Wizard
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Regardless of whether you are a fan of our first three picks (Spiller,, Troup, and Carrington) or not (I'm not), there are mixed feelings on this board about getting a quarterback still in this draft.
Presented below are a few facts to consider when spending a pick on a QB in Rounds 4-7.
Between the years 1994 to 2005, there were 85 quarterbacks selected in Rounds 4-7 plus an unknown amount of free agents who were signed after the draft or got invited to a training camp.
Obviously, Warner and Romo were "needles in a haystack", as undrafted free agents; otherwise, here are the guys that have had success. Ironically, in my opinion, the best three quarterbacks to come in Rounds 4-7 in this time period were 6th round draft choices.
In other words, if you are going to take a QB, take him in Round #6. On the other hand, I only consider (Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Garrard) clearly having had more successful careers than Edwards at this point in his career.
Conclusion: If the Bills are looking for a starter better than Edwards, then the chances of getting him in Rounds 4-7 is 4 (Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Garrard) out of 85 (guys drafted between 94-2005).
The odds: .047 or 4.7% chance the Bills will find a better QB in the draft than Edwards in Rounds 4-7.
Players That Have Made A Difference In Rounds 4-7.
Note: I didn't include QB's from 2006-2009 as a way of giving these players a fair chance of proving themselves as valuable QB pick in Rounds 4-7.
6 33 199 Patriots Tom Brady Michigan
6 34 187 Packers Matt Hasselbeck Boston College
6 2 168 Saints Marc Bulger West Virginia
4 5 106 Bears Kyle Orton Purdue
7 16 230 Patriots Matt Cassel USC
6 39 213 Ravens Derek Anderson Oregon State
5 24 155 Eagles A.J. Feeley Oregon
7 6 212 49ers Tim Rattay Louisiana Tech
4 10 108 Jaguars David Garrard East Carolina
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Just look at this defense and how much potential it has (4 new players in front 7 and are in bold)
DEs - Stroud, Edwards, Carrington, Kelsay
DTs - Williams, Troup
LBs - Schobel, Maybin, Davis, Mitchel, Poz
CBs - McGee, Mckelvin, Florence, Corner, Lankster
Ss - Byrd, Whitner, McKelvin, Wilson
There is only a few problems...Stroud isn't a DE in a 3-4 nor is Kelsay, and Carrington is a 4-3 DE. I'll give you Edwards. Troup weight is that of a DT. Schobel has never played 3-4 before, Lankster is practice squad material, McGee and McKelvin are short going against tall guys like Holmes, Marshall, and Moss. Whitner is an average player.
Other than that, I'd say the defense has a ton of potential.
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Well...with a reach in the 2nd for a NT (that has the weight of a 4-3 DT) and a reach for a 4-3 DE in a 3-4 Defense (that is freakishly athletic but lazy) let's get Selvish Capers a converted TE to play LT.
We might as well pick up Trinton Holliday (5'5 punt returner) to play OLB or FB in the 6th or 7th.
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saw a piece by Gruden's camp on spiller...
says and showed he is a "willing" blocker.
"willing" blocker is a polite way of saying he isn't good at it, but he'll try. It is like saying a woman is "nice", has a "sweet disposition", when it is a cover to say that she isn't too attractive on the outside.
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Last draft pick I got right was Lynch but here it goes
Bills trade their #1 (9) and Whitner to Philly for their #1 (24) their #2 from Washington (37) # and their #3 (70)
1. Charles Brown LT
2a Linval Joseph, 3-4 DE
2b Vladimir Ducasse OG/OT
3a Jason Worilds OLB
3b. Torell Troup NT
4. Brandon Spikes ILB
5. Anthony Dixon RB
6a Scott Long WR
6b, 7a,7b, traded to Washington for Jason Campbell
Too many projects.
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I don't think so. This staff understands WINNING puts butts in the seats.
Actually, it doesn't. We've filled the stadium all of the time over the last 10 years without a winning philosophy.
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TE Tony Scheffler to the Lions, LB Ernie Sims to the Eagles, Undisclosed pick to Denver per Adam Schefter
And, we care because?
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Reaches are only reaches when the player doesn't live up to expectations. If he does, then it's a shrewd move...
Couldn't have said it better. A player is a reach when the player doesn't perform.
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yeah look who I picked in the 5th if we don`t take Spiller in the 1st. Horrible draft by some ?
We don't need a waterbug guy on this team as a round 1-4 option. Pickup up Trinton Holliday. The guy is 5'5 and 160 sopping wet, but the guy runs about a 4.25. Bring him in four 3-5 plays per game just to keep the defense honest. He can be picked up in the 7th round or after the draft.
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It compared him to Pat White...that doesn't sound too flattering. But you never know...
When I see him, I see "great athlete." He is the poor man's version of Tim Tebow having played at a lesser named collegiate football program.
Yeah...Kordell Stewart, Pat White, "Option Quarterbacks", come to mind.
If the Bills are sold on this college "pistol" offense, then sure, I'd take him in the 5th round, but otherwise, I would pass.
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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/...e-is-available/
If it could happen would you guys want to?
Uhhhh...no!
LenDale White was great in college for one of the better college teams of the last 20 years, but Lynch is much more valuable than a 1-2 yard plunger that gets 3-5 handoffs a game and gets 11 yards.
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Rules:
1) I will post a complimentary haiku in your honor. Suitable for framing.
2) You have to remind me if you win via resurrecting this post. PMs not accepted. I won't record, compile, track, or otherwise go out of my way for anyone that bothers to respond to this thread, so it's up to your innate sense of fair play.
3) First post, first served. Come the end of this extended draft extravaganza, post if you win. Ye shall publicly, eloquently, be praised.
Answer: Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green, 1st of the two 7th round picks
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mcgee, mckelvin, florence in the nickel, youbuty, corner as backups
That is it. Nothing else needs to be said about the CB position.
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Now we're talking sense - I wouldn't even have to think, I'd do this now.
I love Marshawn, but this is a move we NEED to make. We don't need two potential 1,500 yard backs on the roster, we DO need another quality, young player.
We have way too many holes to fill, and in a deep draft that second rounder could be gold!
Did you say two potential 1,500 yard backs?
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Todd McShay was on ESPN radio today talking about how odd the OT's are in this draft and how they are ranked.
He mentioned that people he has talked to say Trent Williams is the most talented OT in this draft, but he does have a history of weight issues and isn't very dedicated (stays up late) and doesn't play with fire. He said that Davis is extremely talented, but all he has heard from coaches, and people in the industry is that he isn't a hard worker. He never worked hard at Rutgers and many football people think this personality may translate to the NFL.
McShay also said that Okung is solid but nothing spectacular. He can play both sides and has the character and work ethic to show no concerns for his ability to be solid in the NFL. He said Bulaga has been well-coached, but he is a solid RT in this league that should be slotted at the end of the 1st round or early 2nd. But, OT is such a critical position that teams will naturally reach for such a coveted position.
Campbell was also listed as an unknown. He's built perfectly to be a LT and had great workouts, but he is very raw, but he has the size, arm length, and body that intrigues personnel people.
According to McShay...
Talent:
1. Trent Williams
2. Anthony Davis
3. Russell Okung
4. Bryan Bulaga
Stability or Lack of Concerns
1. Okung
2. Bulaga
3. Williams
4. Davis
Does this change your opinion about the 1st round pick or the OT's?
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I wouldn't mind if the Bills took Ginn.
I'll take him for a seventh round choice in 2015.
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Welcome to the posting world, CSBill.
Clausen isn't my favorite choice, but I do think he is the best person for the Bills at #9 besides a Okung or Bulaga.
The board has been filled with hopes of Gaither. I'd be happy with him for a second round pick if the Bills already have a reasonable extension lined up after a trade would occur.
I think your spot on with the fact that a quarterback and OT are major needs and Gaither would be the best option available possibly with a 2nd round pick. And, Clausen is the 2nd best quarterback in this class. He is good value at #9 if his college game translates into the NFL.
By conviction, I'm a Notre Dame hater – they represent everything that is wrong with the current system in college football.With that being said, I am slowing warming to the idea of Jimmy Clausen. When I look at him as objectively as I can, it seems all the numbers and tools are there.
Here is what I see (I hope) happening on draft day: If Clausen is not there, draft one of the big 4 OTs or Williams at NT. But if he is there, draft him and immediately trade (or draft him with this conditional trade already in place) the second round pick to the Ravens for Gaither.
It's a dream and a wish, but if this scenario were to work out, the Bills would address two major needs with essentially two top-of-draft picks (or first round picks) in this draft.
Thoughts?
P.S. I've been a reader of the Stadium Wall for years and thoroughly enjoy reading all (most) of you, it's always fun. But this is my first ever post, so be gentle.
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Our Quarterback Situation
Most of us agree that there is a mixed bag on Clausen and any other quarterback not named Bradford in this draft. Tebow is a project. Campbell is a retread and not worth a pick in Rounds 1-3. Colt McCoy will be gone before our #41 pick. And, do we really want to put our future in the hands of a guy named Skeleton or Lefevour? If Buffalo really thinks Clausen is the guy, and he's there, then go for it. Otherwise, I really don't see a need to get a quarterback this year.
Ending 2010, here is our likely quarterback situation: Fitzpatrick is gone. Edwards gets this year to prove whether he is worth keeping around in a new system or not. If Edwards fails, then Brohm is likely are new backup and has a year in the new system. No matter who we have a quarterback, this team won't be better than 8-8. An 8-8 record nets us a pick between #10-#15 in most years for 2011.
4 Talented Quarterbacks in 2011
There are four (4) talented quarterbacks available in 2011 that will likely go in the first round. There is Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, Andrew Luck, and Pat Devlin. Locker, the stud from the state of Washington, and Mallett (Arkansas) (by scouting accounts) were considered to be Top 15 talent had they come out in this draft. Luck (Stanford) and Devlin (Delaware) appear to be first round players at the QB position.
With these two premises in mind, hear me out. Buffalo can still get its future quarterback while also building its offensive and defensive lines.
Two Year Plan (2010 & 2011)
2010 Draft
#9 Pick (Buffalo trades its #9 pick (valued at 1,350) for San Francisco's #17 pick (valued at 950) and its second round pick #45 (valued at 450).
Buffalo trades this #17 pick for a 1st rounder from a team in 2011. (If it the team is perenially crappy, then the trade is straight-up.) If it is generally a playoff team, then a 1st and 3rd rounder in 2011 works.
#41 Pick Buffalo trades it's second round pick #41 and one of its 6th round picks for Jared Gaither (OT).
#45 Pick Buffalo get Cam Thomas (NT)
Buffalo now has its starting NT and a starting OT on the left side. The rest of the 2010 draft is spent filling holes at OLB/RT/DE.
2010 Season Buffalo finishes the season at 7-9 or 8-8 giving them a 1st round pick between #10-#15.
2011 Draft For Bills (Two Options)
1. Buffalo can use its two 1st Round Picks (between #10-#15) and either a top (15 1st round pick from a crappy team) or a (Bottom 1st round pick between #20-#32 and a 3rd from a playoff caliber team to draft to use to acquire Locker or Mallett. Buffalo then has a 2nd round pick and its 3rd round pick to fill needs.
2. Buffalo can get Luck or Devlin as its starting QB in 2011 in the 1st round. Then, the team
has the flexibility of filling holes at WR, RT, DE, or LB with its other 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, and two 3rd Round Picks
Conclusion of the 2010 and 2011 Two Year Plan
Give Edwards and Brohm a chance to earn the 2010 spot. Don't go after a project in LeFeveour, Brown, or Skeleton. Don't go after a retread in Bulger or Campbell.
If Edwards or Brohm succeed, great! If not, either one is a serviceable backup. The Bills will then have two 1st round picks going into a deep 2011 quarterback class. LT and NT have already been filled in 2010 with Gaither and Thomas. The Bills still have a core group of DB's in McGee, McKelvin, Florence, Byrd, Scott, and Wilson. The Bills still have Evans. The Bills have a better line with Levitre's growth and a healthier Eric Wood. The Bills have a good running back group with Jackson and Lynch. The Bills have a decent linebacker group with POZ, Davis, Maybin, and Mitchell.
The major needs in 2011 are probably quarterback, wide receiver, defensive end, outside linebacker, and right tackle. With two 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick, and the possibility of two 3rd round picks, Buffalo fills the gaps in the 2011 draft with young talent in those areas.
Gailey fills in other holes with mid-level free agents in the 2011 offseason.
The Bills become a playoff contending team again in 2012 by following a similiar plan!
Go Bills!
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lee evans is far and away your best player on offense.....he is considered a top 10 receiver in all of football.....he is worth two number ones draft picks......at some point, it makes no sense to trade away a proven player for a possible successful draft pick.....i would keep lee evans.
This is called being a Homer or myopic. It is when a person only sees football from the perspective of a fan of their favorite team. While this is to be applauded from a loyalty standpoint, it is to be corrected when it comes to sound football thought.
Lee Evans is not a top 10 receiver in the league. He could be with solid quarterback play. Lee Evans is not worth two first round picks. He isn't worth one.
I agree with you that Lee Evans should be kept, but please go beyond your "Fandom" before you end up putting Lee Evans ahead of Jerry Rice in the Hall.
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I believe Griffen will be the best defensive player of this draft he is my pick for DROY.
I think Griffin is talented, but Buffalo should only be looking at Griffin if there is a trade down into the mid 20's; otherwise, he isn't worth a top 10 pick.
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I thought maybe we'd take a break from the mundane "Who do we take in the first round?" and "Can we get so-and-so in the 2nd?" threads and try something different in relation to the draft.
What I propose here is this: take a guess at a player that will be drafted after the 2nd round, and give me the team that will pick him (for example, if you think Tim Tebow will fall to the 3rd round and the Bills will draft him, your guess should read "Tim Tebow - 3rd - Bills").
Why would you want to do this? A couple of reasons: (1) I think it'll be fun, (2) Whomever nails the latest round pick correct (player, team, and round must be right in order to be "correct") will get a six-pack of their favorite beverage on me. If you're not a drinker or not located in the greater Buffalo area, then we'll come to some other equal terms. If nobody nails all three criteria, I reserve the right to pick a winner based on who I feel was closest to being right.
Last thing: if someone already guessed your player, team, and round, you cannot make the same guess. Honestly, there are plenty of players, teams, and rounds, so just pick something different.
So I'll start the guesswork with this:
Tony Washington - OT/Abiline-Christian - Chicago Bears - 4th round
Have fun!
Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green, Round #7 (1st of Buffalo's two 7th round picks...to Buffalo Bills)
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He simply won't last that long.
Stranger things have happened, but you take Spikes in the 4th round if this scenario is presented.
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Washington has traded for McNabb, so ClauSen will not be going there. So I have a brilliant idea for Buffalo:
Trade Lynch, Parrish and Whitner for another 1st round pick (stretch, I know...), Draft ClauSen at 9, with the other 1st rounder, via the trade, take you're Offensive tackle. Round 2: Tim Tebow.
Guaranteed to have a QB of the future one way or the other...Well, maybe....(It is Buffalo!)
Lynch may get you a 3rd rounder, but adding Parrish and Whitner to the deal probably takes it to a 4th.
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I see him being gone before we pick in the second round
Absolutely spot on. I guarantee it. Tebow falls somewhere between 28-36.
As for Jim Kelly being the best Bill of all-time, sorry, this title belongs to Bruce Smith.
Players in Rounds 4-7
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Obviously, the Bills still have gaping holes (as far as having quality players on the roster) at certain positions, including QB, OT, OLB, WR.
Here are players at several positions who I believe may provide "value" in Rounds 4-7. I define "value" as a player that I believe is already better or equal to a guy on the Bills roster and/or a guy that could be a starter in the next 2-3 years.
Here are my top (10) players that I would love the Bills to consider:
1. DT (Cam Thomas)
2. OLB (Eric Norwood)
3. OT (Kyle Calloway)....Please Bills...pick and OT
4. OT (Selvish Capers)....Please Bills...pick a second OT
5. WR (Riley Cooper)
6. OLB (Larry Hart)
7. TE (Dennis Pitta)....Isn't a position of Need, but Nix doesn't consider "need" too often
8. OG (Joe Hawley)
9. OG (Sergio Render)
10A WR (Chris McGaha)
10B DE (Corey Wooten)
QB
Levi Brown & John Skelton (I believe both could supplant Fitzpatrick and challenge Brohm as the #2 QB; however, the statistics I presented in my previous post (about Rounds 4-7 QB's) don't justify a QB before Round #6)
Conclusion: Take Brown or Skelton in Round #6; otherwise, don't take a QB in draft
WR
Until Steve Johnson gets field time and Hardy proves he isn't an injury-prone 2nd round bust, there are three (3) guys I believe provide some value: Riley Cooper, Chris McGaha, and Freddie Barnes. I believe any one of these guys could be an upgrade at our #2 or #3 spot; however, they are competing against a weak field in (C. Jackson, Hardy, Johnson, and Parrish).
Conclusion: If the Bills trade up for an extra fourth (4th), then take Cooper; otherwise, only take McGaha or Barnes if available in Round 7.
TE
Dennis Pitta is an overall better TE than Nelson (truly a larger WR) and the rest of the roster. He is solid value at TE; however, it is not a need.
Conclusion: Take Pitta if still available in Round #5. The other guys like McCoy and Hernandez are athletic upgrades to the Bills current roster, but I wouldn't take them over need in Rounds 4 & 5 at OT/LB.
OT/OG/C Can someone explain to me why the Bills still haven't selected an offense tackle when Demetrius Bell and Green are the tackles? I almost cried after each of the Bills selections in Rounds 2-3. The Bills need at least two (preferably three offensive lineman).
Conclusion: The Bills should try and get Calloway, Capers, and either Render/Hawley. Calloway and Capers are upgrades to our current OT's. Render and Hawley serve as insurance for Wood's recovery and also provide long-snapping ability as well as experience and depth at center to Hangartner.
DT/DE
Cam Thomas (a true NT) should be a round #4 priority. You can never have too much depth, and in my opinion, Cam Thomas is an upgrade over any NT on our roster, including Troup. Corey Wooten (DE) and C.J. Wilson (DE) are worth looks at also.
Conclusion: Cam Thomas should be a round #4 pick either by the Bills selection and/or the Bills trading back in Round #4 to pick up this guy. Wooten would be solid value in Round #5. Wilson would be worth a shot as a Round 6 or 7 pick; however, DE shouldn't get as much consideration as OT/DT/OLB/WR
OLB/ILB: Eric Norwood is an upgrade and Larry Hart could either be a starter or a quality player on the roster. Of all the reports I've read about Hart, "has a passion for the game, competitive. Good football aptitude. Outstanding character-coachable, and humble." And, "flies up the field and makes plays."
Conclusion: You can never have too many quality linebackers. Norwood is a Round #4 value pick. I would take Hart with one of the picks in the 6th round and consider it a steal.
Safety/CB: DON'T TAKE A SAFETY OR CORNER....PLEASE DON'T DO IT.