[53 Man Roster and Practice Squad]

Here's my projected roster, practice squad and candidates to be dropped in favor of waiver wire pickups:

 

53 Man Roster

QB - Edwards, Fitzpatrick, Brohm

RB - Spiller, Jackson, Lynch, Bell

FB - McIntyre

OL - D. Bell, Levitre, Hangartner, Wood, Green, Meredith, Wang, Chambers, Howard

TE - Stupar, Schouman, Foschi

WR - Evans, Johnson, Parrish, Nelson, Jackson

DL - Stroud, Williams, Edwards, Troup, Carrington, Johnson,

LB - Poz, Davis, Ellis, Kelsay, Maybin, Torbor, Moats, Coleman, Mitchell

CB - McGee, Florence, McKelvin, Corner, Youboty

S - Whitner, Byrd, Scott, Wilson, C. Harris

ST - Moorman, Lindell, Sanborn

 

Practice Squad: Levi Brown, Rashaad Duncan, Dominique Harris, N. Roosevelt, D. Jones, K. Calloway, L. Harvey

 

Guys to be replaced by free agent pickups: Chambers, Foschi

 

Notable cuts: Keith Ellison, John McCargo, James Hardy, Chad Simpson

 

We'll know in about 18 hours...

[Should bills keep Hardy?]

I do not think they will keep 6 WRs. With Wang hurt all preseason but pretty much assured to make the team they need 3 healthy backups on the line so they will have to keep 9. There were a lot of hints last night regarding who has made the team and who is fighting for a job. Nelson played with the first team for a second straight game so he's in (plus he came through again). Joique Bell didn't play RB and Parrish didn't play at all so they're on the team. Keeping 4 RBs means they probably don't have room for 6 WRs unless they go with only 2 TEs (unlikely, though with Nelson suspended they only have 1 healthy, viable TE on the roster).

 

Every preseason fans obsess about the final 3-5 spots on the team. The reality is that those final 3-5 guys will be inactive every week. As for the receivers, Evans, Johnson and Parrish will play, Nelson gets on the field as a 4th receiver. I think Spiller gets split out wide in special packages. Chad Jackson makes the team and is a special teamer.

 

So IF they kept Hardy, he doesn't suit up on Sunday so he (again) is relegated to a developmental guy. They have one on IR already: Marcus Easley. Between him and Nelson the are good (not to mention Donald Jones and/or N. Roosevelt probably land on the practice squad).

 

Nobody should lose any sleep over releasing Hardy.

 

One other thing on cuts/practice squad: rightly or wrongly, the Bills are picked to finish in the bottom 1/3 of the league. With the exception of DBs and maybe RBs, no team is going to spend much time scouring the Bills' cuts for possible pickups. That includes Levi Brown. The reality is that there are not a lot of developmental players that any team cuts that they try to get through to put on the practice squad. I wonder if it is almost an unwritten rule or a courtesy/understanding the teams have with each other. I'm not worried about them losing prize prospects by trying to get them through to put on the practice squad.

[Farewell to all, you guys are great fans.... I mean that!]

For what it's worth, the only Bills player who officially was on the roster from '67 through '72 was Dick Cunningham, OT, Arkansas.

 

You are correct, there are a couple that are close (Howard Kindig 67-71 then played for Miami in 72, John Pitts, 67-72 and a couple of games in 73) and Paul Costa played from 65-72 and Paul Guidry 66-72.

[LT, then QB in 2011 Draft?]

Here is how the current starting NFL QBs were acquired:

 

1st round draft picks: 18 (E. Manning, P. Manning, Brees, Bradford, Cutler, Campbell, Flacco, Freeman, McNabb, Palmer, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Sanchez, A. Smith, Stafford, Young, Rivers, Ryan)

 

2nd round picks: 3 (Favre-#33 overall, Kolb-#36 and Henne-#57)

 

3rd rounders: 2 (Edwards, Schaub)

 

4th round: 2 (Garrard, Orton)

 

6th round: 3 (Brady, Hasselbeck, D. Anderson)

 

7th round: 1 (Cassel)

 

Undrafted: 3 (Delhomme, Romo, Moore)

 

While there is a significant number of 1st round QBs that don't make it, over half are first rounders and Favre and Kolb went really early in the 2nd. Only 4 non-1st or 2nd rounders have had any sustained success (Brady, Romo, Delhomme an Hasselbeck).

 

 

I find it interesting that there's more success finding QBs in the 6th and 7th round or undrafted FAs than getting one in the middle (3-5) rounds.

 

What's the takeaway from all of this: a team's best chance at landing a franchise QB is finding the right one in the first round. Odds are the Bills will be looking to get one in the first round of the '11 draft.

[Hardest camp decisions]

i think it will be 6 WRs/8 OLs.

 

The reason I think it will be 5 WRs and 9 OL is that they will most likely split Spiller out wide on occasion in which case he becomes the defacto 6th WR. They will want to keep Wang active so that will require them to keep 9 OL. Bell, Levitre, Hangartner, Wood, Green, Meredith and Wang make 7, then it's either Chambers or Calloway for #8 and probably Cordaro Howard or Andre Ramsey for the 9th spot. They may think they can sneak Calloway through to the practice squad and keep Chambers, which would be kind of amazing to think the guy continues to hang on.

 

The argument for a 6th WR would be to play special teams but Chad Jackson and David Nelson will play ST and then they'll probably use George Wilson, Bryan Scott, Ashton Youboty and Reggie Corner on ST too. That gives them 6 fast, smallish guys. The rest of the ST spots will be dominated by LBs and TEs (when they get healthy).

 

The other strike against a 6th WR would be that they would want a developmental guy who is going to be inactive on Sundays. They have that in Easley, who is on the IR and most likely Roosevelt and/or Donald Jones will be on the practice squad.

[Hardest camp decisions]

Are there any other camp battles I missed?

 

PTR

 

 

Arthur Moats/Keith Ellison

Kirk Chambers/Kyle Calloway

 

On defense, if they keep 10 DBS there's probably nine that are a lock (Whitner, Byrd, Scott, Wilson, McGee, Florence, McKelvin, Corner, Youboty). #10 is probably between Lankster and Cary Harris.

 

Also, presuming that they keep 25 defensive players, they will carry either a 7th DL or a 9th LB. That spot may come down to Antonio Coleman, John McCargo or Rashaad Duncan. You could even throw in Lonnie Harvey.

 

Hardy or Nelson

 

I don't give Hardy much of a chance. I don't think they chance sneaking Nelson through to the practice squad.

 

The offensive breakdown is most likely 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 1 FB, 5 WRs, 3 TEs, 9 OL.

 

The receivers look like Evans, Johnson, Parrish, Nelson and Chad Jackson, probably in that order.

 

25 offense, 25 defense, 3 special teams.

[Should we hope the bills lose games, like Jerry Sullivan said?]

Two issues here:

 

(1) Journalists: Some of the realities that writers are facing today are:

(a) Print newspapers are moving closer and closer to extinction, thus threatening their jobs;

(b) The reading public has a lot more opportunities to give feedback in a very public way;

© To attract readers/bloggers, etc. they have to be more provocrative or controversial

 

As a result, they tend to take more extreme views on things and can be more sensitive to criticism. Sullivan is a good writer but he now has created a rather cantankerous persona through his columns and radio spots on WGR, and I think he feels some obligation to live up to that reputation. Unfortunately, overshadows his writing, which generally is good, whether you agree with him or not.

 

(2) Tanking the season for high draft picks: If this was the formula for success then the LA Clippers in the NBA would be a dynasty. The draft is a crapshoot, especially when it comes to QBs. In addition to that, players and coaches are always going to try to win.

 

Now, the question here really is what do we do as fans. As a fan, I don't think you root for a team to lose. There is a lot to be said about creating a culture of winning. The Denny Green line "They are who we thought they are" (or something to that effect) is true. I think we root for the team and look for signs that the team is on the road to improvement. When it comes draft time you use the picks to get better. If you really like a QB and your pick is too low you go and make the deal.

 

The reality is that a lot of the poor teams have their QBs for the future (Lions, Bucs, Raiders, Rams, maybe even Browns) so if the Bills win games and end up in that 8-13 range they may have natural trade partners ahead of them.