jwhit34
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Posts posted by jwhit34
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But would he bring Aaron Maybin back with him?
Like many others have stated, worry less about scheme and focus on finding the best man for the job.
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I know getting younger in the front office is the sentiment in vogue, but what about firing Gailey, move Nix to head of college scouting and bringing back Bill Polian as GM or President of Football Operations, with the stipulation that he identifies and grooms his successor (and it can't be his son)? He could get the team pointed in the right direction and would have the gravitas to attract a top notch coach. Listening to him on ESPN around draft time he has a formula/strategy on how to get things done.
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Three false start penalties today, it must be the deafening crowd noise.
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No pass rush. Run D is pretty good.
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If you cut Smith, you can still have a roster composition as follows:
3 QBs (Fitz, Jackson, Thigpen)
4 RB/FB
6 WRs
9 OL
3 TE
8 DL
7 LBs
9 DB
4 Special Teams (Moorman, Lindell, Sanborn, Potter)
Depending on what they want to keep, the WR, OL, DL, LB and DB can be plus or minus 1.
Smith staying on team allows you to keep 1 more player. Let's face it, player #53 probably has less potential than guys that will be on the practice squad (except that person probably isn't eligible for PS).
They should keep their best players whenever possible (given some positional constraints) and Brad Smith simply is not one of the best 53.
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I'm not enamored with Thigpen, but I think he should be kept for #3 and the Bills should let Brad Smith go. The potential roles that he fills are covered more competently by others:
1. #3 QB - Somewhat incredibly, Thigpen is better (by a lot, if you were at camp the last 2 years you'd know that)
2. Kickoff returns: Rogers, McKelvin, Graham, Spiller and Easley are better
3. #6 WR - If a 6th WR is kept, I'd rather have Martin, Easley or Roosevelt (presuming Hagan is #5)
4. Special teams coverage: Ruvell Martin is better amongst WRs
5. Wildcat QB - A very limited package, but Tavaris or the RBs are able to handle it, and Smith is not a threat to throw (see #1)
So he's a unique player without a unique role (since others can do what he does), and it's not like he enables them to cut 3 guys because he can do all those things. At most, they have to add a 6th WR.
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I'm not enamored with Thigpen, but I think he should be kept for #3 and the Bills should let Brad Smith go. The potential roles that he fills are covered more competently by others:
1. #3 QB - Somewhat incredibly, Thigpen is better (by a lot, if you were at camp the last 2 years you'd know that)
2. Kickoff returns: Rogers, McKelvin, Graham, Spiller and Easley are better
3. #6 WR - If a 6th WR is kept, I'd rather have Martin, Easley or Roosevelt (presuming Hagan is #5)
4. Special teams coverage: Ruvell Martin is better amongst WRs
5. Wildcat QB - A very limited package, but Tavaris or the RBs are able to handle it, and Smith is not a threat to throw (see #1)
So he's a unique player without a unique role (since others can do what he does), and it's not like he enables them to cut 3 guys because he can do all those things. At most, they have to add a 6th WR.
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Wilson was considered a 4th or 5th rounder. The experts thought Cordy Glenn was a guard. Reach or not it doesn't matter. Te Seahawks are now being lauded for their independent thinking on Wilson. They went against the grain. Maybe that turns out to be the case with Graham and Glenn for the Bills. What I do like is their conviction to pick both and eventually they will be judged based on the results, but we are a couple years away from that. Don't hand Pete Carrollthe label of genius quite yet.
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I didn't read every single post but don't be surprised if letting Brad Smith go isn't in the mix here. In yesterday's game, they ran wildcat a couple of times and it wasn't Smith, and he was working with the 2nd team at WR. Is that a signal that if he is going to make the team it has to be based on his play at WR and special teams?
Thigpen is making $3 million, so is Smith, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's Fitz-Jackson-Young.
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I totally agree about Brad Smith. There's no way he can play QB. Watching him in camp in the limited reps he gets he makes Thigpen look like a top 15 QB. I think they should end that experiment and get a developmental QB in here.
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I think it makes sense for the Bills to cut Tyler Thigpen now. The reasons:
1. It seems pretty clear that Vince Young is going to be #2.
2. It would give Young all the #2 reps, thus being more prepared.
3. Thigpen would have a better opportunity to latch on somewhere else.
The downside is if Fitz or Young got injured, then they'd have to scramble to fill in.
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The good:
Dareus and Kyle Williams - Dareus could be the best player on DL?
Fred Jackson - Any question who is going to get the bulk of the RB touches?
Donald Jones - I have liked him at camp the 2 times I went, good to see a nice play tonight. Remember Peter King had tagged him as a sleeper last year before his injuries
Ron Brooks - Don't want to get too excited, but can you envision him and Gilmore as the shutdown CBs of the future?
Potter - What a leg - makes KO returns a non-issue
Young to Graham - They did their homework on TJ, this draft has the potential of being one of the all time best (Gilmore, Glenn, TJ, Brooks)
The not so good:
OLine - They have a lot of work to do. Eric Wood is very important
LBs - Definitely the weakest position on the team, look for lots of LBs taken in '13 draft
Spiller - No panic here, he looked good in camp, but I don't like him taking losses and going east-west a lot
I still think they will be pretty good but they have work to do.
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I was at practice Sat. too, here's what I'd agree with:
1. Fitz looked very good, his accuracy is more consistent.
2. The first team D-line is as advertised.
3. Gilmore is the real deal. I watched him a lot in 7-on-7 and he smothers the receivers. I wish I would have gotten a chance to see him work against Stevie Johnson.
4. The Moorman punt was great - I think McKelvin backpedaled so much in ended up hitting him in the head out of the end zone.
5. McGee is done. It was sad, he got beat bad in 7-on-7s a few times and right after that he was just standing on the sidelines or on the stationary bike and looked totally defeated. I felt so bad for him, you couldn't see his face but you could tell he was very dejected.
I wouldn't agree with:
1. Merriman. I tried watching him and he really didn't do anything. Comparing him strictly size-wise with the other DEs, I thought of Maybin. I hope it was just situational but I walked away thinking the best to hope for from him is 10-15 plays where he rushes the passer and records a few sacks.
2. I liked what Donald Jones did. He's not the deep threat they need but he runs good routes and made some nice catches. He and Fitz are in sync with each other.
Other observations:
1. I know Pears is out, Wood isn't taking full reps and the D-Line is really good, but I wasn't impressed with the O-Line. Hairston and Glenn have a ways to go.
2. If the WR group isn't Johnson, Nelson, Jones, Easley, Graham and Hagan I'll be surprised.
3. I was bummed that it was Thigpen's day as #2, I wanted to see Young more. Fitz is by far the best QB in camp, and Brad Smith isn't very good. He holds the ball and struggles finding open targets.
4. The LBs should be good enough, the way they play D the line & DBs are most important. There won't be 3 on the field for more than about 40% of the plays.
5. Scott Chandler looks like he's still getting better and could be an important part of the offense.
6. Spiller has made huge strides, he runs totally different (better) now. This will be the year people stop lamenting about picking him.
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Read between the lines of this quote from David Lee in Mark Gaughan's article this morning, talking about Vince Young and the backup QB battle:
"When you get a guy that's really great at something - and he's a great runner - it makes him exceptional and it makes him more difficult to defend, and it gives you a chance for more big plays," Lee said. "That's what we saw Sunday night. We're not discouraging that. It's something you can't coach."
My guess is that their thinking with Young is that they have a truly exceptional talent and they can teach him the other stuff. Chan did it with Kordell Stewart and Young is better than Kordell. Remember, people knock him for his intelligence too. It's sad that in 2012 that African-American QBs are still stereotyped as great athletes and short on intelligence. Actually, it's worse than sad, it's pathetic.
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Gotta start somewhere, here's my prediction:
OFFENSE (25)
QB - Fitz, Young, B. Smith
RB - Jackson, Spiller, Choice
FB/HB - McIntyre, Dickerson
WR - Johnson, Nelson, Jones, Graham, Easley, Hagan
TE - Chandler, Smith
OL - Glenn, Levitre, Wood, Urbik, Pears, Hairston, Sanders, Rhinehart, Jasper
DEFENSE (25)
DL - M. Williams, K. Williams, Anderson, Dareus, Kelsay, Merriman, Troup, Heard, Carrington
LB - Sheppard, Barnett, Morrison, Carder, Bradham, Scott
CB - Gilmore, A. Williams, McGee, McKelvin, Rogers, Brooks
S - Wilson, Byrd, Searcy
SPECIAL TEAMS (3)
Snapper - Sanborn
K - Lindell
P - Moorman
Last cuts: Dwan Edwards, Spencer Johnson, Ruvell Martin (special teams ability)
Have making team but wouldn't be shocked if cut: McKelvin, Carrington, Choice
PRACTICE SQUAD: Potter (K), Asper, Nesbitt, Saenz, 3 others
Surprises and Rationale:
1. Only 3 safeties, Bryan Scott is #4 and is a swing LB/S
2. Would like to add Potter as kickoff specialist but ran out of spots
3. With Nickerson making team they go with only 2 TEs
4. Jasper may be the biggest surprise
5. A lot of the rookies will make roster because guys like Carder and Branham will not make it through to practice squad
6. The thing that struck me is that there probably are 10 or fewer roster spots up for grabs. Some between 1-43 may be unsettled as to pecking order but the players in those spots are pretty solid.
Have at it...
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If Merriman can play, they could get really creative on passing downs. Imagine lining up Mario, Anderson, K. Williams and Dareus as front 4, Merriman as LB and 6 DBs then rushing 5.
It may seem far-fetched but if you're going to send 5 why not? Merriman could roam and rush from 2 point stance. Teams would either have to max protect or run short routes.
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2012 isn't an issue, as others have stated, they are significantly under the cap. If you want to look ahead to 2013 and signing Levitre and Byrd, there is a lot of flexibility. Right now they have a lot of money tied up in the DL, and based on this season that should sort itself out. The 3 key pieces are:
1. Spencer Johnson and Merriman are in the last year of their contracts (I don't know if both make the team)
2. They will probably have to make decisions on Kelsay and Dwan Edwards (one may be gone this year)
3. We should find out this year if Carrington and Troup can play in the league
Also keep in mind that the TV contract (I think starting in '14) is going to be worth a lot more money to the teams so with Byrd and Levitre they can structure contracts with bigger bonuses and a low '13 salary so they amortize a big chunk of the money in the big TV money years.
If there's one thing the team has done well even through the dark years is manage the cap. Some may call them cheap but if you look at the numbers they haven't been shy about spending, they just haven't spent on the right guys (exhibit 1: Dockery, Walker, Hangartner).
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I haven't verified the list below, but if these are the available FA QBs, I'd have to say Vince Young is the best available. You can make a case for Kyle Boller but that's about it. The follow up question: is VY better than Thigpen? I hope so and trust that mgt. will be able to figure that out.
List of available FA QBs:
Quarterbacks:
Max Hall – ARI
Jake Delhomme - HOU
Luke McCown – JAC
Tyler Palko – KC
J.P. Losman – MIA
Donovan McNabb – MIN
Mark Brunell – NYJ
Kevin O’Connell – NYJ ®
Kyle Boller – OAK
Vince Young – PHI
Dennis Dixon – PIT
Billy Volek – SD
A.J. Feeley - STL
Kellen Clemens – STL
John Beck – WAS
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Massie, Cousins, Carder or another CB would be my preference.
As others have noted, LB is not as critical in Wannstadt's 4-3. Most of the time the Bills will have at most 2 LBs on field and it seems to be a position that you can find guys later on.
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Not that group think is a great indicator, but the way tackles and receivers slid out of the first round in a way validates the Bills' thoughts on the draft. The quality and value at those positions appear to be in rounds 2-4, which means Bills will have to be on the lookout for a run on one of those positions.
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I'd love Cordy Glenn, Martin, Quick or Randle. Maybe Lavonte David too. Happy with any one of those
Right now like Glenn, Martin, Randle, Jeffrey and Lavonte David.
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They brought in Michael Adams, that might be the one if it's an OT.
At WR Reuben Randle or Alshon Jeffrey.
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Things appear to be breaking well for Bills. A big run on DL and no one taking OT besides Kalil and only 3 WRs off the board (and 1 is Kendall Wright and that's okay with me). This should give the Bills choices:
1. Best WR on their board
2. Best OT on their board
3. Lavonte David?
Lots of choices. Heck, DeCastro is still available (though he won't last until #41). I'm thinking an OT will be selected (Michael Adams or Jonathan Martin).
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Keep Kelsay and let Dwan Edwards go, the move saves about $4 million in cap space. If they need 9 DL, the group could be:
DE: M. Williams, Kelsay, Carrington,
DT: K. Williams, Dareus, Troup, Heard
DE/DT: S. Johnson
Consider Merriman a LB or DE? How about Arthur Moats?
Bills hire Mike Pettine for Defensive Coordinator
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
If Pettine's goal is to get a HC job soon, then if it happens it means the Bills' D is really good for the next 2-3 years. Then, they can promote from within (continuity) if he hires really good assistants (which he would have had to if the D is really good). That's an ideal scenario for a team.
As for the 3-4, 4-3, 46 defense talk, whatever. Get good players. As for the existing guys:
Kyle Williams can play the NT or DT in 4 man fronts
Dareus can play one DE in 3-4
Mark Anderson is a good fit 3-4 LB and can be a rush DE in 4 man front
Mario Williams can play wherever
Carrington came on so pick a spot for him and he'll be a decent rotation guy.
LBs is more of a challenge, Barnett would be an ILB in 3-4 and a 1-2 year stopgap
Sheppard is an unknown
Bradham? Looks like he can play, find the right spot for him
Do they now bring back Merriman?
Need to draft an OLB or get a free agent.
Bottom line - they have some decent pieces but need to add to them. They were 2-3 pieces short if they stayed in a 4-3, they are probably the same 2-3 pieces short in a 3-4.