BADOLBILZ
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Posts posted by BADOLBILZ
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1 minute ago, Gregg said:
When you play 162 there will be games when it doesn't go your way obviously. There will times when they have losing streaks. But overall, this team looks good although it's still very early in the season.
Their approach at the plate is a lot better and they have some lefty bats now..........and Soto has been great. But he was great with the Padres too and it didn't make this kind of difference. The key component, IMO, is still Matt Blake the pitching coach. How they get top of the league ERA production from a bullpen full of castoffs every year is impressive. The organization as a whole gets great pitching results despite never drafting high. He has really saved Hal Steinbrenner's bacon. That team last year should have been like 72-90 as bad as they were offensively and with the pitching injuries. Would not be surprised if Blake gets a managers job next year just so that the organization that gets him can get his eye for pitching.
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3 hours ago, Gregg said:
Whose 10-2 with the best record in baseball. Let's Go Yankees.
Yeah won a game last night where they had A LOT of bad ball luck.
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18 hours ago, dave mcbride said:
29” arms — very short for nfl receivers. Diggs is 31.25.
Yeah I think Joe Marino listed off the most successful WR to ever measure under 30" arm length and the top of the list was Hunter Renfrow. I mean, Shakir finding sustained success would be a real outlier........but we saw the path to it last year.........as a RAC guy against deep set secondaries.........so it seems likely now, even. Renfrow had 3 good seasons(one really outstanding one) and fell off a cliff. I wouldn't be surprised if Shakir ended up the GOAT of T-Rex armed WR's. He is a bigger/better athlete. And the list of successful WR's with 30" arms isn't a lot longer, fwiw. Arm length has proven to be very important.
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5 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:
This Ricky Pearsall seems to be very underrated. 4.41 speed, ok size, great route runner, really good hands, high points the ball and has a bunch of savvy in his game. He’s a little older like Leggette. He had a really good senior bowl week. Then he goes to the combine and jumps out of the gym and runs a crazy 3 cone time. I know he is probably a victim of the depth of this class, but the dude can play and a lot of his game translates to the NFL game. He is also a good fit here. He runs a ton of option routes but he also eats in that intermediate area of the field that Josh loves to attack. A couple of comps I have seen are Christian Kirk and Julian Edelman…I can see it. I think he’s mostly a slot guy who can play outside but isn’t that traditional big X everyone is clamoring for. I like this player and I think he is definitely underrated.
I'm not high on that skillset for the Bills in round 2 because they have Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel who are all best used inside as well........but being that he will be a 24 year old rookie it wouldn't shock me if he fell into round 4. At which point he is great value with a high floor. Shakir had some nice numbers and tape and he fell, so I could see Pearsall being that guy in this draft. I'm not a big Ladd McConkey guy either, which I know is blasphemous because he is the route-God to people in this draft. I'm looking more for players with the physicality to excel in the playoffs.
2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:Yep. I have a 4th on him. I like him as a LG.
Yeah it's such a good draft for OL talent. If the Bills don't get a couple with those 10 picks I will be disappointed. The iron is hot at WR/OL/CB and if you don't take them now you can end up reaching for them in subsequent drafts.
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7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I get where you are coming from, but Owens and Moss don't qualify for what I am saying. Eagles didn't trade a bounty for TO, nor did the Patriots to get Moss who only spent a 4th round pick. And of course, they never won a Super Bowl either. So not that your points aren't valid, I think maybe you misunderstood the basis of my point of when teams give up a ton of draft capital to go get a WR that then diminishes their ability to continue to build the rest of the team. For example, anytime someone can go get a "Randy Moss" player for a 4th round pick and has the cap room to make it work, its a no brainer. But how often does a trade up to draft Julio Jones or big trade for a Tyreek Hill result in a Super Bowl? Answer is quite frankly never has.
The reason I bring this up is we have to weigh the cost vs the return. Is it really necessary to go get a top 15 WR in the draft and give up 2-4 premium picks to do so? Well, only one team in the last 20 years even had a top 15 drafted WR1 in Mike Evans despite there being some great WR drafts over that span with some great WR's to come out of them early in those drafts.
Consider the year we got Diggs. That draft, everyone here wanted us to use trade the farm to move up to get one of Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb because everyone knew none would make it to us, including Beane. Well...lets see how that worked out:
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Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years.
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What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3:
- Ruggs and Jeudy - Ruggs is in Jail and Jeudy sucks compared to his hype and has been a mediocre WR.
- Lamb - Was being questioned if he was truly a WR1 until finally this year, his 4th season. Dallas has won even less than we have and they had multiple seasons with Cooper and Lamb.
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What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3:
- Best WR's in the draft ended up being people on the board at our original pick in Jefferson and Higgins. Lamb finally entered the debate now with Higgins on who is better, but up until this season it was Jefferson and Higgins.
Trading up in that draft would have been a huge mistake and not returned the value of Diggs. Trading for Diggs worked out to help us win more games, but ultimately it delivered 4 disappointing playoff exits, none of which was because of our WR group.
- We lost in 2020 because we were the worse team
- 2021 we lost because of our defense
- 2022 we lost in the trenches and not being able to run the ball in bad weather
- 2023 we lost because he had no linebackers and couldn't even get Mahomes jersey dirty.
The most correct thing to do was not trade for Diggs and stay put and take Jefferson. Doesn't mean the Diggs trade was bad or wrong, but not giving up draft capital and taking Jefferson on a rookie contract was more correct. But, again, Diggs trade makes more sense as no one knows how those rookies will turn out until they hit the field.
Look around at other big moves to get a WR...Even a lesser cost of Hopkins to AZ when he was arguably the best WR in the NFL and at least top 3, did very little for them although they only gave a 2nd. Clevelands big trade for OBJ didn't do much either, neither did Antonio Brown to the Raiders, or Amari Cooper also in Cle. I mean the examples can keep going on, I am just trying to name more of the most recent ones.
To be 100% clear, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do. I would love to get one of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or Thomas...I just don't believe we should gut a lot of premium draft capital to do so because this team needs more than just one of them to get over the hump, its proven that already the last 4 years. And when you factor in how great this draft is, historically great, maybe the best of all time in talent and depth...it gets even more illogical to gut our draft capital on a team who needs to keep restocking young talent given for cap management.
IMHO next years first should be really near our max, and only because we have two 2nd's next year now, so moving the first hurts less. But even so...imagine in 2025 having our first and then probably an early 2nd (Vikings) and of course our 2nd all next year for this roster, we could really load some talent up on this team. That could be what puts us over the top even. And we still would have added some exciting WR(s) in this draft too.
For the record...if on draft day I see we make some big expensive move to get someone like Nabers, I won't be mad, adding Nabers would be incredibly exciting. I will however be concerned that the cost may outweigh the reward because we will need to keep building through the draft to find playmakers and elite talent elsewhere on the roster because we won't have cap room to sign them in FA.
Yeah, I think the sample size is just too small on WR trade-ups by contenders. And also, since the NFL is QB driven there really isn't ANY particular position other than QB that provides big dividends to trade up for. And then there is the argument that tanking for the best QB has resulted in only 1 SB win for THAT team since Peyton Manning went #1 overall in 1998. I think you still want the highest ranked QB despite that, right?
The only trade that matches the criteria of a big draft trade up by a contender was Julio Jones. And to put it in perspective, the Bills didn't draft anyone in round 1 who was AS GOOD as Julio Jones between time they selected Bruce Smith until they selected Josh Allen. Over 30 years. So Julio was an absolute grand slam of a pick for Atlanta.
Cleveland whiffed on all 5 picks they received in that trade...........but the odds of anyone getting more value than Julio Jones out of those picks they dealt to Cleveland is really low. Less than 50% of 1st rounders even get their 5th year option picked up and closer to only 30% become "solid" NFL starters (per PFF).
But even more sobering than those numbers, IMO, was the fact that the Bills missed the playoffs for 17 straight years.........and when they broke that drought there wasn't a Bills 1st or 2nd rounder from ANY of prior 16 years of Bills drafts on the field that day in Jacksonville. Just that same seasons picks.
The lesson being that we often over-value 1st round picks by presuming them to become better, more impactful players than they usually are. They are lottery tickets to be used to get stud players at premium positions. Which kinda' supports trading up, even if it feels rich, if you have HOF type conviction on that player.
Personally, I like the trade-back idea "on paper" but it's not like that idea always works either. You don't see trades like the Herschell Walker deal where the returns are so outlandish that it's hard to not win those trades.
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Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years.
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36 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:
Thanks for the reply. Good info. Not sure if you realized but you supported my comment. Rashee Rice was taken in the second round, pick 55 overall. KC in no way expected him to be, as you say< a WR1. But he did have a good season in 2023 because of Mahomes and a good OC Scheme. I agree with you in that he is good.
My overall point is we don't need to move up in the draft for a WR at all. In fact, I believe the Bills will move up, if at all, for Latu if he falls. Otherwise, we stand at 28 and take BPA. Our WR
"WR1" will come in the form of an additional rookie and our current group ALL performing as a great unit. If our D can be added to we can win more games especially in the playoffs.
KC drafted Rice with the hope that he'd be a WR1. You don't draft receivers in the first or second round to be role players unless they project to be extraordinary in a single, important aspect. Like as a deep threat. Rice was a rounded skillset type. The reason you draft any player in round one instead of subsequent rounds is because the hit rate is going to be higher with players deemed good enough to select in round 1. That's the way it works. The Chiefs took 3 swipes with day 2 picks and appear to have only hit on one(so far).
The point is, if KC is your model you need an elite target(Kelce) and a WR1(Rice). The Bills have neither, at this point. With Diggs falling off last season the disparity in receiver quality was quite clear in the playoff matchup. The Chiefs offense was explosive and the Bills offense had to rely on executing smaller plays and burning clock. The Bills are in need of a talent infusion at WR. I am not against taking a great pass rusher if one were there but I am not hoping the Bills make a significant trade up at all, myself. They need multiple receivers and should try to come out of this draft with players from the other strong positions.......OL and CB.
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2 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
Still waiting on those contract deets and the base salary!
Yeah, nothing yet.
When I heard he was signed I figured it was a total in-case-of-emergency signing and he would probably retire in TC when it was clear he was totally washed or there was a better young player ahead of him. Like Brandon Shell did.
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3 hours ago, Gregg said:
Nestor with 8 shutout innings. Volpe and Soto with 3 run HR's. 9-2 record. So far so good. Long season and there will be bumps along the way, but I am loving this start.
9-2 is tied with their best start ever. The pitching staff is a bit of a house of cards.........but most teams' are........so those 8 innings from the Hialeah Hedgehog were big.
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12 hours ago, DrPJax said:
Will always love the BILLS , esp the 90’s teams and their greatness, but imho the final 4 is more pure athletic joy to watch over the much hyped , but often predictable, often less competitive Sb!
For one thing tonight’s national anthem was performed beautifully , flawlessly , with no improvised runs or interpretation. Done by a Native American who moved the crowd to chant USA, USA with no ongoing war , just moved by her performance which was fabulous and has replaced Whitney’s rendition imo ,{albeit it was still supporting the USA at a time of war}. Just my opinion , but thats how you show pride in your country with no political agenda. If that didn’t move you , maybe you are either very jaded or over medicated.
The quality of competition in march madness has been really good, and the meaning to each player , some of whom will never become pros , leads to the exhibition of passion pro sports fails to reach at this point. Now foes are just buddies, who share commercials, may even be teammates the next season, plus they are all highly paid and they know there is always next year because there is no eligibility limit other than your teams needs / cap limits. However, there are 31 other chances to catch on. The NFL is a mans sport , and nothing can match the youthful exuberance that we all Lose with time and experience. I loved the nfl/bills so much in my 20’s that iwent to two superbowls. Great experiences i was so happy to attend; yet now it is such a corporate , highly over priced event that there is no longer any amount of money you could pay me to be treated as nothing more than a commodity by a multibillion dollar business who still begs for taxpayors monies while holding communities hostage threatening to move their franchises despite years of faithful support.
That leads to the actual players we are supposed to be fans of, enjoy their unique talents. Some live up to that lofty expectation and i salute those who somehow retain their humility. But then we are exposed to many criminals, many with children by several “baby-mommas” as if some badge of honor, and of course , the narcissists who speak about teamwork but whose actions prove they are only about their personal gains and are really not about anything but their “ bag”. It’s just not as prevalent in college and they still play for each other. enjoying possibly their only chance to win a championship. It’s a business still, but not as in your face as ‘THE SHIELD” is.
Also , basketball is played much the same as it was in the 70’s , other than held balls and the 3 point line. Try and keep up with pro football , and the myriad of changes makes it hard to grasp each year It’s still way too often decided by too many part time refs and waiting literally on minutes for replay to still come back with not enough evidence or even frankly still wrong. Basketball doesn’t suffer from all the delays between plays , reviews, innumerable commercials . Rare doe it have Overhyped ,overextended halftimes. It’s still a faster paced game.
And never tell me about so called football experts, its plethora of podcasters that talk like they know more than regular fans, or all the draftniks who spend hours evaluation tons of mock drafts.. they are rarely even close and do all that wasted “film time” , as only 4-5 0f drafted players from each time will even see plating time. Yeah tell me experts have validity when almost 0 0f them predicted Diggs being traded. Actually criticizing any other opinion sarcastically “because there was no way with that cap hit”! It’s just proof , experts are no more than guessing amateurs and spending money on their “opinions” is just akin to scams. If you can’t predict a major trade like Diggs , how far off must your other advice be ?
But my main point still comes down to which event do you enjoy more? The SB , with its multimillion dollar athletes who will do the same all over again next year , with little on the line for them personally as most have already made their fortunes , or the excitement of march madness who didn’t have 2 anthems sung to please its corporate crowd., and is still the same sport we basically all have played. I love the BILLS , but i really don’t care about the offseason that much. Because time after time , the season isn’t won until it actually counts. The SB is good, most time anti climatic, but march madness and the final 4 is still ascending. Give me a BILLS win and i might feel different,,,,but 55 years is a lot to ask! Still, a great anthem tonight! Great game tonight!
Saying basketball is played much like it was in the 1970's except for the 3 point line is like saying football is the same except it's not nearly as violent. It's a different, more skilled game.
I only really pay attention to the tournament now if my team is in contention for the final 4. The broad interest in the NCAA tournament is even more about gambling than the NFL is. By a lot, IMO. The SB is the SB whether you have a bet on it or not.
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54 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win.
Where are the examples of teams that were seen as on the cusp that made a big move for a WR that failed?
Bills fans point to the Sammy Watkins trade but that team hadn't made the playoffs in like 14 years and didn't have a QB.
The Julio Jones trade ultimately didn't yield a SB WIN.........but he was great and they reached a SB that they probably don't otherwise.
Same with the Eagles and TO..........he elevated their game offensively and they got to a SB with him.
There just aren't many examples that match the criteria one way or another so it seems like a throwaway kinda' post to hang a hat on.
Randy Moss didn't cost much but he helped turn the Patriots from a defense-first team into the top offense in NFL history and got to a SB. OBJ to the same extent did have a huge impact on the Rams winning a SB. Moves for WR's have often paid dividends, in general.
I don't have any desire for the Bills to trade up but the idea that it's a proven-bad formula isn't supported.
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1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:
The OP is bang on! We don't need elite WR's. We actually have a bunch of dudes that can catch the ball: Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel and Knox to name a few.
You mention KC has Toney/Moore/Rice. They are NOT elite WR's. Toney is quite low-end actually.
Bills are not moving up to get a WR. If anything, we move up for Latu!
Rashee Rice is actually a WR1. Mahomes had a 123.7 passer rating when targeting him(and it was 102 targets, not a small sample size like Khalil Shakir). He out-produced the 1st rounders Jordan Addison and Zay Jones and then was huge for them in the playoffs. His statistical projections for this year based on the sites I have seen predict he will produce around 95-100 catches and 1100-1200 yards 7-9 TD's most likely. Not All Pro so not "elite" but definitely excellent WR1 production. The Bills don't have anyone projecting anywhere close to that.
But Rice doesn't have to be "elite". They already have Travis Kelce, the elite of the elite at TE in the NFL. I like Dalton Kincaid but unless you presume that he is going to now match Kelce as the top receiving TE then the Bills WR corps doesn't match up to KC's 1-2 punch in either spot.
I mentioned all the capital KC invested in WR because they didn't intentionally allow themselves to get worse at WR. @Zerovoltz suggestion that the Chiefs did so intentionally was preposterous. They expected to get MUCH better results from Moore and Toney. They hit a HR with their 3rd try in Rice.........getting a guy who produced at such a high rate as a rookie and excelled in the postseason.
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49 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:
Now that Diggs has been traded and it's come to light there has been ongoing problems in the Diggs/Allen relationship.....I STAND BY THIS. Allen is going to have a great year, and the Bills are going to be FINE. Allen is now free to run the offense without having in the back of his mind that he has to get one of the guys a number of targets. The ball can and will go to the optimal reciever on a given play.
Yep and using back-to-back 1st round picks on receiving targets will help make your "worse receivers" dream come true!
Just like the Chiefs throwing 3 day 2 picks (Toney/Moore/Rice) at the WR position has yielded results.
Bottom line........if you want to win in the NFL you need talented receiving targets.
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1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:
I mentioned in the other WR thread, go grab Terrance Marshall from the Panthers. He’s big, fast and still just 23 years old. He played for Brady at LSU and was drafted for Brady’s offense in Carolina. He was given permission to seek a trade in the fall and that was before the Panthers added Diontae Johnson and David Moore. He is just buried down there for whatever reason and needs a change of scenery. I get it that he isn’t the number 1 or whatever, but he knows the offense, he is big and fast and can catch the football and there is a pedigree there. He is an outside receiver. He should also be very cheap and Dan Morgan obviously is connected to the front office here. Sometimes these guys just get buried.
These trades for aging veterans on huge deals just isn’t going to happen. Anyone think of any other young guys buried from regime changes or trades?
The only other young guys who are buried that I could think of are Texans John Metchie and the Browns Cedric Tillman.
Whatever happens and whoever we add, I am still taking a 1st round receiver and I think the mid trade up for Brian Thomas makes the most sense.
I liked Marshall as a potential Gabe Davis upgrade at X in that 2021 draft but it just hasn't materialized for him. From the sounds of it he just hasn't worked hard enough for the opportunities in Carolina. Doesn't play special teams so once he got down the chart it was easy to inactivate him last season.
As you note he is big and fast and also has better hands than Gabe, is better at contested catches and can actually be effective on short, chain moving throws that the clap-catcher could not. But something has been missing. He was a 5 star recruit, was drafted as a 20 year old and maybe he thought it was just going to keep coming easy for him and hasn't risen to the challenge.
It really surprises me that Marshall hasn't changed teams but his trade value is like nil going into a walk year with such a loaded draft class so maybe the Panthers have just chosen to hold onto him and see if he breaks out.
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On 4/5/2024 at 7:19 PM, SirAndrew said:
I love the game of baseball itself, but everything associated with MLB has become a joke. The NFL makes ridiculous moves, but they’re such a loved institution it doesn’t matter. MLB already shredded the minor league system, and seems insistent on bringing the game to fewer fans, at a time they should be reaching out to more fans. Baseball isn’t a TV driven sport like football, they should be looking for an opportunity to bring the game to a larger paying audience, not a 14K seat stadium.
I agree about baseball making a mistake in reducing the amount of minor league affiliates........that was an unnecessary cost-cutting measure that limits opportunities for people to see pro baseball in person. Unfortunately, the A's have just never been supported in volume in Oakland. As I said in the other thread on this topic they were near the bottom of the league in attendance when they were on that historic 3 straight WS victory run in the 1970's at a time when the ballpark was NOT a relic.
Their ballpark should have been replaced with one of those retro style parks back in the 1990's but Oakland had that Marshawn Lynch, sneak your own booze in attitude about the A's. Now the government realizes they should have made more effort to keep those 81 home dates but the PR has been so bad for so long there is no guarantee that if the A's build a new park that the fans won't stay away out of spite. They need a fresh start.
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9 hours ago, Billl said:
Yes, he gets a ton more targets but he doesn’t put up all that much more production. In 2022, Metcalf had 50 more targets. He wound up with 200 more yards and one fewer TD than Davis. I’m pretty sure Davis could have equaled his yardage total had he been forcefed the ball the way Metcalf was.
Last season, Metcalf had 30 more targets. He had 350 more yards and 1 more TD. So over the past 2 seasons, Metcalf has had 550 more yards and the same number of TDs on 80 more targets.
I’m not trying to say that they’re equal players. Metcalf is significantly better than Davis, but the margin isn’t nearly as wide as people here think. DK is wildly over-rated here and Davis was always wildly under appreciated. Guys who put up 7 TDs a season don’t grow on trees.
Gabe is much more of a Marquez Valdes Scantling comp than he is a comp to Metcalf.
Gabe and MVS have benefitted immensely from playing their entire careers with elite QB's and being a complementary option.
When given opportunities to step up in class........they have both wilted.
Metcalf is similar stylistically, but he's clearly on a different level. He is often tasked with going against the opponents top CB and has produced despite non-elite QB play. Btw.....as you know, you cherry picked Metcalf's catch %........which is over 60% for his career versus Gabe's career 54.5%.
And as @BuffaloRebound also noted.........due to his physicality DK becomes a much more effective player in the playoffs when the yellow hankies get tucked away. Gabe gets called "playoff Gabe" as he has put up 68 yards per game and 6 TD in 7 games..........but Metcalf has averaged 113 yards per game and scored 5 TD in 4 games.
Is DK worth the top of the market $ for a WR? No, but he's probably worth somewhere in the middle of that and what Gabe and MVS have been paid on their 2nd contracts.
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Gotcha...misunderstood what you were saying about that, so thanks for clearing that up.
To be clear, I am pretty sure he only had 3 drops as a rookie not 4. 2 in the reg season and the one playoff one you mentioned that was overturned on replay. But the one everyone harps on is the playoff one. Except they forget that was a rookie who had just 20 regular season targets in a playoff game catching a bullet rope from Allen that traveled on a rope 60 yards in the air. Should he have caught it, definitely, and he almost did, ball touched the ground on the roll over. But should that play now define him forever in terms what he can or can't do? No.
Make no mistake about it, catching passes from a cannon arm like Allen takes time to adjust to. Ball gets there way faster and harder than you expect, and it takes reps and time to build up that timing and chemistry. Ask any WR or QB they will not only tell you the same, but also tell you its even more important than even I am saying. Shakir got just 20 targets all reg season, he was behind McKenzie and then Cole all year and playoffs. He wasn't getting a lot of first team reps. And he was now in his first playoff game catching a 60 yard pass on a rope from Allen. Still should have caught it, just saying maybe lets not define his career arc on what he can or can't do on this one single play. Its not like Diggs, Hill, Jefferson, etc haven't dropped easier passes than this one too, it happens.
As far as training camp...I know that you and I both know that camp reports are useless and people get overly excited or down every camp over them. Perfect example...Shakir vs Gabe Davis. Davis was once again the "star" of camp and an unstoppable monster this same camp. How did that play out for Davis? Still meh...still dropping passes. Still disappeared. Meanwhile couple drops were mentioned out of the thousands of reps and drills they run in camp by Shakir and now everyone was like he sucks, cant catch, is nothing but a 4th or 5th WR who then goes out and leads the NFL in catch rate and led the Bills in receiving under Joe Brady.
So yeah...lets not talk about camp news as if that is any indicator of anything. I know you feel the same way about that because you get mad when people were believing the hype on Davis or amping up some camp fodder scrub.
And for the record...I agree with the bolded too above. Keep in mind, I am not claiming him to be a boundary WR, just saying he will be more than a typical slot WR and can move around.
Like I said, my rationale is based on Shakir not having made these plays. I'm not presuming he couldn't possibly get better but the good tape isn't there. And instead some bad tape is.
You make an interesting point about the bullets that Allen throws. Allen can reach parts of the field with low trajectory bullets that maybe no other QB can.......and that trait can elevate a receiver if they can catch a 40 yard rope.
Early on Allen's range made the field huge for a guy like Gabe Davis and allowed him to really press coverage deep and then comeback to huge open spaces that CB's weren't used to having to defend. Aided Diggs greatly as well. But that gave a false read on Davis' potential. Coverage adapted to his limited route tree, exposed his inability to catch contested passes etc..
Not having players who can take advantage of Allen's rather unique arm talent makes Allen less special as a passer. That's what we saw last season.......he just covered for it by running the ball to keep the chains moving.
What Shakir does well translates more to the league in general than what Davis can do but it's also stuff that maybe a Brock Purdy could do just as well or better than Allen. If Shakir could add the ability to track and catch those low trajectory, high rpm deep throws that would make him far more valuable to the Bills.
As it stands the Bills don't really have ANY WR that can help them take advantage of Allen's arm talent.
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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
But he isn't a ball dropper, he led the NFL for all receivers in catch rate. He isn't that vertical outside threat, but neither is Deebo Samuel for example who is actually a ball dropper. But it is what Deebo can do with the ball in his hands that makes him different. Its also how dangerous he can be in that short to mid zone.
The bigger issue is his shorter arms when it comes to his down field game, he has a lower margin of error on the throw with a smaller catch radius as he isn't the go up and get it WR Diggs was in his similar sized frame. But he can still attack the deeper part of the field, especially out of the slot. And as far as stopping his feet, not sure how a WR 40 yards down field stops his feet without the ball going past them unless its to catch an underthrown ball. If you haven't already, I encourage you to watch the highlight reel in my OP because he makes a lot of his catches in stride down field and he only stops or comes back on underthrown passes.
The highlighted is not what I said. I said when he was tried deep he was a ball dropper in the 2022 season/postseason. The drop of the wide open bomb in the WC game versus Miami was brutal. The concerns about his hands after 4 drops on just 27 targets grew from there when he had a really bad training camp. And given the great hype, people were shocked to consider he could already be on the bubble going into year 2.
The Bills did a good job of keeping his throws short to intermediate this year. They just asked him to do what he was good at. That's how you get the most out of players with limitations.
As for what I mean about stopping his feet on DEEP throws..........it's basically the "can you walk and chew gum at the same time" thing with receivers. Some can track the deep ball and catch it in stride.........others like Shakir have to stop their feet or jump so they can just focus on catching the ball. On short to intermediate throws Shakir is good at catching the ball and doing it in stride....... but doing it on the deep ball is an aspect that separates those with the highest ceiling from the rest and something you definitely want from an outside receiver.
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I will add that there was A LOT of hype in general about the Shakir pick back in 2022. Like I said, we had people on TSW go so far as drawing comps to Stef Diggs. A lot was EXPECTED.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
I'm sorry I disagree on this. The reason he is slot only is because he is the bottom one percentile all time for NFL receivers in terms of arm length. It means he struggles to get off press and it means he struggles when fighting with DBs downfield. He also frankly just doesn't run routes well enough for the outside where you really need to be at your landmarks because your QB rarely has the luxury of throwing to you as a stopped target outside. It has been proven on the field too. His effectiveness drops significantly vs man and when line up outside. He is a slot receiver who you use against zone defenses between the hashes and trust his quick feet and elusiveness to get you yards after the catch.
He didn't though.
The other issue I have with Shakir outside is that there is no indication that he can track the ball well enough to threaten teams vertically. He's fast enough but guys who track the ball well catch the ball 40 yards down the field with an ease that's not much different than how they do it 15 yards down the field. In limited opportunities he's been a ball dropper and I think I saw one time on his college tape where he actually caught a deep ball in stride. He likes to stop his feet on longer throws. I am certain if I can see that he knows it and maybe that's something he can improve but it's a weakness, IMO.
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5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Anyone making Diggs out to be a bum is just being a hater. Diggs was an elite route separator for Josh. He can still play at a high level.
But I don’t believe he ever made defenses change what they do. I don’t think he was ever that type of WR.
Oh I think he made defenses change what they wanted to do. No doubt. But the problem was that his finesse style didn't translate well to the postseason clutching and grabbing.
There is a reason that Travis Kelce averages 15 yards per game more and has almost twice the TD production per game in the playoffs versus the regular season despite the Chiefs offense scoring less in general. His game translates to flag-less football. Diggs game goes the opposite direction, less yardage and less TD/game.
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18 hours ago, Just Jack said:
how do you think the Bills would be now?
They would have drafted Mahomes, IMO.
But Rex was pretty checked out. He gave Pegula an ultimatum because he didn't want to coach. The NY job burned him out he just took what was then a massive contract to be the Bills HC. Anthony Lynn would have been the HC for Mahomes rookie year, most likely.
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Gilmore hurt because they got NOTHING for him and it was basically a certainty that he would be excellent and win a SB with NE.
The Watkins trade was demoralizing because they had had a very good scoring offense that also lead the NFL in big plays in both 2015 and 2016..........and the Watkins trade basically guaranteed that they were going back to the stone age offensively. I can't unsee those horrible 2017 and 2018 offenses. Just disgusting terrible football.
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1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:
i agree with the first half of your statements...not sure about his character.
Anybody who juggles two women by putting them up in the same hotel for Valentine's Day has suspect character. He's a real, unapologetic self-indulgent lizard brain type. To expect him to not let the leverage he has in his business relationship compromise his behavior is a leap of faith. Not saying he's a criminal by any means, just that he isn't trustworthy unless you have the leverage on him.
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26 minutes ago, Bills Fan in MD said:
So how long until Diggs starts making cryptic comments about Stroud?
He will be on his best behavior until he gets a new deal. This deal puts him on notice because his guarantees are now gone. He was fine in Buffalo until he got the extension. It's human nature. Like getting paid up front to do a job. The eye tends to wander toward what's next. That's where the quality of character comes in and unfortunately Diggs doesn't have much of that.
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interesting WR scenario posed by a friend
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I just presume Renfrow is washed. He might not be but two consecutive Isaiah McKenzie-esque seasons from a slot-only receiver should make him a non-option for a team loaded with guys who are best in the slot.