obviously we can't afford a high-priced guy like Higgins or Evans. But what about someone like Marquise Brown, Darnell Mooney, Curtis Samuel, or Josh Reynolds? Mooney could be a real sleeper going from the garbage he has had in Chicago to #17, and he is just 2 seasons removed from a 1,000-yard season.
Bottom line, Beane needs to hit the jackpot on some of the draft picks come April, including some late-round gems.
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IMHO the absolute worst play of the game was one that will likely be forgotten in the grand scheme of things -- but changed the trajectory of a game where both defenses were having trouble stopping both offenses. Ironically NEITHER team would score again after this play.
That play came on the 1st offensive drive of the 4th quarter, right after the Chiefs had just taken a 27-24 lead. On first down, Josh takes it 8 yards to set up 2nd and 2. That is a great position to be in for the offense. Either you run a high percentage play to get the 1st down -- or you run play-action to try for a big play and even if you don't convert it, you come back with a favorable 3rd and short. What do they do instead? They call a draw to Cook from shotgun -- and he gets blown up in the backfield for a 3 yard loss. Now, instead of a 1st down or 3rd and short it is 3rd and 5, which is no longer a gimme, and the next play results in a batted pass. The next play after that, of course was the failed punt attempt.
The Bills, of course, get lucky and get the ball back after the Hartman fumble. So what is the first play called as the Bills try to regain momentum? You guessed it, another draw to Cook from shotgun, resulting in a 4-yard loss. After a short screen to Shakir, the 3rd down-play was the deep shot to Sherfield that he dropped. So instead of seizing the momentum here, they go three-and-out and punt the ball away.
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2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:
The Chiefs defense is outstanding which I am not sure is understood enough. This game was lost on defense, if you told me the BIlls will run the ball effectively, score 24 points and have no turnovers I would have taken that. Allowing those guys to score 27 in your house with a limited number of drives was the issue. We can make the injury excuse but to me that is all it is, you have to scheme it up and fine a way.
This.
The Vegas line had it at 2.5 for the Bills and and over-under of 45.5. That means that the Vegas experts implied a 24-21.5 game. So the offense held up to their end of the bargain. The defense gave up 5.5 points than projected.
While it can't be denied that the defense (secondary and LBers) was a MASH unit, the DL was pretty much healthy -- and with 10 available players on that unit, they should have been fresh all game. With the Bills offense dominating time of possession that is even more the case. So the real story -- beyond everything else that happened -- is why the DL with so much invested in it was unable to pick up the slack and at least apply some pressure on Mahomes, let alone bottle up Pacheco. And any game plan (regardless of injuries) that allowed Kelce to run as wide open as he did, needs to be highly scrutinized.
Also, credit where it is due, the Chiefs played very well. Their WRs (aside from Rice) played terribly all season -- and even in the playoffs against Miami had a number of key drops that resulted in stalled drives leading to FGs rather than TDs. Against the Bills last night, however, I do not recall a single dropped pass on the part of KC. Of course, the Bills had a number of huge ones.
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Yea, with the depleted defense and lack of speed at LB there is no way they would have been able to contain Lamar as they have historically done in the past. Imagine LJ doing what Mahomes did on that one long run to start the 2nd half all game long! Speaking of that, it was sad how Douglas just watched Mahomes run right by him without even trying to make a tackle. In fact, Douglas looked out-of-sorts all game long; probably would have been better to let him sit out another week and rolled the dice with Elam.
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11 hours ago, BananaB said:
It’s definitely a possibility. Shakir catches just about everything
I will have to see greater detail on the All-22, but the crossing route to Diggs also may not have been as open as it first appeared. There was a corner lurking right behind Diggs, possibly bating Josh into that throw. Remember, just a few minutes before there was a near-pick 6 jump route on an attempted pass to Diggs.
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9 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:
At least two of those three long passes are caught by almost any competent NFL WR. Did you see the catch the KC WR made on the long pass to kick off the 3rd quarter which was exactly the same pay that Sherfield couldn't make? And I don't want to hear a peep from Diggs or his brother in the off season. NOT A FREAKING WORD.
Bingo! The difference in the game? Mahomes' much-maligned receivers caught virtually every catchable pass thrown to them -- Josh's did not.
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Note also that against both Miami and Pittsburgh they blitzed at a heavy rate (over 50%). It is hard to get the ball downfield in those situations.
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10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
The Chiefs won't be trotting out the awful secondary that Davis took advantage of in that game... They might have the best CB duo in the league and they're all coached extremely well. I think this will need to be another Kincaid/Shakir game, with a big helping of Allen's legs. And that would be true whether Davis was playing or not.
Agreed -- and it may be time to add some wrinkles/gadget plays with Harty and see if he can get some decent YAC.
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11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
Do you think this could be a Gabe game if he plays?
One thing I just realized... when we played against the Chiefs earlier this season (Week 14), that was part of that series of games when Gabe went 3 out of 4 (the exception being the Philly game) without catching a single pass. It will be interesting to see what his role would be if he is indeed healthy against a team that he has had success against in the past.
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Interesting... wonder if he got upset about not being activated for yesterday's game and started making waves?
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I think it serves also to provide reminders in late-game key situations, especially when you do have back-ups in there. Things like:
"There are only 10 seconds left and they have no timeouts. Make a tackle in the field of play and the game is over!"
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10 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:
I’d take advantage of their LBs which are the weak point, and Spags always has at least 1, often 2 spies on Allen. There has to be a way to exploit that to our advantage.
I’d run the ball down their throats, play ball control and keep Mahomes off the field. Take shots when they are available but that’s not our bread and butter.
Cook, Kincaid, and Shakir should feast over the middle. That’s where we win.
W.
Well, there is a certain WR who shall remain unnamed who legend has it did take it deep against the Chiefs multiple times the last time these 2 teams met in the playoffs to the tune of 200+ yards and 4 TDs. Whether or not he is healthy enough to go remains to be seen.
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Add also that the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) have not exactly lit it up in the playoffs. I believe they have one win to their credit.
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Kudos to a guy who had a career year the season AFTER signing a big contract!
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The crazy thing is that when this happened last time it was Josh who was penalized for shoving the creep after the play. Wait until Wilkins does this to everyone's fair-haired-boy Mahomes. Bet the outrage ensues then.
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15 hours ago, sven233 said:
Admittedly, I haven't gone back and watched the All 22 yet, but he wasn't really noticeable out there last night. But, in all fairness to Von, none of our pass rushers really ever got a sniff of Tua. There were a couple of chances here and there, but it was our DEs using their length to alter the passing lanes making it difficult for Tua to throw the ball where he wanted to on a few occasions. But in terms of rushing the passer, nobody really did that well because the ball was coming out fast. Tua is a 1 read guy a lot of the time. Their offense is schemed up and he basically knows where he is going with the ball before it is even snapped. If you don't take away his first read, the ball is out before the rushers have a chance. Their offense is pretty unique in that way. So, until I get a chance to go through the film a little more thoroughly, I am not going to rag on Von when I really don't remember too many other rushers making plays either.
Add also that the Dolphins added new wrinkles with all of the misdirection on the running plays, and I think the DL was instructed to hang back a bit and not over-pursue.
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8 hours ago, The Red King said:
In general, it may seem a lateral move. But Brady's stuck with Dorsey's system this season. The biggest change I've noticed is that Brady actually makes adjustments, while Dorsey would keep shotgun-drawing into a brick wall.
Also, I think a huge difference is in demeanor and the way the respective coaches' have handled the players.
I always attributed Josh's being "dialed back" under Dorsey to mandates from McD about not putting the ball in harm's way, etc. Same with Cook's benching for the first half of the Denver game because of the fumble on the first offensive play of the game. However, in the Jets game (Brady's first game as OC) we hear Josh exclaim, "I'm back!" -- and in all the games since it really does seem like Josh has been playing like his old self (both the good and the bad, as we saw in the Miami game). Also a couple of weeks back, the broadcasters alluded to a comment from Cook regarding Brady: Cook said was relieved not to have been "disciplined" after dropping that potential TD pass against Philly. Same thing Sunday night, even after dropping the TD pass against Miami, Brady showed faith in going back to Cook. By implication, it would seem that benching Cook in the Denver game was Dorsey's doing, not McD's.
It just seems like under Dorsey, the players were possibly over-coached to the point of worrying too much about making mistakes -- whereas under Brady they have been much more loose and comfortable.
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Davis does many things well -- he is physical in the run game (remember, he received a game ball in the Dallas game even though he did not catch a pass). I just wish he was more reliable in terms of his route running and pass catching.
I actually do hope that he is healthy enough to play against Pittsburgh -- because, due to the bad weather and Pittsburgh's tough defense, Davis would definitely make a big impact in a ball-control offense sort of day.
Speaking of Pittsburgh, for years I have thought that what the Bills REALLY need is a clone of Hines Ward. A guy who is physical and can do all those things that Davis does do well -- but at the same time has great hands and runs precise routes.
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He should be a big target for Josh on Sunday considering the weather and the fact that the Steelers' weakness on defense is with their LBs.
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14 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:
Banged Up Bills posted video of Gabes injury. Most likely a knee contusion with swelling from falling directly onto it in the endzone. Better than anything else that could happen with the knee.
For all the righteous indignation about how poorly Gabe has been playing -- he DID have a career game the last time we played against Pittsburgh.
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This team is battle-tested and has a 4-1 record against playoff teams with the only loss coming with the aid of horrific officiating against Philly.
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By far and large O'Cyrus has played well this season. He may be hitting a bit of a "rookie wall", but I believe that it is best to let him work through it. For as much as I have historically complained about the OL and the front office not investing enough into it, I will say that I have been happily surprised by just how effective (and healthy) they have been this year. Even Spencer Brown is rounding into shape finally -- and I thought he played a pretty good game last night. Even for that series or two when Dawkins was getting his hand attended to, Van Demark filled in seemingly without issue.
For the most part, Josh had plenty of time in the pocket last night. Other than the sack/strip/FR by Wilkins, where O'Cyrus was soundly beaten (by a top tier DT), Josh was only primarily pressured when Miami went all-out with the blitz.
I will say that the last few games, defenses have done a good job with stunts and bringing extra rushers up the middle, which DCs have discovered makes Josh more mortal. The entire interior of the line (beginning with Morse) needs to do a better job communicating and setting the necessary protections. And, Josh needs to do a better job recognizing when the pressure is coming too -- and better protect the ball. That is especially important with a high-pressure team like Pittsburgh coming to town.
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Something that I just realized -- the Bills record over the last 2 seasons when Von is NOT on the field is exemplary.
Recall that he went down in the Detroit game last season -- and the Bills won every regular season game after that. This year he was inactive for the first four games -- and the only one of those games the Bills lost was the Jets game in which the defense played well -- and we lost because Josh was careless with the football. In fact, when Von was inserted this season (against the Jags) that is when our of our troubles began.
Interesting.
Not sure how much of this is coincidence, the surrounding players stepping it up knowing that he is out, changes to defense alignment, etc. He did have some key plays last season -- but has been mostly invisible this season.
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TEs historically have a pretty big learning curve because of the variety of things they are asked to do both in terms of protections as well as the passing game. It is a bit unfair to compare Kincaid to LaPorta given that LaPorta has had an out-of-this-world rookie season. All things considered, Kincaid has had a fine rookie season with 66 receptions for 589 yards.
His 66 receptions rank 8th in the league for TEs. He caught 81.48% of his targets, which ranks ahead of all the big-time TEs such as Engram(80%), McBride (78%), Likely (77.78%), Kelce (76.86%), Hockenson (74.8%), Andrews (73.77%), Goedert (73.42%), Kittle (72.22%), and LaPorta (71.68%). So he is doing a good job catching the ball. It's not his fault that the goons that design the plays for the Bills are not placing him in a position to be more productive (just 2 TDs).
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McDermott - Excuses, Valid but concerning
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Good post.
I was one of those who was starting to believe that it was time to bring an end to the McDermott era when we were 6-6 and lost to the Eagles after some questionable decisions. Then the team went 5-0 to end the season, beating some good teams in the process. Hard to imagine wanting to fire a head coach that oversaw such a closeout to gain the #2 overall seed in the the AFC, when they were on the outside looking in just 5 weeks before.
And it is also hard for me to lay much blame at the feet of McDermott for what went down Sunday against the Chiefs. In terms of coaching decisions, I suppose you could fault him for approving the fake punt -- but that did not cost the Bills the game given that they were fortunate to get the ball back after the fumble. Otherwise, I thought he did a good job with clock management, challenges, and having the team prepared (given the circumstances).
In fact, there have been numerous posts about what cost the Bills that game -- missed FG, critical dropped passes, questions about the 2nd an 9 play after the 2:00 warning, depleted defense, etc. Again, hard to blame McD for any of those.
How about this? Maybe the Chiefs deserve some credit for playing out of their minds on Sunday! Their receivers, who had been sub par pretty much the whole season, caught every catchable pass thrown their way. Their OL, playing on the road in a hostile setting against a healthy Buffalo DL (the one part of the defense that was healthy), was spectacular allowing almost no pressure whatsoever against Mahomes. When their own defense needed to clamp down in the 4th quarter, they did -- adjusting the stop Cook and the running game that had been carving them up the first 3 quarters.