2003Contenders
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5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
22 receptions on 54 targets is rather concerning. How much is just him not being good this year?That is certainly a fair point. After all, he is 2nd (ironically behind BTJ, who many on this board are clamoring giving up a 1st round pick to acquire) in the NFL with 8 drops on the season.
I guess we would have to look at why the productivity has been so bad. I am wondering if it could be a situation where a change of scenery and the chance to play for a genuine contender could help in those regards.
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I also liked the level of energy and excitement he provided after each 3rd down stop.
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I'm wondering if J. Jeudy may not be the most logical and realistic option at this point? He is in a terrible situation in Cleveland (only saw 2 passes thrown his direction yesterday), has had some success in the past, still has some tread on his tires, and Beane has had a working relationship with the Browns front office in the past. Also, a trade like this wouldn't cost an arm and a leg, I am guessing a mid-round pick?
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Given who our next opponent is, I suspect the officials will retroactively assess a 15-yard personal foul penalty against Dion to start the game.
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1 hour ago, stlbills13 said:
This is a great test for the coaching staff in my opinion. Coming off 2 losses where you got both outplayed and outcoached. You had a bye week and now you go on the road against an improved but still mediocre team. You have the 2 suspended players coming back and likely a few other difference makers coming back from injury. If you can't get it done on Sunday, it's going to be a long season.
Agreed.
I think it also provides a great barometer to help determine the best course of action for the remainder of this season -- and the next week heading up to the trade deadline in particular. That is, is this team as good as we thought/hoped going into the season where a single big move (like trading a future first round pick for a bona fide #1 WR) is in play -- or is the team really much further from that level, requiring too many pieces to seriously go "all in" for 2025.
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At a certain point we have to stop blaming coaches, the front office etc. for Keon's disappointing metrics to date -- and place the blame squarely where it lies: on the athlete himself.
We all knew going in then Coleman wasn't the fastest dude on the planet -- but plenty of all time great WRs (Rice, Irvin, etc.) were not blessed with great speed -- but managed to become what they were by an outstanding work ethic, supreme confidence -- and the belief and insistence that when the ball was in the air is was THEIRS.
When I watch Keon, I see a dude that runs lackadaisical routes -- and doesn't seem to fight all that hard to bring in the ball on those contested routes. I hate his body language. Given that he has been disciplined now on multiple occasions for conduct issues, his maturity and work ethic definitely have to be questioned.
I recall similar concerns about Eric Moulds after his first couple of seasons in the league. Eventually he matured and by year 3 developed into the kind of WR that had initially led the Bills to draft him in the 1st round. It's on Keon to decide himself whether he wants to put in the work and do what he can to rise to that next level.
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9 minutes ago, Gregg said:
Beane right now as the trade deadline nears.
As disappointed as I am with Beane's handling of the position in recent years, I do realize that there may not be many serious options that he can explore right now. The issue is supply and demand: there are many more WR-needy teams right than there are viable WR options in the market-place.
Olave seems to be the most logical candidate -- provided that the Saints are even willing to trade him -- but he is likely being pursued by many other teams, which drives up the price. Personally, I would be on board with giving up a 1st round pick (and maybe more) to acquire him.
Regardless, I hope the front office is leaving no stone unturned.
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1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:
It's amazing how similar the Ravens and Bills are. Unprecedented in terms of overall record over a long period of time with the same HC/franchise QB without a Super Bowl appearance. Hats off to the Chiefs I guess.
And the common denominator? Neither team has been able to get past the Reid-Mahomes Chiefs. McDermott-Allen would have at least 2 Super Bowl appearances (perhaps as many as 4) if not for the Chiefs knocking them out. The Harbaugh-Jackson Ravens would have one appearance as well.
This must have been how the Colts and Oilers teams felt back in the 70s when the Dolphins and Steelers ruled. The Madden-Stabler Raiders were in the same boat until they eventually won a Super Bowl of their own. Hopefully we do the same one of these days.
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8 hours ago, RyanC883 said:
How about Trubiski for Wilson?
On a serious note, if the Jets really are interested in tanking/maximizing draft picks, I wonder what it would take to pry Wilson away. Hopefully Beane is at least exploring that possibility.
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43 minutes ago, SCBills said:
To the Keon Coleman point, the only way this Offense goes to another level is if he becomes something. Trade for a WR aside.
So, yea, we can demote him in the Offense, but all that does is make us a big personnel, more predictable offense and we’re already very predictable without much on the outside to threaten teams vertically.
Just seems like a band-aid that perhaps makes us more efficient, but come playoff time.. easier to defend unless we simply execute at an extremely high level.
Agreed.
I don't think the issue with Coleman is that he is getting too many targets -- it is the KIND of targets he is getting.
I really do believe that he is best utilized in the bubble and slant game, where he can best utilize his basketball box-out skills and physicality rather than expecting him to win downfield battles, when creating separation isn't a gift of his. If Brady can get get him involved in these situations early in a game, I also think it would help with his confidence, which I believe has been hindered the last couple of games. Maybe getting him involved in a thoughtful, creative manner COULD eventually help him elevate his route running and better develop nuances to ultimately create separation on intermediate and deeper routes?
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It would also be interesting to note how many plays were as called -- and how many Josh may have audibled out of?
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7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
More like I actually see things for what they were.
Under Frazier's defenses from 2017-2021 over that time the Bills ranked:
1st in yards per game allowed (310)
3rd in points per game allowed (20.4)
1st in opposing passer rating (78.0)
1st in Total Takeaways (140)
Seems pretty absurd to claim they got "lit up in the first half" routinely based on those facts.
Even if you want to claim they allowed 17 points in an average first half and then 3 in the second half, so what? Last time I checked the game is 60 minutes, not 30 and you don't get bonus points for taking a lead into halftime.
This is all very true.
However, it is worth noting that Frazier had access to arguably the best safety tandem in the league with prime Hyde and Poyer. Not to mention a premium Tre White and T. Johnson, both of whom are now well past their prime. The team was also in good shape at LB with a healthy Milano and Edmunds. I know Edmunds had his deficiencies but he is better than the group of guys that have trotted out there the last couple of seasons.
Honestly, it goes back to what a poor performance Beane has done in the draft and back-filling positions.
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I will take it a step further. It is clear to me that the RECEIVERS DON'T SEEM TO KNOW WHAT TO DO when Josh DOES break contain.
Even when Josh buys extra time by rolling out of the pocket and scrambling, he rarely finds an open receiver. While we all lament the lack of quality and production (re: talent) coming from our receiving corps, I truly believe that this is more of an awareness type of thing that comes with practice and chemistry rather than having some unique skill-set. Aside from speed and ability to separate, it appears that our receiving corps is missing the craftiness and nuances to play effectively.
Mahomes has often talked about how often the Chiefs work on these sort of scramble drills. To my eyes, it doesn't look like the Bills do.
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The funny thing about this argument is that you never know the flow of the game. In fact, there was no "double dip" Monday night as the Falcons ended the first half with the ball -- where the Bills (as we all remember) were very fortunate not to have given up a TD there. In essence, it was the Falcons who had the extra possession -- in the first half!
I know Bill Bellichick always said he liked getting the ball first in the 2nd half (especially when he was on the road) because many fans are still in the bathroom or getting refreshments, so the stadium is often much quieter then.
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Funny about that 2018 draft class. Josh and Lamar have been perennial studs, while up until a couple of years ago Mayfield and Darnold -- both drafted well ahead of Josh and Lamar -- were seen as busts or journeymen. Both on their 4th or 5th team. Now both are playing lights out in 2025 -- while Josh and Lamar have struggled.
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So gutless. Immediately after a bad penalty, the defense almost always gives up a big play.
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I think the issue heading into that draft was that Beane was most concerned about the limited number of draft picks on hand and doing whatever he could to acquire additional ones. In particular, he was dead set on re-acquiring the 3rd rounder that he parted with to acquire R. Douglas during the prior season. That desire to add picks is also what precluded him from making any kind of trade-up that many of us were clamoring for to get into the range to draft one of the top 3 WR prospects (Harrison, Nabors, Odunze) or even BTJ, who fell into a reasonable trade-up position. So, if that was his goal, then he managed to achieve it by two modest trade-downs and picking up a 3rd and 5th rounder in the process.
As much as I love the many positive things that Beane has done for this team, I must admit that he has begun to sour on me a bit. Part of that is due to his seemingly inconsistent vision for building the team. At times, he seems obsessive about acquiring draft picks -- at other times he seemingly throws them away for questionable move-ups in the draft. It is interesting that he appears to have done better with late-round picks than he has with the earlier round picks. I wonder if that is indicative of perhaps the coaches and top level executives having had more say in those early-round picks (see; Elam) over the scouts who have earned their money by identifying the late-round and lesser known gems like Benford.
The interesting thing is that it's looking like neither Worthy nor Coleman is a great 1st round pick, which may make Coleman's ultimate 2nd round selection easier to digest. Worthy's speed was obvious -- but there were definitely concerns about his hands, skepticism about his ability to run a full route tree and his ability to physically hold up for a full season. Meanwhile, Coleman's lack of speed and ability to separate are the reason he was not drafted in the 1st round. Those concerns about both players have already manifested themselves in the first two seasons.
Obviously it is early -- and there is a chance that both players could eventually evolve. The interesting thing about Coleman is that he does possess that prototypical size and physical ability (especially given his basketball background) to emerge as a classic "West Coast" style receiver. The problem is that Brady is not utilizing him in that role. Rather than getting the ball to him quickly on slants, bubbles, etc. and relying on solid YAC, they are more often throwing jump balls to him and trying to get him the ball downfield, which does not play to his strengths, especially given his inability to separate. Perhaps Coleman is not doing what he needs to do to best understand route concepts, etc. For example, if he and Josh could develop better chemistry (especially on busted plays) that would go a long way toward improving Coleman's value to the team. Let's also remember that Coleman is young -- and given comments from the coaches, it sounds like maturity is very likely an issue. Whether he gets past that is up to him.
Getting back to Beane's obsession with re-acquiring that 3rd rounder given up for Douglas... Never mind that that 3rd rounder he eventually obtained resulted in D. Carter, who now appears to be a bust!
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5 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:
Speaking to this my biggest disappointment with White was largely all on one play. He gave up 3 completions for 40 yards. I can live with that more or less but being a veteran he needed to get his head around and make a play on the ball in the end zone. That PI was a killer.
The funny thing is that PI may have inadvertently saved the day if whatever Patriots fan who was running the clock hadn't screwed the Bills over.
When that play was over there were 4 seconds on the clock. Say an incompletion there rather than the PI, the Pats would have undoubtedly kicked the FG there to end the half. Instead with the ball at the 1, they elected to try to score a quick TD. When the ball fell incomplete on that risky play that should have been the end of the half -- and the Pats would (and should) have felt deflated coming away with no points there. Instead, there was somehow 1 second left, which allowed them to kick that field goal. I am not sure I have EVER seen a play that took less than 3 seconds off the clock!
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1 minute ago, MJS said:
Because he starts pressing more and tries to scramble more. He bails from clean pockets, etc.
I do honestly believe that having Diggs in the house -- and watching him torch our defense -- was a contributing factor in Josh's pressing. All season long, Josh had done a great job of being smart and patient with the ball and taking what the defense gave him. He wasn't horrible Sunday night, but he certainly regressed to "hero ball" Josh on some occasions.
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16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
it's both
further...if you watch teams w a bonafide threat at wideout you notice his gravity ie how the defense adjusts to that particular player. can lead to miscommunications/broken coverages that leave guys running open (not saying every wr who gets wide open is due to busted coverage, sometimes you're just in the perfect playcall, but it helps)
however i would say our pass concepts appear less sophisticated than other top teams, using last game as an example (and there are plenty more) there are just a lot of route combinations that dont contribute to/enhance each other...and some that just don't make sense. like allen in a 3step drop from shotgun and theres 3 verticals that nobody is even looking back for, think it was 3rd quarter pats game. kind of stuck out in my mind that play...and again how much of that is on offensive design and how much of that is due to relative talent of the pass catchers isnt totally clear
It also seems like it just takes so lo-o-o-o-ong for our plays to develop -- and often for minimal yardage.
I would think that quick slants to Keon (given his size and basketball background, knowing how to box-out) would be a staple in this offense?
And I really do hope that the offense focuses on scramble drills this week. I am tired of seeing Josh break contain, buy 5-6 seconds -- and have no one to throw the ball to.
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What was it that the Cowboys gave up for G. Pickens?
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From an offensive coaching standpoint, I marvel at the number of times I see opposing WRs running WIDE OPEN. I know that some of that is because of how terrible our secondary has been playing, but how much of that is due to opposing OC's calling plays that allow their receivers to get so open? Meanwhile, it is well known that we don't exactly have speed burners at the WR position. But how much of this is also due to route concepts, etc. that would best serve the qualities (or lack thereof) of each of our receivers?
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I have typically been an apologist for McD because I really do believe he does A LOT of things really well. But I think he has reached the point where he may best serve in the coach-as-CEO role, rather than in the defensive strategist role, when "his" defense continues to decline as the years go by. McD is so married to "his" system -- and keeps bringing in coordinators that are like-minded or outright acolytes of his.
Part of the reason for the decline is that his system seems to center around having athletes with a particular skill set to run his defense. That was great when we had one of the best safety tandems in the league with Hyde/Poyer. But that is no longer the case. And as they and others (like T. White, T. Johnson and M Milano) have regressed, so has his defense. Wouldn't it be nice if the defense weren't so "system-based" and was adaptable to best handle the opponent at hand?
It may be time for McD to bring in an outside "consultant" to help identify where and how to improve. Someone who isn't married to this same sort of system -- but brings an array of different concepts to the table.
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Some thoughts about Maye's Sunday night performance off the top of my head:
1. Early in the game (really, through most of the first half) the Bills did a great job pressuring him. He wasn't necessarily seeing ghosts -- but you could tell he was rattled. Collinsworth kept pointing out how he was unable to see beyond the pass rush and was keeping his eyes down. And, for as bad as the Bills offense played in the first half with 2 really bad turnovers that placed the defense in precarious situations -- Maye really only led the Pats to one scoring drive that resulted in just 3 points (and even that was gifted by the stadium's questionable timekeeper, who left a second on the clock for them to kick that field goal). For whatever reason the Bills eased up on the pressure -- not sure how much of it was good adjustments made by the Pats or how much of it was McD becoming overly conservative and backing off. Regardless, once the pressure eased you could see Maye's confidence increasingly rise -- to the point where he started making plays downfield even when he was under duress.
2. It can't be understated just how good Diggs was Sunday night. He made clutch plays and made a concerted effort to help his young QB whenever he was flushed from the pocket. Compare that to what Josh endured. I know many of us complain about the Bills' lacking a true downfield threat, someone with speed who can stretch a defense. That is true. But even more desirable is a receiver that simply has a feel for the game and is instinctively on the same page as his QB. We greatly miss what we had with Diggs (when he was motivated) and (to a lesser extent) a prime Beasley. There is no one on the team we have now who can (or appears willing to) do these things. Maybe Shakir to a certain extent -- and Kincaid has shown some real promise this year. But too many times Sunday night (and at other points this season) Josh has bought time with his legs and pocket presence -- and yet no receivers break open. I confess that I lack the insight to know whether this is something that could come with the crew we have on hand as time/chemistry improves -- or is it simply a fact that one or more massive upgrades are required at the position? For example, we joke here all the time about Coleman's lack of speed and inability to create separation -- but is it really impossible for him to a find a way to help his QB on a scramble drill?
3. Like others have said, if I were a Pats fan I would be excited. Maye has all of the physical tools. Maybe not Josh's upside (which is generational) -- but certainly in that next tier of guys like Herbert/Lawrence/Love. He's physical, nimble for such a big guy and can make all of the NFL throws.
What's wrong with Josh?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Many of us had concerns going into the season that the WR room simply wasn't good enough. So the struggles from that perspective have gone as expected.
Still, as many have pointed out, Josh has looked very uncomfortable at times during these last 3 games -- and, really, I thought this started showing up a bit against the Saints -- even though the Bills managed to win that one. I do feel like he may have pressed too much against the Pats -- and Diggs' presence on the opposing team may have played a role there. The same thing happened last season when the Bills played the Texans (when a healthy Diggs was there). Against Atlanta he faced a rested team with a DC that has had success in the past making Josh uncomfortable.
Here's the thing. The younger version of Josh was often criticized for playing "hero" ball and trying to do too much, when the play was simply not there. This more mature version of Josh is content to take what the defense gives him and NOT try the low percentage plays when he doesn't have to. That said, there is a fine line between being smart with the ball and not taking unnecessary risks versus being completely risk adverse (i.e. showing no sense of urgency) and allowing an inferior opponent to hang around in the game. I feel like Josh was closer to being "smart" with the ball against Carolina than he was to being "out-of-sorts" in the prior 2 games. The Bills never trailed in this game -- and, indeed, even though they had to settle for FGs on the first 2 drives, it was pretty clear that they were going to be able to run the ball all game against the Panthers. So, when execution broke down on those pass plays, it was better for him to take a sack or check down than to unnecessarily put the ball at risk as he may have done even as recently as 2 years ago (most notably against beatable teams like the Jets and Jags).
I also got a sense by halftime against the Panthers that he may have gotten his mojo back. He definitely looked more comfortable and played much better in the 2nd half.
One other thing I noticed is that the receivers definitely looked better on scramble drills Sunday than they had looked in the previous 2 games. For example, both Moore and Shakir stayed with him as he raced toward the sideline. Now, both of them failed to get their feet down in bounds on passes intended for them, but at least both provided him with an option when he was flushed from the pocket.
Obviously, the passing game needs to step it up as the team faces tougher opponents (starting with the Chiefs next week).