GrudginglyPessimistic

Agreed! Certainly being different from the ol offense is a necessary starting point. It does not guarantee success as it is possible to be different but worse. However, it clearly has to be way different if there is any hope that it is gonna be way better! Overall, I would say there is not much tangible for an outsider to go on as even the QBs (about as inside as you can get) seem to not know the specifics. Though the key here is likely to be whether the offensive approach selected is a good one, one only needs look back at the past operation and hear some of the changes in operation being made to be hopeful about this. Specifically: 1. That there were too many voices and that they were saying different things (or at best the same thing different ways) makes a ton of sense. Jauron every one and even he admits was a D minded coach. This puts an extra burden on the OC to be stong-willed and solid and the fact we fired our OC just before the season began speaks volumes about the likelihood last season was not gonna be pleasant. 2. Play design has always been a huge issue for this team since even though the offensive weapons were actually quite massive last year (given Evans speed and on the verge of greatness production, TO's proven production, Parrish speed and proven open field running ability, and given Lynch has a good rep in college as a pass catcher and actually Jackson proved himself to be an all purpose threat last year one wonders actually how were the Bills not potent offensively. The offensive threats last year (even backed up by a very good kicker if they failed) seemed to be a group one would have to actually try to not make it work and the Bills evidently did this. Its great to hear there is new terminology and a soup to nut makeover. 3. The question remains however whether the makeover will be a good one. However, Gailey's record of past offensive success and also that he is committed to making it work with whatever personnel he has rather than his committed to one method and the test will be his skill acquisition of particular styles of players, the extent to which players under contract fit a specific style he brings if he was invested in one style, and the dumb luck of who gets hurt. Gailey seems to be making the right move in adapting his offense to what he has got rather than trying to get players who play a particular style. I like that he is closemouthed about what he intends.

I disagree that in hindsight picking up Bledsoe was a bad move in that like it or not he did play a key role in moving this team from being a 3-13 team to an 8-8 team and though obviously flawed he did play well enough that I think he merited his third QB on the Pro Bowl team nod (if you disagree then you should be able to simply point out which QB you think was a Pro Bowl talent who should have gone over Bledsoe. In hindsight the mistake was not in acquiring Bledsoe but in extending him after his goshawful second year, While the pick-ip of Bledsoe was a wash after two years (1 Pro Bowl season and one dreck, the mistake was in not having the grumbas to recognize this wash and cut him. This was quite easily forseeable by even ocaissional observers and TD missed it. On the other hand the acquisition was pretty clearly a needed move for marketing and the huge immediate payoff in ticket sales shows this. While ignoring the reality of the business of the game would simply be ignorant, it is understandable at least if folks make their judgments based on on the field performance, but if you take this view simply ignoring his great first year of proven production is the ignorant thing.

Generally you are right, but I do not believe that is a correct rendition of the SS role in the Cover 2 which was our base D (and which more accurately was like the version of the Cover 2 known as the Tampa 2 in that it was similar to the Tampa 2 in that we used the MLB as a middle of the field deep cover guy but we never had the quality DT play that Tampa had at the height of effectiveness of this D). In the style Cover 2 we played rather than the SS having his prime responsibilities be pass coverage on the TE or an RB who comes out of the backfield into the pass route and having his primary run responsibility be the 8th man in the boxm in our base D the SS actually had deep coverage duty on the WRs. The FS positions and the SS positions were basically the same in the Bills Cover 2 since they actually had essentially the same roles on opposite sides of the field regarding pass coverage. Both Ss were called upon to make reads on regard to whether the run was headed their way and in particular whether there was a receiver headed to the deep outside flag pattern they had primary responsibility for, but actually to some extent Byrd and Wilson made glitzier pass coverage plays than Whitner as the way Byrd in particular and also Wilson to some extent played great centerfielder roles picking off poorly thrown and excelling at tip drill INTs when the ball was thrown poorly to the primary receiver on the play. Perhaps Whitner can be faulted actually for playing the run well in that he focused primary attention to his work on the run rather than concentrate on the INTs which Byrd did so well on and Wilson made some notable plays. Actually though I think a bit of what happened was that opposing OCs likely passed a lot trying to exploit the young and relatively inexperienced at S Wilson and these two athletes made them pay for their mistakes.

Actually I think the questions of what would be like if we had Pro Bowlers instead of Fitz or the cast of folks who played LT last year is likely obvious as in every close game. In the case of replacement of either position be it a QB who simply carried the team Brett Farve like (meaning a stud QB can deliver winning seeming virtually by himself or he can also lose a few games with bad choices even if he is a Pro Bolwer) but my sense is a Pro Bowl LT likely gives the Bills such a go-behind guy on the left side they run for and pick up a critical 1st down or 2 each game they were unable to get so a Pro Bowl LT also likely delivers demonstrable winning advantage IF reality could be altered. However, it cannot so it brings us to the actual question the Bills face: A. What are the chances the Bills pick up a ProBowl LT this off-season? Virtually nil as Chad Clifton appears to be about the best you can do in FA right now as Scouts .com ranks none other than Mike Gandy as the best UFA out there after Clifton at T. The best shot at getting a Pro Bowl level LT comes if they draft a tip T prospect and train and luck into him being a hyper stud. Could happen but pretty doubtful. B. The chances of acquiring a stud enough QB in FA are limited with Derrick Anderson and Delhomme about the best you can do from UFAs. The prospects of getting even a credible QB for next year in the draft are less than nil. There is virtually no possibility also that we can find a QB capable of leading this lack of character production on the field happen from drafting one of the prominent rookies. Rookies have no history of leading teams to a winning (much less playoff making level without a stud team around them (I do not remember any but lots of history so if anyone chooses to believe in rookie QBs leading a team immediately to victory please educate me and the others reading TSW with the example. Worse yet, this rookie QB likely gets killed by the DBQ and in my miind would be lucky to survive the season.

There are several posts in threads below (some even site quotes from someone who actually is a Bills decision-maker but many are simply fact-free opinions) which made various stone cold certainty claims which reminded me of a few points which I think are likely true as we declare our own opinions that I think folks should keep in mind: 1. If the Bills braintrust is smart then they are simply lying about a lot of things they say. This means when you quote the words of the braintrust one must simply understand that if they are smart they are probably lying about what they say. Its nothing personal and its nothing against you as a person (no matter how much you may deserve it). However, if the Bills are actually serving your ultimate interests (which I assume for many of you is to have a team that puts up enough Ws to certainly make the playoffs for the first time in a decade but if we get lucky and we are good even win the SB). The thing the Bills braintrust needs to do in order to be most successful at reaching this goal is to at the very least not tip their hand as to what our plans, needs, and desires are. Actually if they are good and want to get maximum advantage they would do well in serving us fans that they flat out fool everyone as to what our plans, needs, and desires are. Its a tough game in that if you get the rep as a liar no one will believe you and it becomes impossible or hard to make trades or reach contractual agreements with your own players. Its tough in that by my judgment as a fan I could not really trust anything that TD for example said. However, I was a lot of times quite happy he was actually such a pretty accomplished liar as he used his steely nerve to do things like get a 1st rounder for Peerless Price (and actually keep a good relationship with PP who had the contractual right to mess up our game but he trusted TD and got the reward of a huge contract for not throwing a hissy fit when the Bills tagged him) and also to stick to his guns as potential trade partners drafted RBs but he still got a first day pick in exchange for this felon. I am glad we got rid of TD because I really disliked how he tried to build a team but I honestly (and I think correctly) acknowledge that the fact he lied all the time really benefitted us in some specific cases. The bottom-line is that while it would be nice for me as a fan to know what we are doing, because I am most committed to this team putting up Ws I really hope the braintrust is at least not being honest we me and the public and further I would not be displeased if they are simply flat-out lying and fooling me. 2. That pesky thing called reality matters. This means that while a major contention held strongly by some on TSW (and which theoretically I agree with actually) the BEST way to build a team is from the trenches out. It strikes me as flat out clear that the BEST way to build is from the inside out, but as far are reality dictates who cares. The Bills have neither laid the groundwork for building from the inside out nor accumulated some outstanding "skill" position players that the course for us to build from is obvious. IMHO there are two draft a great QB strategies which have worked since Dallas took Aikman in the 80s and reached the goal of an SB win. A. Draft a stud QB like P. Manning and build around him and B. get a player like RoboQB who is a first round draftee who can join with your one step away from glory team to win it all. The problem with a QB pick in the first is this team is no where near where Pitts was in drafting a 1st round QB that makes the difference and as best I can tell none of the potential 1st round choices at QB is anywhere near what P. Manning brought to the table (Tebow seems closest in leadership quality where actually having him should make our troubled OL play better, but his problem is that Tebow does not appear to be a Manning in terms of running the Pro offense productively and also Manning came with the quick release that gave his OL time to grow around him. Tebow (who proved as a college player that he is merely human when it comes down to the devastating hit appears unlikely to survive for a couple of years behind our challenged OL while they learn to protect him and he learns a speedy Pro pass speed which allows him to protect himself. IMHO, the Bills get better fastest by going to the default of getting more talent in the trenches and doing an at least adequate job so they do not pick a bust like Mike Williams (though ironically I think the other "obvious" LT choice in that draft Bryant McKinnie likely would have been a bad choice for the Bills to make as well as he pretty clearly demonstrated he was an idiot with his holdout and his public sex antics on a booze cruise- if we had taken McKinnie my guess he still would have been an idiot just an idiot on a bad team. The MW/McKinnie situation mostly points toward not being a slave to filling positional need with he best player available with a choice if the best player available is not the best player available overall as both MW and McK had character defects which in retrospect with 20/20 hindsight seem like they could have been detectable. While who knew at the time that the grammy who raised MW would die (the starting point as best I can tell of his downward spiral down the player drain) the Bills braintrust should have been able to see that if they were gonna take this manboy that he was really more of a boyman and that if they took him they better have an old hand like a Ruben Brown take him under his wing if they wanted him to become the adult they wanted. Overall for this team reality matters and in order for this team to become a TEAM there is going to be a need for Gailey to really build a new "family" from bottom to top with whatever good leaders he identifies (Tasker for example was not a great athlete but was a good leader as best as I can tell) to really set the tone for this team. 3. Athletes and players are different things. My sense is that Marshawn Lynch is a much better athlete than Coe College graduate Fred Jackson. However, it seems pretty clear to me that Jackson is a better player than Lynch. The key for the Bills is to get more good players and take into account but not simply be addicted to getting the best athletes. It is a difficult balance as it is true that it is difficult to teach height and difficult to teach speed. The athleticism of players is a real factor to be accounted for. However, the main failing I feel as a fan judging who we should take and who we should not is that particularly in this world where the first things potential athletes learn is to fake sincerity is that it is hard for us outsiders to judge character without shaking someone's hand and looking them in the eye to assess their character. These men are pretty much all accomplished athletes and I look for the proof being in the pudding that there is something there that adds to the strengths and limitations they bring to the table. The bottomline for me is that I actually am not willing to throw a Chris Kelsay under the bus as I think it may be possible he could make the shift for us and become a useful OLB. He does have some good raw talent and has demonstrated a persistence that. Hpwever, the proof is in the pudding and Kelsay has not produced enough on the field for anyone to come anywhere near assuming he will be enough of a player to do the job the Bills need as an OLB (or even less likely as an undersized RDE in a 3-4. However, he has gained too much experience as a Pro, shown a lot of persistence as a high motor DE the Bills have loved, shown some stoutness against the run for us, even showed some good speed running way back when at the Combine (despite various revisionist whiners labeling him slow even though his problems have been more about the lack of a quick first step and effective first move rather than slowness(. The bottomline is that the Bills simply do not have any great talents who demand to be given the starting DE job or the OLB job and Kelsay should not be cut at all and should not even be traded unless another team is foolish enough to give up a high first day pick for him. In my book, I have no problem with Maybin, Schobel, and/or Ellis making it easy to do without Kelsay, but I would have big problems if the Bills simply gave up on him and cut him without giving reality a chance to dispose of him on the field.

This is not a post about whether Edwards or particularly Davis are good players (I think it is pretty generally agreed Davis a great get for a Bills team moving to a 3-4 with a history of run stopping problems). However, regardless of how one judges the quality of these players it is pretty clear that each of them had multiple visits and were in demand from other teams and that both of them chose to come to this small market rather than go elsewhere, Those who made the claim that no FAs we wanted or that were in demand elsewhere would bother to come to little old Buffalo were simply wrong wrong and wrong. Make no mistake this is a small market and it does take a hearty soul (the type of person we want actually) to come here to live in the cold rather than in the sunny climes of Houston or Jacksonville. We may even need to pay a little bit of a premium. However, this does not matter to us the fans as this team is not in some cap hell causing us to lose out on bidding if Gailey makers good choices. The key to this league is that money talks and those who simply just continue to bad mouth the Bills as being unable to compete for talent due to the market, the weather (and even the losing record which I think is actually the real player limiting factor for older vets looking for a championship before they retire) are simply wrong if they say we cannot compete for not everyone but a lot of talent that has a choice of destinations.

Well this fan who watches the team closely has several questions which you should be able to answer in order to substantiate the position you are taking. 1. Average, underaverage or overaverage are simply opinions that anyone can have when comparing a player to the whole league. The more real opinion though that actually governs this question is whether Stroud was an upgrade or downgrade over what we had before. Maybe you are a big McCargo fan but the Bills have had a big gap at DT going back to when they drafted both Williams and McCargo and Mccargo was a bust for us. A seasoned viewer such as yourself has to admit Stroud wherever you rank him in the league was an upgrade over what we had. I think this is not just opinion but is simply reality and that is where one reasonably must start. 2. Did he cost us more to get than he was worth? A subjective question for sure, but actually the cost of two second day draft choices for an immediate starter is simply not a large cost. The draft has become tremendously overrated thanks to the promotion of ESPN, Mel Kiper and hundreds of magazines that have found overpromotion of the draft to be a good way to get nickels from football starved fans. Every third rounder is a Joe Montana which just ain't true. In fact almost half of 1st rounders are John McCargo and the Bills did not give up all that much to get Stroud. In fact, if one wants to claim he costs to much for his play they have a better case to be made for his extension than for his trade. However, as the Bills have been sitting on cap room for a few years, the simple fact is the cost of Stroud did not cost this team better players. If you want to offer the opinion he is overrated that's fine but if you want it to be more than a fact-free opinion then whom do you think that was available the Bills should have acquired at DT.

My strong sense is that rather than deep disappointment in his play the Bills staff likely judge 09 as a season cut short by an early season injury rather than as being disappointed in Mitchell's play. This is an extremely young team and like it or not Mitchell is I think the only athlete on this team who played a key role on an SB winner. Particularly with the heightened value to us on an LB with the switch to a 3-4 I think it is really doubtful they cut Mitchell.

My sense is that my judgment was that Pos was actually a better talent in college when he played OLB his junior year than when an injury forced a move of him to MLB where he played well enough to draw a pick from the Bills who after giving up on Fletcher had a hole at MLB. If the Bills judge McClain to be a better talent at MLB than the options at OLB in this draft my since is the take McClain and move Pos to his more natural OLB position. Pos showed both the speed to cover the deep middle in the Tampa 2 stylr version of the Cover 2 we ran that I have no issue with him playing the cover role called for by an OLB and he showed some good talent as a delayed blitz artist when called upon to do that as our MLB so I think this move would work. The Bills actually have a need for two starter quality OLB players as we move to a 3-4 as I think Ellison has done well for a second day pick but really is not an outstanding OLB. Draft also surprised with how well he played due to injuries but he is a marginal starter at best/ Ironically the Bills might end up loaded if they sign FA Davis and flip Pos with this move and then also have potential of playing Maybin at what many see as a more natural OLB position given his size, pass rushing talent and the LB # the Bills assigned him. Add to this that apparently part of the Schobel decision making may be that a move to OLB may be more attractive to him to come back. The zone blitz was actually more of his game as he shed weight and increased athleticism to play it and often covered not only in the short zone but even in the medium zone in the zone blitz. The options are simply more complicated than the 2 starter hole in the 3-4 means we must pick and OLB in the draft.

If your theory is true and the Bills have in fact decided to lay down in 10 to go for it in 11 then in addition to not seeing any actions to win immediately one should also be able to detect moves to build a winner in 2011. Are you just complaining that they are not doing enough to win now or what strategic moves do you that indicates they are building for 2011?

However are the Bills good enough at a variety of other positions that draft a QB in the first is a likely rebuilding strategy to work for this team? If they draft a QB in the first he likely learns the best by sitting and watching as a rookie (probably true for Claussen as he needs some work in addition to it being useful for him to sit and have his foot recover, almost certainly true for Tebow who even many who are certain he will be great likely learns best by sitting, watching and learning the Pro game while he practices improving the speed of his release to NFL levels before he is ready to use his great leadership qualities, Bradford is probably the most Pro play ready to go in terms of his game, but he probably has the largest injury questions of the three as he missed much of last year with two injuries to the same shoulder. Alternately we ask these men to start immediately but they do so behind an OL badly in need of a first round talent. My guess is that if the Bills go QB this year and LT for 2011 they actually end up with two rookie and a virtual rookie starting in 2011. Its not that I am certain that the rookie QBs will not be good it is that I am certain that the Bills forgoing infusion of 1st round level talent on the OL or the D will in fact be a very bad place for the young QB to develop.

I agree that the QB is the core of the team, but I disagree that the ONLY way to build a TEAM is with the QB, and in addition, that even though the QB is the core of the team that he is the ONLY important or the ONLY essential part of a TEAM. One need only look at the real world events which have surrounded the best QBs in the modern NFL to see that this is true. 1. Peyton Manning may be the best QB ever to play the game but it was quite clear that he absolutely needed to have a significant Indy investment in building an OL, acquisition of a great RB who played most of his career with him, a stud WR to compliment him being there, the best GM in the game to build a supporting cast, one of the best placekickers in the game, and STILL it took Indy getting one of the great D minds at ST to deliver an SB ring to him. Manning and Indy have still done well with various elements essential to winning it all missing, but in the big picture he has proven incapable of winning the SB again without a near perfect convergence of collected assets around him. Manning is clearly the core of the Indy team, but yet it is pretty clear that simply having this solid core is not nearly enough. 2. Tom Brady is by most measures of success the best QB in the modern era and yet the key to his first SB winning season was arguably that Bill Belicheat demonstrated with the introduction of the entire TEAM as a group in their first SB rather than as a bunch of talented individuals that having a TEAM rather than just a great team is the key. If you want so desperately to focus on the individual, even no other than much troubled and failed after a Pro Bowl start here Drew Bledsoe played a flat out essential role in this team winning its first SB from him being unlucky enough to get a collapsed lung (I doubt Brady would have gotten a start until 2003 or 04 while NE went through the same debate we had here if Bledsoe had remained healthy) and then even his haters have to admit the flat out fact that he threw the winning TD pass in a must win game for the Pats after Brady got hurt mid-game (the dumb luck of injury is another reason why your core strategy is a foolish one for the Bills particularly with our OL in serious need of help). 3. Add to this story of potential rapist RoboQB in Pitts, a simple look at this teams history shows how building a core around your D, an aging RB, and the myriad other factors essential for a winning TEAM is actually a workable method of winning it all and the QB came into this team as the addition which put it over the top. In fact, if one tries to insist that starting with a stud QB is THE way to go simply ignores the reality which was Baltimore which used a standard method of acquiring a QB adequate to lead the team to an SB when they acquired failed FA Dilfer to QB a team built around Ray Lewis and the D to SB victory. Do the Bills need a stud QB (likely a 1st round or 1st day choice) to lead their team to an SB? For sure! However like a host of other teams ranging from GB and SF which got their stud QB in a trade with TB, or TB which got 2 time failed QB Brad Johnson from FA, or the Rams which got Warner from his previous gig at Walmart, Balt with FA Dilfer, the Saints which got FA Brees, there are simply tons of ways to get your core QB when you are ready for him (which the Bills are not) its not that I am unsure about the skills of Tebow, Claussen or Bradford, its that I am pretty sure about the lack of skills of this Bills team. The Bills lack both the skills on OL to provide a good learning environment for any of the potentially flawed QBs who are likely to go in the 1st and certainly not a good training ground for Tebow who himself says he is learning a quicker release and almost certainly needs a year or two sitting in games and practicing to learn it. Drafting a QB MIGHT work eventually but do you really believe this team is good enough that merely having a solid young leader will make them a good TEAM? If so specifically who do you see improving and how will this stud QB make them achieve (for the moment lets just assume the QBs are going to prove to be as good as Manning was after a few years and Brady was after 2 years (which essentially is what you are arguing).

I disagree in that in a battle between the players and the owners, I side with us fans. If the players win we fans do get screwed as the team owners raise ticket and other prices so they can pay the huge salaries and also rake in the profits they are use to making. However, if the team owners win I am under no illusion (as you may well be but it is hard to tell) I am also quite confident they will raise prices as high as they can but keep more money if the break the players in a fight. I think both the owners and the players are fools if they decide to fight and kill the game while they go mano a mano. I do not think that either the owners or the players are "right" as far as this one goes but I am pretty sure we fans will be the ones who are victims in this dispute.

The interesting thing to me is that among the seemingly numerous areas of Bills FA inactivity, seeking a #2 WR is prominent to me on the list. Its hard to read motivations into this and even remotely be accurate (not that it does or should stop us armchair pundits) but the Bills have a clear need (one they exacerbated by saying bye to Josh Reed) and actually have $6 million in salary cap room committed to the position last year which even if they utilized it in part they should be able to get talent which in a good year for them would threaten to equal TOs 09 output for the Bills. As the Bills have not yet officially said adios to TO in the same manner they have actually told other FAs like Reed, it does not seem unreasonable if you were the Bills to guesstimate that the market for TO is at worst the $5 per year Cincy apparently used to attract him to visit another small market cold climate (in the modern Internet and easy travel world I think the market size question is a factor but often not a determining one for many FAs) city. Can TO come back? I think it is doubtful actually as he would likely need to accept a serious contract downsizing that in terms of his attempts to market himself to VH1 and such would make this effort harder. However, a long term backended deal which has a large size but small cash to cap payout might work. Depends on the options and in a WR rich draft there are too many wildcards to say without some real inside knowledge.

Again, I think you might well be right about Tebow. However, let's assume that Tebow is the current equivalent of a Peyton Manning like level of skill, it still makes little sense for the Bills to take him in the 1st round and probably not even in the second round as this team has so many holes in it. One QB, no matter how good he is cannot carry an offense to victory just out of college (look no further than the Peyton Manning example where it took a 3-13 record for Indy to land him and Peyton played extremely well his rookie year with his quick release compensating a lot for a learning and still needing some horses OL where despite being the only NFL QB to start all 16 games that year he led the team to the same 3-13 record). Like you most folks realize that quite naturally he will have to modify his game to reach Pro levels and in the particular area of speeding up his release. If the Bills were to spend the first rounder on him rather than getting more talent on the OL one of the main lessons Tebow will learn will be to run for his life or from his back. Even worse which makes it difficult for the Bills to expect a lot from Tebow if we take him is that this team will likely need its first two choices to bring the OL to adequacy but also the switch to the 3-4 creates a critical need for us to get another LB or two and raises a question who is going to be the classic mammoth DT. Tebow likely can add value to the O with his leadership (but in our gap filled OL where Cornell Green is a likely starter after Butler pulled a Sarah Palin on us Tebow is working to make our OL simply be adequate rather than be good) but he will add little value to our D which currently has good but back-up quality Ellison and Draft at OL. The problem is not one of whether Tebow is great or not, the problem is that the Bills are not and some basic improvements need to be made to even allow us to get value out of Tebow's play and leadership ability.

One can easily say this is a mistake for several reasons: 1. You are right that the draft is in many ways a crapshoot as even in strong classes, only slightly above 50% o players taken in the 1st round are starters on the depth charts in their second years from what I have seen in too many years of watching the NFL. Though IMHO its silly to declare any player a bust until after we see 3 seasons of play (witness the loud voices declaring Maybin a bust already they may be right but if these same folks declared Eric Moulds bust after 2 seasons of sad production or these folks ran Brees, Farve or Young out of town they clearly prematurely ejaculated as far as football is concerned) the conventional wisdom is that a 1st rounder should start at some point in his first year. The likelihood even if one flat out agrees that Tebow will be great is that even if he is good as a stellar QB like Manning his first year will mean zero improvement for the W/L of the Bills or if he is as good as Tom Brady he likely needs to sit his first year. Even if he is great drafting Tebow could easily produce a tirade and wailing among Bills faithful and the media at a key position like QB. Given the 0 for a decade playoff performance and the uncertainty of how many trips to the ATM Mr. Ralph has before decisions need to be made, passing on a it is to be hoped good player to wallow in the trenches for years likely starting this year for a top 10 pick (but as you point out even a trench warrior might prove to give a painful career like a Mike Williams or a painful freshman year like McKinnie) or a QB who even if he is one of the best ever likely will need to sit and watch or probably will not help W/L. Taking the risk of drafting a Tebow might well be a mistake. Yes the future is the important thing, but there is a possibility there may be no future if the draft pick performs like many a player and most highly drafted QBs. 2. Most fans have an addiction to there being one player, but anyone who watches this game with more seriousness than it deserves know that the TEAM is the thing. Again we saw this no better than with the two players who actually delivered SB wins to the teams which drafted them since Dallas took Aikman back in the 80s, neither Manning nor RoboQB could do it alone. The Bills have such glaring needs at so many positions, Tebow better add value to the O, D and ST through sheer force of will as it likely will be fatal in 2010 (and likely for 2011 as well and easily the 2012 season) if this team forgoes on field contribution from their first round choice rather than build in the trenches. We need to build a TEAM and a glitzy choice at QB might help this but likely Tebow or any QB drafted is gonna have to spend as much of 2010 avoiding getting sacked or having to hold the ball rather than go for it to avoid 3 and outs putting our in transition D on the field. I think the Bills should easily pass on Tebow in the 1st (and all the first day and he drops to the 3rd round) as not only do I think this would have us banking on one player who actually quite likely needs to sit and learn the Pro game or practice and develop the Manning like quick release to avoid heavy hits. If we get Tebow great but I really do hope god is on his side as the team he gets behind him is one that it likely is gonna get him hurt trying to lead and learn. 3. If someone offers us two picks and we choose later, we have enough holes on this team that having two first day if not first round choices is a far more reasonable strategy than taking Tebow in the 1st (particularly when some outside observers have him falling to the 3rd. Picking Tebow might work but it easily might not and this is how folks can say picking him would be a mistake. It might be and how can you deny that it MIGHT be.

Again it comes back to a choice of what is the TEAM building strategy that Bills led by Nix should chose. Let's take it as a given that Tebow is the next Peyton Manning in terms of skills (a way huge IF, but putting that debate aside lets presuppose that he is that good). The question for the Bills is how willing are you and how much sense does it make to deal with the couple of seasons it will take until Tebow becomes great that there is a reasonable strategy for building the TEAM around him. I doubt this seriously. Perhaps if I had confidence that Evans will develop into the next Marvin Harrison, and that the Bills will parley the high draft position we will have next year if like Peyton Tebow does zero good for the Ws produced by this team in 2010 (and ironically picking him might well put the team in the same position as Indy after Manning did not improve the team's record his rookie year and I think it is a fair bet that a team led by the rookie Tebow learning the Pro game or having no first round resource next year if Tebow needs to sit next year to learn before taking the field would actually have a better draft choice next year as we likely will be pretty bad in 2010) and our sorry 2010 gives us a pick where we find an Edgerrin James quality player (likely at another position as we are fine at RB for now). My strong sense is that even with a great Tebow this team is pretty bad with the switch to a 3-4 without a McClainesque reinforcement of the LB or the Bulugaesque reinforcement of the OL I do not see a likely successful TEAM building strategy that depends upon building around the QB slot.

He was drafted by another team and NYG got him in a trade.

The problem I have with a Tebow pick is not so much doubts about him but my virtual certainty that the Bills are likely not ready to be a winner even with the best case happening for Tebow. There are essentially two working models for a team drafting a QB who turns this team into an SB worthy team. Manning with Indy and RoboQB with Pitts (there are simply no other examples of a team drafting a QB since Dallas chose Aikman back in the 80s of the team winning the SB- there are tons of other examples of teams acquiring a QB chosen in the 1st with a trade or other resource such as the cases of Elway and the other Manning, but we are talking about drafting a QB who leads the team to the promised land). In both cases, we see a Bills team that has nothing like the winning TEAM around him that allowed RoboQB to be the missing piece for Pitts or the building of an OL which allowed Peyton to pay off for Indy (and it still took getting an Edgerin in the 1st the next year after Peyton improved Indy from 3-13 to 3-13 the next year by them drafting one of the best NFL QBs ever). My question for you is what are the specific reasons why you have such belief faith in the Bills overall that Tebow even if he turns out to be the best that he can be would actually be the best choice for the Bills TEAM building? Perhaps you have such faith in Tebow being a Kelly-like winner that this youngster will lead us to winning ways. It would be nice, but I like others would love to be informed who and how these improved under Tebow's leadership these building blocks will be. My sense is that even before we select the missing piece Tebow that we need to in fact build out the puzzle he fits into. The failings of our young at best (and likely a player a two away) OL is clearly the first missing piece as even if you are correct and Tebow is as talented as many think he is he is gonna have a tough time leading us to victory from his back. The failing which you point out in Tebow is a slow-release and actually the laser release which Payton M brought to the NFL played a significant role in buying Indy the time to build and improve their OL. The OL play was also a critical factor in allowing them to go after James the next year and supplement the best QB ever drafted to make the team an SB winner. Do you have enough belief (based in fact) or even faith (based in hope) that the Bills OL without significant improvement which is not gonna come from drafting a player like Buluga if we take Tebow instead. Add to this that we are switching to a 3-4 and this makes LB an even higher premium for a team that right now starts Ellison and Draft at OLB. We are a couple of players short at LB quality right now and if we got with Tebow and forewent getting a talent like McClain even if Tebow revolutionized the O (doubtful without some OL support) we likely get outscored every game even if Tebow does not get hurt. Do you think this team is stong enough to win right away with Tebow? I do not see how so please tell me.

There are simply straightforward answers to these questions: 1. For the money If Ralph offers most players an even slightly more substantial payment to sign here then many (and in fact most) players will sign here. How much is significant is different for different players, but given the substantial cap room we have getting a top quality FA IF the ownership wants to spend the nickels is a quite doable thing. The rate limiting factor here is whether the owner will part with his nickels. Actually by contract under the CBA the owners must pay a minimum amount of their nickels to the player (in part why I think we are shipping dollars his play does not deserve to Kelsay and also why we were interested in a relatively high cost but little long term risk for the TO contract last season. 2. Because of players wives and their families. Joey Porter actually makes very good sense for us based on player need and quite possibly for him based on $. Yet, we may not sign him because apparently he wants to go west due to family. Too bad for us, but conversely there are the Jim Kellys of the world or the Chris Spielman's whose family roots are closer to the midwest/northeast orientation of Buffalo (Buffalo calls it pop rather than soda so it really is more MW than NE). Particularly for athletes where they or their wives grew up in urban or manufacturing centers (this is the past but it is a past which still has an association to a significant # of players). Buffalo can actually have a similar family draw that sunbelt cities have. One does have to work harder to make this link as many of the college football maufacturing units are like the U in Miami, but this can work for some and is a flat out answer to the question posed of why would ANYONE sign. Many will not but some will. The key trigger again is that owner must be willing to show players the money. 3. Buffalo is actually a pretty good financial gig. Yes, there is more $ to be made in the Big Apple, but this does not mean there is no money to be made here. You see it everyday with athletes collecting nickels to endorse various local products and charitable causes. Yes, there is more $ to be made elsewhere but yes there are substantial dollars to be made here, and again this flat out answers the question of why ANYONE would sign here. Not everyone but you do not need to sign everyone but a series of someones. Add to this that in fact, a player can collect nickels and sign autographs anywhere and Buffalo does have an airport and actually is a short limo ride to a huge amount of population centers. All of these hubs have folks willing to plunk down their $20 bucks to sign autographs. Also add the significantly unexploited market for Bills players if the choose of Toronto and actually this points to the answer also that one of the reasons this market is not exploited is because no player needs to do this to make a $ as there are plenty of viable options for Bills to make money from US markets without having to even mount a big effort. The simple answer to your question is that a player might sign for a gig in Buffalo because if he does he will get a bigger paycheck than he deserves or than he has ever gotten in his life for doing so.

I for one really doubt that we are gonna find a franchise QB with a 3rd round pick. The problem though with folks thinking that this means we must draft a QB with our first round choice is that they ignore the fact that past experience shows it is quite possible to get a QB selected by some other team in the first three rounds through trade or FA. The Bills should absolutely not draft the next Joey Harrington or Akili Smith with their 1st round pick since it is entirely possible to acquire the next Drew Brees, Brett Favre or some other franchise QB and let some other team deal with the losing and growing pains. Particularly when one looks at the long waits and pain that has accompanied the last two 1st round choices who led the teams which drafted them to SB victories, Peyton Manning and RoboQB and the simple fact that even these stud QBs needed TEAMs around them to win it all (and that the last team to draft a QB who took the team which drafted him to an SB win was Dallas taking Aikman in the 80s), the whole strategy of drafting a stud QB with our 1st is simply pretty questionable. Its a QB oriented league for sure, but the simple fact is that as rare as someone wants to claim getting a Brees or drafting a Brady late is to find a winner, these methods are just as likely and in fact until P. Manning finally paid off with a lot of help drafting a QB in the first has simply been a lousy strategy for reaching the ultimate goal in the NFL.

Clearly dev/null cares enough about it that he deems him worthy of posting about. One wonders when folks will get it be they opponents of extremists like Olbermann or Limbaugh that their desire is have there be posts about them regardless of whether the comments are positive or negative. They do not even care if you spell the name correctly if the writer thinks they are important enough to draw insult. The Olbermann worst person in the world awards are for the most part merely advertising for Bill Reilly, Michelle Bachman, et al. Olbermann is the conservative ranters best friend because without him few beyond the narrow segment of the nation's population which listens of Limbaugh or watches Reilly would care about these trees falling in the forest. If you really dislike Olbermann them simply ignore him.

I think your rant misses the point as even if you judge Marv as horrible it really only reflects on the real issue which is the team owner Mr. Ralph. Marv's results simply stand as a double indictment of the team owner as in the end it is the big guy who writes the big checks for failures like Langston Walker and Dockery and who was it who made judgment to hire what you call the worst GM in NFL history in the first place. Actually if one really wants to make an accurate assessment then who deserves the blame for firing GM Polian, for having such a toxic relationship with Butler he left the Bills in completely horrible shape with the timing of his departure or even worse if he tanked his last draft with a far worse choice than Whitner was. Mr. Ralph then added insult to injury by hiring TD and totally failing to manage some clear flaws in his strategy (TD seemed to hire GW with a goal of not getting run out of town by a successful HC he hired as he was with Cowher and then showed the utter toxicity of him managing the GM situation by having to fire TD. You seem to pretty much miss the point by poking the corpse of Marv.

Now let me get this straight, you are declaring the real world events which occurred for a decade an anomaly and events that have occurred for two years the tried and true norm. Yeah right. In fact what I think your recitation of the events tell us is yes this a QB league with QB being the critical position to obtain your franchise player (well duhh everyone knows how important the QB is in this league. However, what your dozen years of events simply tells us is yes get a franchise QB, but that the draft is far from the only way to get a franchise QB or even that drafting a player #1 is far from the only way to get a 1st round QB. I think the facts you lay out pretty clearly point one to look for someone else than drafting a QB with the #9.

Ultimately the real question comes down to the individual and one's assessment of that player. One can easily site multiple examples of individuals like Harrington (a #3 loser at QB) or Tom Brady (a 6th round winner at QB) to provide an example which supports various thoughts. The key to me is that as long as the Bills are looking for one savior (be it a QB or whomever) and not instead working on a strategy that builds a winning TEAM we are likely to be simply depending on luck and chasing rainbows, As far as the QB choice the things which I think are rules we should set for ourselves with our team and this draft are: 1. DO NOT TRADE UP- This team has too many needs for us to even further concentrate our hopes and dreams into one player by giving up the likely first day choice or so needed to move up from #9. Thus team badly needs a franchise QB, AND also will need to get a quality starter (actually two) at OLB since we are switching to the 3-4. The OL also badly will need another talent as we are both young and have holes on the OL. The 3-4 move actually relieves raw player need for # of DLs but the type of bodies and style of play of the current DL with the Schobel wildcard may necessitate getting another talented DL player. The TO situation likely creates a need for a #2 but the cap room to make this an FA choice, At any rate giving away a first day resource and dedicating the 1st rounder to a none trench need would likely have serious ramifications. 2. Trading up to get Bradford or Clausen is a pretty likely need to get them. 3. The large # of needs has to make us pretty risk averse- The only likely reason Bradford might fall to us are questions about his twice injured shoulder. If this is a real risk that scares others quite frankly we should be twice as scared. 4. QBs can hit it as rookies but they generally do not. the thing Sanchez/Flacco/RoboQB share in common is not some QB capability but that each had teams around them which could carry them. This Bills team is not gonna carry their QB (unless it is too the hospital after the young OL gets bulldozed. My GUESS is that if the Bills were to get Clausen or Bradford that it will take a bout a half season until the WGR/Sully whiny fan machine simply runs this youngster out of town for putting up results similar to what the rookie Peyton Manning produced for Indy his rookie year.