GrudginglyPessimistic

Like Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and even Brett Favre and Steve Young, there is still the possibility that Claussen (Tebow and Bradford for that matter) that he may end of being the Pro Bowl level QB who proves capable of leading his team to an SB win, but he turns out not to be able to do this for the team which drafted him. Folks like Peyton Manning and Ben RoboQB were actually the exceptions to the rule that you do not draft a player capable of taking your team to an SB win which had not proven true til these two did it since Dallas has chosen Aikman in the late 80s. The simple fact is for those who are certain Claussen is the real deal that the Bills may have done just the right thing in terms of having Claussen deliver for us by not picking him and seeing if he follows the Drew Brees track to SB glory. This approach is far less risky than one of drafting any QB in the 1st round of the latest draft.

I offer my thanks as well and share a little story that gives the significance of TBD to this individual it is probably just another Board to some and that is fine as though many seem to treat individual views as applying to all things and everyone (particularly stuff on the Internet when the actual take home should be the Internet blogs et al. simply demonstrate that there is a lot more than one truth or one rule for everything important) but this is one person's experience with TBD that for sure speaks to its growing long history. I found my way to TBD in 1997 or 8 or so when I had actually found the Rochester D & C Board in 96 or 7 while still in Buffalo. The D&C Board was a great place for info and what was a building community. However, the D&C being a newspaper and the Internet just being born they had a devotion to free speech that simply proved unworkable in the real world. Their devotion to free speech led to no or spotty at best editing and individuals having different tolerances of what is over the line (something we are experiencing this dichotomy today even here on TSW even today as one person's grievous insult is judged by another person to be legitimate discussion). The end product ended up being the collapse of the D&C Board as folks with simply moderate knowledge of computers judged themselves to be experts and reacted against any editing effort by sending recurring offensive messages that though primitive by today's Internet protection standards quickly destroyed the D&C site for everyone. Into the breach stepped Scott Sarama whose TBD site was governed by the free market and thus he (and eventually the moderators were able like any business let free speech be darned if it got in the way of doing normal activity. The moderators proved to be wonderfully draconian in simply deleting offending posts. Further, Scott and his braintrust were able to demonstrate to the Internet "experts" who had brought down the D&C Board when their sense of free speech was offended by requirements that they play well with others that in fact they were legends in their own minds who could be effectively banned from posting on TSW and who attempts at retaliation could be blocked or shifted aside. TSW and TBD played an important role for me at this time as my lovely spouse needed a major organ transplant and the best place to do this seemed to us to not be in Buffalo but actually off in St. Louis. These were tough times for us where we were away from the support to the family and the City of Good Neighbors for 7 months. There were several moments in the intensive care unit where no one knew what was gonna happen next. Yet, a beacon out there in the wilderness of the midwest was the emergence of TSW out of the ashes of the D& C site. Arguing the status of Doug Flutie was a welcome distraction from waiting to see if the new organ resisted the immune system of it new body. It was a welcome connection to back home as we went back and forth to St. Louis for much of the next couple of years for several week stays as the fine tuned her immune suppression and I knew up to date Bills info as well as folks on the home front who did not patrol the web yet. I have been off and on TSW for the better part of about a dozen years and even though it is not perfect for anyone it has been great to me. So many thanks to Scott and the gang you do us proud! PS- Even though the stats were that 5 years after the transplant only 50% of folks transplanted at the same time as my wife would still be alive she is still kickin after 12 re-birthdays post transplant.

Actually though his name does achieve the minimum grammar standard for spelling, I still think Bryan needs to buy a vowel.

I believe in injury prone. What it means are that some players: A. Have a body type (and/or style of play) that tends to result in them getting a series of injuries which cost them playing time. Rob Johnson in many ways defined this type of player, it seemed that at least a couple of times a season in his several year career here he would get hit and then have to be removed from playing to rehab and extraordinary set of differing injuries from the not atypical concussion to one time he fell on the point of the ball and suffered some type of chest contusion which did not allow him to throw, Rob Johnson is prone to be injured a lot, Brett Favre (to take an extreme to demonstrate the point) is not. He certainly gets hit alot but seemingly with little impact on his game. B. Not only is Favre not prone to harsh injury despite letting it all hang out, but when he does get whacked he seems to have a high pain tolerance which allows him to play on despite the pain. Jim Kelly also demonstrated this ability. Injury prone players tend to need to have a lot of things right and even small injuries which the best QBs play through they get removed from the game. Why do I judge Edwards to be injury prone? To me its an objective standard. When one relies on him and he plays does he get hurt so badly to a number of injuries to different parts of his body that it only seems a matter of time until you need to go to your back-up. The streak within 2 years of play where he went down to a wrist injury (the best QBs seen to have bone and connective tissue structure where they do not get these injuries much), and then missed much needed practice time during pre-season with some sort of generally undescribed injury but it was not the wrist and his head also seemed screwed on straight, and then later that season a hit resulted in a concussion which cost him several games strikes me as injury prone. Maybe Jim Kelly was so dumb that he could continue to play with his brain addled for the most part where a thinking man QB like Stanford grad Edwards needs to be with the program is the difference. Maybe it was Jimbos willingness to take a cortisone shot when he gets rammed mid-playoff game against Pitts while modern rules or Edwards individually requires he be benched. I am not sure about the details but being injury prone is a real thing.

The problem here is that since the FO did not see fit to upgrade the OL with a 1st, 2nd or remotely high pick of talent the likelihood is that our 2010 QB is going to in essence deal with the hand the previous QBs were dealt. It certainly is one thing that makes me happy we did not waste our 1st rd choice on a high-priced QB with a recent history of injury (in essence the whole top tier of 10 QB choices, or demand that this young stud take the time necessary to develop before he is a good enough pro (Tebow) as quite frankly any of these choices would have stood a pretty good chance of getting killed behind our current OL. Where this leaves us this year is to put a pretty high value on durability as a trait we need. I am pretty certain that Brohm has more potential than the other two and that Edwards despite laboring with a minor league O scheme that I think is at the root of his tentative style are both better QBs than Fitzy. However, I think Fitzy may well be the most durable of the three and certainly is the easiest to sacrifice behind a troubled OL this year.

This exactly why in my little football brain I define an injury prone player not as a player who falls victim to the episodic big hit which happens to all players, but in a relatively short period of time (his last consecutive two years of play) the athlete is knocked out of important games due to a series of injuries to different parts of his body, I wish it was simply that TE was concussion prone as if this is the case he plays all the time with the Mark Kelso like helmet and though he looks hilarious he ends up concussion free and still plays ball. It is exactly because one hit concussed him and made him not helpful to the team, and in the same short time period he suffered a wrist injury that cost him PT, and also a third injury to a different part of his body I do not remember cost his valuable practice time in a pre-season of his young career. In a game which is great entertainment (in some part due to the violent hits) but has already proved to need the refs to provide a tutu and inordinate protection to the QB, if the Bills choose to go with Edwards as the starting QB, then it is only prudent that they count on Fitzy or Brohm being up to being a plan B cause they quite likely will need to employ this plan B for more than the Frank Reich role doing spot fill ins with great results in 3 or less regular season games and even a playoff start if necessary. Reich's play was already too much to reasonably hope for and we got it. If we count on TE then we will likely need even more for Fitzy given Edwards history of getting knocked out of several games in a short time in the NFL (on top of a collegiate experience of injury as well).

I say yes and I have an objective standard for making that statement. An injury prone player is one who loses playing time to three different types of injuries in 3 times in 2 seasons. There are injured players like Jim Kelly who had a bursa sac problem which irritated and damaged his play throughout his career. Yet, I would never put the label injury prone on him for two reasons: 1. The bursa sac was a specific problem which needed continually treatment but he was not prone to coming down with a set of other injuries which cost him PT in addition to the recurring bursa problem. 2. He was tough as nails and often even when hurt he would struggle back onto the field to play to his best ability (which often even when hurt was pretty good- sometimes he did more harm than good and a good coach recognizes this and tells his star to sit down and heal). Rob Johnson on the other hand defined what I would call injury prone. One week it was a concussion. A few weeks later it was a fractured collar bone, later on he got sacked and fell onto the point of the ball and got sidelined. He not only got hurt and lost PT but did so with injury after injury to different parts of his body. Trent did not even play a full season last year so its harder to objectively label him injury prone simply because he was not on the field to get injured enough last year for him to earn this booby prize. However, one need only look over his short career to find him getting knocked out his rookie year by a wrist injury, then see him lose valuable PT in training camp to a different injury I cannot remember what as he needed the practice, and then see him lose PT again due to a concussion which cost him several games. Add to this his history in college where an injury cost him PT. Add it up and I think one needs to be really reluctant to trust the starting QB job to him. I think this is too bad because I like him as a player. He is an accurate passer who reads plays incredibly well. He is far more mobile than initially expected and I think a pretty tough guy who has shown a willingness to hang in the pocket despite the pass rush to throw his bullets. I understand why some have dubbed him Trentative, but from what I saw this hesitation came not from any lack of toughness on his part, but actually from first Schoenert and then AVP not being able to design an effective O which used the substantial speed and actually good enough receiving ability of Evans, Owens, and even Parrish (he deserves doubts for his lack of WR production but undeniably has shown he is a superior open field running talent on PR duty. The Bills receiver patterns did not make adequate use of techniques like slant patterns and even getting as close to the legal line as one can setting picks to utilize the great speed we had. Nor did we run and call plays which forced DCs and DBs to make difficult choices about who to Dt on pass plays and what impact double coverage of receivers would have allowing Lynch and/or Jackson to run while. Despite the fact I do not see Edwards as the blame for our tentative nature, I simply do not see how he can be counted upon when he is as objectively injury prone as he is. I think it would be stupid for the team to cut him. I do not have confidence that either Brohm or Fitzy are stud QBs. Edwards with his third round pick deal is sill relatively cheap. It would be dumb not to keep him. Brown is a lock for the PS as it make little sense for any other team to sign him when we cut him prior to going on the PS. I think we go into camp with all three having a legit shot but then the braintrust needs to make decisions based on on the field performance in practice and in the first two pre-season games to then appoint a starter and then a back-up in the Frank Reich role. The disaster QB is just that. I do not care who is in which spot, the best one who steps up in on field competition should win. For us part of that judgment needs to be coming from Edwards (who reportedly has put on some pounds of muscle) getting creamed a few times but actually getting back up.

My understanding (and thank you for siting the NFC rule which actually governs this) is that if the Bills cut Brown he is a free agent who can sign anywhere, but there is a clear question as to why he would want to do this. 1. The Bills braintrust clearly targeted him with a goal of him contributing to this team as soon as possible. They out their resources where their brain was by drafting him rather than trying to sign him as a UDFA. Brown could certainly sign elsewhere, but just because he has this right he would be foolish to exercise it as likely his new team also sends him to their PS and they did not want him enough to draft him as the Bills did. 2. His chances of making the Bills eventually (and possibly sooner rather than later) are quite possible due to our QB situation). Theoretically there is some better chance for him elsewhere but it is very unlikely and if there is simply name them Anywhere he goes he is at best a disaster QB who never plays unless of a unpredictable convergence of injuries. 3. Once he is not picked up as an FA, the Bills sign him to the PS and it becomes even more impossible for another team to sign him as he would guaranteed a roster slot. I see virtually no possibility where Brown ends up anywhere else than our PS.

I know some folks get great pleasure out of arguing for the cut of pro football players who are clearly paid more than they deserve (given that no pro-athlete really deserves any pay for playing a boys game when folks who really deserve any compensation they get like policemen, firemen, policeman and good schoolteachers). However, it seems pretty clear to me that it would be pretty silly for the Bills to cut any of the 3 vet QBs on their roster today as none of them have shown enough production to deserve to be anointed the definite starter. In addition, while all three have serious shortcomings, none of them demands a level of pay which cause any serious constraints on the salary cap for the team, By far the logical course for the team would seem to be: 1. All three players come into the voluntary practices with a real shot at winning the starting job. Levi Brown almost certainly is gonna make the team on the practice squad, which will mean he is gonna be cut and then resigned, but no other team is gonna take Brown from the PS as by rule this team would then have to give him a roster spot. 2. The three players will compete first to win the confidence of the coaching staff in practices when they start in earnest and the three players will be assigned PT in the pre-season games based on how well they perform in practice. 3. Like you, my guess is that Edwards is gonna be the loser in this competition, but not because he is less skilled. I for one was quite impressed with Edwards early play in his career as he demonstrated to me he is a very accurate passer, he runs far better than I thought he would, and he demonstrated to me he is a gutsy player who is willing to stand in there in the face of a rush and throw the ball at the last minute before he gets creamed. However, the Bills O and play design and calling were so bad that: A. The pass routes were not well designed making use of slants and as close to illegal picks as we got away with to help the speedy WRs get separation, B. The overall plays were also not well-designed such that we played off the tremendous outside speed threat offered by Evans, the big play threat offered by TO, the speed and open field running ability demonstrated on PRs by Parrish, and the great potential as receivers demonstrated in college by both Lynch and Jackson as a pro. I can see why you have labeled Edwards as Trentative as he simply proved not to be effective once other teams had enough tape to catch on to the Bills likely play calls and Edwards strengths and weaknesses. However, he did experience an impressive amount of success early on in each season he player because even if you want to bad mouth my sense is he is actually a pretty good player. However, he is not good enough that he can be productive without at least adequate play design and good play calls. The Bills fired Schoenert and newby AVP showed occasional but inconsistent flashes of adequacy. Even worse for TE in the long run is that having lost PT 3 times to differing injuries in in 2 straight years he meets my objective criteria of being injury prone and one would be foolish to count on him starting without a clear cut plan B, I do not have enough confidence in either Fitzy or Brohm that I am quite happy to cut a vet who has proven he can win several games at QB in the NFL. Are you so enthused with either Fitzy or Brohm that you are willing to declare one of them the next Jim Kelly and all you need is a plan B that can credibly lead the team for 3 games as Frank Reich did. I keep Edwards on this team rather than cut him not because I believe in him (I do not). I keep him because I simply do not believe in Fitzy or Brohm yet either. His third rounder salary rate is small as far as I think the Bills are concerned so you keep him as well. Marv was right that if a team has two starters it has no starter at QB. However, this team pretty clearly has no starter at QB because it has no starter. i doubt Edwards is the answer, but I am more than willing to let this be decided on the field of play or by professional watching practice than by some willy nilly declaration by the media (Sully and WGR have done Coach Dickerson like damage to this team because they seem to listen to them) or even us wild-eyed fans on 2BD.

is that everyone who says that the Bills MUST take the best QB they can draft because we need a franchise QB are simply wrong when they claim that drafting is the only way to get our franchise QB. First, it depends on what you mean by a "franchise" QB as clearly you cannot define this as a QB capable of leading your team to an SB win. The simple facts are that tons of QBs acquired from alternatives Wal-mart boxboy Kurt Warner to twice waived Brad Johnson are QBs capable of QBing your team to an SB win. Further, until stellar QBs such as Peyton Manning and phenoms such as RoboQB finally led their teams to SB wins you had to go back to the Boys picking Aikman in the 80s to find a QB a team picked in the 1st to find one who led his team to an SB win. If part of being a franchise QB is winning the SB there are simply way to many examples of teams doing this with players whom they did not draft in the 1st and actually relatively few examples of QBs drafted in the 1st who led the team which picked him to SB wins. Even with this simple statement of reality, one then has the not simple at all task winning the bet that your first round pick at QB is not a stone cold bust as most of these picks will be. Again the simple reality is that stud QBs from Drew Brees to Brett Favre are available in the marketplace with some frequency and this appears to be increasing with vet QBs like McNabb and apparently RoboQB available on the market this year. Picking a Clausen or a Tebow (particularly when you have clear needs in the trenches) is a risky proposition at best and is even more risky this year given that all the QB options have significant questions about them (such as injuries which cost them PT in each case before you even get to skill issues. Given that picking this player means he will be not only learning to be a pro but doing this with a team which is not able to supplement their protection or the D side with a first round talent and picking a B in the first just seems like a bad idea.

Rather than national advertising which makes little difference to any team (the key questions for any advertising is what are you selling to which potential buyer and these 10 minutes of coverage do not provide an answer to either of these questions so there is no way to consider this "coverage" to be anything which can be accurately called advertising) it strikes me that the primary benefit of the 10 minutes is seeing if any unexpected tremendous offers come over the transom. My sense of the 10 minutes is that every NFL team has every other teams phone number to call to discuss a potential deal. A team goes on the clock and in the first minute or two max the phone rings and they get 1 or more offers which they immediately turn down as not being enough and likely they state the outrageous offer that would make them deal. They then wait at least two minutes for a counter offer. If the offers are remotely serious you then have another 3-5 minutes of offer/counter offer. Figure that if more than one team is interested you are doing this same dance simultaneously with 2 or more teams. Even more complex all this is happening with some teams actually forcing the offerer to wait while they do nothing in a simple attempt to panic the suitor into going higher with their offer. Quite frankly its no wonder that this takes a full ten minutes per pick in the 1st round as much of this time is spent trying to get the best offer possible for your choice and also trying to assess each opponents developing draft strategy.

Not sure about what. I am certain beyond any reasonable doubt that a good FO is at least allowing false impressions to be taken as fact and is simply flat out lying and mostly is trying not to get caught too red-handed simply lying to reporters. You do regular reporting so what do you think is the nature of the relationship between the reporter and the FO. As a reader I do not accept any reporting as gospel and anything I read of import it is simply prudent to question its validity. My sense is that a good reporter is about being writing an article which has implicit in conveying he knowledge that most of what they have been told is not true and that they attribute the things which they believe are true to me the reader with some real information as to who made the statement on the record or if the source is not willing to stand publicly by their quote why this secret should be believed. If no knowledgble source will stand by the quote with their name it should be taken by the reader with at least a grain of salt and most likely a boulder of salt.

The most amusing thing to me was that it is actual Schobel who seems to be writing a playbook that satisfies his desires and the Bills have demonstrated that they seem quite willing to dance to whatever tune Schobel is playing. Schobel started out demonstrating great determination and really defined the Bills style of post Bruce DEs of high motor white guys without the can't be stopped first move but the grit to keep trying until they got results (often a sack in Schobel's case and often just a pressure in Kelsay's case). Schobel actually was pretty weak at the point of attack in his first couple of years Interestingly he solved this problem not through the traditional solution of adding some more weight to make him tougher to move (its good when folks do this the hard way by adding muscle and too often they add weight the easy way by adding fat) Schobel however did it his way by actually losing weight as he added muscle and improved his technique. The result was him putting up sack numbers which helped him win the popularity contest of Pro Bowl voting. He also showed great athleticism in taking to the Jerry Gray version of the zone blitz and not only proved capable of doing short zone pass coverage but was even agile enough to drop back into the medium zone. The funny case of him writing the book though was when the Bills gave Kelsay a raise he had done little on the field to deserve, Schobel actually sat out a "voluntary" workout or two even though he had just signed an extension with a significant raise and made noises about holding out. The Bills caved and gave Schobel the huge extension he would be walking away from now. Jason Peters actually stole a page from the Schobel book (as you mention Schobel following the Favre model) and sat out the voluntary practices after his Pro Bowl nod. Who knows why the Bills FO reacted differently but rather than caving as they did with Schobel, the Bills would not deal and Peters escalated by sitting out mandatory pre-season. As it turned out, Peters made the right move for him contractually as he managed to win the Pro Bowl popularity contest again and he was in the drivers' seat. Ultimately the Bills FO caved to Peters needs as yes they did not sign him a big contract but yes they gave him a huge contract by caving and shopping him to the Iggles who gave him exactly the huge deal he wanted. Schobel set the precedent for this though by throwing a little hissy fit when the Bills FO gave Kelsay more than he deserved and Schobel demonstrated by sitting out voluntary practuce that the Bills FO would cave and give a player what he demanded one way or the other.

Do you see the decision about a Schobel retirement having anywhere near the impact on ticket sales, media chatter, or national press attention that the TO signing had? The impact and decisions regarding TO if anything strike me as proof that the Bills need worry little about the press impact of a Schobel retirement. Sure whether Schobel retires or not is a factor that the Bills are thinking about but overall this strikes me as such a blip on the Bills road to the future its hard for me to see this as much of a point of strategic consideration for the FO and most likely has its primary value to the Bills in terms of tipping off or not tipping off their partner/opponent teams in the rest of the league.

I do not think the motivation for the Bills is the impact of the headlines on the Bills fans (the last decade makes it pretty clear to most fans that Schobel's performance is not a make or break issue for the Bills ultimate W/L performance and not only do I think most fans do not care whether he retires or not, the bottomline is that clearly Mr. Ralph does not care a great deal about what the fans might think). My guess is that the Bills braintrust and Schobel already know whether he is gonna retire or not (probably retire is my guess) but either way, the ? about the Bills DE and/or OLB need strengthen the Nix/Gailey's hand when it comes to opponents trying to figure out the Bills likely draft needs or trade negotiation wants. Thinking that the boys in charge of the Bills are primarily motivated by the media or fan reaction seems a bit naive to me. It is a factor but seems to be a pretty small one.

Npw let me get this straight you are arguing that Claussen's history is that because he played so well at QB he does not deserve any faulting over the team losing because even a stud QB cannot be expected to win when the D sucks, From this argument you say we should take Claussen because the Bills the Bills will win more with his studly QB play? However, I do not see how if your arguments are true that the Bills will win more if our D like Claussen's at ND sucks. Do you believe that the Bills D switching to a 3-4 which classically has a big guy at NT stuff the running game is going to be competitive with lighter weight penetrating Stroud or Williams manning the NT spot, The logical outcome of your argument is the Bills should run and not stop to pick the most run eating NT they can find with their first pick because even with this pick they will still need to have a credible back-up or one injury to this starting NT and our D gets shredded (and no matter how well Claussen performs with our O he cannot be expected to lead his team to victory. If you do not see the Bills needing big time help this year then how long are you willing to wait before we make our 402 into a winner. Add to this once you introduce the time element that Claussen is going to be protected by an OL which likely needs two starters and its hard to see why you desperately don't want the Bills to trade and get some more picks.

You are probably right that Clausen is the best QB in this class. You are also probably right that all the QBs in this draft class have significant injury history. However, what this all adds up to is that drafting a franchise QB is a difficult thing to do even without the injury history of this class and as far as this group of QBs there is a strong case to be made for passing on them all. When you factor in the three points that virtually agree on: 1. This Bills team has a ton of needs so taking the second (or even the third best) LT likely gives you more bang for the buck than the second or third best QB 2. One of our areas of great deficit is on the OL which will play a central role in protecting this young QB and giving him the needed time to develop. 3. The switch to the 3-4 puts a premium on a wide body DT and we not only need a starter at this position but a back-up. all put a very heavy premium on using the #9 on the best available LT or if a run goes on that position likely leaving the best available NT as primary needs for this team to merely be adequate much less protect the young QB so he can in fact survive to become a vet or simply not only put a ton of pressure on him to win but do this having him face well rested Ds as our own D is not gonna be reasonable at all in stopping the run. Its not just a worry about Claussen no matter how good he was being incapable of leading ND to Os or at least the postseason but the worry that this Bills team is not talented enough to be reasonable teammates for a learning young QB. Why do you have such faith in this Bills team which is 0 for the decade in playoff appearances that they are going to be near adequate enough for any young learning QB to put them over top without reinforcing the trenches.

I agree that a stud QB (and to some extent a D captain who refuses to lose) can actually have an impact on the other unit though he is not on the field. This comes in tangible ways in that a QB that routinely produces 3 and outs is gonna exhaust his defensive team because they are in for more plays. It also comes in intangible ways in that we have all seen QBs who when given any time at all on the clock prove able to lead their team back for the winning or game tying score. His D unit knows this and rather than essentially giving up if they get more than a TD down at any point in the 4th quarter the D does everything they can to keep the game close knowing that all they need to do is give Favre, Manning, (or even Doug Flutie as much as some folks hate him he did just win a lot. To some extent this is why I think that folks are simply overlooking some things when they ask what stats show a fault with Claussen methinks one need only look at NDs W/L last year to know that yes Claussen threw well but the team Weis did the planning for and he was the primary on field leader simply failed badly. Was Claussen at fault? No. He clearly ran an effective O. However though he cannot be reasonably blamed for losing I think he can be blamed for not winning. Unfortunately the situation the Bills find themselves (and us) in is that we need a QB that is going to need some serious reinforcements or he will have to carry the team and protect himself as well. I simply see no indications that Claussen is going to be able to do this. As in college even if he plays well he never showed he has the ability to inspire or even force his teammates to be even adequate. In fact since he unfortunately showed he can be hobbled by the big hit unlike the best of QBs who seem to be immune to big hits or who get rid of the ball all the time so the hits are avoided taking Claussen while the OL is questionable or the DL seems to have an even bigger need for a wide body (or two) with the switch to the 3-4 depending on a rookie to go it alone without help sounds pretty risky. If we end up with Claussen I feel like it will have happened due to bad luck because there was a rush on LTs and thus we settled for Claussen. I will be bummed but hope the best though all logical reasoning says expect the worse if this is the choice.

Yes the Pro Bowl in many ways is a popularity contest. However one method for being popular is to be a very good player. Outside of making arguing simpler (with the cost of it being the arguments end up lacking a lot of accuracy) there is no good reason to assume the Pro Bowl is either completely irrelevant as you claim or a totally accurate determinant of who is good. Neither is true. With Pro Bowl voting consisting of 1/3 player opinion, 1/3 coach opinion and 1/3 fan opinion the Pro Bowl results do have significant failures in terms of identifying great players, but in general I think the results easily identify players as being in the top half of the league at their positions and actually does identify the likely best players at their positions in many cases. Is a Pro Bowl berth a 100% indicator of greatness ? No no way. However, is it completely irrelevant. No way to that thought as well. Its like the NFL QB rating. Is it a great or even very good rating of QB performance? No. However is it the best numeric summation of the position we have and thus can be dismissed but not without a reason. Yep. A Pro Bowl nod can be easily dismissed for a reasonable reason but it is simply not true to claim it is 100% irrelevant to a thinking fan.

The only thing we know for sure about teams needs is that folks are least keeping them secret as best they can or are simply flat out lying. My sense is that if the Bills are smart they are simply blowing smoke in showing a desire to draft a QB in the first round in order to fool opponents as to their likely draft needs and to increase their leverage in trade talks. The draft is a good place to find a QB if he is the missing part that puts your team into the playoffs or to make a credible SB run. It however, is a pretty dicey strategy to find a franchise player at QB who is either gonna lead your bad team to victory with significant gaps making your team an offensive threat or on the D keeping this QB off the field as the other team marches up and down the field holding the ball. Even worse, if this QB needs the development time that almost all amateur athletes (particular QBs) need, his development is likely to be quite questionable without the talent for him to exploit or to protect him. If Nix is on his game he has effectively fooled the Kipers and other pundits of the NFL gawker world to judge that the Bills are going to follow the difficult course of trying to draft their franchise QB in the 1st round.

I think the legit reason is that the Bills have produced such a bad record over the last decade that what they require is to either rebuild the team from the trenches out OR to get a team leader at QB who basically forces the team to win by virtually through force of will refuses to lose. Personally, I think that the latter view simply is not gonna happen (a QB can make the difference as the add-on to a quality team as RoboQB did with Pitts but even the best QB in the business Peyton Manning led Indy to the exact same record after his rookie year when asked to do it himself and only the addition of a number of factors proved to ultimately be enough). As far as Claussen himself, yes he is a very good QB but he simply proved flat-out with the ND record last year that he is not capable of forcing a team he is leading to refuse to lose. Its a high risk silly strategy the Bills would be pursuing to bank on Clausen with out first round help in the trenches being the choice to make this team a winner (and potentially for him to even survive as he suffered a serious injury as he finished college) or hinder his needed development if he is chosen as our next savior. Perhaps if Claussen had Tebow's proven ability to elevate his team seemingly through force of will or Tebow had Claussen's demonstrated quick release either MIGHT be a good choice at #9, but neither do and it seems as sure as the crapshoot the draft is that either choice at #9 would be fatal to the Bills for years.

Rather than jumping ahead of us to take Clausen my sense is that the strategy for this team to get better fastest is for them to trade the #9 pick to a team which wants Claussen in exchange for their 1st rounder and a package of early picks to make this deal equitable on the value chart. The Bills do need a good QB to be a good team but they also need not only the traditional wide body at NT but a back-up there to boot. They need a starter at WR and likely two starter quality OL players to be adequate on OL. They could desperately use another early pick or two to fill these essential non-QB needs. If all they end up with is Claussen and do not fill one of their essential needs with a 1st because they spent it on Claussen simply figure on 2010 being a wasted year of play as the Bills QB gets a year of extended training camp he needs.

I agree that Tebow might very well be a great player (but then maybe not so any even half intelligent person would agree there is some risk. Though there is no need to argue with me that Tebow will be great, do you and Darth have enough faith in how good this Bills team is that they will be able to keep Tebow alive long enough for him to do his magic and likely for him to have the time to develop a quick enough release (that even he admits he needs to work on) and that allowed Peyton Manning to not be able to help Indy at all elevate their record his rookie year and develop into the best QB in the league while Indy got its act together. I hope that you are completely right that the Bills would possibly take Tebow at 9 to avoid Jax taking him at 10 as this virtually guarantees that Jax would switch slots with us and give us a couple of early picks to make the draft value right (and then some because FL will accepts taking a bath to get Tebow. I am not arguing that Tebow will be bad (though there is that risk that must at least be acknowledged by Tebow advocates, but what I am arguing is that the Bills are not good enough right now to win even with Tebpw magic. Do you and DI not agree and if not why do you think the Bills are so good they can win.

No way on the pick Claussen immediately as the Bills would downright foolish not to wait for some fool team to offer them value in a trade well above what the 9th is worth on most conversion charts. The Bills would be foolish not to take 2 early picks in exchange for Claussen if some team is foolish enough to give up two likely starters for the crapshoot that any 1s round QB pick would be.

We all know we want/need a franchise QB. The problem is that 1) there is significant doubt that there is a franchise QB to be had in this draft, and 2) even if there is one (Bradford most likely) he probably does not develop well if taking him comes with the downside that the OL in front of him without the reinforcement of a 1st round pick (probably Buluga) likely hinders his development into a franchise QB. The 1st round QB choices simply all have significant enough downsides individually that there is a significant risk they do nothing for the Bills in the long-term (Bradford- looks great but coming off of two shoulder injuries that cost him PT and having had the luxury of a great OL in college, Claussen- also coming back from significant injury which hurt his play and as unfortunately was not able to elevate ND above losing status as a leader, Tebow- will likely need a year or two of development before he develops a pro speed release. In fact, Tebow is likely not the only one of these 3 who may well provide no first year benefit to the Bills. The second factor of this Bills team simply not being very good and no place to support a rookie (like Pitts where RoboQB was the missing element or E. Manning was the one element away for NYG). The Bills are simply not one player away from winning it all and will be fortunate to be one player away from adequacy. You certainly want/need a franchise QB but can you really make a case that any of three players is that franchise QB for the Bills> I don't think so.