jwhit34
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Posts posted by jwhit34
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Can Crosby make it to Bills? That's the one I want. Only 2 teams ahead of him have not taken an OLman in draft.
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32 minutes ago, ProcessTheTrust said:
Murph is a huge homer, but I wonder....is there any other play-by-play guy doing a show about his team that isn't a homer? Hopefully Tasker can bring at least a shred of objectivity. Either way, they will continue to get the guests we want to hear.
Murph can't hold a candle to John Sterling...
It isn't the most objective but they get decent guests and provide the news of the day, it's worth a 15-20 minute listen if I'm in the car at lunch time. Listening to all 3 hours would be painful.
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53 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
So because he had one season where he missed more time than he played, he's constantly injured?
That's poor analysis IMO.
Glenn played in 25% of the team's offensive snaps in 2017. How about since he was drafted?
2012 - 79.43%
2013 - 100%
2014 - 98.49%
2015 - 98.51% (this was after having a kidney removed by the way)
2016 - 61.75%
Constantly out of the lineup? No. Coming off of an injury-plagued season for the first time in his career? Yes.
I'm glad someone posted facts. The number of games/snaps played are similar to Eric Wood. Wood's first 3 seasons he played 10, 14 and 9 games then all 16 for the next 3 seasons, 9 in '16 and all 16 in '17. With such a big cap hit even if they trade or release Glenn they are much better off working to get him healthy and retaining him and playing him at either RT or RG. Dawkins, Incognito, Groy, Glenn and 1 more would be a good line.
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5 hours ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:
I like a few others on here feel the Bills will try to trade down into the 2nd using one of their first to gain more picks.
Cleveland has picks 35 & 63 in the 2nd round. The value of those picks line up enough with our 22nd overall.
I would love to have picks 21, 35, 53, 55 & 63.
You sell it to Cleveland by saying “would you rather have 5 picks in the top 63... or 4 picks in the top 33?” That’s damn near 4 1st round picks.
But imagine if the Bills could fill there needs and have 5 picks in top 63....
And if you can do that, then I trade 35 down 7-10 spots and pick up an extra third and maybe something next year. Then you can trade 53 down 6-8 slots and pick up another 3rd especially since you have 55. You end up with a first, 4 seconds and 3 thirds and maybe an extra pick or two in '19.
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Agreed - if you can get a little aggressive and creative, you can trade down multiple times and end up with 1 first, 3-4 seconds and 2-3 thirds and maybe even a pick or two next year. Once you start amassing multiple picks in the first 3 rounds you have great flexibility.
The top 100 players are dissected, poked and prodded, and so thoroughly reviewed and still about 1/2 of the first rounders don't make it. So it really becomes a numbers-driven process - the more picks you have in the top 100 the higher the probability that you will land guys that can play in the NFL. So if I am a GM, I would trade down and get 7-10 picks in the first 3 rounds. If you can hit on 50% you get 4-5 contributors per season. That will lead to a solid, deep roster and once you start amassing extra picks it's easy to get extra ones every year.
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Starters needed: QB, WR, 2 on OL, 2 DTs, 2 LBs, 1 CB
Hopefully they re-sign Gaines and the CB is solved. Free agency may yield 1-2 other starters, the rest of the free agents will be for depth and they need quite a few back ups.
Unless there are 2 guys they feel the same as they did on Tre White, I would trade either 21 or 22 for a lower first and a low second. 5 picks in top 64 sounds good to me.
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5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:
My memory is vague. 1973. First year in the new stadium. OJ's having a good first half but a frustrating one, too. The crowd gets on its feet a few times as he looks like he's about to break one. But shoestring tackles hold him to modest gains.
It seems like only a matter of time before he breaks free but instead OJ gets hurt and doesn't play the second half.
Sadly, I've forgotten the opponent but I bet someone hear remembers the game I'm talking about.
His low game at home in '73 was 20 carries for 99 yards vs. Cincy. He gained 1,055 yards in 7 home games that season. He wasn't injured that season. He did get hurt in '74.
My first game was 1970 vs. Rams, they lost 19-0. Dan Darragh started at QB, Dennis Shaw came in for him. The thing I remember was that at some point in first half they got sacked and had some penalties and ended up 4th and over 40 yards to go. I think that was when John Rauch was using OJ as a decoy.
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...The Bills get Kelvin Benjamin. The Bennett trade (made on 10/31/87) was a key piece that put the Bills on the Super Bowl path, and symbolized (in retrospect) that they were ready to contend and were going for it.
While not as big a trade, will we some day look back and talk about the similarities? Let's hope so.
These guys not only have a plan but a vision of what they want the team and organization to look like and they are executing.
While we cannot expect Benjamin to have a first game like Bennett did, maybe they get him on the field for 10-15 plays and he helps beat the Jets.
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I'll repeat myself. TY Hilton has averaged 1200 yards and 6 TDs through the past 4 seasons.
He is on a contract in line with that performance and is in the prime of his career.
Why do you think you'd get him for some mid round pick, or even a 2nd?
I think this place VASTLY overrates the value of draft picks for proven players.
This is so true. People want to trade Cordy Glenn for a 2nd round pick. He is an established LT, probably top 10 in the league, the probability of hitting on a top 10 LT in the 2nd round is probably pretty small (<30%?). I know there are cap considerations, but to build a team you can't do it with all cheap guys.
Similarly, a top 15 WR which I would consider TY Hilton - that's a first rounder for sure, probably a top 20 pick. He's making about the same money as Robert Woods. Who would you rather have? Consensus is that the Bills need to pick a WR in the first 2 rounds, if you could get a guy like Hilton for a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you take the guesswork/risk out of drafting.
Hilton is only 27 years old, he's coming into the prime years of his career.
Even if you trade a 2 or 3 you still have 5 picks in the top 95 and you've filled a need. And keep Glenn so you don't create another need. Move Dawkins to right side seems like everyone thinks RG and RT need upgrade plug in your 2017 draft pick.
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No why? So we could spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on someone (@ LT) to develop into what Glenn is already that can bust?
Exactly. He's a top notch player who is a known quantity and is in his prime.
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Going on the presumption that they re-sign Matthews and Gaines, retain Glenn and move Dawkins to RT and not knowing what position(s) are addressed in free agency:
Needs in no particular order:
WR - You need 3 really good ones, I can see this in first round, a true #1 WR with speed/deep threat ability
OG - Upgrade RG immediately, also have to think about eventual Incognito replacement. Guards can be found in rounds 2 or 3
DT/DE - DT is an immediate need, even if K Williams returns, this could be a round 2 pick
LB - Outside LB needed the most, if a top notch one is available in 1st round take him
CB - This would be a depth pick with White and Gaines, so 3rd round
Taylor's progress is encouraging but I also think they need to pick a QB.
RB depth/heir apparent is needed but could wait a year. They can pick someone up to back up McCoy. Safety depth could be either free agency or later rounds. Poyer and Hyde are really good.
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If this is right Im glad he's gone, tough to get a team to take on his issues and contract, hope he does well in Jax so we get a 5th. 2019-21 gets wiped out, better then paying it all with cutting him, plus we get a draft pick out of it even if it's just a 6th it's something.
This ends up more about dumping a player that, given his performance level the last two years and off the field issues, was not critical to their success and the most effective way to clear cap space in the future. The money they save this year (extra cap space in current year) can be rolled into next year's cap.
The other thing it could do, maybe if the Bills beat the Raiders and move to 5-2, is open the door to trade for a WR (use the Dareus '18 cap money) before Tuesday.
Being a GM is like playing chess, not checkers. Chess you have to think multiple moves ahead. People have to give Beane time to play chess.
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Again I have to ask: does anyone care that Groy has never taken a regular-season rep as a guard, and has very limited reps at the position in preseason work.
It seems like almost every year that, when asked about OL combos, coaching staffs always say they are looking to have the best 5 players comprise the OL. On top of that, McDermott (and others) emphasize that the interior line guys have to be versatile.
Groy fits the bill on both fronts - he is probably one of the top 5 and he has shown versatility. He is the guy who gets work in practice at LG when Incognito gets a rest day.
It's great that he is a strong backup for Wood but get your money's worth out of him (he's amongst the top 15 paid and is #4 highest paid on OL).
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A Glenn-Incognito-Wood-Groy-Dawkins OL is the best combo in my opinion. That would be a pretty physical group. With Vlad and Mills in the lineup in Glenn's absence, Dawkins had to be the 3rd best player on the line. With this combo Dawkins can be the 5th best and learn. He is a better athlete, more ability than Mills he would be an instant upgrade.
According to spotrac Groy is 13th highest paid based on cap hit this year, why not get your money's worth out of him?
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I don't understand why Groy doesn't get put in that spot. Most coaches always talk about finding "the best 5 guys" for the OL. When everyone is healthy, that would be Glenn-Incognito-Wood-Groy-Dawkins.
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If Dawkins is doing okay leave at LT and move Glenn to RT. That would mitigate the injuries. Cap hit on Glenn is prohibitive.
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More modern acts:
Dave Matthews Band
Maroon 5
Older:
Sting/The Police
If the Bills ever made it:
Goo Goo Dolls
The one that would never happen:
I love the idea of he Marine Corps Band that would really make a statement.
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If Glenn is out for an extended amount of time (rest of season?) and Dawkins does well I wouldn't be surprised if Dawkins stays at LT and they move Glenn to RT or even guard.
Dareus will be here at least through 2018. I don't think they will give up on him. They could easily rationalize that his underachieving in '17 is due to injury and coupled with the onerous cap hit if they release him try to see if he can turn it around next year.
Even if they land the QB of the future next year that will not transform them into a playoff team in '18. If they finish with a poor enough record and don't have to trade much/any of their draft capital they could restock big time, but if they end up picking 8-10 they will have to spend a good deal of it to move up and take the QB.
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Vlad, Davis Holmes and Hauschka for a comp 3rd and 4th
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And now we have entered the Bills Browns game zone 6-3.
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The overreaction and supposed analysis based on preseason games, a few roster moves and a limited glimpse at training camp is astounding. For the record:
1. Beane and McDermott are 0-0 as GM and head coach of the team.
2. Beane has made I think 5 trades, all of which involve future draft picks. Two had players of significance (Darby, Watkins) and the other 3 were players that most thought would be cut (C. Jones) or were cut possibilities or at best backups (Seymour, Ragland) that had a high likelihood of not being part of the 46 active on Sundays.
3. It is almost impossible to draw any conclusions based on preseason games.
4. All the angst over possibly getting a 3rd round compensatory pick: A 3rd round comp pick is essentially a 4th round pick. 4th rounders have a 91% chance of making the roster as a rookie, 74% in year 2 and 54% in year 3. That's to make the roster, not to start.
5. Every year there seems to be a RB and/or WR that is battling for the last spot in the position group that fans latch onto that gets cut. When they are released, fans/people posting here act like they just cut the next Andre Reed but the funny thing is that we almost never hear about them again. To draw any conclusions over Brandon Reilly vs. Holmes and Brown or anyone else is ridiculous. The coaches are reviewing every rep from practice and games, they have a much better handle on what is going on.
6. Throughout the last 17 years, one of the most commonly expressed criticisms of the team has been that there is no discernible plan, that they make moves that are short-sighted, that they over estimate the talent on the team and make moves like they are 1-2 players away from making the playoffs. So here comes a couple of guys that are 180 degrees opposite of all that, appear to have concluded that the talent isn't that great on the team, need to assemble a group of players that will play well as a team vs. bringing in a few high-end talent guys that may not be team guys (Owens, Mario Williams are the first 2 to come to mind) and they roundly criticized by a significant faction of fans. You can't have it both ways.
7. Many think the national media is clueless and out of touch when it comes to their analysis of the Bills. However, if you look back over the years they were pretty much correct. Now many have good things to say about Beane and McDermott, and most thought the Watkins and Darby trades were good for the team.
8. Many times when you are building a team or a business, especially one that has not been successful or has a bad culture, many of the initial moves don't make sense or fly under the radar but are crucial to turning things around. Some of what is being done is subtle, some is not but the one thing that I think is very encouraging is that the moves seem to be consistent with the plan to build a team that is good over a longer period of time. Now we have to see if it's a good plan and if they can execute.
9. I think virtually anyone who follows the team pretty close and sat down after Thursday's game and filled out what their projected 53 man roster would be you probably hit on at least 50 of 53. That means you disagree with the last 3 players to make the team, which are candidates to be released based on waiver/free agent claims and pickups, and if they make it theoretically never suit up on Sundays. To declare the leadership as inept at talent evaluation based on that is ludicrous.
10. The last thing in terms of roster manipulation that no one talks about is how they have to strategically do things based on salary cap, practice squad eligibility, etc. Releasing Brandon Reilly, who at the beginning of camp no one thought would make it, may have been done because they knew there was a high probability that they could add to practice squad.
So given all that I say so far so good. I think there is reason for optimism.
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A lot of people have responded that coaching is more important than culture. The head coach is the most responsible for establishing the team culture.
It is very important - there are a lot of teams in all the major sports that have great talent but are underachievers and it's mostly because they do not have a winning culture.
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We are going to miss Whaley's Pro scouting, whoever Pro scouted Jones better get a good talking to.
Keep in mind that there are 90 players in 32 camps so by that math Taiwan is at best the #2,831st best player in the league.
Not perfect science (Boldin exception) but you get my drift...don't expect a lot from a training camp pickup.
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Agree not to bring. I have season tickets in a mellow section (135) so the fan behavior was not an issue, but did not bring my kids until age 6 or 7. Went to training camp earlier and that was better for them at a younger age, could see more, didn't stay as long, etc.
Day 3 of draft rounds 4-7 let’s talk
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
It's been 2 days since Beane made deal maybe he flips the 7th to move up a couple spots.
Crosby or Cain would be good in 4th. With Phillips picked can't see them taking Hurst.