2003Contenders
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Given that his family lives (and apparently wants to stay) in Carolina, I would imagine his geographic preference would be Washington. That being the case, Seattle would seem to be his least inviting option.
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20 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:
There are tons of guys who show massive promise as a rookie or their 2nd year but aren't a high pick and waste their careers with no opportunities because they weren't drafted as high. Duck Hodges was better in practice than Mason Randolph but they played him even when it was obvious he was stinking up the joint.
Same was true between Trent and Losman, and RGIII and Cousins.
Do you really think Trent Green was better than Kurt Warner until his injury or that Eli Manning was better than Warner, or that Matt Leinart was better than Warner?
Facts are coaches are forced to play inferior players because the GMs and possibly coaches are forced to look smart with whom they drafted because they see a higher upside.
I've seen you post a bunch, you know this is true. Players rarely get a fair shake and teams are willing to lose rather than miss on QB to make their point. Whaley went so far to blow 2 1sts on Watkins to save his job to salvage EJ.
The 1st round is a grave yard of GMs careers wanting to be proved correct on the QB. Just ask Brian Billick was a great coach turned heel over Boller. GMs and coaches even destroy their QB roster to give the 1st rounder confidence they won't lose their job. I mean why in the world would you keep Peterman over McCarron?
A lot of QBs are never given a fair shake just because of where they are drafted.
This is a fair take.
The reality is that even as a Josh Allen doubter, you have to acknowledge that given the reality of what you stated above, the Bills will provide him with at least the next 2 years to sink or swim.
Bill Parcells always said that teams have a 4-year strategy when it comes to assessing highly drafted young QBs. Year 1: he is a rookie learning what it is like to be an NFL QB, so that season serves as a mulligan (assuming the talent flashes are there). Year 2: Signs of improvement need to show up. Year 3: He needs to show the ability to go out and win games. Year 4: You either have your Franchise QB or decide to move on.
By any measure, Josh Allen is well on track. Let's hope he continues the progression entering his 3rd season.
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I really am to the point where I trust the front office and their decision-making when it comes to the draft.
With Gore likely retiring/moving on, there is a hole to fill there, so it isn't as if this selection wouldn't fill a need. I agree that WR is a more pressing need -- but the WR position is supposed to be very deep in this year's draft, so they can probably land a good one in the 2nd round (and this front office likes trading up in the 2nd round). I suppose if the opportunity presents itself to draft the best RB in the draft to go along with a promising 2nd year RB (who frankly may not have the size to be a true workhorse), then I for one will not throw a fit.
Of course, what happens in free agency in a month or so could very well make all of these thoughts moot.
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Sammy wasn't a horrible player during his time in Buffalo. In fact, he had a promising rookie season -- and was quite effective when healthy.
The issue was that he had trouble staying healthy -- especially with chronic foot problems. When DW traded from 9 up to 4 (and in the process traded away the 2015 1st rounder and other draft capital) , he was hoping for a Julio Jones sort of player. While Sammy had his moments, he never developed into that kind of player. What's more, the team was not in the position (especially with lingering questions at the QB position) to invest so much in a single player -- even if he HAD been the stud WR the team was hoping he would be.
When the new regime came aboard back in 2017, they were looking to clean house and they were not invested in Sammy Watkins as they were not tied to the trade in any way. Also, Sammy was nearing the end of his rookie contract -- so the team was happy to get something in terms of compensation for him. They netted a 2nd rounder from the Rams.
Obviously that ship has sailed -- but truthfully, the offense could use a player with his skill-set to compliment Brown and Beasley.
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Yea, Howie Long was one of the best defensive players of his era and belongs in the Hall. That said, I do agree that his stature has been somewhat accentuated by his TV persona.
I remember a few years back, shortly after Reggie White passed away, one of the networks had a caller vote-in to identify the two greatest defensive linemen in the HoF. They had Long, Deacon Jones and Bruce Smith all on hand to state their cases. Long even seemed embarrassed to be campaigning against the likes of Deacon Jones (who MAY have been the all time sack leader if the stat had been recorded during his era) and Bruce (the official sack leader for a time, which is even more extraordinary when you realize that he played in a 3-4 defense most of his career). When the voting results came in, the winners were White and ... Howie. Bruce looked like he was going to cry...
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3 hours ago, Gambit said:
I mean which CB didn't get scored on all year? I will give u a hint seeing as I know u need it. It wasn't Gilmore...
Unless we count the playoffs, then I suppose nobody is the answer.
Tre didn't give up any TDs in the playoffs either. The Texans scored 2 TDs -- the first was on Watson's run. The second was on a swing pass to the RB in the backfield. That isn't to say that Tre played especially well late in the game when Hopkins exploded for some big catches, but he was kept out of the endzone.
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40 minutes ago, arcane said:
I may have missed an explanation as I haven't read every post here, but why does Chris Kelsay appear as often as he does? Just asking because I was a young fan when he was here, didn't understand much, and he always seemed fine to me.
I think it was a couple of things (neither of which were his fault):
1. Similar to why fans disiked D. Whitner, Kelsay was over-drafted. To make matters worse, Donahoe knew that the Steelers liked him, so he traded up into the 2nd round to get ahead of the Steelers to take him.
2. Related to the above, Donahoe over-sold the fans and media on Kelsay's abilities -- which inevitably led him to be a bit of a disappointment.
By all accounts Kelsay was a good guy and not a HORRIBLE player. He was strictly a role-player and not a difference-maker. Buddy Nix indicated as much when he signed him to a contract extension, referencing Kelsay as a "good -- not great player".
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35 minutes ago, Steptide said:
The thing that's always surprised me is that McDermott always credits Andy Reid as being a big influence/mentor to him, yet for 3 seasons we've seen a lack of focus on the offense. This upcoming draft really needs to focus on the offense. We need 2 more solid recievers that will be a part of this team for 5 years or longer. I think we're ok at tight end. Get some depth at o line in the later rounds and I think we'll be in pretty good shape for 2020
I hear ya, and I am sure that Reid was a major influence on McDermott's coaching style/philosophy. That said, the key difference is that Reid is an offensive-minded guy whereas McD has a defensive background. That undoubtedly plays a role in Reid's focus on the Offense as opposed to McD's focus on the Defense.
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Hmmm, no need to pay heavily for an OG in free agency this year. I think we were pretty good at those interior positions and just need to keep the guys we have. Now, fortifying the RT position is a different story (unless Ford makes great strides and doesn't have to play inside).
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25 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
That’s part of the reason I think a trade up for Jeudy is possible. If he lasts to the teens (which he probably won’t) the Bills will be on the phone. They say he’s as good of a route runner as they’ve ever graded at this point. To me that says “smallest learning curve” and “highest floor.” Receivers often take some time to adjust but Jeudy will enter the league ready to go.
22, a 3rd and 4th....something like that
Sounds about right. Regarding the positioning, this is pretty much the identical trade-up that the Bills made back in 2018 to get Edmunds (going from 22 to 16, I believe). That trade required the #3 (1st pick of the 3rd round) that we acquired from the Browns for Tyrod.
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56 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.
His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.
Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.
His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.
If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?
It's the QB, obviously.
It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.
We need to upgrade our offensive weapons. Allen needs to work on his game.
Both are true.
Bingo!
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29 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
This is a point I’ve been trying to make. The need a catchable pass stat because every drop isn’t the same. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Drew Brees throws a more catchable ball than Josh Allen.
No doubt. Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the most precise passers ever. But he wasn't always that way. In fact, there is a clear delineation between his days with the Chargers (his first 5 years in the league) and what he has been able to do with Sean Payton in New Orleans since then.
If we want to talk apples to apples, Brees completed less than 58% of his passes in 2 of his first 3 years in the league. His combined TD-INT ratio after those three seasons was 29-31. The Chargers thought so much of him after those first 3 years, that they pulled the trigger to acquire Phil Rivers in the 2004 draft. I remember seeing him first-hand back in 2002 against the Bledsoe Bills in Orchard Park; Brees absolutely could NOT physically throw the ball in those winds -- and Flutie came in off the bench to play for him.
If nothing else, I guess the Brees saga proves that Accuracy CAN improve over time (Brees has been no worse than 63% -- and usually near 70% -- every year since going to New Orleans).
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The Manning-Allen comparisons are silly. Aside from having similar records after 2 seasons, their style of play is in no way comparable.
Manning was groomed to be an NFL QB from the time he was a child and was maybe the most "sure thing" of any NFL prospect -- ever. The offense at Tennessee was built around him, and he would have been the no-doubt #1 overall pick if he had chosen to come out in the 1997 draft. He elected to stay for his senior year -- and was the no doubt #1 overall pick the following year. Manning was one of the most cerebral (from a football perspective) players to ever set foot on the field.
Even Josh Allen's biggest supporters recognized that he came into the league extremely raw. His first-round draft position was based on his great physical talent -- and potential. Josh's arm strength and mobility FAR surpass the natural talent that Manning possessed; however, after just two seasons in the league, Josh isn't even in the same stratosphere as Peyton Manning when it comes to X's and O's.
Josh is a bright kid and has a strong desire to get better, which I believe will continue to serve him well -- but trying to draw comparisons between him and arguably the QB with the greatest mind in NFL history is unfair.
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Like many have said, I did not have any issues with Roberts as the primary returner. He was a reliable professional back there, who made smart decisions with the ball -- and we always had complete confidence that he was not going to turn the ball over. I know he rarely had any big returns -- but some of that could be attributed to lackluster blocking. I remember a 2-3 game stretch in the middle of the season where it seemed like every kick was called back due to a penalty. I think that as the overall roster talent continues to improve (and become more consistent/stable), the Special Teams units we see on the field will also improve -- maybe back to the days when Bobby April was here and had say-so on the talent that was brought in.
While I do not have issue with the roster spot that Roberts occupies being strictly for returns (with an occasional appearance as a WR5 thrown in), the real issue is the presence of McKenzie/Foster/Roberts all active each week and filling in the WR3/4/5 spots. Adding Duke (who was only occasionally active) to that mix, I think what we come away with is that the McKenzie/Foster/Roberts/Foster foursome needs to be upgraded with 2-3 of those players replaced via the draft and/or free agency.
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What keeps getting lost in all of this is that if the Bills had stayed put at 10, they reportedly would not have drafted Mahomes anyway. They were prepared to take Lattimore there and had a provisional trade in place with the Chiefs that was finally cemented when the Chiefs agreed to throw in the 2017 3rd rounder in addition to the 2017 and 2018 1st rounders.
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Some of this may be based on recency bias -- that is, neither of them (especially Poyer) played especially well during the later part of the Houston game. Of course, the defense as a whole had numerous melt-downs.
That aside, during the course of the regular season, I felt like that Poyer-Hyde tandem was one one the best in the league.
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I have to admit that I do not get too caught up in pre-draft hype, as I do not pretend to have a fraction of the knowledge that the Bills' scouts and front office have -- and just hope that they get things right. That is to say that I never had a dog in the Allen-or-Rosen fight and merely hoped that the Bills picked the right one.
Say what you will, but Beane and his staff did their due diligence with that 2018 draft in regards to the QBs. I could be wrong, but I believe that for a variety of reasons, Josh Allen was the guy they came to a consensus on and would have taken him even if they had the #1 overall pick. That isn't to say that Allen has been or will be the top QB in that draft -- just that the Bills' brain trust believed that he was the right QB for them.
The prevailing belief about Rosen headed into the draft was that he had the highest floor of the various QB prospects and was the most pro-NFL ready of the bunch. The biggest knock on him consistently seemed to be personality-based (some compared him to Jay Cutler). There were some NFL scouts that whispered that perhaps the NFL was not the main goal for him as he had other aspirations (perhaps political in nature).
On draft night there were two things that stood out to me. The first was physical. When Rosen stepped onto the stage you could easily see the huge difference in his stature versus Josh Allen's -- compared to Allen's broad frame, Rosen looked almost frail in comparison. The second was Rosen's attitude and comments in post-draft interviews. Some guys (like Thurman Thomas and Tom Brady) are able to make perceived slights in the draft process as ammunition to embolden and motivate them. Rosen didn't come off as a guy that would use his fall in the draft is this way -- but, rather, came off to me as a whiner.
It is true that Rosen has been in some unenviable situations in Arizona and Miami. That said, he is a smart guy and throws a nice ball, so there is a place for him in the NFL (even as a backup) -- if he chooses to do the work on and off the field. From that perspective, contrary to his pre-draft analysis, maybe he could prove to be a late bloomer in the right situation a la Rich Gannon. However, if the pre-draft rumblings about his personality and real motivations are correct, his tenure in the NFL will be short-lived.
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Wilson came into the league a much more polished passer than Josh. He was also a couple of years older -- and more mature. Wilson also joined a team that was pretty well formulated and had recently made playoff runs with a fantastic defense and solid running game. In fact, I would say that the Seahawks team that Wilson joined his rookie season is somewhat similar to the team that Josh will be playing for NEXT year.
It is funny that we compare their playing styles and production -- but whereas Josh represents the prototypical NFL QB at 6'5", the only reason Wilson wasn't a sure fire 1st round pick is because scouts were afraid of his 5'10" stature. Also noteworthy is the 2012 draft that produced Wilson. Andrew Luck and RG3 were the high profile QBs that went 1-2 overall. Luck is out of the league, and RG3 is now a backup. Meanwhile, Tannehill, Wilson and Cousins all led their teams to the playoffs this season.
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Would love if Shenault somehow fell to 22. I would even be on board with trading up a few spots to land him.
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It is hard to fairly evaluate Josh Allen based purely on statistics for a number of reasons:
1. The conservative mindset of the coaching staff, in which case 300-yard passing games will always be a rarity.
2. The fact that his rushing ability is such a big part of his overall game.
That said, there are certainly areas in which he needs to continue to improve in terms of decision-making and accuracy.
Bill Parcells once described the 4-year cycle for QBs.
Year 1: Rookie season; You are looking for "potential"; however, it is unfair to fully assess a young, rookie QB.
Year 2: Given the baseline that was provided in Year 1, are there signs of improvement? If not, then time to move on.
Year 3: Should be starting to put things together and play a role in putting the team in playoff position. If not, then time to move on.
Year 4: Should know by now whether the QB is a Franchise QB. If he is, you are set. If he isn't, can you still win with him? If the answer is, yes, then start thinking about an upgrade -- if not, then time to move on.
I think that Josh has actually been on the fast track with thumbs up for both Year 2 and Year 3 based on the Parcells criteria. With continued improvement (and upgrades to supporting offensive talent), I am hopeful for once and for all that he will prove to be the Franchise QB (i.e. able to keep up in a shootout against an opposing high-powered offense) that the team has been longing for since Kelly.
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Can't argue with the points about the weak schedule and blessed injury situation.
But...
We are in great cap shape, so I would expect a net gain (rather than a loss) from the talent perspective.
I expect continued progression from Josh as well as improvements to his supporting cast on offense.
I do not anticipate a decline in defense -- and trust McD and Frazier to make adjustments on defense to compensate for potential losses (Phillips, Lawson, etc.)
I also feel like McD is the type of coach who will learn from his past mistakes. Look for this team to rally around the notion that they have unfinished business to complete in 2020.
Also, it is hard to guess just how difficult the schedule will be. For example, at this time last year I had road games in Dallas and Pittsburgh penciled in as likely losses.
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I too get the sense that the coaching staff is less bothered by Kroft's presence than we are. The emergence of Knox helped to cushion the blow that Kroft's disappointing season provided. I have a feeling that he will be given another year in the system, given the injury situation early on. Also, he did sign a relatively hefty contract last season with a signing bonus -- so the cap ramifications for cutting him may actually outweigh the cost (at least in cap terms of keeping him in 2020). I know our cap situation is strong -- but still...
Lee Smith has to be the goner. That should open the way for more playing time for Sweeney -- and vacate a roster spot for another TE. I do not expect that spot to be filled by someone like Hooper or Henry though. More likely another journeyman or mid-round draft prospect.
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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
So the 4th and 27 was a bad decision. I don't disagree. But it wasn't conservative was it? That is my point people see defensive Head Coach and immediately go to "he is conservative". I am not saying he never gets things wrong.
As for the "prevent defense" I guess you are talking about the 3rd and 18. The Bills have called that defense on 3rd and long all year they sit at the sticks rally and tackle and it has worked all year. The DBs panicked lost sight of where the sticks were and then when they got the Johnson couldn't get him down. You can call that a conservative call if you like but every team in the NFL is dropping into deep zone there.
Much has been made of the JJ Watt sack that led to the 16-0 field goal (which kept the game within a potential 2-score margin) and ultimately proved to be the turning point of the game.
It is true that you could see the tide turn after that play - beginning with the Texans' next offensive series that led to their first score of the game, where Watson carried multiple defenders with him to the goal line -- and also broke a tackle to convert the 2-point conversion on the following play. However, it is worth noting how much softer the defense was playing on this series than they had previously in the game when holding the Texans scoreless.
In particular, one play no one talks about is the play that was just prior to Watson's TD run. It was 3rd and 8 from roughly midfield, and a stop here would have been huge. However, Tre is playing a good 10 yards off Hopkins in a soft zone. Watson sees it and is able to make the easy pitch-and -catch to Watson to pick up the 1st down. That may not be as dramatic as the 3rd-and-18 fiasco, but it still illustrates how much the Bills' easing off the throttle contributed to the Texans' ability to shift the momentum of the game.
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7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I don't think anyone is saying that, certainly not me (I could be wrong). But there are usually 5-6 plays that swing the game. The thing that's particularly troubling about this game for the Bills is that the Bills were 0 for 6 and there seem to be some patterns.
I think the play where both Morse and Knox whiffed is particularly critical because Allen took a massive hit. Jim Kubiak wrote that he was shaken on that play and ineffective afterwards. He may be correct. That's partly on Allen to be less "gamer" and go down or get out of bounds and not let himself get pasted in those circs.
I was VERY surprised that the game was not stopped and Josh examined for a possible concussion after that play. I was also surprised that a flag wasn't thrown for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cunningham. Regardless, as you said, if Knox and Morse do their job, that hit never happens.
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Where Would CJ Spiller Go In 2020?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Bingo! To make matters worse, the Bills also had glaring needs elsewhere and were not in the position to make this pick. I do think that the selection tipped their hand that Lynch was on the outs, which is why all they were able to net for Marshawn was a 4th round pick.
Chan had also made the dubious decision to impose a switch to the 3-4 defense with a roster that was not suited to play it. Buddy badly wanted to acquire a NT in the draft and tried to trade up for Dan Williams late in the 1st round. (There were misinformed reports at the time that he was trying to trade up for Tebow.) When he was unable to make the deal, Buddy apparently panicked and reached (badly) for Troup to hopefully fill that NT spot early in the 2nd round. The very next pick in the draft was Gronk to the Pats. Ouch!