OldTimer1960
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Posts posted by OldTimer1960
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It's a bit hard to take your opinion seriously when you can't remember Travis Henry.
C'mon man, I've been watching the Bills for 40+ years and following the draft
closely for another 25 years. After a while the names all kind of run together. Seriously,
you think the point is invalid because I couldn't remember Travis Henry's name?
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Some candidates:
Newton - lots of off field issues, never has had to read a defense. Clear physical talent.
Fairley - one year wonder, not as big/powerful as expected, lots of talent, but...
Kyle Rudolph - always injured.
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What player from this draft will turn out to be totally useless? It doesn't have to be someone the Bills pick, but should be someone in say the top 50. By totally useless I mean barely ever see the field.
My pick is Mallett. He is far too slow for the NFL.
I think Mallett will fail, but because he is a numb-skull, not because he has poor
foot speed.
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Nawrockii has problems with a lot of guys "character" every year--he's always whining and making silly predictions based on this nonsense. No way Failry goes at 16, nor Miller at #1.
Do you think character doesn't impact how good of a pro a player becomes? Look at a couple of former
Bills:
1. Marshawn Lynch had character red-flags coming out of college. He had enough off-field problems
in the NFL that the Bills ditched him and he is OK, nothing special in the NFL.
2, Unfortunately, I can't even remember his name, but he was the RB before they drafted McGahee. He had
talent, but lots of off-field problems including shagging an underaged girl and he was kind of drummed out
of the league. He now pays child support for something like 9 children to different women (not exaggerating).
There are a boat-load of players who don't have the work-ethic to succeed in the NFL and they for the most
part flame out in spite of their talent. Now, as Marv Levy used to say, it's the work-ethic and internal drive that
you have to be concerned about. If a player has other stupid off-field stuff, you can hope that it doesn't get
him suspended. BUT, the guys who haven't demonstrated the work-ethic most often fail.
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Third overall picks from 03-08:
2008 Matt Ryan
2007 Joe Thomas
2006 Vince Young
2005 Braylon Edwards
2004 Larry Fitzgerald
2003 Andre Johnson
Vince Young didn't pan out, and there were some guys before 03 who didn't either, but picking third means the player becomes one of the best at their position. With 5 out of 6 guys having met that criteria, it should not be out of the question in 2011 for Buffalo.
Nix and Gailey talk about not wanting to pick 3rd again, but if they're going to improve (and that's no guarantee) then they need to strike gold with their top picks. And for a team with 0 Pro Bowl starters from 2010, it has to start with this decision. Just an above average player isn't going to cut it. The league is predicated on having a few stars with a great supporting cast. Buffalo has no stars and an inferior supporting cast, at least as of right now.
I don't think that Braylon Edwards has really lived up to expectations. Cleveland didn't want him
any longer and he did OK with the Jets. I do agree that Ryan, Thomas, Fitzgerald and Johnson are
great.
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I'm at the point where I don't care. All I ask of Nix is he gets a guy that:
a) doesn't play RB
b) can contribute in a meaningful way within rookie year
c) becomes perennial pro bowler
Aside from that I don't care what position he plays or who he is. This team is in serious need of stars and the #3 pick is the spot to get one. Don't fudge this up, Buddy.
The expectations that a #3 overall pick has to be a pro-bowler or is a bust is
just flat unrealistic. You HOPE to get an outstanding player, expect to get a solid
starter and dread missing completely like they did with Maybin.
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how about this for a dream draft
1st - Robert Quinn - 34 OLB, 43DE
2nd- Marvin Austin - 34 DE, 43DT
3rd- Quan Sturdivant or Kelvin Sheppard - ILB
4th- Casey Matthews - ILB
4th - Sione Fua - 34 NT
would anyone really be upset if this was our draft, maybe robert quinine was a reach but he would definitely fill a need. maybe would could just take the whole NC defense. LOL
With all the hype that UNC defensive players are getting, you'd think that their
team would have been awesome. I don't think that they were (even the year
before when all of their players weren't suspended).
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Miller compares nothing like Maybin except for the fact that they are both fast.
Agreed and he doesn't even compare in speed. Miller ran something like a 4.53 in the 40 at the
combine. If I remember correctly, Maybin was close to a 4.9 and his lack of speed was blamed
on "bulking up from 225 to 245 too fast". Miller has only put on about 7 lbs since the end of
his senior year and he had 2 completely outstanding years against good competition. Indeed,
his 27 sacks the last 2 years are remarkable in the run-oriented conference that he played
in.
FWIW, ProFootballWeekly has Miller as BY FAR the highest rated player in the draft. I know that
they are not always dead-on, but neither are any draft prognosticators. I give Nolan Nawrocki
of PFW a lot of credit for doing both his own analysis AND for having a lot of NFL connections,
so he has a good pulse on the NFL's view.
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1. Franchise QB.
2. Dominant pass rusher. Any position, DE, OLB.
3. Run Stopper ILB.
4. Compantent OT.
5. Pass Catching TE.
Trade down from 3 to 7 with SF. Get a 2nd and 4th pick.
1st round, Cameron Jordan DE. California.
2nd round. Gabe Camiri OT. Wisconsin.
2nd round. Kelvin Shepard ILB. LSU.
3rd round. Luke Stocker TE. Tennessee.
4th round. Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder QB.
4th round. Tom Keiser OLB. Stanford.
4th round. DeMarcus Van Dyke CB. Miami.
THE DAWN OF THE NEW BUFFALO BILL EMPIRE! SUPERBOWL OR BUST!
I like it. I was worried when you listed QB first, but it seems like many you don't see
a franchise QB in the draft.
Nit-picking: I am not sure Kelvin Sheppard is worth a 2nd and I don't think Dalton or
Ponder will be around after the 2nd. FWIW, I like both Ponder and Dalton, as well as
Kaepernick.
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There's that, and theres also about a 95% chance that none of these 2-7th round guys will ever be as good as Ryan Fitzpatrick is right now. So it would be a wasted pick.
If they want to take that 5% lottery ticket chance on Taylor in the 4th or 5th, then I wouldn't get crazy upset over something like that.
I kind of agree with this sentiment, but I don't like Newton in round 1 and I am not sure I like Gabbert enough
to take there, either. I am a little intrigued with Ponder (who would likely be a 1st rnd pick if it weren't for
the injury problems he's had with his arm) and Kaepernick who is every bit the athlete that Newton is, but comes
at a much lower price if they get him in rnd 2 instead of Newton in rnd 1. I am not all that convinced that
either Newton's or Kaepernick's athletic ability really mean much when projecting them to QB in the NFL. Look
at the best QBs in the league: Manning, Rivers, Brees, Brady, Roethlisberger and Vick. Of them, Vick (has only
had one great year (and he had to learn to be a good passer before he had that) and Roethlisberger are the
only really good athletes. Heck, you could argue that Manning, Brady and Rivers are pretty "poor" athletes
(at least by NFL standards).
I'd rather see someone who has demonstrated in college that he can identify the right receiver to throw to
and hit him when they aren't open by 5-10 yards. Something Newton hasn't had to do and I am not sure
that Gabbert did much of that, either.
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I have access to ProFootballFocus.com's extensive statistical database (draft droids like that sort of thing). AFC East TE's are increasingly becoming a factor, and it's passing the Bills --and the Jets--by. Look at this:
MIA Anthony Fasano, #4 overall rating among NFL TE's out of 107 TE's
NEP Rob Gronkowski, #5
NEP Alge Crumpler, #10
NEP Aaron Hernandez #13
MIA Mickey Schuler #34 (led league in yards per reception among TE's)
BUF Scott Chandler #39
NYJ Ben Hartsock #52
NYJ Matthew Mulligan #52 (tie)
BUF Shawn Nelson #56
NYJ Jeff Cumberland #60
BUF Jonathan Stupar #82
NYJ Dustin Keller #84
BUF David Martin #87
Crumpler (available as a FA last season) ended up as the #3 run blocker. Kleinsasser was a FA and ended up 7th in run blocking.
Chandler ended up as the Bills' best pass receiver, but in 61st place. He led in pass blocking (48th place), and in run blocking (#34).
Stupar had the best Thrown At/Caught Ratio, 92%. Although 7 TE's had 100% ratios this year, Stupar was next, so 8th in the league.
Do we need more from the TE position? Certainly, and we could do much more with whom we have. Is any help going to come from the draft? This is an extremely weak position, so don't count on the Bills drafting Rudolph in RD2. Stocker's stock has fallen so that he'd likely be there in RD3. Kendricks from Washington is a 4th Rounder--sort of a lumbering type. DJ Williams is more athletic and would be a good receiver, but he's 6'2" and not likely better than Chandler/Stupar. I think the Bills have to acquire a TE in Free Agency when --and if-- it happens.
I agree, if the team could upgrade the TE position it would do wonders for the offense. Unfortunately, as you indicate, the
draft is VERY weak at TE. MAYBE they can score a decent TE in FA - IF there is FA this year...
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...
1) They like Fitzy and he is good enough to play a couple more seasons as the starter and even though many fans don't believe this, the reality is Chan believes it and he has said so several times. If anything, they will go QB in a later round (and there are some quality QB's in this draft that will be available)
IF ANY team thought that they were real starting quality, they'd have been gone by the end of round 1.
2) To draft one at #3 means you plan to start him pretty quickly given the money they will probably be getting and, as per point number one, I don't think that they plan on not starting Fitzy. I DON"T AGREE WITH THIS...
3) I believe the anemic run defense and pass rush are way too critical to ignore in this draft and whether it be DE, DT, OLB or CB, one of these positions has got to be the #3 pick. I'm not a pro Von Miller at #3 guy but would rather see that then a QB at #3. I DO AGREE HERE, BUT IF A TRUE NFL STARTING QB IS AVAILABLE, THEN THEY MUST TAKE
HIM.
4) Chan got a close op look at several of the other QB's at the Senior Bowl and I think he has his eye on one of those guys after the 1st rd. I ADMIT THAT I AM INTRIGUED
BY PONDER AND DALTON, ESPECIALLY LOCKER IF HE IS AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF ROUND 2.
5) I'm no pro scout, but I don't believe Newton or Gabbert will have "Franchise QB" type of success in the NFL. QB's who can read and pick apart defenses and hang in the pocket instead of running account for 95% of the franchise type QB's. TOTALLY AGREE!
6) The lines need to be solidified before any QB can have great success on this team. If a QB has not ime for routes to develop, to set his feet, to see the field before someone's in his face, or to even hand off the ball before being hit, how can he have success. We need at least one more pick on the O-line if not two before we will have consistent offensive success at either QB or RB. TRUE DAT
In summation, IMHO we can't afford to go QB at #3 and if I, like many others who feel this way are wrong then we'll get a shot at another top ten QB next year if our record doesn't improve much or at all. WITH YA...
Go Da'Quan\Fairley! NOT GROOVING ON FAIRLEY AT ALL. IMHO, HE IS THE BUST IN WAITING ON D.
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I just want to see how opinion is stacking up.
I chose Newton because I think he has a higher ceiling, but I wouldn't be unhappy if we selected Gabbert.
I keep seeing people saying that Newton's ceiling is higher, but I don't understand why. Is it because of
his running ability? If so, take Locker or Kaepernick who are similar or better athletes with equivalent
arms. I don't see ANYTHING that Newton has done that translates to the NFL. Even Vince Young and
Mike Vick haven't been big running threats in the NFL. Vick had to learn to be more of a passer to succeed
and I am not sure Young has succeeded. Can anyone name a good NFL QB who was more of a threat
as a runner than he was a passer? I'd have to go back to Bobby Douglas of the Bears in the 70s - and he
wasn't a good QB.
I just think that Newton is SOOO raw and hasn't proven that he has the work ethic to succeed. Maybe more
importantly, he has ZERO experience reading defenses and making quick decisions on who to throw to. I
think that is a very big issue, because I think that is the one thing that can't be taught. If it could be taught,
then I think Rob Johnson and JP Losman would have been successful NFL QBs. Both had good-very good
athletic ability and both had outstanding arms, yet they never could learn to make those quick decisions.
On the flip side, nobody will every accuse Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers or Drew Brees of being
great athletes or having cannons for an arm, but they are 4 of the very best QBs in the NFL - clearly there
is more to being a good QB than having a big arm and great athletic ability.
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Boulware and McGinest were actually very good players, but I wonder how many Bills fans would be happy if they knew that the ceiling on Miller was their career output.
Boulware was better than McGinest, but lasted only 7 seasons total. Excellent pass rusher, but wasn't very big and not surprisingly wore down quicker. Probably the best comparison of the bunch to Miller, but Miller is not built at sturdily as Boulware was. I loved Boulware's game, but with the highest pick the organization has had in 25 years, I'd prefer a guy who I think might actually be around for 9-10 seasons.
McGinest was a disappointment for his first 7 plus years. His strong suit was playing better in the second half of his career, but he still was never the game changer he was projected to be. He had a DE frame at around 270 so he's not a good comparison to Miller.
The Bills will be fortunate to find a guy at #3 who has the career that Willie McGinest had. I don't think a lot of #3 picks were as good as he turned out.
http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/27277/mcshay-bills-prefer-gabbert-to-newton
First off, i figured this was funny since rotoworld just reported that the Bills prefer Newton, and now McSuntan says the Bills prefer Gabbert. (I guess its a fair assumption now that Gabbert isn't even on the Bills board)
But more importantly, THIS passes as reporting? tim graham reports what Todd McShay says? So now, so called "journalists" are even lazier and simply regurgitate what one of their co-workers for the same company reports? I suppose pencil-neck will have an article in an hour about how "2 sources have said the Bills would take Gabbert over Newton."
Where did anyone see that Gabbert is off the Bills board? I don't believe that for a minute.
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Gailey made a BIG point last year of making rookies earn their playing time. IMHO, that was
HUGE in keeping the veterans engaged. By keeping the rooks on the bench until they unseated
a vet, it kept the vets playing hard - and setting a good example of professionalism for the
rookies.
Note that Spiller was benched quickly after he started slowly, Troup and Carrington had to
earn their playing time, etc. I think that is win-win. The vets show play hard and show the
rookies what it takes to play, the rookies realize they need to work hard to EARN a starting
job. What's not to like about that?
I don't think that Gailey will change that MO for any of the QBs in this rookie class. I think it
would be a HUGE mistake, if he did.
FWIW, I would HATE them taking Cam Newton. I don't see anything that he did in college
translating to the NFL. He won with his legs and the threat of a run getting his first read
open.
IF the Bills insist on an "athletic" QB, then I'd rather have Gabbert or Locker or Kaepernick (in
round 2). I see NOTHING that Newton has on Locker in terms of athletic ability or production
and I don't see anyone clammoring for Locker at #3. I think Locker wins in terms of work
ethic and dedication and he is at least even in terms of athletic ability. Yes, Newton's completion
% was better, but he played on a very talented Auburn team that featured his running and Locker
played in a VERY bad program, but it was more a pro-style offense.
Now, I am not touting Locker at #3. I am just saying that I like him better than Newton. Given
my druthers, I'd go D in round one and consider the best of Locker, Kaepernick and Dalton
in round 2.
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No. We need a QB, why would we trade out pick to another team who needs a QB and not just take the QB?
Because the QBs aren't that good. I don't like Newton at all and am only a little sold that Gabbert is any better
prospect than Locker, Kaepernick, Ponder and Dalton.
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that passing on a QB in round 1 and finding one in round 2-7 is a great
option, all things being equal. I AM saying that I don't really think that there is a QB worth a first round pick
this year. FWIW, if they feel strongly that they MUST have a QB in round 1, to me it is Gabbert or bust. I don't
like Newton's personality, character concerns or the fact that he won with his legs rather than his arm.
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If the Panthers like Clausen so little that they'd take a 6th round pick for him 1 year
after spending their 2nd on him, then that would speak volumes about how little
is thought of Clausen.
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Brian Brohm guys......that is all Im gonna say
I don't see any comparison. By all accounts I have seen, Locker is a leader,
a tenacious competitor and a tremendous athlete on the same level as Cam
Newton. He has a great arm and played in a pro-style offense. The admittedly
big red flag is his passing accuracy. The fact that he was surrounded by
inferior talent may be a mitigating factor. I don't know if the accuracy issue
can be fixed or not, but I don't see him as any bigger risk than Newton or any
other QB in the draft, especially if he were available in the top of the 2nd.
Brohm on the other hand isn't a leader and compiled big completion stats in
a contrived offense in the Big East. His arm and athleticsm don't compare at
all to Lockers.
Just my $.02 worth...
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fixing a faulty pump when you have a bad engine doesn't make sense either.
How about doing both.
Upgrade the QB position and upgrade the OL, DL, LB, etc.
You can't do all that this offseason without spending huge money in
free agency, if you can even do it then.
You CAN find good players in any round of the draft with some skill and
more luck, but obviously you count more on high picks to be your better
players that can upgrade your team.
I think this team DOES need a better QB candidate than Fitzgerald. That doesn't
mean that Fitz is currently the weakest link on this team (he isn't), but he will
likely be a limiting factor as the talent around him is upgraded. You GENERALLY
don't find good QBs after round 1 (I know, I know, Tom Brady was a 6th rnd pick
and Kurt Warner wasn't even drafted, but look at the good starting QBs in the
league and most were #1 picks - a good percentage of them high number 1s.)
Does that mean that picking a QB high in round 1 guarantees success? Of course
not, but if any team thinks that a QB has "it", he will most likely be gone in round 1.
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Is he? Maybe he just doesn't take tests well. Maybe the test isn't a true indicator of intelligence. He doesn't seem to have any problems
being understood. This is just one interview. There are many more.
youtube.com/watch?v=FSCkXnqyViw&feature=related
Be careful assuming anything about anyone's intelligence based off a test. Just because one gets a good score on a test doesn't necessarily make
them intelligent. Change the subject of the test, change other dynamics of the test maybe they will do better or not as well. Maybe he blew off
the test. Who knows.
I agree, I have seen other interviews with Peterson and he does not come across as someone
who is extremely dumb.
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I think Fairly has the higher ceiling and lower floor. He is more athletic than Dareus, but Dareus
has a longer track record and, reportedly, has a better work ethic. So, I think that Dareus has
less "bust potential" (ie, less likely to be a total washout), but Fairley has at least some probability
of being a better player than Dareus.
I don't think the Bills can afford to "gamble on greatness" yet again. That's unfortunate picking
this high, but their past misses really have set them back. The Pats' formula is to find solid contributors
and (higher floor) and hope to occasionally find a star like Brady. That seems to work well for them.
Now, to implement the Pats' strategy, it helps to be able to trade down. I understand all the arguments
against trading down (again) and the problems finding a partner to trade down with...
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I just don't believe in Cam Newton.
Newton is:
1. a one year producer that didn't win with NFL skills (more running than passing, no exp under center, ...)
2. a tremendous athlete - nobody doubts that.
3. a guy who has a lot of character red-flags (stolen computers, academic fraud, at least
periphery involvement in trying to get money during his recruitment
I think Newton is too fake and is a disaster waiting to happen, even if he had no character flaws.
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Dontay Moch
40 yd: 4.45
vert: 42"
20 yd shuttle: 4.38
3 cone: 7.09
Sam Acho
40: 4.63
Bench 23
Vert: 33.5
20 yd shuttle: 4.32
3 cone: 6.69
I wouldn't put too much concern into Dareus' bench numbers. The guy is huge and plenty
strong. Bench doesn't represent anchor strength and reps of 225 are as much endurance as
they are indicative of power (at least for guys as strong as these guys are).
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It’s the Bills, they will strongly pursue a middle round pick and take him 2-3 rounds too high.
This is not an exact science. There are no "round" grades on players that apply to all teams.
In hindsight if some team had taken Tom Brady in the 3rd, should they have been chastised
for taking him higher than projected? I am NOT saying that this guy, whoever he is, is remotely
close to Tom Brady. I am saying that there might be 2-3 round differences in "round grades"
on a given player from team-to-team.
How Nolan Nawrocki views
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
What does the last paragraph that I wrote say? I distinguished between poor work-ethic and lack of dedication
and stupid off-field incidents. Do you not think that a poor work ethic could cause someone to fail? What about
the Bengals Andre Smith? He looks to be flaming out and there were signs that he might, yet he was quite dominant
in college.
I didn't say that you should discount any draft eligible player who has done something stupid, but I do think that
if they haven't shown that they will work, that they can't learn or if they've been in trouble with the team or off-field
several times, then you should consider that.