2003Contenders
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Just some random thoughts and why no one should be "haunted" about that trade back in 2017.
First and foremost, even if the Bills had stayed at 10, they were not drafting Mahomes. Whaley was on the way out and the new regime did not want to entrust him with making the pick at QB. (Reportedly Whaley was enamored with Watson, whereas the Pegulas loved Mahomes.) When the Bills were on the clock at 10 they reportedly were prepared to draft Lattimore if the trade had not materialized.
Mahomes is a generational talent -- but he had the luxury of having a red shirt year sitting behind a professional veteran in Alex Smith. He was also blessed with one of the all time great play callers in Andy Reid as his head coach and a very good supporting cast. I do wonder what trajectory his career would have taken on if he had played on the same Bills squad that Josh did in 2018 with no mentor at QB, a horrific OL and garbage at WR?
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11 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:
a bit random..... did Buff run a 3-4 early Dareus years? Im leaning towards no but cant remember/kinda young to been paying attention to def fronts
Yes and no...
The chronology is that Jauron ran his version of the Tampa 2 with a base 4-3, but when Chan Gailey came aboard in 2010 he wanted to install a 3-4 scheme. Of course, he just wanted to run the offense himself, so brought in an underwhelming George Edwards (whom Gailey admitted was not a "household name") to run the defense. Buddy and Chan drafted Torell Troupe (a few spots in front of Gronk) to serve as their NT. He never panned out. A year later Dareus was drafted #3 overall with Edwards still running a failed 3-4 defense. Dareus was part of the rotation at NT.
Edwards was fired by the end of the season and Dave Wanstedt took over in 2012. He tried running both 3-4 and (mostly) 4-3 packages but neither worked successfully. Even with Mario Williams freshly signed, DW was surprisingly terrible as the DC. Marrone came along in 2013 and hired two very good DCs during his two years here, Pettine and Schwartz -- both of whom ran a 4-3 and got the best out of Dareus.
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Dick Jauron was somewhat underrated as the Bills head coach from 2006-2009.
Yes, he had his shortcomings and could never get past Brady/BB and the Patriots. But...
1. During his tenure, the Bills roster was woeful in the talent department.
2. Managed to get to 7-9 with JP Losman at QB -- and the Bills were in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season.
3. 2007 team was injury riddled with a then record # of guys on IR. Still went with 7-9 with Losman and Edwards at QB.
4. Got off to a hot 4-0 start before Edwards got his his brain scrambled in Arizona. Edwards (and the team) never psychologically recovered.
Again, not suggesting he was a great coach (still shudder at "It's hard to win in the NFL") -- just that he did a much better job of playing the hand he was dealt than many remember.
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3 minutes ago, GreggTX said:
I will be writing off any notion of winning a SB if we blow a 1st round pick on a LB. There's plenty of LB talent to be had on day 2.
This is my take as well. Also, I suspect that there will be some disagreement in the war room regarding the various LB options. Do they go high floor (Campbell) -- or high ceiling (Sanders, Simpson)?
What I can see them doing is taking a WR or OL at 27 and waiting on LB until the 2nd -- but possibly panicking a bit and trading up a few spots to get the LB they settle on.
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A few other thoughts...
1. The Chiefs' decision to part ways with Hill was partially $ based but team dynamics also played a role. Hill had become a head case and a major distraction to the team.
2. Reid is one of the all time great play callers in NFL history. I marvel when I watch Chiefs games and wonder "How are defenses allowing Kelce to get so wide open?" Some of that is due to the generational talent that Kelce is -- but a lot of it is also based on schemes to get him open.
3. Mahomes is great at buying time. Better, when he gets flushed from the pocket, there always seems to be a WR somewhere that has come back to bail him out.
I would love to see the Bills' receivers better coached up to provide Josh with multiple options when a play breaks down, like Reid's Chiefs WRs are.
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OK, I'll play along.
I get the mind-set that Allen is such a transitional QB that he makes all of his WRs better. Pretty much every receiver that has played with Allen has posted career-best numbers. In reality, what quality receiver has he ever had to throw the ball to BESIDES Diggs? Yes, Brown and Beasley posted quality numbers with Allen and the Bills -- but what they do after leaving the Bills? Nada -- both wound up on the trash heap and were available for free late last season.
Long story short, I don't think the Bills NEED an elite #2 to play opposite Diggs -- and the money spent on such a player would be better spent elsewhere, I believe. Of course, having a stud #2 would certainly help. They just need a reliable target who can haul in more than 50% of his targets (yes, I am talking to you Davis).
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While I absolutely agree that Josh needs to be careful and not absorb unnecessary shots, I do believe that it is in his nature to play the way he does. And honestly, if he starts doing things that are not natural for him, he could very well open himself up to injury -- rather than avoid it.
Let's remember that the elbow injuries that he has sustained came when he was in the pocket and from his blind side when protection broke down.
Solutions:
1. Improve the OL
2. Dial up plays that allow Josh to get the ball out of his hand quicker
3. Make use of check-downs
4. Be smarter about when it is time to throw the ball away
5. Get down or out of bounds when possible
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First, it starts at the top with Kraft giving BB unwavering and total control of the team -- and mostly staying out of his way to do what he needed to do. Anyone coming to the Patriots as a coach or player knew this going in -- and it makes a big difference not only from a continuity perspective but also from an accountability perspective when everyone knows who is in charge.
Then it is about a system that everyone on the team MUST buy into -- or be shown the door. Remember, for the introductions for their first Super Bowl they were simply introduced as "the team" refusing to be introduced individually.
And, while player-for-player they may not have had many superstars, they had hard-nosed, intelligent and versatile guys who were willing to do whatever it took to win -- even if the game plan called for different personnel game-in and game-out. In a way, this concept and approach reminds me a lot of Shula's 70's era Dolphins. They had that no-name defense loaded with lunch-pale guys who knew their role and limited their mistakes.
And then, of course, there was Brady who elevated the play of his supporting cast, was clutch in big games, and was obsessed with winning.
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BB indicated that the team is looking for a power back, which Singletary is not. To me that leaves the following options:
1. Davis or Hunt are about all that are left in free agency
2. Trade for Henry
3. Draft a big back in the middle rounds
I suppose with the RB market drying up the way it has and DS remaining unsigned, the Bills could be interested in bringing him back at a bargain price -- but I think they would still be looking for a power back, most likely in the draft in this situation.
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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:
Seems the Birdy is right
Great work, MAJBobby!
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Maybe the front office can land another guy who used to be a starter and is willing to take a step back and play behind Josh in hopes of resurrecting his career: Carson Wentz?
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Remember when the Bills FO took all Texas players off their draft boards? That is how we wound up with Maybin instead of Orakpo.
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That draft -- as bad as the Maybin pick was with the first pick -- was actually a nice primer for what the front office should be looking to do in THIS draft to bolster the OL. Spend a late 1st rounder on a solid interior lineman -- then combine a 3rd and 4th to move back into the 2nd round to grab another (Levitre in 2009).
They could do the same thing this time around -- and still maintain their own original 2nd round pick to grab a player at another position (WR, S, LB, etc.)
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1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Both sides of the ball failed hard that game. I'd say the Offense failed harder. That's all.
I think that is fair. Also, hard to take away very much from that game at all as the entire team was "off".
Still, third season in a row -- 4th if you count the 2nd-half meltdown against the Texans in 2019 -- where the team was eliminated from the playoffs with a poor showing by the defense.
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55 minutes ago, Gugny said:
I think it's more likely (and accurate) to say that the Dolphins (as a team and an organization) underachieved during Marino's tenure after getting to the Super Bowl.
And before anyone pokes fun at them or calls them out, this is exactly what we're seeing with the Bills and Josh Allen's tenure ... minus going to a Super Bowl.
That is a good point about the Dolphins under-achieving, largely because their front office let Marino down. That said, theirs did it in a different way than ours has with Allen. Miami did, in fact, surround Marino with top level WRs (the Marx brothers, etc.) and built a quality offensive line to protect him. Let's hope that Beane can make the right moves to fortify the OL to better protect Josh. And adding another quality WR (or 2) would not hurt.
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Yes. Tony Romo, who did Bills games multiple times during Josh's elbow injury pretty much stated this repeatedly: it may seem counterintuitive but the short "touch" passes place much more stress on the elbow than the downfield passes.
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Jackson (who desperately needs to hire a quality agent) has to get it through his head that the Browns deal with Watson was an aberration and is accepted as such around the league -- and should not be viewed in any way as some sort of "starting point" in negotiations.
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It's funny. At this time last year many of us were wanting the Bills to trade UP because the roster seemed so deep, and we just needed a couple of impact players at key positions. A year later we see that perhaps we overestimated the roster make-up -- and with the cap situation the Bills are in, there is unlikely to be much help gained from free agency.
Whether the team tries to trade up or down, I think they need to try to maximize picks in the first 3 rounds, as that is going to be the best shot at finding players that can contribute right away. If they see great value in the 2nd round, for example, maybe they trade down from the 1st and pick up an extra 3rd. With the offensive line being the greatest liability, you can normally find good players in the 2nd round, especially along the interior.
Another possibility, I would like to see the team do what they did a decade ago when they drafted Eric Wood late in the first -- and then combined a 3rd and 4th to move back into the late 2nd to take Levitre. Two solid interior linemen for the Bills. At the same time, they held onto their 2nd round pick and drafted Byrd there to play safety. If we can come away with 2 linemen like that coupled with the BAP in the 2nd round, I would be quite pleased.
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These lists are so subjective. Do you base it on physical talent? Accolades? Championships? Blazing trails? A combination?
It is also very difficult judging guys across different eras -- and different offensive schemes. Some (Bradshaw, Starr) were blessed with surrounding talent. Others... not so much.
Guys like Otto Graham (who won even more championships than Brady) and Johnny Unitas (who more or less defined the modern passing game) deserve to be considered.
While Dan Marino may have been the greatest PASSER who ever lived, I would not put him on a top 5 list. When it comes to Marino, I always thought of him in the same light that Jimmy Johnson once said when comparing Barry Sanders to E. Smith. He said that Barry may have been the greatest RUNNER because he was so dynamic with the ball in his hand. However, he said that Smith was the better RUNNING BACK because in addition to being a great runner, he was also great in pass protection, a quality receiver out of the backfield, and he knew when to lower his shoulder to get the tough few yards. In that vein I say Marino was arguably the greatest PASSER -- but his poor ball-handling skills, lack of mobility, and lack of post-season success places him further down the list as a great QUARTERBACK.
I also could never place Drew Brees on a list like this, although he posted insane numbers in his career. Yes, he was one of the most accurate QBs in NFL history, but he also thrived in good weather and dome conditions. I remember back in his 2nd (I believe) year in the league, the Chargers played us in Buffalo. He absolutely could NOT throw the ball in those conditions -- I am talking Chad Pennington level noodle-arm. The Chargers ending up benching him for Flutie in that game.
My top four would be (in no particular order)
J. Elway
J. Montana
P. Manning
T. Brady
Then it gets really difficult for me to figure out the 5th. I am leaning toward Unitas.
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There was a knee-jerk part of me after the game last week that said "it was just a bad day at the office" for the team. We routinely have one of those horrific games every year when the Bills get blown out by a team they should be able to handle. Last year it was the Colts. The year before, the Titans. Even dating back to the Kelly-era Bills we would have one of those games every year, usually get handled by a team like Pittsburgh or Kansas City. We did not have any such game this year (losing all 3 games in the regular season by 3 points or less). That is ... until it really mattered, in the playoffs.
But more careful inspection certainly shows the pattern of the defense coming up small in the playoffs. As many on here have pointed out, the game plan against the Bengals really was bad -- especially on defense, where DBs were playing a good 10 yards off the receivers, which allowed Burrow to get rid of the ball quickly. They should have known better after having just played the Bengals a few weeks before, and the Ravens had even provided a solid blueprint to beat Cinci in the Wildcard round. I know Frazier and McD have their preferred defensive scheme, but of they are going to be competitive against top teams, they are going to have to learn to be "multiple" and adapt based on the competition.
Offensively, everything starts with getting the OL corrected, Josh masked a number of those deficiencies with his off-radar escapability during the regular season. The Bengals made him feel uncomfortable from the start. In addition to correcting the protections, the receivers need to do a better job in "fire" situations. I notice that when Mahomes is in trouble there is almost always a receiver coming back to him as an outlet. In the Bills offense -- not so much.
Getting back to the Cinci game itself... as we know, these games are heavily dictated by emotion. I am not sure that the Bills ever quite recovered emotionally from the Hamlin injury. They got lucky the following week with 2 huge kick returns against the Pats -- and in the Wild Card round struggled to get past the Dolphins with a 3rd string QB. We saw yesterday what the Eagles were able to do against a 3rd string QB. To start the Divisional game the Bengals marched down the field and scored easily -- the Bills responded with a 3-and-out series, and the Bengals marched down the field and scored again to go 14-0. You could just see the body language on almost every player at that time (midway through the 1st quarter) -- they knew it was over.
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Call me crazy -- but given the cap issues ahead, I am not excited about spending tons of money on another receiver, when that money needs to be better spent on fortifying the lines.
Josh is one of those QBs who elevates the value of his receivers. Not saying the Bill should dumpster dive -- but I would rather spend wisely on a RELIABLE receiver who runs decent routes and CATCHES the ball rather than a perceived stud. Maybe a guy who has been in a lousy situation with a bad QB for his career -- or a young guy that is ready to bust out with Josh and the surrounding talent at WR/TE to help him.
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The grades are pretty consistent with many posters' thoughts that the LG and RT positions need to be upgraded in a significant way. Saffold has no business being on the team at all. At best, Brown needs to be a backup/swing tackle. Even though Morse graded out reasonably well, due to his age and concussion history, the team needs to seriously consider making long term plans at the Center position too.
The good news is that finding a solution at LG and RT should not break the bank as reinforcements can be found in free agency and the early-to-middle rounds of the draft. Additional prospects can also be found in the later rounds. However, the front office is going to need to do a better job in both pro and college scouting to avoid making Saffold-type errors again.
If I were the one making the decisions, I would move Bates back to LG, where he played well in the past. Then bring in a solid veteran (not a castoff like Quisenberry) to play RT and invest a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on someone who can play RG (AND pick up other interior options in FA as well). Should also draft a couple more linemen in the middle/late rounds for competition/depth too.
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One of the great myths of the Cinci game is that the Bills went crazy trying to throw the ball downfield and did not even try the run or implement underneath routes.
All season long the short passing game was an extension of their run game, and that happened last Sunday too. For example, both scoring drives were loaded with short gains, which is why both drives seemingly took FOREVER to complete (one of them ending with just a field goal).
The real issue is that the Bengals got plenty of YAC on their plays, whereas the Bills got very little. Quite simply the Bengals were more physical at the point of attack and executed much better than the Bills did.
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46 minutes ago, Success said:
A lot of great points in the OP - but I'd still list Frazier as one of the problems.
His defenses here have been ranked high the past 3 years - but all 3 years, they have folded when it counted. We couldn't stop KC 2 years in a row, and this past Sunday was a debacle for the D. It's a good point that they adjusted, but Cincy moved the ball at will all day, and I felt like they could have scored more if they had to.
I don't know enough about schemes - but the scheme we play consistently seems too vanilla, too soft. It seems like we're always playing D to try to protect a lead, instead of genuinely trying to turn a game.
I think about when we had Schwarz. Did we have more talent then? I don't really think so. But he put his mark on that D - you could look at their play, and call it a Schwarz D. And they could dictate a game.
We have enough talent to do that now, but we don't. It doesn't look like the coaching will change much, and that's disappointing. I like Frazier & I was glad they hired him initially, but I feel like he's holding us back now.
Well, I would say that the defense set the tone with Mario Williams (in his prime), K. Williams (in his prime), M. Dareus (back when he was seriously motivated), and an up-and-coming J. Hughes. All four of those guys were arguably pro bowlers -- and all 4 flirted with double-digit sacks. If we still had a front four like that now, I suspect that McD and Frazier would be able to do more with this defense.
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TSW Mock Draft 2.0 - Who should the Bills take at #59
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I guess I would go Mingo here. Honestly, I suspect that when the "run" starts in the middle of the round on the LBs that Beane would trade up a few spots (probably cost a 5th) to grab one of Campbell/Sanders/Simpson.