jwhit34
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Posts posted by jwhit34
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Harvin is a known commodity, he was there for the OTAs and practices up until last week right before the preseason game. If Kyle Orton can come in cold a week before the season and start the last 12 games at QB I am sure that this coaching staff has a firm handle on what Percy Harvin can do and will develop the necessary chemistry with the offense.
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I think gunner's list is pretty accurate, though I think there will be a couple of surprises:
WR: I think Goodwin makes it but either Easley or Hogan gets cut. In terms of receivers, I don't know how often they will use 4 in formations, and for rotation purposes they would use Harvin and Woods as slot receivers in 3 wide sets. That makes Hogan expendable, I would think they would opt to get Goodwin's speed on the field in one of the wide spots.
RB: Agree that Dixon could be odd man out.
TE: My bet is they keep 4 an O'Leary is one of them.
CB: Wouldn't be shocked if McKelvin starts the season on the short term IR and they go with 5, with maybe one on the practice squad, which could be Cockrell.
S and DL: I think they keep 1 more safety (Meeks) and 1 less DL (either Carrington or Wynn)
By the way, I know they haven't played a single game that counts, but the team seems to have come up with some players in the draft despite not having a 1 and 4. Miller looks really good, Darby had a rough night but has potential, and Karlos Williams looks like a player.
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Between the three QBs they are $8 million against the cap, which has to be in the bottom 25% of the league so there is absolutely no salary cap implications keeping all three. I don't see where they don't keep all three.
All did pretty well tonight, don't forget that the one pass that Cassel had that was incomplete should have been caught by Hogan, otherwise he's 8-8. He also had a nice pass to Watkins that was negated by a penalty. So Cassel was pretty good. The thing with Taylor is that if he's the starter teams will game plan for him and a lot of those runs go away. A good example was the third and long that he scrambled, the Panthers' D did a good job at contain and he picked up a few yards but the result was 4th and 3. It was like what happened with the Browns and Manziel last year, he comes in the first series vs. Buffalo and he scrambles around and they score. Then, the Bills picked up on what he does and shut him down, and then the rest of the league had film on him and he did nothing in the remaining games that he played. That's the risk with Taylor.
Overall, the 2 things I took from tonight in terms of the QBs are (10 they all can execute to some degree; and (2) this coaching staff/Roman is very good at tailoring the offense to the personnel's strengths. They called plays that would work for them. The other thing is that the running game is going to be way, way better. John Miller may end up a real steal as a third round pick, he looked very good.
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Something just didn't add up with the offensive line under Marrone. Once Urbik went into the lineup last year, they had 4 of the 5 guys that comprised the final Chan Gailey line (Glenn, Urbik, Wood, Pears) though Pears and Urbik were in different positions. With 80% of the same personnel, and presumably Wood in the prime of his career and Glenn on the rise, it is hard to believe that the play dropped off that much.
Even if Urbik ends up starting again I am mildly optimistic that they will be better. I'm looking for Wood to return to form, Glenn's career to pick back up where he left off in 2012-13, Henderson to utilize his athletic talents and make a big step forward this year, Incognito to be a good citizen and be decent, and then have them figure out the 5th spot. You can't have stars at every position and if they have to plug one of the guard spots so be it.
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Brees is more talented. Bradford has showed signs of being a good QB. His stats:
2012 - 16 games, 3,702 yards (231/game), 21 TDs, 13 int.
2013 - 7 games, 1,687 yards (241/game), 14 TDs, 4 int.
In 2013, the Rams' leading receivers were Jared Cook (671 yards), Chris Givens (569) and Tavon Austin (418). In 2012 they were led by Givens (698) and Brandon Gibson (691).
He did pretty well with below average receivers and a running game that was nowhere near the Bills (2012 - Stephen Jackson in decline and '13 was Zac Stacy, a decent back but not as good as Spiller and Jackson).
Yes, he's had 2 ACL injuries, it would carry risk, but if he can pass a physical exam is he less risky than EJ or another veteran QB?
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Sam Bradford will probably not be retained by the Rams, it is cost prohibitive to do so given his injury history. So, he will probably be available just like Drew Brees was back in the mid 2000s. The Bills may be the best fit for him and be the most attractive option for him for the following reasons:
1. A good young WR corps.
2. Overall talent on the team, especially on defense.
3. A clear-cut path to being the #1 QB.
4. The Bills can probably outspend other contenders for his services.
I think it would be brilliant - they don't have a 1st round pick, EJ is not looking very good, the Bills have the roster to win now. The one bad thing is the O-line but it has potential, if they could sign a serviceable guard they probably would be pretty good.
I say start the Bradford to Buffalo campaign now a la Takeo Spikes.
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It's not just the Sheppard/Hughes trade. These moves have all been pretty good too:
1. Trade for Mike Williams - yes, I know he hasn't played a regular season game yet but that has all the makings of a good trade.
2. Free agent pickups Brandon Spikes and Corey Graham.
3. Getting a 4th for Stevie Johnson when he was clearly extra baggage.
4. Dan Carpenter pickup.
5. Whether you like EJ Manuel or not, trading down from 8 to 15 and picking up a 2nd and then drafting Kiko Alonso was terrific.
6. Signing Kyle Orton.
7. Personally, I love the Sammy Watkins trade up. I think he will be vindicated on that one because I think Watkins will be a top 3-5 receiver in the league.
There are moves that haven't worked out (re-signing Branch, but who knew he would totally take the money and become a slug?), waiting on a backup QB can be criticized, but overall I think Whaley's the best GM the Bills have ever had except for Polian. He's better than Butler, who was a fantastic scout but not a great GM (rode the Polian coattails for the most part).
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If you haven't heard it, go to WGR's site and listen, it was a great interview.
One of the things I found curious was that Tasker named Kelly, Thurman, Hull and Talley as team leaders and the most vocal. Notably absent was Bruce Smith, which made me draw parallels to Mario Williams. I don't envision Mario being a team leader I think on defense it will be Kyle Williams, Aaron Williams and eventually Alonso and Gilmore.
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I agree with the no FB, would keep 9 OL if the draft picks show potential (essentially 1 developmental player that they don't want to chance sneaking through to practice squad) and 1 additional front 7 defender (either DL or LB, keep the best player regardless of position, maybe someone to help on special teams).
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Good points on some of the others with potential, especially on the O-line, though I think starting 2 rookies is a bit risky. If RIchardson pans out I envision that more as a 2015 move.
One of the other camp battles that should be interesting is Hopkins vs. Carpenter. Ultimately I don't think it impacts the W-L record but it could be an intriguing matchup.
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If you go position by position, it's pretty clear the roster is way better today vs. the end of 2013:
QB: Same players, Manuel should be better in year 2.
RB/FB: Addition of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon more than offsets any potential decline from Fred Jackson due to age. CJ Spiller is in a contract year which usually is a good thing.
WR: Watkins and Williams in, Stevie Johnson out, Woods and Goodwin will improve in year 2 of their pro careers - major improvement.
TE: If 2013 was a career year for Chandler and Moeaki can't come back from injury, then the TEs could be marginally worse, but that may be a worse case scenario.
O-LINE: Glenn should continue to get better, Wood is in prime of his career, Urbik could be a little worse, but Williams is an improvement over Legursky/Brown and Kuoandjio should be better than Pears. Depth should improve too if Henderson is a player.
OFFENSE OVERALL: Has to be a lot better.
DL: This is probably the biggest question mark compared to last year. Can Kyle and Mario Williams match 2013? Can Dareus keep out of trouble and contine to progress? Does the switch to more of a base 4-3 make the group less effective? Were the results posted by Lawson and Hughes a product of the scheme and can they contribute in a 4-3? There's a lot of talent (4 former first rounders and a 5th rounder who has made the Pro Bowl twice).
LBS: Brandon Spikes is a huge upgrade, Kiko should be better. The 3rd LB will probably only play about 40-50% of the plays so if they can get something out of Rivers or the rookie Brown this group should be better, especially against the run.
DBS: The loss of Byrd is a big blow, but keep in mind he was a factor in 8-9 games. Gilmore was effective in only 6-7 games because of injury. The addition of Corey Graham is the unsung move of the offseason. Aaron Williams will be better in year 2 as a safety.
DEFENSE OVERALL: The pass D may take a little step back but the run defense should be a lot better.
SPECIAL TEAMS: PK is in good hands, need to find a new punter. The special teams will be better because the roster is more talented which means the backups that play ST will be better. I wish they would have upgraded the coaching.
This team is very, very young. Here are the players who are entering their 3rd year in the league or less or at their present position for only the 2nd year:
Manuel, Woods, Goodwin, Glenn, Watkins, Kuoandjio, Bryce Brown, Alonso, Gilmore, A. Williams, possibly Searcy or Duke Williams.
What it translates into wins is the big question and much more important than evaluating the talent on paper but one cannot dispute that they have done a pretty terrific job transforming this roster in two offseasons both from a talent and age perspective
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This is a good, low-risk move. Thinking about drafting a WR at #9 overall, consider the makeup of the WR corps. The Bills would have Stevie Johnson then a rookie (let's just say Evans for the moment) and two, 2nd year guys (Woods, Goodwin) to be paired with a 2nd year QB who only finished 9 games. This way they potentially have a veteran to pair with the young QB.
The moves the Bills are making indicate to me that they think they are on the verge of making the playoffs. They added depth guys on defense in free agency plus Brandon Spikes. The signing of C. Williams for OG plugs a hole (and with the Levitre move last year shows how much they value guards).
Marrone and Moore know the guy and were willing to take another chance on him. This really opens up a lot of possibilities for them in the draft. They can stand pat and take the player they like the best. If Matthews or Robinson fall to them, they will probably pounce on them. Maybe they really like Ebron.
They can also trade down and get more picks in a deep draft. Maybe someone really wants Evans at 9 and is willing to move up 4-7 spots and give up a mid-2nd rounder. They may be able to still get Ebron or Lewan.
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The problem with rookie QBs is that they don't have a body of work to evaluate. If one of the top QBs have a game remotely like Manuel's on Sunday, it's shrugged off because there are many that are good. Since Manuel only has 5 games in his career, this is 20%+ of his body of work, which is not a big enough sample size.
Teams have dud games, so I don't think they are going to end up in the top 5 or 6. However, if they do, there are 2 teams with 2 #1 picks this year, St. Louis (their own and Washington's) and Cleveland (their own and Indy's). Cleveland needs a QB and the Bills and Rams did the deal last year, so maybe both are options to trade down. Trading down worked well this year why not do it again?
Draft needs: OL (RT or G), CB, TE
I think between Johnson, Woods and Goodwin they have 3 good WRs if the right one fell I'd take but maybe not in 1st round.
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I have to say I would trade Spiller.
Cleveland took a lot of heat for trading Trent Richardson but they got good value for him. Spiller and RB's are not the answer in the NFL. They aren't even in the question anymore. As many on here point out, their ability to pass block is probably more important than their ability to run. This team has only one asset of any value - Spiller.
Go ahead and accuse me of trading away the good players. I ask you what is the chance he resigns with the team? At 6 yards a carry last year how many wins did that translate into? This team needs multiple OL, multiple TE's, a gamebreaking WR, two DB's, and now a DE.
It is time to make up for yet another bad decsion by Nix and build this team around the o-line, EJ, and the passing game like every other succesful team is doing.
If RBs "are not the answer in the NFL" and blocking is more important than running, why would anyone be interested in trading for him? And since RBs aren't valued, how can Spiller be the "one asset of any value"?
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Back in the 1990s I came up with what I called The Don Beebe Theory, which I defined as the propensity for fans of a team to vastly overrate role of marginal players on their favorite team.
The reasons I chose to name it the Don Beebe Theory was the over-infatuation with him. Fans talked about Beebe as if he was a real difference maker and a premier 2nd/3rd receiver. The facts are that his career highs with the Bills were 40 receptions (1994), 554 yards ('92) and 6 TDs ('91, and I think 4 came in the Pittsburgh game). Jamie Mueller had more receptions than he did in one season (1990, 16- vs. 11). In the years he played, 6 guys (Reed, Lofton, Thurman, McKellar, Metzellars, Bill Brooks) had at least 1 season with more than his career-high season of 40 catches.
So, who fits the Don Beebe theory now?
1. Marcus Easley - He's been here 4 years, and though he's had stints on the IR, people still talk about him like he's going to emerge as the the next elite big receiver. The fact is that he probably gets cut if Brad Smith is healthy, and Chris Hogan is ahead of him on the depth chart.
2. Alex Carrington - Though he's played much better in '12 and '13, he's merely a rotational player who happened to block some kicks last year (part of the Don Beebe folklore is stripping Leon Lett in the Super Bowl so the blocked kicks kind of fall into the same category).
There are a few that have the potential too (Ron Brooks, Arthur Moats, even Jeff Tuel - backup QBs are always great for this as are 4th-6th receivers). Other recent examples were Naaman Roosevelt and David Nelson.
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I was there, it was plenty loud enough and into the game. Maybe not on par with the Super Bowl years or some of the special games (Dallas Monday night has been mentioned a lot) but Bucky is way off base.
EJ was just excited. I thought it was neat and the crowd loved it, he was right in front of our section (135).
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Notice that most of the practice squad players that are signed are not by the team that let them go. It totally makes sense. So in Rogers' case, the Bills have seen him through OTAs and all of camp, and he wasn't good enough to be the 6th receiver on the team. While there may be some exceptions (Blatnick this year), why bring a guy back that wasn't good enough to be the last player kept on a position on your team? Teams are better off taking a look at other players for the most part.
There are a few exceptions, and there always are 1 or 2 that were tougher cuts that you want back as developmental, and some could argue that Rogers falls into that category but I like that they bring in other people that clearly they had on their radar.
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Rogers is a classic example of one of the things I find simultaneously amusing and exasperating every year: in this case it's the overemphasis/angst over the 6th receiver spot. We all love it when the Bills find the low round draft choice or UDFA that makes it (Charlie Romes for the real old timers, Howard Ballard, Jason Peters, for that matter Stevie Johnson) but when you look at this team, the top 4 receivers (Johnson, Woods, Graham and Goodwin) are locked in, hopefully for the foreseeable future. It doesn't preclude a better one coming around, but they have made big time draft investments in upgrading their receiving corps and if they all pan out the #6 won't be active on game day and #5 (presumably Brad Smith) will mostly be a special teamer.
It's fun to think they found someone no one else did, but let's hope their investment of a high 2nd and two 3rd rounders are hits and we never have to worry about the 6th receiver making a big contribution.
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Players drafted after Maybin: Brian Cushing, Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews, Percy Harvin, Michael Oher, LeSean McCoy
I think those names are why the pick is so infuriating. If the Bills pick Orakpo, Matthews or Harvin it goes down as one of the best drafts in their history (to add to Wood, Byrd and Levitre).
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With EJ Manuel at QB and the new receivers, most of the focus for the team has been on offense. However, should we be looking at the defense more and have higher expectations? Look at the personnel, the Bills have a lot of high draft picks on the defensive side of the ball:
1st rounders: Gilmore, McKelvin, Manny Lawson, Jerry Hughes, Dareus, M. Williams
2nd rounders: Byrd, A. Williams, Alonso
Add to that group Kyle Williams and Alex Carrington.
While draft position isn't necessarily indicative of performance, it does show that the team has a lot of highly touted (at least at some point) players. The secondary, considered the most suspect, has nothing but 1st and high 2nd rounders (though thin after that). There are also a lot of young players, but as much as the talent level is talked about on offense, particularly the receivers, there is a lot of talent on defense and if Pettine and the rest of the defensive coaches can productively channel and develop that talent it could make for a strong defense.
Remember, last year there was a lot of optimism but it is pretty universally thought that it was about as bad a coaching job as could be in '12.
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Also was at camp today. Some observations:
1. Kickers: It's only 1 day, but it was rough. The two are a total contrast in styles. Hopkins has a powerful leg but at least today was erratic. Lindell didn't fare much better but made more and some of the longer kicks were not pretty but made it through the uprights. There was no contest on kickoffs, Hopkins was deeper and had more hang time.
2. Manuel struggled some, had some good throws, but probably not his best day. He had a beauty to (I think) Fred Jackson in 7-on-7s. When he was in trouble he seemed to have a good grasp of his options to get rid of it without risking a turnover except the one Alonso picked off.
3. The OL officially concerns me, especially the depth. I think the starters will be okay. In the individual work, Wood, Glenn and Urbik were fine, I didn't see Pears or Legursky, but the backups seem to get beat routinely. In the 11-on-11s, there seemed to be a lot of pressure.
4. The receivers didn't wow me, especially Da'rick Rogers. Johnson, Woods, Graham, Goodwin and Brad Smith look like locks, if they keep 6 it would appear to be wide open right now and I wouldn't hold my breath on them keeping the hyphen (Da'rick, that is).
5. Gilmore is the best player on the defense.
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Levitre was a really good player for them, but they will have the other 4 back this year, so that's pretty good continuity. Added to that is the fact that the most likely scenario is that either Brown, Hairston or Sanders fills LG and they have all been around for awhile. Lastly, whoever is at LG is going to be between their best 2 lineman, Wood and Glenn. I like that, if it's going to be the weakest spot on the line I want those two guys next to him to possibly cover up any mistakes.
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Presuming the money is reasonable ($4 million range?), this seems like a no-brainer. They definitely have a need, he's a good, durable, productive player and their timing may be really good (buyers' market).
In the Buffalo News article, it mentioned that Miami may have let him go because he didn't make big plays (forced or recovered fumbles). As we saw with Byrd's rookie year, a lot of that can be a "right place, right time" thing. For an ILB, I'd want a fundamentally sound guy who can be a 3 down player that is a tackling machine.
Removing one need position also greatly helps the drafting strategy. It would be nice to get him signed sometime between now and Friday.
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If the website is accurate, these are the cap moves that you make that don't really affect the team on the field:
Player Cap Savings
Kelsay $4.1 Million
McGee 2.1
G. Wilson 3.37
Brad Smith 2.75
Total: $12.3 million
That gives you $32+ million to work with. Draft choices will probably be net $6-77 million.
Fitz is only $450k but probably is done too.
Re-signing Levitre and Byrd will probably cost $12-14 million against the cap, so that leaves you about $12-14 million for free agents, enough to bring in 3 solid players, probably no superstars.
Preseason Game 2: 8/20 - Bills @ Browns at 8 PM ET on ESPN
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
My 10 takeaways from the game so far, in no particular order:
1. Taylor and Cassel are doing what everyone expected so whoever they choose to start will be very telling in terms of coaching mindset. Do they go with the safe Cassel or the more risk/reward Taylor? The middle ground and more innovative would be Cassel starts and Taylor plays 10-15 plays a game in certain packages.
2. As much as I hate to admit it, IK can play and makes the team.
3. They have no OL depth but I'm not going to kill them for it. They did a very good job upgrading the first team, Urbik will be okay so I think it's too much to ask that they shore up 2 starting spots and all the backups in 1 offseason. I also think the coaching staff will have a positive impact on the group and maybe Cyrus or Cyril become decent backups.
4. Don't be surprised if Thigpen makes the team. He's a really good return guy. If Hogan's out for the season that could open a slot for Thigpen. I also wouldn't assume Easley is a lock. I think his return ability is more important than a Thompson or Davis who probably will not even be in uniform on Sundays.
5. It's still stunning to me (and defies all odds) that all 5 running backs that started camp are hurt.
6. The preseason can't end soon enough.
7. With all the OTAs, I'm not worried about timing, familiarity, etc. If Orton can develop rapport with the receivers coming in cold right before the season and starts week 5, then whoever the QB is will be fine with the receivers.
8. 4 TEs will make this team. Right now my money's on Clay, Gray, Gragg and Mulligan. O'Leary to practice squad.
9. EJ makes the team. If you go by the "the best 53 make the team despite position, he's got to be in there.
10. If Rex is playing vanilla D and still has all these blitzes, imagine what he has in mind for the regular season.