jwhit34
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Posts posted by jwhit34
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And now we have entered the Bills Browns game zone 6-3.
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The overreaction and supposed analysis based on preseason games, a few roster moves and a limited glimpse at training camp is astounding. For the record:
1. Beane and McDermott are 0-0 as GM and head coach of the team.
2. Beane has made I think 5 trades, all of which involve future draft picks. Two had players of significance (Darby, Watkins) and the other 3 were players that most thought would be cut (C. Jones) or were cut possibilities or at best backups (Seymour, Ragland) that had a high likelihood of not being part of the 46 active on Sundays.
3. It is almost impossible to draw any conclusions based on preseason games.
4. All the angst over possibly getting a 3rd round compensatory pick: A 3rd round comp pick is essentially a 4th round pick. 4th rounders have a 91% chance of making the roster as a rookie, 74% in year 2 and 54% in year 3. That's to make the roster, not to start.
5. Every year there seems to be a RB and/or WR that is battling for the last spot in the position group that fans latch onto that gets cut. When they are released, fans/people posting here act like they just cut the next Andre Reed but the funny thing is that we almost never hear about them again. To draw any conclusions over Brandon Reilly vs. Holmes and Brown or anyone else is ridiculous. The coaches are reviewing every rep from practice and games, they have a much better handle on what is going on.
6. Throughout the last 17 years, one of the most commonly expressed criticisms of the team has been that there is no discernible plan, that they make moves that are short-sighted, that they over estimate the talent on the team and make moves like they are 1-2 players away from making the playoffs. So here comes a couple of guys that are 180 degrees opposite of all that, appear to have concluded that the talent isn't that great on the team, need to assemble a group of players that will play well as a team vs. bringing in a few high-end talent guys that may not be team guys (Owens, Mario Williams are the first 2 to come to mind) and they roundly criticized by a significant faction of fans. You can't have it both ways.
7. Many think the national media is clueless and out of touch when it comes to their analysis of the Bills. However, if you look back over the years they were pretty much correct. Now many have good things to say about Beane and McDermott, and most thought the Watkins and Darby trades were good for the team.
8. Many times when you are building a team or a business, especially one that has not been successful or has a bad culture, many of the initial moves don't make sense or fly under the radar but are crucial to turning things around. Some of what is being done is subtle, some is not but the one thing that I think is very encouraging is that the moves seem to be consistent with the plan to build a team that is good over a longer period of time. Now we have to see if it's a good plan and if they can execute.
9. I think virtually anyone who follows the team pretty close and sat down after Thursday's game and filled out what their projected 53 man roster would be you probably hit on at least 50 of 53. That means you disagree with the last 3 players to make the team, which are candidates to be released based on waiver/free agent claims and pickups, and if they make it theoretically never suit up on Sundays. To declare the leadership as inept at talent evaluation based on that is ludicrous.
10. The last thing in terms of roster manipulation that no one talks about is how they have to strategically do things based on salary cap, practice squad eligibility, etc. Releasing Brandon Reilly, who at the beginning of camp no one thought would make it, may have been done because they knew there was a high probability that they could add to practice squad.
So given all that I say so far so good. I think there is reason for optimism.
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A lot of people have responded that coaching is more important than culture. The head coach is the most responsible for establishing the team culture.
It is very important - there are a lot of teams in all the major sports that have great talent but are underachievers and it's mostly because they do not have a winning culture.
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We are going to miss Whaley's Pro scouting, whoever Pro scouted Jones better get a good talking to.
Keep in mind that there are 90 players in 32 camps so by that math Taiwan is at best the #2,831st best player in the league.
Not perfect science (Boldin exception) but you get my drift...don't expect a lot from a training camp pickup.
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Agree not to bring. I have season tickets in a mellow section (135) so the fan behavior was not an issue, but did not bring my kids until age 6 or 7. Went to training camp earlier and that was better for them at a younger age, could see more, didn't stay as long, etc.
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I think Gillislee is a very overrated loss. The team ran for 2,630 yards, back up RB/FBs accounted for 681, of which Gillislee was 577 or 22% of total (JWilliams 94, Felton 13, Bush -3). If the backup RB/FB are 20% worse than Gillislee, the yards go down by 115 for the season or 8.5 yards a game.
The biggest question is the TDs. The fact that Karlos Williams led the team in rushing TDs (7) in '15 and then Gillislee had 8 last year (McCoy had 13) leads me to think that the non-McCoy TDs are at least as attributable to the OLine as the back. Think about how the Broncos for years seem to plug a different guy into the RB slot every year (and many years, multiple guys) and still got the same results.
If you are of the mindset that in today's NFL you don't spend high draft picks for RBs then backup RBs are even more interchangeable.
It is a valid point to say we seem to think the roster every year is better and the team finishes about the same.
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I don't really get the pessimism from some (many?) including the national media when it comes to evaluating the 2017 BIlls. If you compare this year to last year, they should be the same or better at almost every positional grouping:
POSITION
Quarterback '17 - Taylor 16 - Taylor Same
Running Backs '17 McCoy, Williams, Tolbert, DeMarco '16 - McCoy, Gillislee, Williams, Felton Same
Wide Receivers '17 Watkins, Jones, Boldin, Holmes, 2 others '16 - Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Powell, 2 others Better
Tight Ends '17 - Clay, O'Leary, Thomas '16 - Clay, O'Leary Same
Offensive Line '17 - Glenn, Incognito, Wood, Miller, Mills/Dawkins '16 - Glenn, Incognito, Wood/Groy, Miller, Mills Same/Slightly Better
Front 7 '17 - K. Williams, Dareus, Hughes, S. Lawson, P. Brown, Alexander, Humber/Ragland '16 - K. Williams, Washington, Hughes, Z. Brown, P. Brown, Alexander, Spikes, Dareus part time Better
Secondary '17 - Darby, White, Hyde, Poyer, Seymour, Johnson '16 - Gilmore, Darby, Graham, Several S, Robey-Coleman CB Worse, S Better
Place Kicking '17 - Hauschka '16 - Carpenter Better
Punting '17 - Schmidt, Rehkow '16 - Schmidt Better
Coaching Staff '17 - McDermott et al '16 - Ryan et al Better
This is particularly the case when you factor in injuries, which admittedly you never know what is going to happen. But strictly based on a healthy team today, one would think they would be better. Some knock the depth on the team and defensively that is legitimate in the secondary and LB, but on offense they should have as good if not better depth (particularly at WR and the OL depth should be good).
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Easily the worst - Around the Horn.
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I don't have a "need:" to have an O Coach or a D coach. I have the need of a coach that will take the mindset of coach Belichick that sits and watches the game and allows his OC and DC run the game and instigated changes at they are necessary. We have seen the DC minded coach that says Mine is the best. I want a coach that says My OC and DC has the best plan and when it isn't working I will instruct them to change things.
This is so true. Was Marv an offensive or defensive coach? If anything he was a special teams coach but there was no mistaking who was in charge. Finding someone who will relinquish control to both the OC and DC but sets the tone and direction and is a true leader is what I want.
Belichick is the gold standard. Marv was a very good example too. Read Tasker's piece on Bruce DeHaven, Marv let DeHaven game plan and do his thing but was involved and knew what was happening. On offense, Marv let Marchibroda and Bresnahan run the offense but he was involved in short yardage calls and you know he endorsed/encouraged the no huddle.
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The plays where the clock did not stop had between 23 and 27 seconds in between. Keep in mind the play itself takes 6-7 seconds, then figure another 3-4 seconds for everyone to get up to the line of scrimmage on the correct side of the ball. That means they were getting plays off in about 12-17 seconds. That's not too bad.
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I am hoping that he ends up replacing Robey-Coleman. Bigger, can handle the taller WRs. Robey-Coleman is a nice story but his height is a limiting factor, Seymour is better player in long run.
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Short answer - Yes.
Long answer - As some have already said, the QB position finally has some stability. EJ is an average to maybe slightly below average backup. If you trade him, you will get a 6th rounder at best, it's not worth it. At least he's been around, knows the system, the coaches know his strengths and weaknesses, and he appears to be a really good teammate.
Jones is a project, the best thing they can do for him is stick to the plan, let him learn and develop without the pressure of having to go in and play now. Also remember he played against mostly guys that will either be cut or end up on a practice squad (3rd, 4th, 5th stringers) so always temper that enthusiasm. He has an amazing arm and showed some decent things so chalk it up to a step in the right direction.
What I do find encouraging overall is that the team seems to have a drafted pretty well again. Everyone liked the first two picks and they will get on the field after they heal. I find it amusing that seemingly the same people who say you shouldn't grade a draft a day after it is over are condemning the draft because the top two guys are injured.
The other picks have shown well in camp or flashed glimpses that they may have an NFL future (Washington, Jones, Seymour). All good signs.
In a year of muted expectations, I think they are poised to surprise in a positive way.
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Let me state up front: I don't think that Tyrod Taylor is the next Aaron Rodgers. However, if you're going compare his first year to someone in a similar situation, Rodgers sat behind Favre so he's the best one. Here are the numbers:
Player Games Pass Yds/G Att/G Rush Yd/G Pass TD/G Int/G Rush TDs Combined Yds/G
Taylor 11 222 28 33 1.64 .45 3 255
Rodgers 16 255 34 13 1,75 .81 4 268
The numbers compare pretty well, and GB had a pass-first offense. The point is that we should be encouraged with his performance this year. Looking at it this way gives some perspective.
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I got there at 12:25 and had 2 people ahead of me in line so it took about 45 seconds to get in. And this was at the gate right next to the Bills store.
I've been going to games since 1970 and had season tickets since 1986, entering the stadium post 9/11 has never been easier. And, by the way, exiting is way better, the way they re-engineered the ramps into the bowl works.
Find something real to complain about.
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Buffalo 27
Indy 16
Ryan-Roman-Thurman are a significantly better coaching trio than Pagano-Hamilton-Manusky. I don't buy the SB 50 talk for the Colts and can't see the Bills giving up more than 20 points against them.
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This is a fun and encouraging poll because when you look at the list it really hits you that they did a good job of adding players in the offseason. Add in Ryan and Roman and that's an impressive list.
I watched the Tyrod draft video today and you can't help but come away rooting for the kid. You can have the agent, but Tyrod and his parents are super likable, what a great story it would be if he goes in and plays well.
Hard just picking one in this poll though. In many respects, the way Roman, Taylor, McCoy, Incognito and Harvin work together and mesh with the other offensive pieces will be the big story, hard to single one out though I agree if the QB pans out that pretty much trumps everything else. If that happens, it will be because Roman was a good OC, Richie helped solidify the line, McCoy was dyanmic as he has been in the past and Clay and Harvin were added to Watkins and Woods to form a formidable receiving corps.
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It looks like the biggest names out there are:
Matt Cassel
TJ Yates
Rex Grossman
Christian Ponder
Others:
Tim Tebow
Matt Flynn
Josh Freeman
Thad Lewis
It is interesting that teams that picked up QBs bypassed these name guys and signed/claimed Logan Thomas (Miami) and Stephen Morris (Eagles). My guess is that for #3s the teams are looking for developmental players for the league minimum. The first 4 above are most likely looking to be backups and earn more.
If the Bills want to carry 3 QBs and could sign Yates or Ponder for $1-1.5 million, then I'm good with that. A lot of people figured Simms for the practice squad but the whole argument for keeping Cassel was that you wanted some insurance if your 2 unproven, developing QBs failed or got hurt. If that's the reason, the practice squad QB makes no sense. Therefore, if you want a 3rd QB as insurance then you sign one of the first 4 guys. The bottom 4 are listed mostly for illustrative purposes to show how shallow the available QB pool is right now. No way I want any of them.
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My cuts:
Matt Cassel
Matt Simms (practice squad)
John Connor
Bronson Hill
Nick O'Leary (practice squad)
Tobias Palmer
Dezmin Lewis (practice squad)
Andre Davis (practice squad)
Deonte Thompson
William Campbell
Dalton Freeman
DJ Johnson
Alex Kupper
Andre Fluellen
Alex Carrington
BJ Larsen
Quentin Groves
Kevin Reddick
IR - Tony Steward (I think he got hurt)
Merrill Noel
Cierre Wood
Red Bryant
That's 22, leaves them with 7 WRs but I really think Thigpen makes it because he is such a good punt returner.
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This is good thinking, but you need to flip it around a bit. If there was a real chance FredEx wouldn't dress on Sunday, it would mean that his role on the team had become too limited to keep his spot on the roster - not because he might not be able to play with or even outplay the other backup RBs on offense, but because he's no longer a special team contributor. Fredex was getting paid too much to sit in civvies on game day. You want a cheap insurance backup for that role (Brown)
Every year we cut players that have fans shaking their heads because we see them playing better than a player who was kept at their primary position. ST is always the hidden roster driver, along with cost per perceived value.
I *think* they plan to keep 4 RB, but it's possible they like Wood and plan to stash him on the practice squad.
I agree with this too.
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I think that the 47 active players was a big reason Fred Jackson was released. Similar to last year, they will probably only have 3 active on game day, and after McCoy my guess is that the other two would be K. Williams (#2 back and special teams) and Dixon (special teams, goal line and change up runner). So if Jackson isn't released, he's on the team but as long as the RBs are healthy he is inactive (healthy scratch) on Sunday. The PR nightmare of Fred in street clothes on Sundays week after week was probably perceived to be worse than taking the hit now and giving him a chance to land on another team (looks like Seattle).
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I'm thinking that one of the considerations in the decision to release Fred Jackson was who would be active on game days. Presuming that they keep 4 RBs, if they kept Fred the 4 RBs would have most likely been McCoy, Jackson, Dixon and Williams. Like last year, they probably only dress 3 on game days, and my guess that would have been:
McCoy - obvious
Williams - #2 back and special teams contributor
Dixon - special teams and goal line runner
They may have felt that taking the PR hit and releasing him so he could latch on somewhere else vs. the PR nightmare of him not suiting up on Sundays was the lesser of two evils. This may have been the "other considerations" that they alluded to.
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I am thinking start EJ and use Taylor for 10-15 plays a game. Depending on how each plays the mix changes and if EJ really struggles you go to Taylor. Keep Cassel as insurance the team has too much talent to have Simms as disaster QB. The key is that both EJ and TT are getting better every week which means that they are getting excellent coaching and both have upside potential. As fans that should be exciting for us.
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Talk about overvaluing players. Let's face it, whatever WRs fail to make the team were at best the 7th best player at the position for the Bills. So If they are the 7th or 8th best option for Buffalo, what are they going to be for another team? At best, probably #4. What would you give up for a #4 WR? I'm probably not trading anything, I'll pick someone up off waivers.
The same goes for RB. If the Bills look to trade their #5 RB, they would be at best #3, maybe a#2 RB on their new team. Starting RBs don't have much value, what does a #3 RB?
The point is that if you have depth at a position, trading the one that falls outside the 53 man roster returns almost nothing. Stop overvaluing the Bills guys and be realistic in what could come in a trade.
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My 10 takeaways from the game so far, in no particular order:
1. Taylor and Cassel are doing what everyone expected so whoever they choose to start will be very telling in terms of coaching mindset. Do they go with the safe Cassel or the more risk/reward Taylor? The middle ground and more innovative would be Cassel starts and Taylor plays 10-15 plays a game in certain packages.
2. As much as I hate to admit it, IK can play and makes the team.
3. They have no OL depth but I'm not going to kill them for it. They did a very good job upgrading the first team, Urbik will be okay so I think it's too much to ask that they shore up 2 starting spots and all the backups in 1 offseason. I also think the coaching staff will have a positive impact on the group and maybe Cyrus or Cyril become decent backups.
4. Don't be surprised if Thigpen makes the team. He's a really good return guy. If Hogan's out for the season that could open a slot for Thigpen. I also wouldn't assume Easley is a lock. I think his return ability is more important than a Thompson or Davis who probably will not even be in uniform on Sundays.
5. It's still stunning to me (and defies all odds) that all 5 running backs that started camp are hurt.
6. The preseason can't end soon enough.
7. With all the OTAs, I'm not worried about timing, familiarity, etc. If Orton can develop rapport with the receivers coming in cold right before the season and starts week 5, then whoever the QB is will be fine with the receivers.
8. 4 TEs will make this team. Right now my money's on Clay, Gray, Gragg and Mulligan. O'Leary to practice squad.
9. EJ makes the team. If you go by the "the best 53 make the team despite position, he's got to be in there.
10. If Rex is playing vanilla D and still has all these blitzes, imagine what he has in mind for the regular season.
Gameday Thread Bills/Panthers 2nd Half
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by jwhit34
Vlad, Davis Holmes and Hauschka for a comp 3rd and 4th