All_Pro_Bills
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If you have no major weaknesses than drafting the 'best available' player regardless of position is a good strategy. Some teams are in that position because of years of consistent and successful approaches to the draft and free agency.
But the reality is the Bills have major holes in several critical areas that if left unaddressed will result in absolutely no improvement in wins vs. losses in 2011 and beyond. Maybe Peterson or Green are the 'best available' players at #3 when their turn to pick comes. But if you're surrending 200+ yards rushing on the ground in 1/2 of your games does it really make any logical sense to not address that area with an impact player at the top of round 1?
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I'd like to take the optimistic view and believe that maybe the guy surprises us and turns it around. This team could really use an unexpected positive surprise for once. But it doesn't seem like the most likely outcome here.
I have to admit I don't follow college football that closely and I'm no expert on draft prospects. Not sure if anyone else had similar thoughts, but when the Bills drafted Maybin and I heard that Lavar Arington was one of his close 'advisors' it raised a red flag to me. If I recall, Arington had a lot of 'potential' too but never played to that potential. Rather than buy into the scheme or philosophy of the coaching staff he choose to do a lot of freelancing which put him on the outs with several teams.
Maybe the 'birds of a feather' this guy should be avoided theory at work here? Too bad the Bills couldn't have done a little creative thinking prior to the selection. And if Dick really insisted on the pick then you've got to question the value of an Ivy League education.
The best approach may be, lesson learned, cut your loses and move on here.
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Untrue.....I will also give Marcel the "stud" rating.
Maybe your definition of stud is different then mine. When I think of a STUD in the NFL it isn't the guy getting all the big stats and accolades every week on defense....it is the guy who wins his battles....game in and game out....and allows say a linebacker to be uncovered and make that needed tackle.....then that linebacker gets hurt....and his backup comes into the game and HE MAKES THAT NEEDED TACKLE.....why? Not because he is as good or better then linebacker number 1 its because he is allowed to be in a position to make a play and he makes it BECAUSE the big boy in front of him is controlling the line of scrimmage game in and game out.
People get so worked up into their porsche, and ferrari positions that they forget the games are WON IN THE TRENCHES.......those guys are hard to find....this makes MARCEL A STUD.......oh and by the way....I keep hearing the talk of "ceiling" this word sounds a lot like "potential"......do you know what those words mean? THEY MIGHT GET THAT GOOD OR THEY MIGHT NOT......
Give me the sure thing at 3. The only reason why i would like to trade down is I think we might be in a position to still get Darius and gain another 2nd rounder....which I would put at DL or LB
+1
Given the Bills plight they need to draft performance over potential. I'd rather have a guy that has a high probability of being very good based on observed on the field performance than a player who MIGHT be great based on somebody's subjective opinion. And in the Bills case a subjective opinion that has been wrong way too often this decade. Use the later rounds if you want to draft project players or reach for potential.
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this is a thoughtful, well written piece. so, i'm just waiting for the potshots at the author to start...anytime now.
but the point that "if modrak's position is so impotent then why doesn't he leave" is valid. if he's as good as wilson believes he is, he should be able to land at a decent organization with the deference and acknowledgement that should be accorded his talent. yet some posters here seemed soothed by the original article reporting wilson's reaffirmation of modrak. diceasare's response is the appropriate one.
Gotta agree. If you're hired to do a job and your work is continually ignored by management, then you either tune out or get out. You don't stick it out for 10 years busting your ass to do an A1 job because there's no point. So I don't buy the de-linkage between poor scouting and poor drafting.
The lack of identify is a compelling point. When you think about what kind of team the Buffalo Bills are what comes to mind first? I've seen mock drafts that have the Bills taking Green or Peterson. Both look like solid players. But you've also got to look at your weaknesses. IMO, the Bills #1 problem is stopping the run. How does picking either player help you stop the run? The Pats and Jets have run all over the Bills the past two seasons (Jets have rushed for over 1,000 yards in 4 games). How does a WR or CB help fix that problem? Sure you can address it later, just like they've addressed the offensive line problem in the later rounds for years. How's that approach worked out?
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Once again a top 5 QB is going to win the Super Bowl. Having a great defense is nice, but it would take the Bills a really long time to build one, at least two or three drafts where they hit on very high percentage of drafted defenders.
Also, it's not really as necessary as having a great QB. The Saints and Colts defenses that won Super Bowls weren't all that great. But it's been a long time since a mediocre or even good QB has won one. NFL rule changes continue to increase the advantage that offenses have every year. IMO, the 2002 Bucs and 2000 Ravens could not win the Super Bowl today.
The Bills should tank the 2011 season for Andrew Luck.
The question is do you have confidence the Bills are going to correctly evaluate the QB draft class and select the right guy? The top 5 QB that's going to lead this team to the playoffs and the Super Bowl for the next decade? I do not, therefore I'd rather they select one of the blue chip defensive lineman in this draft where picking an impact starter is more likely.
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Yes it was the crowd. Half the tremor was caused by them wildly jumping up and down as Lynch sealed the win by "Beast Moding" over the Saints. The other half of the tremor was caused by the fans laughing hysterically at the fact Buddy Nix traded the former number 12 overall pick in the draft, still in his mid-20's, for a measly 4th round draft pick in April's draft.
How hard will the laugh when he breaks the NFL personnal conduct policy for the 3rd time and sits out a full season?
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Now watch San Fran trade up to the number one spot before Luck makes his final decsion and then Luck miraculously desides he wants to play in the NFL next season after all.
The questions is will Harbaugh's decisions to leave Stanford for the Pro's cause Luck to re-evaluate his decision to stay in college? I suspect the answer is no but there's always the possiblity of changing your mind when $50 million is on the table.
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With how bad this OL is, the worst thing the Bills could do is rush their QB of the future into the lineup. As much as I have been ranting that Fitz isn't the answer at QB for the Bills, he certainly isn't the team's biggest problem. And more to the point, he offers the Bills a great opportunity to draft their franchise QB and let him develop on the sidelines for a season or two like Rodgers and Rivers.
I understand exactly what you're saying and agree an upgrade at QB needs to be addressed, at some point. But the implication is this team drafts yet another 1st rounder that rides the bench and contributes nothing on the field in year 1. Given the Bills situation IMO, that's unacceptable. This team can't stop the run, can't pressure the QB, and the offensive line needs upgrades at the tackle position (and others mentioned TE) to even be considered competitive next season.
The defensive front 7 is dreadful and a few potential elite players that can assist in resolving the problem are staring you right in the face at the top of round 1.
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A QB can only be a Franchise QB AFTER they demonstrate success at the Pro level. Since none of the potential draftees have a single down of professional football experience its hard to say any of them are the real deal. Maybe all 4 top QB prospects turn out to be great pro's or maybe none of them. More likely something in between. I haven't gathered any statistics but I suspect there's just as many 1st round QB busts as there are guys that turn out to be 'Franchise QB's'.
The problem with the draft is you're not sure what you're going to get. The Bills have a high 1st round pick and must select an impact player, whatever the position. If they go defense or offense he's got to be a playmaker. He's got to dominate his opponent, win the one-on-one battles, and make plays, not ride the bench like many of the Bills recent 1st rounders. He's got to enable the offense to put points on the board or keep the opposition from doing the same.
I'm no draft expert but I do know if you can't stop the run, rush the passer, and protect you're own QB it really doesn't matter who you have at the QB position. Drafting a franchise QB given the current state of the Bills would be like putting a professional NASCAR driver in a Yugo for the Daytona 500 and expecting a 1st place finish. Getting a great QB will lead to more victories only if you've got the support system and an above average team around him to succeed.
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The coaches also need to be careful what they say so not to upset the Vegas book makers. The last spread I saw was the Bills getting 1 point. What would it be if the Jets needed the game? Maybe 8? If gamblers know the Bills are going to play their starters, the Jets are playing their backups plus the Jets have nothing to play for that would seem like a good bet from a risk/reward perspective.
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What's frustrating about that pick is that it's not just hindsight. At the time, 99% of Bills' fans wanted Ngata, nearly all of the mocks had us taking Ngata, and the Bills had an urgent need for a great DT like Ngata. Just a bizarre decision to pass on him; it defied all levels of common sense.
Absolutely true.
When the Bills were on the clock and Ngata was on the board I couldn't believe it. The guy we 'need' is still on the board and we are going to get him! Then the pick, Donte Whitner. Again I couldn't believe it.
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My favorite Belichick coachspeak was when we were playing them a couple years ago, and he included in our list of "potent receiving threats" Justin Jenkins. C'mon, Bill, don't just read the names in the media guide and say you're worrying about them.
It gets kind of comical listening the him and watching his facial expressions, if you've seen his routine on video. Guess no reporter has responded, 'Come on Bill, your team has beaten these guys what? 21 of the last 22 games or something like that? You're leading the conference and while they've won 4 of 6 their still a 4-10 team You can't seriously expect to come in here and leave with a loss'.
Much of what he says about the opponent is also meant for his team. Because the true champion never takes any opponent lightly. Your mindset needs to be that you're always playing from behind, you're the underdog and complacency plus overconfidence, along with conceit are a fatal combination of traits to avoid.
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Modrak just scouts and makes reports and recommendations based on what he has seen. Two years ago he was very high on Cushing, but DJ and Co. pushed for Maybin.
There is only so much Modrak can do. He isnt in charge of making the actual picks.
I understand what your saying, he presents information to the decision makers and they make the final decision.
The question is what is the quality of the scouting assessment? Not sure how we can know the answer to that question without being present during the evaluation. All we know for sure is the end result of the process which is the actual draft choices. However, I cannot envision a situation where a scout's superior judgement is consistently being overruled by a higher ranking member of the management team which then turns into drafting the wrong guy year after year...
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Withholding judgement until I see a game where he gets 9 or 10 carries and doesn't get hit 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage by half the defense on every play. That said, its clear that FJ has learned how to run with these conditions, Spiller has yet to develop that skill.
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All great points althought I still think they need to address the front 7 on defense in the coming draft/free agency. Still this team, players and coaches alike, has come light years since the first couple weeks of the season. At the onset of the season I thought this was a 3 year plan to become competitve. After the past 6 weeks I now believe it might be next year vs. 2012 assuming they are able to seriously address the deficiences in the offseason.
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More than a poor choice of words it was a poor choice of communication medium. If they just called each other nobody would be the wiser about their conversation. The problem is almost everything said now is out on the public domain. So these guys need to be a little more aware of what they say and where they say it.
Along with that we as a society have become overly sensitive about everything. It might come as a revelation to a lot of folks but you don't have to like and approve of everything other people do or say. All I ever hear lately is somebody crying the blues about being 'offended'. I get offended too but I just deal with it, move on and don't make a felony case out of what somebody might say or do that has absolutely nothing to do with me personnally.
What I find most puzzling about all the PC police is how they preach constantly about diversity and tolerance but then they turn out to be the most intolerant of others. Their objective is to control everyone's thoughts and actions vs. truly being respectful and diverse.
People on this board might agree or disagree with me, but that's just the way things go.
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The O-line has been a surprising area of improvement over the past month. They still have trouble with picking up some basic defensive line stunts but that should come in time as the unit works together and improves coordination and communication that can only come from experience. Overall, a positive. Adding some starting talent and bench strength to the tackle position next offseason should be a priority.
Offensive statistics since the bye week point to improvement with 3rd down conversion rate, number of offensive snaps, yards gained, and time of possession.
O-line improvement may be the single largest contributor to the incremental improvements in the defense too. Instead of being totally gassed by the 4th quarter the D is getting more than a few minutes of clock-time between series.
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I would expect a rebuilding team to feature their rookies (1st-3rd rounders) more than Buffalo is doing. Spiller has exactly 57 touches from the LOS this season, Troup is a rotational guy, and Carrington barely dresses. To blindly chalk that up to being rookies is idiotic and not a good sign.
This is the thing I find most troubling about the Bills current situation. As a fan I can tolerate a season or two of ineptitude if it's building for future success. The premise of rebuilding through the draft (which I support) is the players you draft are better football players than the players you have on the roster. But if your 2010 draft picks can't make it onto the field and you acknowledge your veteran players aren't good enough to produce then you're not rebuilding. All you're doing is creating the illusion of rebuilding and you're really just running in place. Going nowhere season after season.
IMO, the only great draft the Bills have had this century is the 2001 class and maybe 2009 (jury out on Maybin but that's not looking good). This team hasn't made the playoffs in 10 years, 11 now building through the draft. The way the league is structured it’s almost statistically impossible to pull that off unless you're doing something so fundamentally wrong. I do have faith in Nix/Gailey because I think they're 'real' football guys but the 2010 class has me concerned.
In retrospect, you could probably have done better than the Bills this decade by using more or less a ranked random probability system by taking Kiper's top 3 best available at the time of their pick, put their names in a hat, and pulled one out then choose that guy.
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But believe me, it is a business first and foremost to owners, FO people, coaches, players and everyone else associated with the NFL as their profession.
Successful organizations develop a balance and optimization of many objectives, business, personnal, customer satisfaction, product quality, community involvement, profitability, etc. Generally, businesses that focus on one specific goal tend to fail to deliver value to their employees, shareholders (if any), and customers. So sure, its a business but look at owners like Mark Cuban, Jerry Jones, Daniel Snyder. Personalities aside, you honestly believe our ownership has the same passion for winning as these guys?
Look what ownership changes have done to just two franchises in our division, Bob Kraft and Woody Johnson. One businessman replaced another at the top but somehow the results were different. We might argue they are simply better businessmen than the owners they replaced but I believe the extra ingredient is passion. And passion for winning is lacking at OBD.
You can argue the point that it's a business until the end of time but the basic fact is that to the fans it's not just a business. Maybe we should all treat it like it is, just like the Walmarts, Fords, etc., of the world. And if the fans viewed this like an ordinary business this team would be out of business already for selling a substandard product and sued for misrepresentation.
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The most idiotic opinion in all of sports fandom is the "They are not committed to winning" it is so childish and is reserved for the WGR airwaves!
Really after all we've experienced during the past decade, is there anyone on TBD that honestly believe winning is a priority of ownership and management?
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Fortunately, or not, these Toronto games are scheduled at a time when putting the team at a competitive disadvantage by trading home field advantage for revenue doesn't really matter. If it was a case of the team missing the playoff's by 1 game lost in Toronto I might get a little more excited about it.
I think the big loser here are Rogers, the Bills football team, and Bills fans that lose one home game. It seems highly unlikely the sponsor is recouping their investment here. If their objective it to bring the NFL to Toronto full time I can't see how this series is helping that cause. While you lose a lot of the atmosphere of a 'live' game watching on TV it just seems the place is deader than a morgue.
Whether or not these games 'help' keep the team in WNY is TBD but at this point it doesn't appear to be generating a lot of interest in the team north of the US border. Much of that I suspect has to do with 0-8. How can you blame them?
That all said, I find it impossible to disagree with posters that have expressed their frustration with ownerships lack of commitment to winning and there does not appear to be any plan in place to plow the proceeds from this series into the team to improve the product. Ownership seems content to squeeze as much positive cash flow out of the franchise as possible with the least amount of investment sprinkled in with a little PR.
Bottom line: Winning is not a priority.
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We can debate the merits of Polian's specific picks and draft classes but you can't argue with results, winning. 13-3, 12-4, 14-2, and 5-2 so far this season.
The decision to fire Polian and side with one of the finance guys was probably the biggest of many blunders perpetrated by our owner. That decision just points out where the real power in the organization was, is, and will be until ownership changes hands.
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Unfortunately I think this is a purely academic exercise. A problem with no solution.
I watched the 30 minute 'shortcut' replay of the game last night. They show more or less every play. IMO, after watching that, there is no way to stop the run with this set of players. The Chiefs had 45 rushing attempts for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. I can count on one hand the number of plays where the Bills D held the point of attack of got any penetration on the play. On most plays they were blown off the ball, as a group, 3 or 4 yards past the line of scrimmage.
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They could reference the lean years by showing Eddie Robinson getting 'deked' and LB Chris Kelsay getting spun around like a top.)
+1
Forgot about that one, the elusive Chad Pennington putting the moves on Eddie and walking into the endzone. One of the low points of the Williams era produced by the 'coach on the field'.
Equally sad was seeing Kelsay, who is described as a 'leader', getting singled up and manhandled out of the play by a TE. Something that struck me as pitiful yet humorous at the same time from yesterday's game.
Bills Mentioned In CBA - Let The Truth Be Known
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
True the Packers are 'publicly' owned but the shares cannot be traded and are priced at a constant rate. I recall seeing it was $200 per share whatever that comes out to in market capitalization I don't know.
I always suspected the reason the NFL would not allow teams to become publicly traded entities is because that would require them to file SEC disclosure and reporting documents. So that would publicly reveal the true revenue and profit numbers for the team. From what I've seen revenue/profit figures for each team are forensically produced by various fiancial (like Forbes) and sports media but not provided directly by the league or the teams. Management/Ownership guards this information closely and certainly doesn't want the players union to know the true and exact financial state of each franchise, much less the public. If the public found out the true profit level of these teams you'd probably see extreme levels of pushback when it comes to publicly financing stadiums and sweetheart revenue deals. Taxpayers would know for sure how they're gettng ripped off by rich owners.
Given these are 'private' companies or sole proprietor owned they are under no obligation to disclose their finances to anyone other than the IRS. And private tax filing statements, like you and I file, are not publicly disclosed by the agency.
That said, I'd hate to see the NFL go the way of MLB. Every year you've got the Yankees and a couple other teams out trying to buy the world series in the offseason with the rest of the teams just along for the ride. How anyone can be a Pirates or Royals fan (plus several other teams) is something I can't figure.