2003Contenders
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2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
You don't trade back when you have one guy.
You trade back when you have several guys and can be pretty sure at least one will be left.
Exactly -- and given the number of calls they are reportedly getting about 2.01, I suspect that there is a high probability that they move down yet again. I have no idea how they have the players graded, but right now there is a pretty good collection of guys on the board that would fill a need who would not be unreasonable to select at 33:
DeJean (S)
McKinstry (CB)
Powers-Johnson (OC)
McConkey (WR)
Franklin (WR)
Coleman (WR)
Mitchell (WR)
Nubin (S)
Lassiter (CB)
Rakestraw (CB)
They could move down as far as 40, still land their BAP (at a position of need) -- and pick up another (hopefully top 100) pick for their efforts. The plethora of 5th rounders also gives them some ammunition to move up a few picks here or there if they want to make a move later in the 2nd or 3rd.
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1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:
Watch Beane start to trade up tonight
Absolutely -- use some combination of those 5th round picks to move up in the 2nd and/or 3rd round(s).
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I certainly believe that Beane has been doing his due diligence in terms of calling around in pursuit of an "aggressive" move up the draft board. I suppose the question is: what exactly is "aggressive" -- and just how "aggressive" is Beane willing to be. The biggest problem with all of this is that everything is so fluid -- and it won't be until the draft is well underway that we have any indication of what may happen.
Let's just say that Beane is trying to land one of the top 3 WRs and is indeed calling around to see if any of the teams drafting in the top 10 are willing to move down. Picking all the way down at 28, it is highly unlikely that any of the teams in the top, let's say 6, would be willing to make a deal with the Bills -- even if the Bills were willing to part with an exhaustive list of future picks (in addition to 28 and 60 this year).
Now, if at least one of those top 3 falls as far as 8, then things could start getting interesting, as parting with 28, 60, 2025 1st rounder, and one of the 2025 2nd rounders could possibly get that done with Atlanta. But that is STILL a lot for the Bills to give up when they have other needs. I just have a hard time seeing Beane be THAT aggressive, which could be why he more or less managed those expectations in last week's conference call when he indicated that he did not see us trading into the top 10.
If one of those receivers surprisingly falls out of the top 10, then I can honestly see a serious possibility of an "aggressive" trade happening. The framework is there from the 2017 move that cost the Chiefs their 2018 first rounder and 2017 3rd-round pick to move up from #27 to #10. I would imagine similar compensation would be in play for a move up from 28 to, say 11-13. Of course, the Bills do not have a #3 this year -- so likely the cost would be one of the #2 picks NEXT year (plus the 2025 #1) in order to move up from 28. That is much easier to stomach, provided that the receiver really is an immediate-impact difference-maker.
I really do hope that "aggressive" does not mean trading away anything significant to move into the top 20 to land whomever they have ranked as their 4th receiver (BTJ or Worthy or whomever). I could live with a move like they have made in each of the last 2 drafts (parting with, say, a 4th rounder) to move up a few spots to solidify such a pick. But I would not consider that "aggressive".
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5 hours ago, Brandon said:
The 2000 draft class is generally considered one of the worst ever. Not many teams did well that year.
Indeed -- plus, (God rest his soul) John Butler already had one foot out the door for San Diego when he oversaw this, his final draft.
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Prior to the Diggs trade I may have said Legette, as I think he has the size/speed/upside to round out the WR room. However, with Diggs gone, I think the team needs more of a "sure" thing -- and a guy that can contribute right away (which I am not sure Legette can do). That to me is McConkey, who may not have Legette's measurables -- but he come into the league right away as a polished and versatile receiver, and I believe has a better shot at off-setting Diggs' departure.
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2 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:
It’s not that the players he mocked to the Bills are bad. It’s about them being drafted way before their value. So the Bills would pass on Mitchell, Legette, and Franklin over Kneeland? Yikes. And it continued with other picks. Brutal value.
Agreed. Reuter actually does a decent job having them address needs -- but his sequencing of when these players are selected is odd.
Would the Bills really draft Wilson ahead of several other WRs that wind up being drafted in the 3rd round of this mock? I will say that if Reuter happened to have any inside knowledge (which I doubt he does), I would be highly annoyed if the draft went the way he has it going for the Bills without some serious TRADING DOWN happening.
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15 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
There apparently is a lot of buzz on Kneeland being a borderline late 1st early 2nd player among league guys. I don’t see it - wouldn’t even use pick 60 on him. It’s pure projection of his size and athleticism, apparently, because he didn’t exactly dominate the MAC.
Reminds me too much of the McCargo pick back in 2006. The guy was viewed as a 3rd/4th rounder -- but leading up to the draft, suddenly his stock shot up. Of course, I have a great deal more faith in this current front office than I did in the one that oversaw that draft.
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2 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:
If we could swap with Atlanta (they don’t need offense) at 8 to jump Chicago and the Jets for Odunze (I assume MHJ and Nabers are gone) I could see it costing this and I’d be on board:
Falcons receive:
pick 28 in 2024
2025 1st round
2025 2nd round
Bills receive:
8th pick in 2024 and select Odunze
This would leave us with the Texans 2nd round pick next year and all of our picks still this year.
I doubt that the Falcons would be willing to move down 20 spots in the 1st round without getting something else back THIS year. My guess is that #60 this year as well as the 2025 first rounder would be a minimal starting point.
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1 hour ago, section122 said:
This isn't realistic. Going back 5 spots nets you an early 4th rounder. The first realistic chance to get a 3rd rounder is dropping to 36 and getting the literal last pick in the 3rd (100). You could also do 40 and 78 for 28 and 133 but that is a large drop back.
With all the picks the Bills have on Day 3, maybe they can package one or more of them in the hypothetical trade to make it more reasonable/enticing.
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Given that there are 3-4 receivers on the board that are pretty closely rated, I voted to trade down. Ideally, that would mean moving into the top part of the 2nd round (where at least one of those receivers will still be available) -- and hopefully picking up a 3rd rounder for the trouble.
Obviously, we would have to find a serious trading partner.
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13 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I almost feel like Roman Wilson is a potential Bills draft pick as he's one guy I see almost no one talk about.
I agree -- there really is not much hype surrounding him. He is not a big-bodied receiver -- but he checks off pretty much all of the other boxes: speed, route running, versatility, and has played in big-time games.
As we have seen in the WR threads, beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder in this year's draft class. The top 3 (MHJ, Nabers and Odunze) will probably go in the top 10. BTJ will likely go somewhere in the next 10 picks (well before the Bills). If BB does not see great value with the collection of receivers on the board at 28, I could see him waiting until the 2nd to draft a polished receiver like Wilson.
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I believe that the Bills were interested -- and probably did tell Armstead to come back with any offer he received from another team. However, there is simply no way Beane could (or should) have matched that offer that Jacksonville made.
This is probably a situation similar to when the WR came in during the Buddy Nix era -- was it Brandon Lloyd? -- who was in the office literally working out a contract when a representative from another team called with an offer. When Buddy heard the terms the other team was offering, he immediately stopped proceedings and told the player and his agent -- "You better take that deal with the other team because there is no way we can match it..."
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I highly doubt that we see any "big splash" deals.
Instead, I think he will be patient, wait a few days until all of the hype dies down -- and pick up some depth/low key guys for modest contracts on 1-2-year deals.
While I trust McD and the coaching staff to make do with these kinds of players in the secondary, I think (aside from another possible under-the-radar signing) we will have to wait until the draft to find a meaningful pickup at the position that we all covet the most, WR.
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Nice signing (assuming money is minimal).
My guess is that they will still want to bring in a veteran who can be relied upon for pass protection/blitz pick-ups.
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2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Right now, I think it's 1 of 3 guys. A small-medium trade up for Brian Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell or Xavier Legette at 28. I'd be happy with any of them.
If I'm having to pick only 1, right now my gut says Legette at 28.
I would add Keon Coleman to that mix as well at 28. He has the size and skill set to replicate the things that Davis did well -- with better hands to go along with it.
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Mort was a great one -- and a man of integrity. He had real inside sources -- and when he reported on a topic, you knew it was legit because he always vetted his information. I know many of us were unhappy with him during the drought years because he was brutally honest about what a mess the front office was in those days, but he was right.
Prayers to his family and loved ones.
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Based on his impressive 40-time and explosive numbers in the cone drills at the combine this week, I highly doubt that Chop makes it anywhere close to 28.
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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:
You seem to think it's a choice between signing a decent WR or drafting one high. I'm saying do both. Solve the problem once and for all and leave no doubt. What if the 1st round pick isn't immediately ready? What if we suffer an injury? I don't understand why we have been scraping out the dregs when it comes to WR depth, but on the DL it's an unspeakable sin to have anything less than the most expensive depth in the league. You really think paying the likes of Tim Settle and Jordan Phillips will be more impactful than say a Curtis Samuel?
I agree. Also just looking at the sheer numbers, Diggs and Shakir are the only receivers that are certain to return next season (and some folks aren't even certain about Diggs).
That means that is is necessary to replace Davis and Sherfield who are likely gone (and possibly Harty too). I am hopeful that Shorter will be a piece of that puzzle -- but that is far from a sure thing.
We clearly do not have the cap $ to pursue a top free agent receiver but someone like Samuel or Mooney makes sense in addition to an early draft pick.
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Assuming the price is right, I think Curtis Samuel could be everything we hoped McKenzie and Hardy could be in this offense.
I also think Mooney could be a nice bargain basement pickup: he's never had a legitimate passing threat at the QB position, and I think pairing him with Josh could help him explode -- or at least evolve into J. Brown type production.
Regardless, the team still needs to draft a prototype deep threat WR.
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It goes in cycles -- and assuming we still have #17 for years to come, the Bills' time will eventually come.
It took Landry and the Cowboys awhile to get to the dance because Lombardi and the Packers stood in their way.
It took Noll and the Steelers awhile because Shula and the Dolphins stood in their way.
It took the Raiders awhile because the Steelers stood in their way.
It took the 49ers awhile because Landry's Cowboys stood in their way.
Then, it took the Cowboys awhile because the 49ers stood in their way.
It took Favre and the Packers awhile because the Aikman/Emmitt/Irvin Cowboys stood in their way.
It took the whole league awhile (including Manning/Colts, Cowher/Steelers, Reid/Chiefs) to get past the Brady/Belichick Patriots.
Now, it is KC with Reid/Mahomes that stands in everyone's way.
I am optimistic that with a few additions (especially at WR and on defense) and better luck with health come playoff time, we will eventually see the Bills hoist a Lombardi trophy.
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55 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:
The Chief’s only regulation TD was less than 20 yards off a turnover. The 49ers defense had 2 turnovers, 3 sacks, forced 5 punts and allowed 19 regulation points. This is a defense that was key to bringing the 49ers to the superbowl. Meanwhile, the Bills had 1 turnover, 0 sacks, and forced 1 punt while allowing 27 points. The 49ers allowed an average of 5.8 yards per play, meanwhile the Bills allowed 7.7. How does Sean McDermott still have a job when he was leading the Bills defense?
Hmmm. Maybe the fact that the Bills' defense was depleted at virtually every level -- most particularly at LB where they had trouble hanging with Kelce and Pacheco -- had something to do with it. That is not an excuse, it is a reality. And, yet, when the game was on the line in the 4th quarter the defense did come up with a critical stop to force a punt and get the ball back in the offense's hands.
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3 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I can't think of a situation where the player agrees to convert bonus money he has already been paid back to salary so that it can be transferred to the new team
I could be mistaken on this point, but I also think it's not allowed for a trade partner to repay the trading team for bonus money.
We have had trades where the trading team agrees to take on part of the guaranteed salary, or where the player even agrees to a salary cut (this happened with Case Keenum I believe?) or a renegotiated future contract as part of the trade - But that's different than the player handing back bonuses he's already been paid, or the trade partner repaying the trading team for money they've already paid.
But I'd be happy to learn about this way, tell me more?
The closest situation like this I can think of happened with Lavar Arrington (15-20 years ago).
Recall that back in those days Daniel Snyder and the (then) Redskins went crazy each off-season throwing money around at free agents, back-loading contracts to circumvent the cap, etc. Eventually it came time to pay the piper: they were way over the cap and running out of guys to restructure to help create cap space.
Arrington wanted out -- but the cap hit to trade or cut him was too exhaustive for Washington to do anything in those regards. Knowing that he had suitors on the horizon, Arrington repaid Washington a portion of monies already paid to him in the form of signing bonuses, etc. which provided the team with the cap relief they needed to cut him. Arrington landed on his feet with the Giants, who gave him enough up-front money to make this whole transaction worth his while.
I highly doubt Diggs would be up for a deal like this.
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I like that he has experience (both as a player and coach) with QBs as well as WRs. Obviously with Brady's promotion there is a void at the QB coach position, and the receivers haven't been the same since Chad Hall left. So maybe Curry can help solidify there.
I am also all for bringing in a smart guy who can help with concepts for the passing game -- and hopefully work with Brady to devise schemes and routes that will allow our receivers to get open and get decent RAC numbers.
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26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:
Correct. We don't have a WR on the roster who fits that description.
Wouldn't it be great if Shorts could somehow be that guy? I guess we can dream.
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Deep dive on 2024 WR class - Beane’s analysis is in line with this
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I agree -- the only caveat I have is that if there is as great of demand for other teams to move up to #33 as Beane claims, he would be hard-pressed to avoid trading down if an offer comes in that is too good to refuse.