[Why the Josh Allen hate (draft reaction)?]

Looking back it is amazing the way things fell into place.

 

First, we went into the draft -- or rather into the draft season -- with 2 first round picks, but both of them were late (back-to-back in the 20s). One of those picks came via the trade with KC on the swap of 1st round picks the year before, where KC netted Mahomes 10th overall. The other came via the Bills having made it to the playoffs for the first time in 17 seasons the year before. Beane also traded Tyrod Taylor to Cleveland in exchange for the 1st pick in the 3rd round.

 

Beane traded Cordy Glenn to the Bengals to move up 10 spots, which had us sitting at 12 on draft day. When the Jets made the move with Indy to move up from 6 to 3, everyone knew they were going QB there. Everyone also knew that Cleveland was going QB at #1 overall. Knowing that at least 2 QBs would be off the board by the time the 4th pick came along, Beane had tried all through the pre-draft to move up. He tried to work out a deal with his old mentor from Carolina (who in 2018 was GM of the Giants) to move up to 2, but they were not willing to budge.

 

After having taken their QB at #1 (Mayfield), Beane thought he had a deal in place with the Browns to move up for their next pick (at 4) but they reneged and took Denzel Ward. The Ward pick had a rippling affect, because the Broncos (like most pundits) thought that the Browns would take Bradley Chubb there -- and when Chubb was available, the Broncos themselves backed off the trade they had in the works with the Bills (at least the Broncos made it clear ahead of time that the trade was contingent on the one player they coveted NOT still being on the board). Both of those deals would have involved Beane parting ways with that other 1st round pick.

 

At #6, the Colts were dead set on Nelson and were unwilling to move down. Tampa was willing to trade down to 12 but they wanted the same deal that had been in place with Cleveland/Denver, the Bills other first round pick. The two sides eventually agreed to the Bills' two second round picks.

 

On an unrelated note, Beane used that pick acquired from Cleveland in the Tyrod trade to move up in the 1st to net Edmunds. Funny that Edmunds was almost as polarizing a figure in Buffalo as Josh. LOL

 

[2024 WR Draft Class]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Probably doesn't have the speed you're looking for, but might be worth keeping an eye on Ed McCaffrey's son/Christian McCaffrey's brother, Luke. He's at the Senior Bowl this week. Played QB for Nebraska before transferring to Rice to play WR where he kinda blew up the last couple years. I also believe he's statistically the best in the class in terms of making contested catches. Needs to learn how to strap his helmet though lol; never seen someone lose their helmet so much.

 

 

Would love to snag him in the 3rd/4th in ADDITION to a 1st round pick at WR.

[Joe Brady Officially Promoted as Bills OC!]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

The move from Dorsey to Brady has to be one of the weirdest things I've ever witnessed in football. Specifically:

All of the analytics favored Dorsey, but if you watched his offense in real time, you saw a lack of logical sequencing, layering, and a general lack of feel for the game. You saw an offense that got stuck in neutral too often, did illogical things, became stale for long stretches, and ultimately failed to score enough points on a consistent basis.

Meanwhile, all of the analytics took a dip once Brady came aboard. Pretty much any notable measure of success from an analytics standpoint was WORSE under Brady than Dorsey. And yet, if you watched the offense under Brady as compared to Dorsey, you suddenly saw a plan, a logic, the aforementioned sequencing and layering, better organization, streamlining of the playbook, greater offensive consistency, and ultimately, more points being scored on a more consistent basis. 

Ken Dorsey was an analytics darling as a playcaller, but in the "real world" of football, the offense often seemed broken and basic.

Joe Brady was NOT so much of an analytics darling, and analytics guys will insist that the Bills offense got "worse" under him, but in the "real world" of football, the offense suddenly seemed to work better, more often, and more consistently.

Absolutely bizarre. I can't explain it, but I CAN tell you what my eyes saw very clearly: the offense seemed to clearly work better and be more productive and consistent under Joe Brady.

 

This.

 

I would add also something else that would not show up directly in the analytics. And that is the demeanor of the play-caller and the influence he had on the players.

 

From the first game we saw with Brady (against the Jets) the "Low Positive" Josh was gone and the loose Josh was back. Cook commented on this as well -- praising Brady for not losing faith in him and putting him back in the Philly game after the costly drop. (Two weeks before, against the Broncos, Dorsey had benched him for a significant portion of the game after the fumble on the opening drive).

[Please pray for my wife]

Scott, I am so sorry to hear this very sad news.

 

While I can't pretend to walk in your shoes, I can say that I understand what you are going through, as I lost my wife back in 2021. All that I can suggest is that you hold onto all the wonderful memories that the two of you shared together -- and to continue to seize the unending bond that you have with your family to get through this. May the Lord bless you all and lift your hearts during this sad time.

[Josh officially a finalist for MVP]

I guess my biggest misgiving about Lamar is that his unique talents require that a specific offense be in place to make the best use of those talents -- in terms of scheme, supporting cast, etc. Meanwhile, Josh and Mahomes both transcend any such limitations. You could literally plug either of them into any offense and be set.

[Please pray for my wife]

Praying for your wife and the whole family. 🙏

[What is McDermott’s Magnum Opus?]

And exactly what poor coaching decisions did he make in the game Sunday against the Chiefs that cost them the game?

 

The reality is that one team went into the game mostly healthy. The other team had a depleted defense and was missing their WR2 -- and STILL went toe-to-toe against the defending Super Bowl champs. The difference in the game? One team's receivers who had struggled with drops all year caught everything that hit their hands -- the other team (with one of the highest paid receivers in the NFL) dropped multiple key catchable passes.

 

Hard to see where McD can be blamed for the loss.

[The WR#2 Market (Spotrac Breakdown and Comparison)]

I think they should draft one in the 1st AND pursue one of the middle-tier WRs in free agency. The guy I like is Mooney; he played with a garbage offense in Chicago and battled through some injuries -- but he did post a 1,000-yard season back in 2021. If we can get him at a discounted rate...

[At the end, how Josh Allen's carrer will look like ?]

I was thinking about that after the game too -- what will Josh's career look like when it is all said and done?

 

I think it will go one of three ways:

 

1. Like Dan Marino or Dan Fouts he will be remembered as one of the best QBs of his era -- but one who sadly came along at the wrong time when he played for a team that just could not get past other teams that were simply better.

 

2. Like Ken Stabler whose teams were always playing deep into the playoffs back in the 70s but thwarted by better teams (Dolphins, Steelers) -- but he finally won one.

 

3. Like Peyton Manning who could not get past the Patriots (and other teams) early in his career -- but finally broke through in route to multiple Super Bowls.

 

I think Josh is better than all of the QBs on my list above -- he just needs better receiver options (like they all had) to get over the hump.

[McDermott - Excuses, Valid but concerning]

49 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

McDermott has a .640 all time win percentage just behind Andy Reid .641. McDermott’s win percentage is better than Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Bill Cower, Sean McVay, Pete Carroll, Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells just to name to a few. He took over a losing culture and we have been a consistent winner since. Lesser coaches have been able to win the Super Bowl so there is no reason to think that he could not win it. 
 

Only 1 team wins in the end each year and it takes playing your best at the end of season, a few bounces to go your way and to be relatively healthy. It is not like he has been unable to win in the playoffs as he has essentially been beaten by Andy Reid and the Chiefs most years. So if the Chiefs want to swap Reid for McDermott, sure I’ll do it but that ain’t happening. The chances of actually getting an upgrade to McDermott are slim. The team is much more likely to take a step back rather than finding the coach that can actually outcoach Reid. 
 

Sure McDermott can be rigid at times, but more often than not he is able to adapt and correct mistakes. I think he has some degree of self awareness and he has improved as a coach. He was aggressive during the Chiefs game and other than who actually carried the ball on the fake punt, I had no issues with his coaching performance. Essentially, our big time players like Diggs, Oliver and Cook failed to make enough plays and we lost by 3 points having a completely depleted defense on the back 7. 
 

It is disappointing losing to the Chiefs again, but realistically most every other team in the league has done so too in the last 5-6 years. I thought the team rallied around McDermott this year and that showed me something. I understand the frustration but it really makes no sense to get rid of the bird in hand that has this team as a contender year in and year out. 

 

Good post.

 

I was one of those who was starting to believe that it was time to bring an end to the McDermott era when we were 6-6 and lost to the Eagles after some questionable decisions. Then the team went 5-0 to end the season, beating some good teams in the process. Hard to imagine wanting to fire a head coach that oversaw such a closeout to gain the #2 overall seed in the the AFC, when they were on the outside looking in just 5 weeks before.

 

And it is also hard for me to lay much blame at the feet of McDermott for what went down Sunday against the Chiefs. In terms of coaching decisions, I suppose you could fault him for approving the fake punt -- but that did not cost the Bills the game given that they were fortunate to get the ball back after the fumble. Otherwise, I thought he did a good job with clock management, challenges, and having the team prepared (given the circumstances).

 

In fact, there have been numerous posts about what cost the Bills that game -- missed FG, critical dropped passes, questions about the 2nd an 9 play after the 2:00 warning, depleted defense, etc. Again, hard to blame McD for any of those.

 

How about this? Maybe the Chiefs deserve some credit for playing out of their minds on Sunday! Their receivers, who had been sub par pretty much the whole season, caught every catchable pass thrown their way. Their OL, playing on the road in a hostile setting against a healthy Buffalo DL (the one part of the defense that was healthy), was spectacular allowing almost no pressure whatsoever against Mahomes. When their own defense needed to clamp down in the 4th quarter, they did -- adjusting the stop Cook and the running game that had been carving them up the first 3 quarters.

[Beane's Offseason - Should he turn the roster over or stay the course?]

14 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Don’t really see too many changes to be honest.

Offense:

Josh Allen-stays

Cook- stays

Kincaid, Knox - stays

Dawkins - stays

McGovern - stays

Morse - ?

Torrence - Stays

Spencer Brown- stays

Diggs- stays (his contract won’t allow him to be cut or moved)

Shakir- stays

There wil be changes in the WR room for sure. Need to find a dynamic player to play next to Diggs. More than likely that’s coming through the draft. 
 

Defense:

Oliver-stays

Daquon Jones- ??

Greg Rousseau- stays

Von Miller - stays (contract won’t allow him to be moved)

 

Floyd, AJ Epenesa ( Floyd is going to be expensive and he’s an older player I’d let him walk and try to work a deal with AJ.) One of them is definitely leaving for sure.

 

Bernard- stays

Milano- stays

Dodson/Spector - stays

 

Rasual Douglas -stays

Benfrod- stays

Taron Johnson - stays

Tre White -??? Tough decision here. I’d let him walk but I don’t think McDermott will cut ties with him. More than likely I think they’ll restructure his contract and see how he is coming off the injury. 
 

Poyer/Hyde - I think one of them is gone for sure. Hyde probably being the odd man out. Poyer still a productive player

 

As far as the defense goes I don’t really see many changes there either. They have a major need at defensive end and safety. I think they only significant changes will see is at safety.  This offseason will be more about adding depth and praying to the heavens that our core guys can stay healthy!! 

 

 

I agree with most of this -- just not that Diggs and Miller necessarily have to stay based on their contracts. There are ways to rework other contracts (Josh's, Dawkins, etc) that could put us in the position of ridding us of those other inflated contracts. In Von's case (unless he suddenly finds the fountain of youth and is 100% healthy) I think that is a necessity. In Diggs' case I am still on the fence. What caused the serious regression in the 2nd half of the season? Evolving role in Brady's offense? Diminished skills? Undisclosed injury? Off-field distraction?  Depending on what that root cause was, would determine what I would want to do with him heading into 2024.

 

With or without Diggs, in addition to investing at least one high draft pick on a WR, I would be inclined to bring in at least one mid-priced free agent WR (like Beane did back in 2019 with Beasley and Brown) rather than scrap-heap guys like Beane has thrown darts at the last few seasons. Obviously we can't afford a high-priced guy like Higgins or Evans. But what about someone like Marquise Brown, Darnell Mooney, Curtis Samuel, or Josh Reynolds? Mooney could be a real sleeper going from the garbage he has had in Chicago to #17, and he is just 2 seasons removed from a 1,000-yard season.

 

Bottom line, Beane needs to hit the jackpot on some of the draft picks come April, including some late-round gems.

[The Three Plays that Cost us the Game]

IMHO the absolute worst play of the game was one that will likely be forgotten in the grand scheme of things -- but changed the trajectory of a game where both defenses were having trouble stopping both offenses. Ironically NEITHER team would score again after this play.

 

That play came on the 1st offensive drive of the 4th quarter, right after the Chiefs had just taken a 27-24 lead. On first down, Josh takes it 8 yards to set up 2nd and 2. That is a great position to be in for the offense. Either you run a high percentage play to get the 1st down -- or you run play-action to try for a big play and even if you don't convert it, you come back with a favorable 3rd and short. What do they do instead? They call a draw to Cook from shotgun -- and he gets blown up in the backfield for a 3 yard loss. Now, instead of a 1st down or 3rd and short it is 3rd and 5, which is no longer a gimme, and the next play results in a batted pass. The next play after that, of course was the failed punt attempt.

 

The Bills, of course, get lucky and get the ball back after the Hartman fumble. So what is the first play called as the Bills try to regain momentum? You guessed it, another draw to Cook from shotgun, resulting in a 4-yard loss. After a short screen to Shakir, the 3rd down-play was the deep shot to Sherfield that he dropped. So instead of seizing the momentum here, they go three-and-out and punt the ball away.

 

[Allen was legendary (even better than 13 seconds Allen)]

2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The Chiefs defense is outstanding which I am not sure is understood enough.  This game was lost on defense, if you told me the BIlls will run the ball effectively, score 24 points and have no turnovers I would have taken that.   Allowing those guys to score 27 in your house with a limited number of drives was the issue.  We can make the injury excuse but to me that is all it is, you have to scheme it up and fine a way.

This.

 

The Vegas line had it at 2.5 for the Bills and and over-under of 45.5. That means that the Vegas experts implied a 24-21.5 game. So the offense held up to their end of the bargain. The defense gave up 5.5 points than projected.

 

While it can't be denied that the defense (secondary and LBers) was a MASH unit, the DL was pretty much healthy -- and with 10 available players on that unit, they should have been fresh all game. With the Bills offense dominating time of possession that is even more the case. So the real story -- beyond everything else that happened -- is why the DL with so much invested in it was unable to pick up the slack and at least apply some pressure on Mahomes, let alone bottle up Pacheco. And any game plan (regardless of injuries) that allowed Kelce to run as wide open as he did, needs to be highly scrutinized.

 

Also, credit where it is due, the Chiefs played very well. Their WRs (aside from Rice) played terribly all season -- and even in the playoffs against Miami had a number of key drops that resulted in stalled drives leading to FGs rather than TDs. Against the Bills last night, however, I do not recall a single dropped pass on the part of KC. Of course, the Bills had a number of huge ones.

[Would the Bills have beaten the Ravens?]

Yea, with the depleted defense and lack of speed at LB there is no way they would have been able to contain Lamar as they have historically done in the past. Imagine LJ doing what Mahomes did on that one long run to start the 2nd half all game long! Speaking of that, it was sad how Douglas just watched Mahomes run right by him without even trying to make a tackle. In fact, Douglas looked out-of-sorts all game long; probably would have been better to let him sit out another week and rolled the dice with Elam.

[The Three Plays that Cost us the Game]

11 hours ago, BananaB said:

It’s definitely a possibility. Shakir catches just about everything 

 

I will have to see greater detail on the All-22, but the crossing route to Diggs also may not have been as open as it first appeared. There was a corner lurking right behind Diggs, possibly bating Josh into that throw. Remember, just a few minutes before there was a near-pick 6 jump route on an attempted pass to Diggs.

[Allen was legendary (even better than 13 seconds Allen)]

9 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

At least two of those three long passes are caught by almost any competent NFL WR.  Did you see the catch the KC WR made on the long pass to kick off the 3rd quarter which was exactly the same pay that Sherfield couldn't make?  And I don't want to hear a peep from Diggs or his brother in the off season.  NOT A FREAKING WORD.

 

 

Bingo! The difference in the game? Mahomes' much-maligned receivers caught virtually every catchable pass thrown to them -- Josh's did not.

[The pass offense still doesn't look right...right?]

Note also that against both Miami and Pittsburgh they blitzed at a heavy rate (over 50%). It is hard to get the ball downfield in those situations.

[Injuries vs Steelers - Update from McDermott]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Chiefs won't be trotting out the awful secondary that Davis took advantage of in that game... They might have the best CB duo in the league and they're all coached extremely well. I think this will need to be another Kincaid/Shakir game, with a big helping of Allen's legs. And that would be true whether Davis was playing or not.

Agreed -- and it may be time to add some wrinkles/gadget plays with Harty and see if he can get some decent YAC.

[Kansas City at Buffalo in the Divisional Round!]

11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Do you think this could be a Gabe game if he plays? 

One thing I just realized... when we played against the Chiefs earlier this season (Week 14), that was part of that series of games when Gabe went 3 out of 4 (the exception being the Philly game) without catching a single pass. It will be interesting to see what his role would be if he is indeed healthy against a team that he has had success against in the past.

[Bills release Fournette from the Practice Squad]

Interesting... wonder if he got upset about not being activated for yesterday's game and started making waves?

[Using timeouts]

I think it serves also to provide reminders in late-game key situations, especially when you do have back-ups in there. Things like:

 

"There are only 10 seconds left and they have no timeouts. Make a tackle in the field of play and the game is over!"

 

[Kansas City at Buffalo in the Divisional Round!]

10 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

I’d take advantage of their LBs which are the weak point, and Spags always has at least 1, often 2 spies on Allen. There has to be a way to exploit that to our advantage.

 

I’d run the ball down their throats, play ball control and keep Mahomes off the field. Take shots when they are available but that’s not our bread and butter.

 

Cook, Kincaid, and Shakir should feast over the middle. That’s where we win.

 

W.

 

Well, there is a certain WR who shall remain unnamed who legend has it did take it deep against the Chiefs multiple times the last time these 2 teams met in the playoffs to the tune of 200+ yards and 4 TDs. Whether or not he is healthy enough to go remains to be seen.

[Ravens/Texans: Are the Texans really being disrespected this badly?]

Add also that the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) have not exactly lit it up in the playoffs. I believe they have one win to their credit.

[Ed Oliver is playing out of his mind this season]

Kudos to a guy who had a career year the season AFTER signing a big contract!

[Wilkins getting grabby w/ Josh Allen yet again ???]

The crazy thing is that when this happened last time it was Josh who was penalized for shoving the creep after the play. Wait until Wilkins does this to everyone's fair-haired-boy Mahomes. Bet the outrage ensues then.