JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
That's a bad stat, however, be good to know if it means games that were 1 score at the time of the turnover or 1 score games at the end?
Over the last 3 years, the Bills have not played many games that ended within one score so it has to be related to game situation. I would look at this more in terms of 4th quarter/OT turnovers in one score games. That's more of what they might have been trying to measure.
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21 hours ago, LabattBlue said:
The teams don’t care about the pending civil suit, but Ariaza should. You know her lawyer will be after every penny of his contract regardless of the validity of accusation.
I think teams care about PR, optics and distractions. So, my thinking is that there is still potential crap to come from a civil trial that could hurt Matt's employment status and a 6th round punter is not worthy of a team suffering any media mayhem. I think teams do care, just surprised that the Jets don't see a risk here.
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I suspected that the pending civil suit would prevent any team from signing him at this point. There could be details that come from it which might lead to a bad PR situation at the very least. Different rules for 6th round punters vs. franchise QBs and all was my thinking. So it is interesting to me that the Jets are giving him a shot now even though that means I was wrong.
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I think about 15% of home game attendance/ST holders are from across the border. They love the tailgate scene as much as we do and they pretty much rejected the Bills in Toronto series because they would rather spend their money to attend games here. Overpriced tickets without a decent party involved was a hard sell. That's why a big part of the rooting interest was in whomever the Bills played there. At least that is how I remember Canadian fans explaining it in a thread here at TBD from years ago.
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He had a more than trivial presence in 70s/80s TV and movies too. RIP, Mr. Kapp. I am getting older than I think I am too.
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Our legal system grinds out it's outcomes much too slowly to fit the timeline of a team on a Super Bowl mission. Her scumbag lawyer actually did the Bills a favor by forcing this all to come out in August rather than at some point later in the season. How much more of a circus would that have been? It certainly did his client no favor. Araiza hadn't even made much money on his contract yet.
When the video of her taken at the Halloween party from the night before came out, that was pretty much the end of any criminal charges, imo. Her lawyer's intension to pursue the civil case will fail too. The Bills had no choice but to cut him but I got the feeling that they felt that Matt was not totally truthful with them after Dan Gilleon sent them the civil suit and the details that were therein.
Good thing for those accused that everyone has a camera with them now and that they are willing to record everything they do and observe. In this case, this would amount to child pornography as she was under 18 at the time and prosecutors are even reluctant to share it with the defense.
As for the accuser, it is easy to sell victimhood to most anyone. It's what many lawyers do. She said she couldn't remember many important details that their subsequent "investigations" later revealed. She should drop the suit, apologize and blame the lawyer for the over reach. Most of we the public would accept that, I think.
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55 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:
Allen without his broad is going to be ruthless
I hope you are right. I always likened Josh's story to Roy Hobbs--an Americanized version of the Greek hero myth. This might be entering the Memo Paris and Harriet Bird stage and could take a turn for the worse. Maybe Brit was his Iris Gaines. I like your take way more.
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On 5/1/2023 at 6:39 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Levitre got walked 5 yards back by a DT on his 1st preseason snap of his career. Fans labeled him a bust from that moment on. Levitre was actually a good player.
I remember that play! DT had the palm of his hand planted on Levitre's chin. I posted something to the effect that there's a reason why a hand to the face is illegal.
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9 hours ago, MJS said:
You've seen this place at its worst and you still liked it!
I do not know if they seen the worst unless they have been in a GDT with the Bills behind.
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My view from 40,000 feet gives me reasons to have some doubts about Kincaid. He's older, entered college without a pedigree (not the biggest red flag) has had a back problem, and enough of one to the point where there were not any testing numbers for him. Those do not scream top TE or top 10 pick to me and are usually cause for a player to drop The Bills must have gotten answers on all these. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
Justin Shorter may be sneaky good. It seems like he was maybe devalued much like DK Metcalfe was for the lack of lateral movement ability. He will still be a physical mismatch for most any of those covering him. At the very least, he will present a different challenge to the Bills' DBs that cover him in practice. O'Cyrus Torrence next to Brown may become a force in the run game but many did not like his movement skills at all. Not sure about the LB. Seems small and limited. It looks like a C grade to me but I'll boost it to a B- grade with the full realization that I do not know what plans the Bills have for them or how good of a fit they will be and have earned some organizational credibility.
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I like Justin Marshall of UB who has more of an NFL body than any WR I can remember on their team. He had an outstanding pro day and talked with all the teams that attended including the Bills. Reports I have seen of his 40 time ranged from 4.39 to 4.46. He barely made a ripple on any of the NFL draft sites so he seems to be way under the radar. He played really big against MAC CBs and had a really nice season for them with 9 TDs. Reports of his height and weight are all over the place but 6' 2" and 210 lbs. seems reasonable with a VJ of 38" and 126" broad jump. Working against him is his age as he spent 5 years at Louisville and 1 at UB.
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21 hours ago, The Jokeman said:
With his height and that speed am sure he'll get drafted, am guessing Rounds 5-7.
I can see that too. His tape seems good and demonstrated good hands. But, I can't find any draft site that even mentions him as a draftable prospect. NFLDraftScout has an entry for him with none of the Pro Day numbers filled in and no draft projection. This is odd to me as the draftniks usually overdo their work, not underdo.
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On 3/16/2023 at 10:42 AM, PromoTheRobot said:
UB Pro Day live stream.
Justin Marshall looked like an NFL WR to me. This Livestream did not capture any routes but the numbers look really good. I am assuming they did them and Cole threw them. No proof of that.
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Ball spins watch the laces.
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9 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:
Well the one to Brown wasn't Josh's fault....that was all Brown that one. If Brown does what he was suppose to then that's another TD
Josh and McD both said it was on Josh as a poor decision. I wonder if they mean about where Josh chose to locate it or whether he should have targeted Brown at all. JB had trouble finding it, looking over his right shoulder then his left. The DB saw it the whole way.
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On 1/19/2023 at 7:15 PM, ExiledInIllinois said:
"Rob Roy"
[WARNING: Violent Trigger Alert]
Final duel:
Tim Roth's Archie Cunningham is a cinematic masterpiece of a villain. Whenever I saw images of Johnny Manziel I thought of Archibald. Forever connected in my brain.
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I am a numbers guy. I would like info on ball velocity, trajectory, rpm's on throws. I'd like to know "would have been good from X yards" on kicks. I'd like to know how much a ball's flight was effected by the wind. They give this kind of data for PGA tee shots and MLB home runs in real time. Give it up. Nerds want to know.
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My take is that getting the ball out quick and being quick to check it down are the preferred moves for QBs that can't be trusted, are incapable of extending plays and/or of creating anything special. As a raw score, the TO# seems high but on a per play or per "time of possession" basis, I would guess that it would look different.
Josh does expose the ball too much in a calculated way, usually while under threat of tackle (a blindside hit and a chop on an arm ready to throw is rarely not the cause of a fumble for any QB.) He has to be near the top in broken/missed tackles. That pump fake move he makes is one example and the stiff arm move is another. When he does the former he might lose the grip on the ball or maybe get splattered by a defender whom ignored the fake and with the latter, he will extend the ball away from the defender in one hand and use the other for the stiff arm attempt. These are almost reflex reaction moves that defy game situations and seeing the ball flailing around scares the curse words right out of my mouth. Josh is often the master of controlled chaos but sometimes it goes wrong. I am trying to force my fandom to accept it, if not embrace it. Just remember what the alternatives have been and it makes it easier.
Insert Russell Crowe "Are we you entertained!" gif here:
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1 hour ago, DapperCam said:
McKenzie said the play was supposed to be a run the other way and he was just a decoy.
Not sure who is right, but somebody got the playcall wrong there.
I suspect a Josh adlib. Like the pitch to Knox in the WC game vs. the Texans. Although on that play Dawson made no effort to lead for a block and trailed like the lateral was somehow a built in option.
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18 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:
Agreed. I was thinking of an analogy to baseball earlier today. Modern analytics have shown that teams actually score quite a few more runs by embracing a higher variance strategy of hitting more home runs and striking out more, which is counterintuitive to the classic strategy of having a couple power hitters and filling out the rest of your lineup with guys who will hit singles, bunt, steal bases, hit and run, etc. Old hats still consider the latter to be the "right" way to play the game but statistics show it doesn't actually work.
Of course, even within that paradigm, there come plenty of game situations where it's best not to swing for the fences. Runner on 2nd and nobody out in a tie game? Yeah, move him over to 3rd. Just like Josh probably shouldn't have thrown those two bombs down the sideline when we wanted to chew clock midway through the 4th quarter.
I agree, I am reluctant to make sweeping conclusions based on one series in the 4th quarter with a small lead. I was hoping for a sustained drive that chewed clock in that situation. Our guy went for kill shots. How many times do we see a team run, run again, throw short of the sticks and punt? The throw to Brown was put in a bad spot (misread leverage?) and Brown had difficulty tracking it over his right shoulder then his left. Beasley looked like he was wrapped up before the ball got there and could not raise his arms to make the catch. That's how they looked from section 228 anyhow.
Josh talks about McD preaching situational football to him and this is a classic instance where I bet that they had a conversation about it.
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Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips, Dean Marlowe, Bobby Hart, AJ Klein, Matt Barkley, Taiwan Jones, Cole Beasley and John Brown. Maybe I am missing someone. This seems like an unusual amount of players for a 13 and 3 team to have on their roster who were here, gone elsewhere for whatever reasons (mostly money probably) and then returned to the team. I wonder what the locker room thinks of these guys. I suspect the messages and benefit are three fold. First, if you still have something to offer and were/are a good teammate, Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott won't hesitate bringing a player back to the roster. Second, the Bills like to say "come to Buffalo and be the best version of your self." I think to varying degrees, this is true of all of these players. Their experiences at their other stops in the league did not go so well, other than getting bigger paychecks in some cases. Third, the guys on the team have to feel good when former teammates are welcomed back into their locker room.
John Brown seems like the most extreme case of this to me. He struck me as genuinely hurt that he wasn't brought back in 2021 and he only managed 3 targets and 0 catches on the three other teams he was on that year.. He probably had the most extended time off of an NFL roster before returning and had to wonder if his career was over. Also, both he and Beasley have to know that they are back on the team and getting NFL paychecks because Josh wanted them here. That seems powerful and adds extra meaning to any plays they make.
From March of 2021..........
But for Brown, he went Sirius XM Radio, stating he didn't see the move coming at all. He also stressed that he did wonder if Josh Allen played a part in his release.
"We didn't know nothing," Brown said. "You know, we weren't even given a heads up. But you know I'm a strong believer in God. I just had a feeling it was going to come to that time especially when the money dropped. I dealt with a few injuries so I missed like five games and the team went five-and-oh without me. I don't know if they gave Josh Allen Input on it. I feel him being a big-time quarterback he should've had input. If he did have input I thought he would've wanted me to stay."
That TD catch he made on Sunday had to mean more to him than most any other he has ever made and he gave the ball to Denny Kellington.
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24 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
Considering the Bills tied with the fewest 3rd down attempts in the NFL with KC at 193 this season, I think they did pretty freaking good on 1st and 2nd downs.
I love when a weak take gets carpet bombed with facts.
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13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
Yes, the Bills were #1 at 50.22% on 3rd downs. An absurd rate meaning they converted more than half of their 3rd downs to 1st downs regardless of distance. They also were far and away #1 in the NFL at converting 3rd and 10+ at something even more absurd at like40% when the average team is like 10%.
This morning on WGR, Jeremy White was speaking of the hidden turnover margin that favors the Bills. Yes, the Bills do seem to have some sloppy turnovers and are near even in turnover margin but if you consider punts as "turnovers lite," the Bills have a hidden, major turnover advantage and it's likely sourced in the 3rd and 10+ stat you cited. If it's anything like the 40/10 numbers you gave, that's why there are a whole lot of punts that were never made.
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14 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
It will be interesting what role Beasley has in the playoffs. Frustrating that he wasn't able to get called up again for one last game after only playing one serious in the Bengals game before it was called. Thought the NFL should have allowed a deviance from the protocols on that one. Felt like Beasley was going to get a lot of snaps and targets in the Bengals game to basically see what he and the offense could do BEFORE the playoffs. Now if we want to give him a high workload and "try it out" it will be in do or die game setting.
Or, if you are correct, the Bengals did not get a look at how Ken Dorsey preferred to use him and if they have the personnel matchups to cover him. So the Bills can spring it on them without them being totally prepared.
Josh Allen is number 1
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Agree. First quarter turnovers have a great chance to be in one score context. But, they are not game deciders and are far from "clutch" situations which the stat seems to imply is what is being measured.