2003Contenders
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3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:
Great. Sounds like smart people overthinking things. You have a 6’5 240 lb. qb and you should have him qb sneak it from a half yard line out in 3rd and goal or less every darn time. You won’t lose yards and they’re not stopping you more than twice in a row.
While I agree with you, it appears that the coaching staff is worried about Josh's health (especially with the nagging shoulder) and reluctant to run this play as often as we would like.
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4 minutes ago, Process said:
Yep. Murray looked like the veteran between-the-tackles back we needed to compliment Cook earlier in the year, but as the season has gone on, it is becoming more and more apparent that he just doesn't have the juice to get through the rest of the season in a role that had become bigger with the loss of Harris.
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This one is a hard one for me to pick. Yes, the Bills and Bengals matched up twice last season. However, there is little to take away from either game.
In the Week 17 match-up last season, the game was cancelled in the 1st quarter after Hamlin's horrific injury. Up until that point neither defense seemed capable of stopping the opposing offense. Might that have resulted in a shootout over the course of a full game? Or, would one side or the other have adjusted?
In the playoffs, that is one of those games that I think from an evaluation point you simply burn the film. The Bills were clearly gassed heading into that game -- and many of the players afterwards admitted as much. Last season was a grind given all the drama on so many fronts, and it just felt like everything came crashing down that weekend. Yes, the Bengals clearly dominated that game, but they also had all of the energy.
I guess what I am saying is that it is hard to predict what will happen based on those two games from last year. It is true that our defense seemed incapable of stopping their offense in either game -- but the sample size is small and perhaps a bit deceiving. Also, the defensive game plan -- allowing 10-yard cushions against their receivers with Burrow getting rid of the ball quickly was a recipe for disaster. Of course, with Frazier gone now perhaps McD will be more aggressive. Hopefully he does not employ last year's game plan!
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Considering that we control our own destiny against both teams (maintain pace with them and beat them head-to-head), it is hard to pick which one to root for. I guess the Chiefs since the division is on the line with Miami -- and Miami has not shown that they can beat good teams. No sense giving them confidence that they can.
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I think the Bills need to approach this game like they did the Miami game. Namely, it is imperative that the offense executes -- and scores on each possession in order to keep up with the Bengals.
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Pete Rozelle's dream of parity across the NFL is here. Literally any one of several teams could represent the AFC in the Super Bowl as they all have chinks in their armor:
-- Bills are inconsistent and the defense is banged up at every position
-- Aside from Mahomes/Kelce, the KC offense is not especially talented
-- Miami reminds me of the 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars -- went 14-2 and had the #1 seed in the playoffs that year but only played one quality opponent all year (Tennessee twice) and got bounced their first game in the playoffs (by Tennessee).
-- Lamar has all-world upside -- but hard to trust him to play that way for more than 2-3 games in a row.
-- Like last year, Cinci, struggled early on (especially on offense) largely due to injuries. They appear to have righted their ship (just in time to play the Bills).
-- Cleveland's defense is legitimate -- but without a reliable/healthy QB, not sure how far they will go. Same with the Jets.
-- Pittsburgh's record is a bit of a mirage. They have won a couple of games they had no business winning thanks to fluke plays. Also, the offense does not seem capable of scoring more than 20 points on a weekly basis.
-- Jacksonville has the advantage of playing in such a weak division -- although they have not exactly cleaned up in that division so far this year. Defense is underrated and their running game is legit. T. Lawrence still hasn't shown that he is elite, however.
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On 10/28/2023 at 3:13 PM, Warcodered said:
From what I remember when we drafted Elam the issue was that we drafted defense high again instead of offense, people didn't really hate the player, there was actually excitement at maybe having another good corner opposite from Tre. People just wished we'd gone in different direction than defense early again.
I mean who really thought that Beane and McDermott would draft a CB that they wouldn't get anything out of? Like the idea just sounds absurd, it's been like the most consistent thing from McDermott. He's gotten great value out of low round and undrafted DB talent his entire time here, and the 2nd 1st round CB they take here drops down the depth chart like a ***** rock.
You are right that many fans were upset about the decision to go defense there -- especially after having gone back-to-back 1st/2nd round picks the year before with Groot and Boogie. I think what especially hurt was that with the injury to Tre (and knowing that he was likely to also miss much of the 2022 season as well) EVERYONE knew that the Bills were in the market for a CB. This is the perfect example of why you do not draft exclusively for need. To make matters worse, while it may have been a positional need, clearly Elam was not a great fit for what McD wants in his corners. This may have been the classic example of a coaching staff believing that they could take a physically talented player and "coach him up". Perhaps Elam's current status with the team suggests that he is not as coachable as they hoped he would be?
The popular pick for the Bills at the time (by many fans and pundits alike) was Breece Hall. He dropped to the 2nd round to the Jets. Have to wonder how much differently things may have gone if the Bills had made that pick -- especially not knowing at the time that the late-round pick of Benford would help soften the apparent miss on Elam.
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20 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
despite him showing in camp he had immediate chemistry with Allen, and he has speed we badly need...
the staff hasn't "had long enough to trust his process"
that would be my guessAlso, he is tiny. Like 5'6" so not much of a catch radius. Still, he has made some key plays the last 2 weeks, so I believe he merits more looks in the offense.
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Funny thing is that many were complaining about Dorsey's lack of creativity last week when Cook ran the ball all 6 times that the situation was 2nd and short. Yet, Cook converted a first down on 5 out of 6 of those situations. So I am not complaining. Also, maybe that perceived tendency will open the playbook up in those 2nd and short situations.
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I think getting Ed back would be a huge shot in the arm to the pass rush, which was nearly non-existent against Mac Jones last week. Baker likes to hold onto the ball and is not especially elusive, so the opportunity should be there to get some pressure on him.
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2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:
Now that BB’s game plan is on film, every team is going to do exactly that until the Bills figure out how to beat it.
Well, I am hopeful that the Bills did figure out how to beat it. Scored TDs on 3 of 4 possessions in the 2nd half (not counting the desperate last 12 seconds). Maybe a 4th down drop from Knox away from going 4 for 4. The key beginning Thursday will be to make the necessary adjustments sooner.
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27 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:
What made it so bad was not that it was missed. The flag was thrown. Calls get missed all the time, but It wasn't missed. It was picked up.
I suppose the thought could be that the possible infraction had no bearing on the play given that the center did not actually block anyone. But that is not for the officials to decide. It smells of the NY office calling down to the field to tell the officials to pick the flag up so that Billy B. could get a shot at winning #300 at home. Not saying that is what happened, but sometimes perception is reality.
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If you told me ahead of time that Josh would complete 65% of his passes against the Pats, toss 2 TD passes and rush for another, convert on a 2-point conversion, and have only one turnover, I would have expected that the Bills would have beaten the Patriots going away. The play of the admittedly depleted defense -- coupled with (and give them credit where it is due) Mac Jones and the Patriots offense playing out of their minds -- is what cost the Bills the game.
That said...
There are certainly things that Josh can do better. Three games in a row now opposing defenses have done a good job of making him uncomfortable, which has resulted in some timing/poor decision issues. Dorsey needs to design and call more plays that help to get the ball out of his hand quickly. And Josh needs to deliver on those plays rather than look for the kill shot every time. Like the old saying goes, "You will never go broke if you make a profit every time".
The bad news is that the defense is likely going to be a season-long problem as (barring a significant trade) I don't see reinforcements on their way. So it is going to be important for Josh and the offense to score. Hopefully, the performance by the offense in the 2nd half against the Pats will help to ignite them. If nothing else, maybe he has some faith in Kincaid now as another reliable, chain-moving weapon.
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My theory is that immediately after last Sunday night's game against the Giants, Bill B. gave his buddy B. Daboll a call to ask him what deficiencies in Josh's game could be exploited.
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I do sense a bit of loss in confidence on Josh's part -- but I think it is confidence he has lost in his teammates and play calling rather than confidence in himself. It's hard to blame him. Yesterday, he had trouble setting his feet before seeing pressure in his face. One play in particular we had 6 OL -- and a pass rusher STILL managed to get through. Meanwhile our own pass rush failed to pressure Jones really at all -- but that is a different topic...
One thing I noticed/remember back in 2020 was how Josh's receivers were going all out to reel in difficult/contested catches for him. In particular, I remember the season opener against the Jets back then when he had a couple of bone-headed fumbles but still managed to fit the ball into tight windows and wound up with his first 300-yard game of his career. That was followed the next week by his first 400-yard game (against Miami). I thought at the time that perhaps it was the "Diggs" effect, as this was Diggs' first season with the Bills, he was making great catches and the emphasis was also rubbing off on other guys.
It seems that we just are not seeing those great bale-out catches this year. Even from Diggs, who HAS been remarkable in 2023. For example, while Diggs had that great play on the TD, he also failed to haul in a couple of slightly off-target throws that we have seen him catch multiple times in the past. At the end of the game, Josh threw possibly his finest pass of the season with 12 seconds left, a pass that went 50 yards in the air on a rope that hit Diggs right in the hands. Was a torch like that easy to handle? Certainly not, but we have seen Diggs catch similar passes many times (in the final seconds against Detroit last Thanksgiving, for example). A catch there would have set us up at the 30 yard line with one play to go. A pass from the 30 yard line is by no means a sure thing -- but it is also not a Hail Mary.
The play calling is off -- but so is the design of far too many plays. It really does seem like everything the offense does seems to take so much effort. We saw the stat line showing how much more effective Josh is when the ball comes out of his hand quickly. Yet we see so few well constructed quick-hitting slants, etc. Maybe much of this is on Josh as he wants to forego such a play and try for something bigger downfield. There were times when he was flushed from the pocket and was unable to see an open receiver on the other side of the field -- but there were also far too many plays where he alluded a pass rusher, rolled out and every receiver was covered. It just seems like the receivers just are not getting separation on a consistent basis. Not sure how much of this is play design (like 3 receivers in the same vicinity) and how much of it is lack of talent from receivers not named Diggs. And, for the love of God, can we stop going to Knox in critical situations?
It is promising that Kincaid was such a factor yesterday -- and his hands appear to be for real. Maybe Josh will form a trust with him similar to what he had with Beasley and help get this offense back in gear.
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Given the huge injuries to the defensive side of the ball, I agree that getting a DT to replace Jones is paramount. Missing both him and Oliver yesterday was huge. I would also like to see a decent CB brought in. Elam's days here appear to be numbered (ironically, maybe he could be part of a trade package) and Dane Jackson has not been good either this year.
Honestly, if we bring in someone on the offensive side of the ball, I would be more inclined to make a move for an OT than a receiver. The whole line struggled yesterday. Even when Brown has "decent" days it is usually because he has had to get help from a TE chipping -- which limits the ability of the TEs to make big plays in the passing game. That said, Dalton did have a coming out party yesterday, so hopefully that continues. All of this is to say that I would not break the bank (and future draft compensation) to bring in a WR that likely won't get heavily targeted anyway -- but if there is a dude out there with reliable hands that can consistently convert on 1st downs I would be all for it.
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10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:
That's because it would've been a really stupid question as we needed to make sure we scored a touchdown to take the lead. You take 2nd and goal from the 1/2 yard line over first and goal from the two every time.
Also, accepting the penalty would have STOPPED the clock which is counter to the point that it was a mistake to decline it and have one fewer down to eat clock. So I definitely agree that McD made the right choice.
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Not sure if the OP is trolling us -- but maybe there is some merit to his point. That is, there was simply no excuse for the performance we just saw by the Buffalo Bills. And actually LOSING a game like this, rather than luckily squeaking by as we did last Sunday night against the Giants is more liable to create a valid sense of urgency and force the coaches to realize that there are serious problems that need to be addressed immediately.
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Knowing BB, I imagine the Pats game plan will be something like the following:
On offense, they will do their best to hide/protect Mac Jones by having him drop back to pass a minimal number of times. Maybe not to the extreme of the blizzard game from 2 years ago -- but I expect them to focus on the run and probably use a base with 6 offensive linemen hoping to get past our defensive line, which is missing our best interior run stuffer, and engulf our undersized LBs. If they have success doing this, it will allow them to control the game-flow and limit the number of possessions that our offense has. It also opens up their play-action passing game.
On defense, BB's goal has always been to try to eliminate the opponent's best player. That would be Diggs. And he has indeed done a pretty good job of limiting Diggs in the last few contests. This is a game where we need to see the other complimentary parts of the offense step up. Ironically, it was McK who stepped up against the Pats to make up for this in the last few contests we played against them. Could this be a breakout game for Hardy possibly?
The Bills are the better team and should be able to take care of business if the offense gets out of the funk they've had for the last couple of weeks and the defense can get off the field on 3rd down (or better, yet force turnovers). If we can jump on them early and get ahead by multiple scores, it could get ugly for them. But if we don't come out sharp, this has he makings of a real dogfight.
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1 hour ago, Success said:
It's good to remember.
Against the Giants, we drove to their side of the field pretty often - but were derailed there by mistakes most of the time. 2 missed FG's, and one punt that should have been another attempt. One tipped pass for INT, and the fumble from Davis when we were rolling on a drive. There was also the PI that wasn't called.
Seemed like almost a "Murphy's Law" kind of thing where just about every drive was undone w/ errors. But it wasn't like we couldn't move the ball.
Not to mention 2 deep passes that looked like they would have connected minus "tangled feet".
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I would say that it probably was DPI and a flag COULD have been thrown there.
But I will also say that it was not a "missed" call, as the official was right there, literally a few feet away from the play. He was just outside the endzone -- so he had a great view of the play as well as what transpired during the whole sequence. My guess is that he saw the initial contact made by Waller and the continued hand fighting that went on between both players and elected to keep the flag in his pocket. I think that was reasonable.
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9 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:
Yep. I said this when they first announced that they were going to fly out on Thursday night. I’ll say again, as I said then though, maybe they didn’t have a place to go to set up shop for the week and practice. Hard to imagine the latter, but who knows. Maybe they told the league weeks ago that they were going over on Thursday night, and even if they decided at the last minute that they wanted to spend the week there, by then, all available venues were booked up/not available.
In any case, that’s still not the reason why they lost. Poor execution and poor play calling on offense is why they lost.
McD and crew did their research on the travel protocol for heading over to London -- and reached out to teams who had made multiple trips over there for advice. The consensus was that Thursday evening travel was the best prescribed day/time for departure. What was lost in this equation was that historically BOTH teams had to travel over there during the same week -- and historically we have seen sloppy play in these games due to the change in typical weekly preparation by BOTH teams. In this case -- and for the first time ever -- the Bills were facing an opponent who did not have to endure the same turmoil they did during the days leading up to the game. As we saw this turned out to be a HEAVY advantage for the Jags -- and I doubt that the NFL will try this again given the unfair competitive imbalance that it clearly presented. The "experiment" failed.
You are right that the play calling and execution left a great deal to be desired. And I certainly was (am) not happy with Dorsey in particular. Yes, the Jags clearly looked sharper -- had FAR fewer missed tackles and significantly better 3rd down conversion rates. But I submit to you that this was more of a by-product of the advantage in weekly preparation, rest, etc. that the Jags experienced more so than any commentary on the quality of coaching. In fact, given the time of possession domination, etc., the fact that the Bills were only down 11-7 heading into the 4th quarter may say a thing or two about the quality of the Bills coaching.
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While I agree that there were plenty of other reasons why the Bills lost on Sunday -- officiating absolutely played a role.
To me the worst was the "completed pass" that McD challenged. Even the Jags knew it was incomplete and tried to hustle to the line of scrimmage to get another play off before the challenge flag came out. That ball CLEARLY came out as the defender was rolling around on the ground and prior to a "football move".
Inexplicably the challenge failed and it was deemed a catch. Even the NFL Network's rules guru had a a hard time explaining why the call was upheld -- just something about the receiver being touched down which effectively ended the play prior to he ball popping out. Even Kurt Warner thought that was BS.
That call by the refs (and apparently New York) provided the Jags with yet another 3rd down conversion AND cost the Bills a much needed timeout. It may have seemed like no big deal -- but it definitely played a role in the outcome of the game.
Same with the OPI call that negated a TD. It is easy to say that did not matter because the Bills answered back with a TD on the very next play. But the requirement of another play took about 10 seconds off the clock. That would have been pretty valuable at the end of the game, right?
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Read an article this morning stating that, after insisting that Jeudy and Sutton were both off limits in the preseason, the Broncos are now making it known that Sutton may be available after all.
Week 9 thread - We’re on to Cincinnati
in The Stadium Wall
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That is true. Also, there is a reason why Purdy was the last player selected in the 2022 draft. He has operated in Shanahan's offense brilliantly, but his physical talent is somewhat limited. There is now ample film is out on him and defenses are beginning to figure him out.