jwhit34
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Posts posted by jwhit34
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I don't really get the pessimism from some (many?) including the national media when it comes to evaluating the 2017 BIlls. If you compare this year to last year, they should be the same or better at almost every positional grouping:
POSITION
Quarterback '17 - Taylor 16 - Taylor Same
Running Backs '17 McCoy, Williams, Tolbert, DeMarco '16 - McCoy, Gillislee, Williams, Felton Same
Wide Receivers '17 Watkins, Jones, Boldin, Holmes, 2 others '16 - Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Powell, 2 others Better
Tight Ends '17 - Clay, O'Leary, Thomas '16 - Clay, O'Leary Same
Offensive Line '17 - Glenn, Incognito, Wood, Miller, Mills/Dawkins '16 - Glenn, Incognito, Wood/Groy, Miller, Mills Same/Slightly Better
Front 7 '17 - K. Williams, Dareus, Hughes, S. Lawson, P. Brown, Alexander, Humber/Ragland '16 - K. Williams, Washington, Hughes, Z. Brown, P. Brown, Alexander, Spikes, Dareus part time Better
Secondary '17 - Darby, White, Hyde, Poyer, Seymour, Johnson '16 - Gilmore, Darby, Graham, Several S, Robey-Coleman CB Worse, S Better
Place Kicking '17 - Hauschka '16 - Carpenter Better
Punting '17 - Schmidt, Rehkow '16 - Schmidt Better
Coaching Staff '17 - McDermott et al '16 - Ryan et al Better
This is particularly the case when you factor in injuries, which admittedly you never know what is going to happen. But strictly based on a healthy team today, one would think they would be better. Some knock the depth on the team and defensively that is legitimate in the secondary and LB, but on offense they should have as good if not better depth (particularly at WR and the OL depth should be good).
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Easily the worst - Around the Horn.
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I don't have a "need:" to have an O Coach or a D coach. I have the need of a coach that will take the mindset of coach Belichick that sits and watches the game and allows his OC and DC run the game and instigated changes at they are necessary. We have seen the DC minded coach that says Mine is the best. I want a coach that says My OC and DC has the best plan and when it isn't working I will instruct them to change things.
This is so true. Was Marv an offensive or defensive coach? If anything he was a special teams coach but there was no mistaking who was in charge. Finding someone who will relinquish control to both the OC and DC but sets the tone and direction and is a true leader is what I want.
Belichick is the gold standard. Marv was a very good example too. Read Tasker's piece on Bruce DeHaven, Marv let DeHaven game plan and do his thing but was involved and knew what was happening. On offense, Marv let Marchibroda and Bresnahan run the offense but he was involved in short yardage calls and you know he endorsed/encouraged the no huddle.
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The plays where the clock did not stop had between 23 and 27 seconds in between. Keep in mind the play itself takes 6-7 seconds, then figure another 3-4 seconds for everyone to get up to the line of scrimmage on the correct side of the ball. That means they were getting plays off in about 12-17 seconds. That's not too bad.
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I am hoping that he ends up replacing Robey-Coleman. Bigger, can handle the taller WRs. Robey-Coleman is a nice story but his height is a limiting factor, Seymour is better player in long run.
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Short answer - Yes.
Long answer - As some have already said, the QB position finally has some stability. EJ is an average to maybe slightly below average backup. If you trade him, you will get a 6th rounder at best, it's not worth it. At least he's been around, knows the system, the coaches know his strengths and weaknesses, and he appears to be a really good teammate.
Jones is a project, the best thing they can do for him is stick to the plan, let him learn and develop without the pressure of having to go in and play now. Also remember he played against mostly guys that will either be cut or end up on a practice squad (3rd, 4th, 5th stringers) so always temper that enthusiasm. He has an amazing arm and showed some decent things so chalk it up to a step in the right direction.
What I do find encouraging overall is that the team seems to have a drafted pretty well again. Everyone liked the first two picks and they will get on the field after they heal. I find it amusing that seemingly the same people who say you shouldn't grade a draft a day after it is over are condemning the draft because the top two guys are injured.
The other picks have shown well in camp or flashed glimpses that they may have an NFL future (Washington, Jones, Seymour). All good signs.
In a year of muted expectations, I think they are poised to surprise in a positive way.
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Let me state up front: I don't think that Tyrod Taylor is the next Aaron Rodgers. However, if you're going compare his first year to someone in a similar situation, Rodgers sat behind Favre so he's the best one. Here are the numbers:
Player Games Pass Yds/G Att/G Rush Yd/G Pass TD/G Int/G Rush TDs Combined Yds/G
Taylor 11 222 28 33 1.64 .45 3 255
Rodgers 16 255 34 13 1,75 .81 4 268
The numbers compare pretty well, and GB had a pass-first offense. The point is that we should be encouraged with his performance this year. Looking at it this way gives some perspective.
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I got there at 12:25 and had 2 people ahead of me in line so it took about 45 seconds to get in. And this was at the gate right next to the Bills store.
I've been going to games since 1970 and had season tickets since 1986, entering the stadium post 9/11 has never been easier. And, by the way, exiting is way better, the way they re-engineered the ramps into the bowl works.
Find something real to complain about.
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Buffalo 27
Indy 16
Ryan-Roman-Thurman are a significantly better coaching trio than Pagano-Hamilton-Manusky. I don't buy the SB 50 talk for the Colts and can't see the Bills giving up more than 20 points against them.
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This is a fun and encouraging poll because when you look at the list it really hits you that they did a good job of adding players in the offseason. Add in Ryan and Roman and that's an impressive list.
I watched the Tyrod draft video today and you can't help but come away rooting for the kid. You can have the agent, but Tyrod and his parents are super likable, what a great story it would be if he goes in and plays well.
Hard just picking one in this poll though. In many respects, the way Roman, Taylor, McCoy, Incognito and Harvin work together and mesh with the other offensive pieces will be the big story, hard to single one out though I agree if the QB pans out that pretty much trumps everything else. If that happens, it will be because Roman was a good OC, Richie helped solidify the line, McCoy was dyanmic as he has been in the past and Clay and Harvin were added to Watkins and Woods to form a formidable receiving corps.
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It looks like the biggest names out there are:
Matt Cassel
TJ Yates
Rex Grossman
Christian Ponder
Others:
Tim Tebow
Matt Flynn
Josh Freeman
Thad Lewis
It is interesting that teams that picked up QBs bypassed these name guys and signed/claimed Logan Thomas (Miami) and Stephen Morris (Eagles). My guess is that for #3s the teams are looking for developmental players for the league minimum. The first 4 above are most likely looking to be backups and earn more.
If the Bills want to carry 3 QBs and could sign Yates or Ponder for $1-1.5 million, then I'm good with that. A lot of people figured Simms for the practice squad but the whole argument for keeping Cassel was that you wanted some insurance if your 2 unproven, developing QBs failed or got hurt. If that's the reason, the practice squad QB makes no sense. Therefore, if you want a 3rd QB as insurance then you sign one of the first 4 guys. The bottom 4 are listed mostly for illustrative purposes to show how shallow the available QB pool is right now. No way I want any of them.
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My cuts:
Matt Cassel
Matt Simms (practice squad)
John Connor
Bronson Hill
Nick O'Leary (practice squad)
Tobias Palmer
Dezmin Lewis (practice squad)
Andre Davis (practice squad)
Deonte Thompson
William Campbell
Dalton Freeman
DJ Johnson
Alex Kupper
Andre Fluellen
Alex Carrington
BJ Larsen
Quentin Groves
Kevin Reddick
IR - Tony Steward (I think he got hurt)
Merrill Noel
Cierre Wood
Red Bryant
That's 22, leaves them with 7 WRs but I really think Thigpen makes it because he is such a good punt returner.
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This is good thinking, but you need to flip it around a bit. If there was a real chance FredEx wouldn't dress on Sunday, it would mean that his role on the team had become too limited to keep his spot on the roster - not because he might not be able to play with or even outplay the other backup RBs on offense, but because he's no longer a special team contributor. Fredex was getting paid too much to sit in civvies on game day. You want a cheap insurance backup for that role (Brown)
Every year we cut players that have fans shaking their heads because we see them playing better than a player who was kept at their primary position. ST is always the hidden roster driver, along with cost per perceived value.
I *think* they plan to keep 4 RB, but it's possible they like Wood and plan to stash him on the practice squad.
I agree with this too.
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I think that the 47 active players was a big reason Fred Jackson was released. Similar to last year, they will probably only have 3 active on game day, and after McCoy my guess is that the other two would be K. Williams (#2 back and special teams) and Dixon (special teams, goal line and change up runner). So if Jackson isn't released, he's on the team but as long as the RBs are healthy he is inactive (healthy scratch) on Sunday. The PR nightmare of Fred in street clothes on Sundays week after week was probably perceived to be worse than taking the hit now and giving him a chance to land on another team (looks like Seattle).
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I'm thinking that one of the considerations in the decision to release Fred Jackson was who would be active on game days. Presuming that they keep 4 RBs, if they kept Fred the 4 RBs would have most likely been McCoy, Jackson, Dixon and Williams. Like last year, they probably only dress 3 on game days, and my guess that would have been:
McCoy - obvious
Williams - #2 back and special teams contributor
Dixon - special teams and goal line runner
They may have felt that taking the PR hit and releasing him so he could latch on somewhere else vs. the PR nightmare of him not suiting up on Sundays was the lesser of two evils. This may have been the "other considerations" that they alluded to.
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I am thinking start EJ and use Taylor for 10-15 plays a game. Depending on how each plays the mix changes and if EJ really struggles you go to Taylor. Keep Cassel as insurance the team has too much talent to have Simms as disaster QB. The key is that both EJ and TT are getting better every week which means that they are getting excellent coaching and both have upside potential. As fans that should be exciting for us.
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Talk about overvaluing players. Let's face it, whatever WRs fail to make the team were at best the 7th best player at the position for the Bills. So If they are the 7th or 8th best option for Buffalo, what are they going to be for another team? At best, probably #4. What would you give up for a #4 WR? I'm probably not trading anything, I'll pick someone up off waivers.
The same goes for RB. If the Bills look to trade their #5 RB, they would be at best #3, maybe a#2 RB on their new team. Starting RBs don't have much value, what does a #3 RB?
The point is that if you have depth at a position, trading the one that falls outside the 53 man roster returns almost nothing. Stop overvaluing the Bills guys and be realistic in what could come in a trade.
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My 10 takeaways from the game so far, in no particular order:
1. Taylor and Cassel are doing what everyone expected so whoever they choose to start will be very telling in terms of coaching mindset. Do they go with the safe Cassel or the more risk/reward Taylor? The middle ground and more innovative would be Cassel starts and Taylor plays 10-15 plays a game in certain packages.
2. As much as I hate to admit it, IK can play and makes the team.
3. They have no OL depth but I'm not going to kill them for it. They did a very good job upgrading the first team, Urbik will be okay so I think it's too much to ask that they shore up 2 starting spots and all the backups in 1 offseason. I also think the coaching staff will have a positive impact on the group and maybe Cyrus or Cyril become decent backups.
4. Don't be surprised if Thigpen makes the team. He's a really good return guy. If Hogan's out for the season that could open a slot for Thigpen. I also wouldn't assume Easley is a lock. I think his return ability is more important than a Thompson or Davis who probably will not even be in uniform on Sundays.
5. It's still stunning to me (and defies all odds) that all 5 running backs that started camp are hurt.
6. The preseason can't end soon enough.
7. With all the OTAs, I'm not worried about timing, familiarity, etc. If Orton can develop rapport with the receivers coming in cold right before the season and starts week 5, then whoever the QB is will be fine with the receivers.
8. 4 TEs will make this team. Right now my money's on Clay, Gray, Gragg and Mulligan. O'Leary to practice squad.
9. EJ makes the team. If you go by the "the best 53 make the team despite position, he's got to be in there.
10. If Rex is playing vanilla D and still has all these blitzes, imagine what he has in mind for the regular season.
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Harvin is a known commodity, he was there for the OTAs and practices up until last week right before the preseason game. If Kyle Orton can come in cold a week before the season and start the last 12 games at QB I am sure that this coaching staff has a firm handle on what Percy Harvin can do and will develop the necessary chemistry with the offense.
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I think gunner's list is pretty accurate, though I think there will be a couple of surprises:
WR: I think Goodwin makes it but either Easley or Hogan gets cut. In terms of receivers, I don't know how often they will use 4 in formations, and for rotation purposes they would use Harvin and Woods as slot receivers in 3 wide sets. That makes Hogan expendable, I would think they would opt to get Goodwin's speed on the field in one of the wide spots.
RB: Agree that Dixon could be odd man out.
TE: My bet is they keep 4 an O'Leary is one of them.
CB: Wouldn't be shocked if McKelvin starts the season on the short term IR and they go with 5, with maybe one on the practice squad, which could be Cockrell.
S and DL: I think they keep 1 more safety (Meeks) and 1 less DL (either Carrington or Wynn)
By the way, I know they haven't played a single game that counts, but the team seems to have come up with some players in the draft despite not having a 1 and 4. Miller looks really good, Darby had a rough night but has potential, and Karlos Williams looks like a player.
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Between the three QBs they are $8 million against the cap, which has to be in the bottom 25% of the league so there is absolutely no salary cap implications keeping all three. I don't see where they don't keep all three.
All did pretty well tonight, don't forget that the one pass that Cassel had that was incomplete should have been caught by Hogan, otherwise he's 8-8. He also had a nice pass to Watkins that was negated by a penalty. So Cassel was pretty good. The thing with Taylor is that if he's the starter teams will game plan for him and a lot of those runs go away. A good example was the third and long that he scrambled, the Panthers' D did a good job at contain and he picked up a few yards but the result was 4th and 3. It was like what happened with the Browns and Manziel last year, he comes in the first series vs. Buffalo and he scrambles around and they score. Then, the Bills picked up on what he does and shut him down, and then the rest of the league had film on him and he did nothing in the remaining games that he played. That's the risk with Taylor.
Overall, the 2 things I took from tonight in terms of the QBs are (10 they all can execute to some degree; and (2) this coaching staff/Roman is very good at tailoring the offense to the personnel's strengths. They called plays that would work for them. The other thing is that the running game is going to be way, way better. John Miller may end up a real steal as a third round pick, he looked very good.
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Something just didn't add up with the offensive line under Marrone. Once Urbik went into the lineup last year, they had 4 of the 5 guys that comprised the final Chan Gailey line (Glenn, Urbik, Wood, Pears) though Pears and Urbik were in different positions. With 80% of the same personnel, and presumably Wood in the prime of his career and Glenn on the rise, it is hard to believe that the play dropped off that much.
Even if Urbik ends up starting again I am mildly optimistic that they will be better. I'm looking for Wood to return to form, Glenn's career to pick back up where he left off in 2012-13, Henderson to utilize his athletic talents and make a big step forward this year, Incognito to be a good citizen and be decent, and then have them figure out the 5th spot. You can't have stars at every position and if they have to plug one of the guard spots so be it.
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Brees is more talented. Bradford has showed signs of being a good QB. His stats:
2012 - 16 games, 3,702 yards (231/game), 21 TDs, 13 int.
2013 - 7 games, 1,687 yards (241/game), 14 TDs, 4 int.
In 2013, the Rams' leading receivers were Jared Cook (671 yards), Chris Givens (569) and Tavon Austin (418). In 2012 they were led by Givens (698) and Brandon Gibson (691).
He did pretty well with below average receivers and a running game that was nowhere near the Bills (2012 - Stephen Jackson in decline and '13 was Zac Stacy, a decent back but not as good as Spiller and Jackson).
Yes, he's had 2 ACL injuries, it would carry risk, but if he can pass a physical exam is he less risky than EJ or another veteran QB?
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Sam Bradford will probably not be retained by the Rams, it is cost prohibitive to do so given his injury history. So, he will probably be available just like Drew Brees was back in the mid 2000s. The Bills may be the best fit for him and be the most attractive option for him for the following reasons:
1. A good young WR corps.
2. Overall talent on the team, especially on defense.
3. A clear-cut path to being the #1 QB.
4. The Bills can probably outspend other contenders for his services.
I think it would be brilliant - they don't have a 1st round pick, EJ is not looking very good, the Bills have the roster to win now. The one bad thing is the O-line but it has potential, if they could sign a serviceable guard they probably would be pretty good.
I say start the Bradford to Buffalo campaign now a la Takeo Spikes.
Roster Comparison Would Indicate Team Should Be Better
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I think Gillislee is a very overrated loss. The team ran for 2,630 yards, back up RB/FBs accounted for 681, of which Gillislee was 577 or 22% of total (JWilliams 94, Felton 13, Bush -3). If the backup RB/FB are 20% worse than Gillislee, the yards go down by 115 for the season or 8.5 yards a game.
The biggest question is the TDs. The fact that Karlos Williams led the team in rushing TDs (7) in '15 and then Gillislee had 8 last year (McCoy had 13) leads me to think that the non-McCoy TDs are at least as attributable to the OLine as the back. Think about how the Broncos for years seem to plug a different guy into the RB slot every year (and many years, multiple guys) and still got the same results.
If you are of the mindset that in today's NFL you don't spend high draft picks for RBs then backup RBs are even more interchangeable.
It is a valid point to say we seem to think the roster every year is better and the team finishes about the same.