JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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8 minutes ago, Orlando Buffalo said:
You can't go after a QB on an interception. It is because guys used to go light up QBs when they could.
QB chasing the ball carrier for 30 yards vs stationery in the pocket watching the play and getting lit up. Can't be the same.
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Horrible to break the huddle that late on the road on such a crucial play. That's not on Stroud.
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ESPN out before we even know the spot for first down
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The hidden value of sack avoidance.
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22 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:
It wasn't an emotional letdown game as much as a preseason game. By that point the Bills were essentially locked in at #2 seed, and were NOT going to open the playbook and lay down film for playoff opponents. Hardly anyone was getting open anywhere, Brady didn't really run anything to attack the Pats that wasn't already on film already. The previous month they'd be going all-out toward first the division title (SF game) and #1 seed. After the Rams loss and Lions win and KC continuing to somehow not lose, the final 3 games became irrelevant - and the Bills still won till they fully emptied the bench Week 18.
Lamar's passing EPA was better which is the only stat that's important for QB's unless you are a running QB in which case the combined EPA is very important unless unless you're Lamar Jackson and your running EPA isn't very good in which case it's not important at all.
Got it. Makes sense now. Obviously the Bills lean on Cook and Josh to run it in when close. I think I hear people say that Lamar's EPA/play is higher. Maybe people are just puking out mangled facts
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23 minutes ago, zow2 said:
There's a whole bunch of metrics and analytics to mull over, but I don't know how in depth the voters go. The whole MVP debate/narrative shifted to Lamar in week 16. That's the day Josh didn't do much against New England and Lamar threw 3 TD's, 1 int vs Pittsburgh (while Henry ran 24 for 162). For whatever reason, all the brilliance that Josh Allen showed in the previous 8 game stretch was thrown in the trash after that NE emotional letdown game (the week after the big Detroit win).
If Lamar wins MVP, it's because of week 16.
Yeah I get that but EPA is one that is frequently cited and according to the reference I found, Josh led in total EPA and EPA/play. So maybe consumers of football analytics can explain to me why this conflict of facts exists.
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6 minutes ago, zow2 said:
It sure would be something if Allen and the Bills smoke the Ravens, and then Lamar wins a 3rd MVP.
Yes. The sequence would be 1) Josh balls out 2) Ravens lose 3) NFL awards ceremony Lamar wins MVP 4) Lamar has to go onstage to accept. Forever awkward scene which would be something for sure.
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Ok. I have heard it said by many sources, from Mina Kimes to Joe Marino, when they have weighed in on MVP or QB comparisons, that Lamar leads in EPA. Maybe it's the stat source or some twisted semantics of the English language, but this would need some explaining.
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Jordan Burroughs.
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8 hours ago, mannc said:
On his podcast last week, Chris Simms, who is an MVP voter, said that Lamar is going to be the MVP, based on his having been voted first team All-Pro. I don’t know how much of an overlap there is between the MVP and All-Pro voters, but Simms probably does, and he was convinced, even though he hinted that he voted for Josh.
The one I saw had Florio make that point and Simms agreed with him. But, I could see that if a voter was really torn about the evaluation, they might split their votes along those lines. Josh more valuable in elevating his team to a more successful season and Lamar with the more spectacular production in the scope of his team's success. Historically, split votes don't seem like a thing but when faced with a historically tough choice, I could see several voters opting for that approach.
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There is a traffic light at the ECC exit onto Southwestern Drive that is controlled by a sheriff deputy. There are two other ECC exits onto Big Tree heading west and there are two left turn options off of Big Tree that get you headed toward Hamburg and would let you avoid the traffic light at the intersection with Southwestern. .
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14 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:
Yep, they decided it was either draft B. Chubb or trade the pick to the Bills. They never considered drafting a 1st round QB that year because Case was their QB.
I thought they were still letting the Paxton Lynch cycle play out.
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24 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:
Well the NFC hosted an AFC team this year for the "17th game" that was added to the schedule. These are matched up as teams of the same divisional finish from the prior year. I know home field is not a big enough advantage to account for all of that difference but it might account for some of that as well some of the AFC advantage last year.
Ok. Not a big source. NFC won those 17th game home matchups, 9-7.
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Well the NFC hosted an AFC team this year for the "17th game" that was added to the schedule. These are matched up as teams of the same divisional finish from the prior year. I know home field is not a big enough advantage to account for all of that difference but it might account for some of that as well some of the AFC advantage last year.
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Four A-10's in the flyover and Kyle for the Legend of the Game honors. Seems like a match.
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7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
Considering Highmark Lot 1 for first time this week. Usually park at ECC because we Northtowners avoid traffic by using the route along the River and Lake.
Leaving Lot 1 which empties onto Big Tree, will we be allowed to turn RIGHT (heading west, instead of most people who will turn left and head east towards 219) onto Big Tree and then cross Abbott to continue on to Southwestern? I'm not sure how what traffic pattern restrictions we might run into.
Thanks, fam.
Can't make a right turn leaving lot 1. I think you were doing well at ECC but the new stadium construction site has messed with the foot traffic considerably.
My suggestion would be to consider parking at Bert's Bikes. There is a traffic light there and it's controlled by a county sheriff deputy. Making a right turn puts you headed SW on Southwestern Drive (go figure) and a right turn at the the blinking yellow by Tops puts you headed east on Big Tree. This may be largely what you have been doing all along which is smart. It's the post game traffic equivalent of a naked bootleg. I usually head home to the Jamestown area but have used that route to get to the airport by ASAP by driving to route 5 and then through downtown which is mostly empty on a Sunday.
I suspect you wanted to shorten your walk for whatever reason. There are places along Southwestern that can put you closer and still give you the same option out but many are not paved and pedestrian traffic complicates it, imo.
23 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:I think you'll want to turn left and head toward the 219 Northbound. A right turn puts you into the teeth of the traffic monster post game. Of course that depends how soon you plan on leaving. Wait too long and you'll be caught in a traffic jam. But you could go Southbound on 219 instead and make a big loop toward Route 5 from there.
Also I thought you had to pre-buy stadium lot parking at the start of the season? Will they allow you into lot 1?
I think post season games are a new deal, but, yes, would still need the parking pass, I do believe.
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3 hours ago, Doc said:
His Combine run was very awkward. He probably really runs in the mid 4.6s.
That Forrest Gump running style goes away when he is carrying a football. Should have run the combine 40 that way.
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Things I remember about Cribbs.
1) Played at Auburn in a backfield with James Brooks and William Andrews who were decent NFL backs as well.
2) Left the Bills to play in the USFL for the Birmingham Stallions.
3) The mattress commercial was pretty funny.
4) The Chuck Knox era of Bills football was the first one that I could appreciate as a fan. Those were fun teams for a brief time.
Something I did not know. Pro Football Reference credits him with 28 fumbles in his first two years. That number seems impossibly high and I can't believe Chuck Knox would have put up with it. It's a wonder that he made it to year 3 and that it didn't stain his legacy as a RB. In general, there were many more fumbles back then but Cribbs rookie year total of 16 is the record.
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I have wondered if the article Dunne published last year after the Eagles game made any sort of change in the way Sean does his job. Some of those incidents described within it made Sean look like a jerk and I doubt Sean wants to present himself that way. But, imo, those obsessed with winning and that are stressed about every little detail that could get them beat, truly do look like jerks to the normal world. He might have seen the reflection in the mirror and decided to change some of the things he saw.
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1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:
Just to break down the stats as well, as many are backing Lamar over that.
Lamar: 4172 yards from 1074 snaps (3.88 yards per snap)
Josh: 3731 yards from 968 snaps (3.85 yards per snap)
Lamar: 45 total touchdowns from 1074 snaps (0.042 TDs per snap)
Josh: 41 total touchdowns from 968 snaps (0.042 TDs per snap)
And, to be fair...
Lamar: 9 turnovers from 1074 snaps (0.008 turnovers per snap)
Josh: 8 turnovers from 968 snaps (0.009 turnovers per snap)
I wish someone would point this out. What Lamar has done is extraordinary, no one can deny it. But given the opportunity, Josh was on track to do practically the same thing.
To refine the bolded since math may be different here in the US:
Lamar = 9/1074 = .00838 TO/snap or 119.3 snaps / TO
Josh = 8/968 = .00826 TO/snap or 121.0 snaps / TO which truly is practically the same thing.
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One play of note, he had a chance to get a scrambling Milton in the open field short of a first down and gave him a glancing blow that allowed him another 6 yards or so before he went down. But, Milton has a very Josh Allen like athletic profile and we know that Josh usually beats the LB in that situation too.
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3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
I actually don’t think Mike Florio is too far off. How else do we explain Lamar Jackson receiving 49 out of 50 1st place votes last year?The lone voter who did not vote for Lamar cast his first place vote for Josh Allen. I recall he received a lot of heat from other media members because of that.
That was Aaron Schatz formerly of Football Outsiders. Josh led in DVOA and was near to Dak Prescott and he is the creator of that metric. He went so far as to say that the impact of Josh's ints was atypically less than the raw number would indicate due to the context of where and when they happened. He took some crap last for his lone vote and, in a manner of being consistent which I can respect, I would suggest that he will probably vote for Lamar this year.
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9 minutes ago, Stretch said:
Thanks for the link, it was a good review. I really liked the stat about 39% of Ravens WRs being wide open within seconds of the snap on throws, far and away the most in the league. The stats really are so close, with Lamar barely ahead. But if you watch the games, it does seem like Allen made more of the big-time throws in important games. And it is hard to see voting going against what it has been for the past decade or more, the best QB on a top 2 seed wins the MVP.
I liked the discussion as well but I have no prior opinion about Mayes and Classon's work. The part I can buy into is the discussion about the sacks. I think sack avoidance is an underrated part of Josh's game. Something that is of an elite level especially given his tendency to hold the ball. One of those two called it Peyton Manning level of sack avoidance.
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9 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:
First Super Bowl game would be a decent reasonCertainly the best of all. My sense is that Josh is somewhat disdainful of the Pro Bowl. This might be due to previous snubs, or the lingering disappointment of a playoff loss and needing to step away from football or a having a beat up body that wants nothing more demanding to do than swinging a golf club at the Pro/Am. We have discussed this before at TBD so I know I am not the only one that thinks this.
Does Mahomes really get preferential treatment from officials?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Josh takes a borderline hit and embellishes its effect on him so that the referee will feel the pressure to drop the flag. He will also hold the ball to the last possible moment where the hit is immanent but he can still release the ball cleanly, thus creating a borderline hit. Very rare for Josh to take a hit that he did not see coming but he chooses not to avoid many of them at the cost of missing the play. Mastering QB time and space.