thebandit27

I don't believe that Ducasse belongs in anyone's lineup, nor do I think that he's one of their 9 best OLmen right now. If he ends up playing a meaningful role on the OL for this team, then the unit is in trouble. The point isn't that they should've known what they were going to do come draft day, but rather that they shouldn't have been in a rush to sign competition for the WR4 and OL9 spots when there seems to always be depth players available in June. Ducasse was an awful signing regardless. And see above for my overarching point

I actually like it as well--I just meant the trade-ups it made overpaying for Holmes and Ducasse (and at the expense of a 3rd round comp pick) look worse IMO

Both are getting more than $1M per, and both will cost additional cap space to cut prior to Week 1. Bad moves IMO; trading up to get Zay and Dawkins made those two moves even worse as well.

My only problem with crediting the staff with patience and discipline is that they moved waaaaaaay too quickly to sign fringe NFL players like Ducasse and Holmes.

I know the family a bit from sports growing up in Amherst, so obviously, no, I don't hate him. FWIW, all 5 kids were excellent hockey players as well

I have my moments

Basically, yes. The only thing we disagreed about was whether quality or quantity of targets governs

What??? You posted the 10 highest targeted players. The correlation I speak of is between target quantity and productivity. You debated that point with a tangential correlation between target quantity and presence of a franchise QB. Yes, obviously teams with better QBs will throw the ball more. This was never in question, nor does it address the discussion point in any way whatsoever. The better counterpoint to make would be to illustrate that the WRs without a franchise QB that DO receive more targets do not accumulate more statistical output than those with a franchise QB that have fewer targets. Of course, I don't think that's the case, so perhaps my issue isn't with the facts at all, yes?

A fact that misses the point. The correlation with production for WRs is quantity of targets, as evidenced by Hopkins and Robinson from your post. It's also been evident from Watkins and Taylor's performance in 2015. Watkins' targets increased dramatically in the final 9 weeks, and his numbers were arguably best in the NFL over that span.

Strictly looking at the historical correlation between targets and production, and taking into account the respective passers involved, it appears to be far more dependent upon quantity than quality. That's why guys like Allen Robinson and Brandon Marshall show well.

Absolute no brainer to bring him in IMO Speed threat that can play on the boundary or in the slot and offers more of what Tyrod likes: big play potential. Sammy-Maclin-Zay would be quite a formidable '11' set; with Clay and Shady on the field as well, that gives the D a LOT to account against

Well, meaning no offense, I can't put any stock into your (or anyone else's) guarantees. Regardless, what that says to me is that you don't believe he'll get the necessary targets, which is reasonable IMO. I'll only say that IF he gets 8-10 targets per game, I expect that he'll finish in the top 10 WRs in both yards and TDs. I think you mean "hear hear".

As I said, numbers close to that would be expected

Then you aren't paying attention. His per target production portends numbers quite close to those that you call insane.

Sounds like Greg Bell

He was awful in SO's, but he finished 10th in the NHL in save percentage; he's hardly the team's biggest issue.

it's actually the other way around. Prior to Sammy's return to the lineup against Jacksonville (recognizing that he was dressed, but unable to actually play up to any reasonable level in weeks 1 and 2), Shady averaged less than 4.1 YPC in 5 of 9 games, and only had 1 game with more than 4 receptions. Starting with Sammy's return against Jacksonville (a game in which he immediately showed his big play ability), Shady averaged less than 5.3 YPC in only 2 out of 6 games--the slop-fest in the snow against Pittsburgh and the run-for-the-bus-season-finale against the Jets; he also caught 6 or more passes in 3 of those 6 games. Make no mistake, Sammy's presence sets things up for McCoy at least as much as McCoy does for Sammy.

LB in general is a concern for me, John. I think Hodges is a good fit to play the Will, but aside from that, I have reservations. I've never been a huge Ragland guy, and I think he'd need to come back 100% and drop some weight to play the Mike effectively in this defense. LorAx, IMO, is a better fit as a situational pass rusher than as a de facto Sam, but it's possible that the amount of nickel and big nickel they plan to play will keep his snaps as a stand-up LB limited enough that he can play the role. Depth is less of a concern, since I think guys like Preston, Humber, Vallejo and Milano could fill in for a game or two and not get to utterly killed.

You also didn't read my response with the link--the data was a year old. And if you can read all of the context surrounding performance per opportunity and still think Sammy is a bust, then I'm not sure you're looking at the player with anything other than a jaded viewpoint

Someone make sure Blokes is okay...

Welcome to 36! I celebrated your 36th with an utterly unrecognized deadlift PR if it makes you feel any better At least I got a blocked punt on the opening series from Jerry Hughes on my 36th

Some interesting stuff from Cover 1... https://twitter.com/Cover1Bills/status/869983418993528839 https://twitter.com/Cover1Bills/status/840181578307375105 ^ comparing Poyer's role to Kurt Coleman

Here's a bit more context to warp your head around: http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/

Some of your numbers are incorrect. Sammy's YPT is 8.94 (Julio's is 9.73, OBJ's is 8.96, Brown's is 8.74--these are all per each player's career stats at ESPN.com) http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/16725/sammy-watkins http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/13982/julio-jones http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/16733/odell-beckham-jr http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/13934/antonio-brown Also, I'm not sure catch rate is a relevant statistic given that it's highly dependent upon the QB's accuracy. A better metric would be drop percentage IMO. For this, I used Sporting Charts, and went back to 2014 (the first year that Sammy and OBJ were in the NFL): https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2014/ Year Watkins Julio OBJ Brown 2016 3.9 2.3 3.6 1.3 2015 3.1 3.0 3.2 1.0 2014 3.1 3.1 1.5 2.8 So in actuality, we have a YPT that ranks right among the elite, and a drop percentage that is quite similar as well. You're using opinion to try to buttress this argument. If we're to look only at data and not make suppositions, then we would very clearly see that Sammy's target share increased dramatically once he became outspoken about his lack of use (i.e. he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015). If we're using your argument, would the claim be that he suddenly learned how to get open during that time frame, but was unable to do so otherwise? You're smart enough to know that that argument doesn't hold water.

The only difference between the times he's looked utterly unstoppable and the times he hasn't has been a focus (or lack thereof) on making him the primary weapon in the passing game. The target numbers bear it out.