BADOLBILZ
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Posts posted by BADOLBILZ
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30 minutes ago, JohnNord said:
Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.
I’ve seen fans with some pretty lofty expectations including comparisons to Tee Higgins or even calling him a future WR1. Personally, I think that bar is too high.
Yes, I do believe Coleman will improve from last season, but I’m expecting more of a modest jump rather than a breakout.
His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.
Tim Graham recently dug into the numbers using TruMedia and looked at all WRs drafted between picks 28 and 35 since the NFL’s 2002 realignment. Here’s what he found (excluding newer guys like Coleman, Worthy, and McConkey who haven’t played enough yet):
Average game: 5 targets, 3 catches, 44 yards, 0.3 TDs
Average season: 13 games, 35 catches, 471 yards, 3 TDs
Average career: 77 games, 203 catches, 2,691 yards, 15 TDs
The top careers in that group belong to Jabar Gaffney, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Even former Bills darling Kelvin Benjamin ranks in the top 10 for receptions and yards — meaning his career was actually above average for that draft slot.
So when you look at it, Coleman’s 2024 season already puts him close to the average for WRs taken in that range:
29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs
There’s definitely room for growth but expecting him to become a dominant WR1 or a high level WR might be unrealistic.
That said, I’m optimistic we’ll see some improvement. Personally, I’m projecting:
2025 prediction: 38 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TDs
What about you? What are your expectations for Coleman this season?
Lumping recently drafted, big producing WR's like Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman in the same sample with Gaffney/Britt/Nicks is just bad data, IMO.
The latter 3 were drafted for a very different league.
Taking a sample size for the WR position back further than players drafted after the 2010 rules changes is very likely to give you a skewed result.
Those rules basically neutered the complex Pittsburgh and Rex Ryan type pass defense's that had stunted QB development in the NFL for the better part of 15 years prior.
They only worked if you could kill shot the WR's and QB's.
The QB position instantly became less cerebral and the WR position gradually became more about athleticism than toughness-over-the-middle than it was before.
There was an initial huge boost in offensive production. More numbers meant more money for players in the passing game, even if most ships were being raised by the tide..
That triggered more interest in playing offensive skill positions at the youth level. The rise of 7 on 7 etc..
We really started seeing the change in quality of athlete late in the 2010's.
Those kids who used to be steered into other sports started reaching the pro's because of the big money and long careers promised at QB and WR.
Coleman is part of a different group. He probably would have stuck with hoops if he were in college in 2002.
I don't think it's at all unreasonable for fans to expect him to be a 1,000 yard receiver this year.
Rashee Rice was on pace for 1400 yards last year when he blew out his knee. Higgins and Pittman both put up 1,000 in their second years.
Coleman is not a lesser athlete than any of those guys IMO and while 1,000 yards will put you in the top 25 in the NFL it isn't going to make you a household name.
Ask Pittman.
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1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:
You and others here are making lots of assumptions about James Cook, basically that he'll never improve as a player:
- Pass protection is below par
- Pass catching is inconsistent
- Cannot handle a heavier workload
- His career curve will be no better than his brother's
I don't make these assumptions. By all accounts James is a diligent and competitive player. He's 25 years old.
Last year he asked for and received goal-line responsibilities and knocked that one out of the park. He was the best goal-line back that anyone following the Bills can remember.
Many here seem to believe that were he to take snaps away from Ty Johnson that the Bills offense would be worse for it.
I feel the complete opposite. I believe the Bills offense would improve dramatically.
I also believe that Cook's best years are ahead of him. JMO.
That might be the craziest post in this thread.
All feels, no common sense.
You don't early-extend a RB AND pay him top of the market on the basis that you assume he will:
-Go from a liability in pass pro to very good
-Become a much better pass receiver
-Prove he can handle a much greater workload like the other top paid RB's
-And not fall completely off the cliff a couple years from now like Dalvin did in his 3.2 ypc age 28 season.
Those are the reasons why you AT LEAST wait to pay him until he proves he can improve.
Top of the market is still going to be there. What are you risking by making him prove it?
And I mean Ty Johnson put up a greater ypc at 5.2 versus 4.9 and his ridiculous 15.8 yards per reception was almost twice that of Cook(8.1).
And Johnson can actually pass block.
That's why Allen could call him the best 3rd down back in the NFL and have a strong case.
That being the case the only way the offense could "dramatically" improve on third downs is if Cook is better than those gaudy numbers. Even if Johnson falls off a cliff now, the standard for the RB position for the Bills on 3rd down is astronomically high.
Hilariously crazy takes by you.
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11 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
Even the difference between a heavy man and a heavy zone covered scheme is not that much
You're not talking 80% man 20% zone.. 20% zone 80% man
Sean McDermott is one of the heaviest zone users in the NFL and we still play Man almost 40% of the time... And it jumps up significantly on third down
No team in the NFL could survive playing 75% of zone or man coverage across the board all game any day.. when the game gets tighter Sean McDermott starts calling tighter man
When it's third down and he needs a stop he's going cover one man
But do you need 1st round talent CB's to execute in an "80% zone" scheme?
Of course not.CB and S body types with baseline NFL quality traits are typically very easy to find relative to all other positions except *maybe* RB.
It's why starting Bills CB's like Taron Johnson, Benford, Dane Jackson, and Levi Wallace were day 3 picks or UDFA.
It's why there are people thinking Jordan Hancock or Dorian Strong could become starting players.
By contrast, try finding boundary WR talent on day 3.
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3 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:
What it means is that the Bills (and all other teams) should be loading up on receivers in every draft, because it’s an arbitrage opportunity - if any of them hit, you get guaranteed cheap labor at an expensive premium position. And by the same token, they should stop wasting draft picks on RBs every year (except this one), because you can find decent options in the $1 CD bin.
That basically applies to all premium positions.
The premium aka edge/island positions in the NFL today are:
QB
PassRush1
LT
WR1
CB1 (if system is man coverage because zone coverage is not playing on an island)
First and Second round for sure and subsequent mid-rounds if the evaluation is close......go premium.
This thread is talking about efficiency..........if you are going to be shopping in free agency you are most likely to get value from FA from the non-premium positions like Guard, Safety and RB. The Bills have invested recent second rounders in all 3.
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9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
If established, starting NFL vets (minus evergreen speed freaks like Darrell Green) are demonstrably slower after several years in the league, doesn't that legitimately deprioritize combine and pro day 40 times overall? Modern pre-draft speed training isn't exactly correlated with on-field impacts. Losing weight and training 3-point get-offs to trim hundredths off your 40 isn't exactly preparing these rookies for the rigors of an NFL campaign. The fact that NFL vets are potentially several tenths slower than their younger counterparts actually proves that 40 times are arbitrary, provided those vets are still legitimate starters. One can run a "meh" 40 but still have more than enough speed. NFL history is filled with 4.5+ guys who consistently dominated.
I'd put it more like this........players excelling on the field despite modest workout numbers is what proves that the testing doesn't promise results.
However, it provides a foundation.
The future performance can't be accurately predicted but if you pick a guy who runs sub 4.4 there is a greater chance that he will play fast than a guy who runs 4.6.
The way it's framed in media sometimes that doesn't seem to be the case........because when a guy like Christian Benford excels with a 4.53 40 time they don't mention that he's one of hundreds of CB draft hopefuls in the last 5 years to run a 4.5 or slower.........they point to the much smaller group in faster sub-sections and compare his play to those players.
Then it's something like "hey, only 3 of the 10 guys that ran under 4.4 in that draft class are good NFL CB's and Benford is as good or better than them........must be track speed doesn't matter".
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4 hours ago, FireChans said:
I feel like there is.
whats the line about having 2 of the top 32 pass catchers in almost every Super Bowl team?
How many of those guys were signed in FA vs were drafted or traded for?
Off the top of my head, guys like Hill, Brown, Kittle, Aiyuk, Smith, Kelce, etc etc.
I’d imagine next to none of them were Josh Palmer or Curtis Samuel tier FAs that got their best seasons at the right time, right?
But your point is to draft and NOT PAY market rate when they hit free agency. Correct?
Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, George Kittle(or Deebo), AJ Brown & Devonta Smith........these guys have all played in SB's on second and/or 3rd contracts.
More often than not at least one of those two "top 32" guys is on a big second deal.
The new "top of the market" might be a higher % of the cap than it ever was but it was also a year when a WR tandem earning $32M and $25M aav, respectively, just won the SB.
So that doesn't support the use em' up and draft a replacement model.
That's not to say there is a lot of support for the Palmer/Samuel approach of trying to sign a potential lower end top 32. Smith-Schuster was that guy and it worked for the Chiefs but a lot of these teams have two studs that they drafted or traded for so they didn't need to venture into FA.
Nobody is disputing that the best way to fill premium positions is thru the draft but it's the part about not paying them and just trying to draft a replacement that likely doesn't work. WR is one of the highest bust rate positions. It's not as easy as replacing RB's. When you get a very good WR you should endeavor to keep them.
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3 hours ago, FireChans said:
Oh I'm not arguing about talent or the need for quality pass catches. I agree with trying early and often to get them.
The problem I have is that Josh Palmer or Curtis Samuel have next to no chance to be in the top 32 of receiving options in 2025. Just like the story we were sold on having 5 #3 and #4 WR's with Mack, Claypool and MVS was last year.
So I don't want to play in a market where we are dedicating 17M AAV (Samuel + Palmer) for what? Maybe ~700 yards and a handful of TDs?
On the contrary, I would try to almost exclusively acquire WR talent from the draft. Maybe trade. Never FA.
The WR position is a marquee position. The great ones are rarely hitting the market. There are a LARGE amount of overpaid bust FA WR signings. And IMO for a lot of them, the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
I'm not a fan of the money given Samuel or Palmer either......but I also wouldn't say that they had "next to no chance" to be a top 32 receiving option when signed.
The figure to aim for is 60 yards per game. That gets you inside that top 32.
Samuel hit 57 ypg in 2020 playing for Joe Brady...........so while you and I might see him as a sunk cost now........you can see the logic in thinking he could be a little better with Josh Allen.
Palmer had 58 ypg in 2023. As a precise route runner who gets separation he sorta fits the profile of Brown, Beasley and Diggs.......players who did get a bump playing with Allen.
But those were their BEST seasons. I'm the guy who always reminds @JerseyBills that when you sign Trent Sherfield you tend to get something close to the average Sherfield season and not the single outlier.
But in the end..........the cost of trying to back door your way to a very good 60 ypg option in free agency appears to be about 1/4 of the real cost of paying a 90-100 ypg WR1 (if you could get one).
That really doesn't seem all that out-of-whack if you believe that individual passing game talent is much more important than individual running game talent.
Which it is. JAG RB's can run for 1,000 yards with good blocking. WR is more of an island spot so that individual production means more.
And as far as focusing on the draft over paying top dollar to retain or acquire WR talent..........I don't think there is a clear succeed/fail correlation there.
Your argument needs that to be convincing.
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18 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Fair points.
The snaps/dolllars amount makes Khalil Shakir's 13M AAV deal comparable to the tops in the league though.
WRT the value of receivers:
The quality of your top receiving options has been a much greater indicator of whether you can reach a SB than your offensive or defensive rank over the last decade.
This past season was the first time in Mahomes career as a starter that he didn't have TWO of the top 32 receiving yardage leaders in the NFL on his team.
Josh Allen has only had that situation once.......in 2020 with Diggs and Beasley at the top of their games........and of course was beaten by a team with prime Hill/Kelce.
Mahomes was subsequently beaten in the SB this season by a team with two of the top 32. Brown and Smith.
It's usually the case that the two teams in the SB have two very impactful WR's or an elite WR/TE combo.
What the Bills are trying to do with "everybody eats" is already an outlier.
Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens have all thrown a lot of talent and/or money at the receiving positions.
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34 minutes ago, FireChans said:
suffice it to say, at this point, I think there’s better value in paying Cook over a Josh Palmer or Gabe Davis tier free agent. And I think the Bills get a competitive edge over a league that is throwing money hand over fist at guys like that by recognizing it first.
Honestly, I think you've really overthought it.
It's deep in the offseason.
The logic reminds me of the year Levy took over as GM and he signed 15 scrub free agents because he said that the Patriots success with inexpensive role players was going to be the new standard of team building.
The Patriots were an outlier. No level of injury prevented the Patriots from executing their plans. Because it turned out that knowing the opposing play calls before the snap really elevated the level of play. WR Troy Brown could even play CB when he knew exactly what route his opponent was running.
They faked it til they made it and just before they got caught they loaded their roster.
And Levy was left with a bunch of overpaid trash.
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3 hours ago, FireChans said:
There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here.
First, let's set the stage:
In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M.
In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension.
That extension was 4 years for 57M. An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract.
Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space.
Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever.
Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD.
in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal.
So what conclusions can we draw from this?
Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable.
However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack.
I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV. We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did.
I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does.
What you aren't accounting for is that James Cook is not an every down RB like Todd Gurley was.
If he were an 825 snap RB like Gurley in 2018 instead of the 485 snap guy like Cook in 2024 then there *might* be an argument to be made.
But in the same way that if your aunt had balls she'd be your uncle sorta *might*.
Because that's not who Cook can be at this point.
Here are the numbers:
Gurley had exactly 1.7x the usage.
The cap has gone up 1.58x since 2018.
So $14M would be worth $8.25M of 2018 cap dollars at the mere 48% of snaps that Cook played.
The snaps matter. Being able to keep Gurley in on the most important down was a huge benefit to the offense. He caught a bunch of passes at about a 10 yard per clip rate and was a tremendous pass blocker.
That $8.25M figure that Gurley's snap adjusted contract would equate to is $13M today.
So basically.........at $15M you would be paying Cook considerably more than 1st team All-Pro Gurley was earning on a per snap/adjusted cap basis.
And that deal turned out to be a big failure for the Rams.
You can hope to keep getting a rookie and cheap vet to handle the other 50% of snaps but if you are going to do that........let "everybody eat" at RB instead of paying one 8-10x more than the other two.
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30 minutes ago, Brand J said:
Yeah I don’t disagree with anything here, just pointing out that speed doesn’t necessarily drop off a cliff just because a player ages. Usain ran that time in sweats and without warming up, so if he had dedicated a couple months or so to running his fastest 40 at age 33…? I’m not so sure it would’ve been a couple of steps lost from his prime. Would it have been slower? Minuscule, certainly not by greater than a tenth (as evidenced by his 4.22).
The wear and tear on the body is the biggest culprit for why one would drastically lose steps. If the body is well maintained and the player is lucky enough to avoid major injuries, they can continue making a living running with the young guys.
Yeah I've long used Lofton as an example of the hand-eye coordination frequently going before the speed for all-time athletes like Lofton. He could still get open late in his career he just couldn't catch the ball. The Bills had to dump him because of it.
Same thing happened at the end with the aforementioned Terrell Owens. He couldn't catch wet if he fell out of a boat by the end of his playing career.
Owens did have an ACL tear but he didn't make a career of tackling people.
And one of the reasons defensive success is much less predictable than offensive success is that the back 7 tend to get a lot more real miles than their "skill position" counterparts on offense.
Starting LB's and DB's are expected to play virtually 100% of the defensive snaps(and often special teams as well) and tackle players at RB/TE/WR who are rotating in and out of the game.
It's unsurprising when a player who has put up 3250 snaps in his first 3 years like Tre White did starts getting injured. By contrast, James Cook has played just 1389 snaps in his first 3 seasons.
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8 hours ago, Brand J said:
As long as the player hasn’t suffered any major injuries or his body hasn’t broken down in other ways that compromise his movement, a player can retain his speed throughout his career. And I’ve heard coaches and players alike say that “strength and speed” are the last to leave you. Usain Bolt ran a 4.22 at 33 years old in sweat pants.
Terrell Owens is faster now than he was at the combine, three decades ago. Darrell Green, Don Beebe, James Lofton, etc. And it’s not just the speedsters - Doug Flutie said his speed was still the same when a reporter asked how fast he was (because he was an older player running around like a young one). If your body can avoid breaking down, you’ll still have your speed. Obviously that’s not the case with Tre.There are exceptions. Green and Lofton could still run late in their NFL careers. Nature favors the lithe track-build. Flutie and Owens claims are conjecture. Some Tik-tok 35 yard dash with a laser pointer on a tripod being sold as a measuring device doesn't convince me that Owens runs a 4.4 at age 50. That's why I referenced the infamous NFL veteran combine. Legit times. Finding an NFL veteran without your stipulations is not the norm. There is a reason that Marquise Goodwin refused to play with any minor injury while with the Bills when he was training for the Olympics. All of those inevitable "minor" muscle and joint injuries you get in the NFL compound and add ticks to those track times. And of course, Usain Bolt is an irrelevant comp because he didn't play a contact sport. And 4.22 would have been a couple lost steps for him.
By 2020 Tre White had already lost a step in coverage. And that was prior to the injuries. Go back and watch him trying to run with the Rams last year. Brutal.
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1 hour ago, boyst said:
since this pivoted to Shakir; i am not sure Shakir could handle being a 100+ reception guy. i think he has 3 maybe 4 more years at this level as a maximum.
the less we feed him the ball the better he will be and we can only do that by giving other targets to Josh
Yeah Shakir takes a beating. It's his style of play. He tries to break every tackle and that has really endeared him to us as a fanbase. Along with Allen's athleticism those things sustain a ton of drives that would otherwise be lifeless because of a lack of gamebreaking difference-making talent in the pass game.
They will have to pace Shakir like a RB because of it though. And it only takes a fraction of the hits a RB takes to take a toll on a receiver. One of those 360 spins where he ends up blindly taking a helmet to the chin on the other side is a kind of hit RB's rarely ever take because they can see the defense in front of them when they get the ball. There isn't any blocking to protect you out there and you don't have a step to give like most RB's do. Beasley went from excellent to impediment when he lost a half step.
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2 minutes ago, Simon said:
It doesn't even have to be boundary talent.
If Kincaid can get his head out, the Bills can stress defenses enough between the hashes to create a lot of opportunities for the slot.
Overall, maybe so.
But I think with regard to production in games against better teams they need to threaten more on the boundary to open up the field for the slot/TE routes.
We found that out in Baltimore last season. Shakir missed the Houston game but it was a similar situation........the Texans took away the Shakir/Kincaid area of the field and Allen failed to connect with Hollins and the result was disastrous offense.
They needed and got better play on the boundary to beat KC at home and to produce like they did on the road at LAR and Detroit. They got it but it didn't come easy. Wasn't the walk-in TD days of Diggs/Brown/Davis.
Even on paper it's not a surety that they are better outside. We hope Coleman is better than Hollins(because that's likely his role) and that Palmer threatens defense's more than Cooper........but teams were legitimately concerned about Cooper because he'd been one of the most explosive outside WR of this era.
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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
The point about Shakir is the efficiency would continue to fall because he isn't versatile (or you might say 'complete') enough to be used in the range of ways you would need to use him to get him 160 targets. You'd end up trying to force feed the ball to him in situations where he is not best suited to a) get open and b) make the catch and so the likelihood is the efficiency would drop again. The more you get away from using the particular skillset he has and towards trying to use him as a "do it all" receiver the less efficient he will ultimately be.
Yeah @Alphadawg7 is simply so dug in on Shakir being great that he has to keep floating out "I'm just sayyyyyying" faux projections.
Von Miller had 6 sacks on 279 snaps last year.
That projects to 20 sacks over the course of a 930 snaps-played season like he had early in his career.
Who thinks Von Miller would have been the NFLDPOY if they just played him 85% of the snaps?
Everybody eats only works if everybody is used efficiently.
To your point.........less of Shakir was more in 2023 and would probably be so again in 2025 if they can develop or find some boundary talent worthy of targeting instead.
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15 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
A 4.46 is not slow lol
Modern training combine times have people thinking world class speed is slow
People running in the 4.3's is not the norm... And plenty of players in that speed whether they're wide receivers or cornerbacks are all speed with no skill
Tre white has plenty of speed when he came out in the 4.46s.. like that's running 20 miles an hour
Insanely fast... He's just not as fast as Tyreek Hill which most people are not
Stefan diggs ran a 4.45-4.46... he's not slow... Derrick Henry ran a 4.5 , hes not slow
Cook ran a 4.42... that's literally milliseconds off of Tre white and nobody would say cook is slow
4.46 is not good speed for a 5'11" NFL boundary CB though. He was never quick/fast for the type of player he was.
And Tre White probably couldn't break 4.7 with a 40 mph wind at his back these days.
I've told the story about the time the NFL hilariously tried a veteran combine........those 4.6's turned into 4.9's by age 26.
The track numbers usually erode quickly and Tre's legs are hamburger at this point.
Also, the difference between 4.46 and 4.42 is 4 hundreds of a second. That's what you were thinking of. A millisecond is a thousandth of a second.
Not that it's relevant because Cook doesn't play on the boundary where the NFL's fastest players live. Apples and oranges.
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12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
I will be really curious to see how Tre does in camp. He looked washed last year. But maybe an extra year away from that Achilles will get him back to a serviceable level?I'm not too intrigued.
Even if Tre White had stayed healthy for his entire career he would be aging out at CB.
He could get healthier and worse at the same time.
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3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:
Love the depth , White, Strong and Dane
Feel like all 3 are better than Rasul. He was awful last year
Tre White was horrendous in 2024 and Dane Jackson was worse........arguably the worst CB in the entire NFL last year. He had a 33.9 pff grade.
I had to laugh when I perused the Sammy Watkins trade thread a while back and you chimed in about how good Jordan Matthews was.
Have you ever thought that a player the Bills have wasn't better than one they no longer had? 😂
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1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Not only their star veteran DE holding out, but also their 2025 1ST ROUND PICK, as the Bengals FO tries to nickel and dime and screw players out of money.
A ROOOKIE going at the FO like this before camp even starts, and before he even has any contract signed!
Bengals are asking him to put clauses in his contract about giving back GUARANTEED money if he is cut. No rookie has ever been asked to do that. Plus, that makes it NOT GUARANTEED.
Frickin Mike Brown...
I am very thankful that the Bengals are still like this. They failed upwardly into superstars like Burrow and Chase and if they were competent they would have been cashing in every year on having 4 legit difference makers at key positions.
The mercurial Ralph Wilson won in the 1980's and 1990's because the AFC was loaded with owners who made Ralph look decent by comparison. Colts, Patriots, Oilers/Titans, Bengals, Chargers........a real bunch of dumpster fires at the top.
You can trace the Bills organizational decline to the influx of more progressive new owners. It didn't put them in the drought but it kept them there.
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Hopefully getting a practice squad vet type like Shaq Thompson allows them to run with less real LB's on the 53. They could really use that 6th LB spot to carry either a veteran or developmental type at DL or secondary. When Hoecht is activated hopefully he will be the 6th LB.
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1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:
I’m a Coleman Optimist but the thing that freaks me out watching him is that he seems to need contact with the defender in order to orient himself on the field. That’s a basketball habit and he desperately needs to break it.Yeah that was what I saw at Florida State. We've discussed it before. If you've played or just watched a lot of hoops you see it.
It's not all bad. One of the reasons he's so great with YAC is because that close proximity and his feel for the contact prevents DB's from being able to break down to tackle him. That definitely, naturally plays better from the slot.
By contrast, Davante Adams mixes up his game by threatening DB's using close proximity for those embarrassing back shoulder and late hands catches........the fear of those allows him to set them up and create separation on others.
Coleman was a long way away from doing anything like that at the end of the season though.
There is a horrible offensive series in second quarter of the AFCCG where Allen throws a tick behind Kincaid and he can't make the semi-contested catch, then Allen throws an ankle ball to a wide open Samuel who is less than 10 air yards away.............and then on 3rd and long Coleman runs a just terrible, brain-dead go route down the sideline right into McDuffie and the drive is over. All the Bills problems in the passing game exposed in one sequence.
That was probably my lowest point in the Coleman experience last year.
My hope is he comes back a greatly changed player. A full, healthy offseason to focus on football leaves little excuse for him to not make huge strides.
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54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea I don't see any nuance anywhere in his game. It's a bit bull in a china shop. I know you have used the Davante Adams comparison previously. He came out the first year I ever tried evaluating guys and I don't think I even looked at him so I don't know necessarily what I'd have made of him at a similar stage of his career / development. But Adams was second only to Stef Diggs as a route technician in his prime IMO and in a bigger, more powerful body and consequently better at the catch point. I don't know how someone (Coleman) who is so lacking in the basics of route running and spatial awareness goes from there to Davante Adams level good. That feels like a hell of a hill to climb to me and there are a lot of tendencies in his game that he'd have to unlearn pretty quickly.
Yeah it's definitely the potential I am referencing and not what Coleman has entered the league as.
Adams was a very high volume target at Fresno State. I remember being surprised he went in round 2 because I didn't think he could get open in the NFL. And he couldn't. He basically had to re-learn how to play the position at the pro level. So he didn't reach his potential until year 5. He really opened my eyes to that type of unusual skillset.
My biggest issue with the Coleman selection was that he looked to be a LONG way from where he needed to be. The Bills needed help right away. They needed what BTJ became.
Coleman performed better than I expected statistically but a lot of that was literally Josh Allen buying time that should get any receiver open. The Seattle TD. The big play in Detroit.
Putting him in the slot would definitely be a short cut. I believe you are spot on about that. I generally think most receivers would be better in slot conditions. The Jags are even trying to get BTJ a lot more slot reps this year.
But putting Josh Allen in a simpler offensive system in 2018 would have been a short cut too. That's what I wanted. I don't know that he could have evolved into quite the same quality of player without the challenge of mastering the EP system though.
I guess I would take my chances with keeping Coleman outside and challenging him. Because I feel the ceiling is higher than you. Josh Allen is probably going to continue to throw a top 5 amount of deep balls and they need to stop getting bottom 5 results from those throws.
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15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I think the bottom end of your range is more like the ceiling personally. He is a bit boom and bust Keon and I expect that to continue. He will have 2 or 3 big games and then others where he has 1 catch for 19 yards or something.
I'd be absolutely fine with a year from Keon that is over 800 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns. But it wouldn't change the way I feel about the Bills' need for a difference maker on the boundary. To be honest even a 1,000 yard season wouldn't. The same way I always pushed back against the "John Brown had a thousand yard season he is a number 1 receiver" narrative that got some push around here coming out of 2019.
I'm curious why you think his ceiling is so low?
Is it because he seems so intellectually unsophisticated that you doubt he can overcome his lack of elite speed/quickness and become a technician?
To me, Davante Adams and Coleman are very similar athletes and their strengths(aside from the leaping ability) are physical aspects that are not really easily gleaned from athletic testing. Despite a ton of action in college it took Adams a relatively long time to learn how to use his subtle gifts to beat the NFL CB's who were basically all much faster than him.
I think physically Coleman has the potential to develop a very nuanced game that the elite track numbers guys that are in his size range.....like DK Metcalf, Xavier Legette, Nyck Harbor......really don't/won't.
But I DEFINTELY question whether he's got the combination of intelligence, awareness and desire to turn his G league athleticism into what Adams has.
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37 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:
I don't know if Beane sees it that way though. A surprising amount of GM's around the league don't. I keep hearing he never gives RB's second contracts but the only two pieces of evidence are Singletary or Moss who are just JAG's. He was in on trading for McCaffrey (who also happened to be the 1st round pick the last year he was with the Panthers) and has even said that he'd consider drafting a RB in the 1st round. If he thinks that way why even have an analytic staff?
I'd rather draft a RB that at minimum gives me 85% of what Cook gives me for a fifth of the price.
Yeah every so often GM's have to re-learn not to pay RB's. I don't think Beane is an exception. If anything he's worse than most with cap management and that's why the Bills were in cap stress early in Allen's rookie deal and are among the biggest users of void years in the league now etc..
The Niners are getting burned for giving McCaffrey the deal. Saquon is due to blow another ACL so I doubt that deal comes anywhere close to ending well after all those miles he accumulated last year. Henry is the one aberration because he's an Adrian Peterson level of beast but the next 7-8 or so guys on the highest paid RB list looks like a whole lot of regret. RB's aren't suddenly going to stop getting hurt and flaming out young.
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RB and WR markets are actually insane.
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Oh here we go with the peace-outs when you don't want to defend your nonsense.
As a teenager my aunt was visiting and asked me how summer work was going and I complained to her about a lack of systems in place in the family business.
She asked me what I would do about it.
I said I didn't know, and that it was basically outta my pay/experience grade, but there had to be a better way.
The equivalent of your vague "there is a deal that would satisfy both sides as well".
She told me you will need to learn that if you don't have a solution to offer then you should just "shut the f#ck up".
That's where you went wrong here. You lowered the bar of the argument for a Cook extension by voicing vague, nonsensical complaints that you clearly hadn't thought thru and then didn't offer anything remotely resembling a solution. You sound like a real job-site instigator. 😂