odon59

I rewatched the safety play and Levitre missed his reach block by a mile. It was his guy the completely blew up the play. I'm neither condeming Levitre's overall play nor endorsing Bell's. It was just an observation on one play. P.S. Did anyone catch Mike Williams playing right tackle last night? What a nightmare from the past....

I understad what regressing to the mean is, buddy. You're still not providing evidence that shows the Bills d will regress to the NFL mean and not some other asymtope point. The NFL has a mean for 4th down stops, but some teams are above and some are below it. We're above it right now and may or may not stay there. But to say there WILL end of at the league mean is just ludicrous. Your logic is wrong, your statistical model is wrong, and your overall demeanor just sucks as well.

Exactly!

You seriously didn't read a word I wrote. You're assuming 4th and short stops are 50/50 league wide (which you haven't provided any data for) AND you're assuming that the Bills aren't just somehow better than the league average (which they may be).

Wow clearly you don't understand anything I wrote. Nevermind.

No actually I'm not crazy. The OP's argument was logic based, and it's flawed. I'm just pointing out the flaw.

Sorry to be negative nancy here, but your logic is really flawed. You have to either look at these events as random (coin flip), or correlated (outcomes in the past have some effect on the outcomes in the future), but you can't treat them as both at the same time. If stopping an opponent on 4th and short is random (coin flip), then even if we've stopped a disproportionately high number of them so far (e.g. lots of heads in a row in a coin flip) the outcome of any future 4th and short will still be 50/50. This is regardless of how they've done in the past because a coin has no memory. If the outcome is correlated (i.e. their defense just happens to be good at 4th and short situations), then how they've done in the past will affect future outcomes but in this case it will affect them positively. Either way, there is no mathematical model (statistical or other) that suggests the Bills can't stop another 4th and short.

Media: "With D. Bell week-to-week, are you ok with Chambers and Scott?" DJ: "Yes, I like our group" Holy f*&king s$%t!!!

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2009/09/21/b...r-out-for-year/

Terms of the deal weren't disclosed (big surprise), but Mcgee was quoted as saying ".....I'll be fine for Sunday".

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-3...ae-30b04d79b04b

Yes we've had a decade of mediocrity and Jauron is only responsible for the last 3 years. However, the common thread is bad coaching which we've gotten out of Williams, Mularkey and now Jauron. The front office is responsible for putting talent on the field, which I honestly think we have. What we need is better coaching. Just my thoughts...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...ex.html?eref=T1

I posted this on another thread and it got some positive feedback, so I thought I would share it with everyone. I want to be optimistic too, and I agree with the previous analyses about the young players performance last night. Here's the problem - most games in the NFL are close, yet some teams win consistently and others lose consistently. Guess which one the Bills are? Last night wasn't about talent, and most NFL games are not decided on talent because there is too much parity in the league. Go position by position - the pats are clear cut winners at QB, nose tackle, and probably LT. On the flip side, the Bills have better "talent" at RB and DB. A lot of the other positions are pretty much even. The difference is coaching and players playing smart football. The Pats players are COACHED to do things like rip the ball out if you're the second guy in on a tackle, and they also happen to have the presence of mind to actually do it in important situations. Likewise, Mckelvin wasn't COACHED to do the smart thing, or atleast he didn't have the football smarts to do it. He's clearly a superior athlete to the Pats return men, but his decision making was bad and it cost the Bills the game. Take the 3 close games this past weekend: Denver/Cinci, Buffalo/NE, and San Diego/Oakland. The perennial winners won and the bumbling Bills, Bengals, and Raiders lost. Coincidence? I think not. All the winning teams have superior coaching and players that play smart football. Sorry for rambling, and again I really hope the great performances of the young guys is evidence of things to come this season. But honestly, I don't think their culture of losing will change until superior coaching is brought in. It's been said before, but this past weekend really exemplified that theory.

I want to be optimistic too, and I agree with the previous analyses about the young players. Here's the problem - most games in the NFL are close, yet some teams win consistently and others lose consistently. Guess which one the Bills are? Last night wasn't about talent, and most NFL games are not decided on talent because there is too much parity in the league. Go position by position - the pats are clear cut winners at QB, nose tackle, and probably LT. On the flip side, the Bills have better "talent" at RB and DB. A lot of the other positions are pretty much even. The difference is coaching and players playing smart football. The Pats players are COACHED to do things like rip the ball out if you're the second guy in on a tackle, and they also happen to have the presence of mind to actually do it in important situations. Likewise, Mckelvin wasn't COACHED to do the smart thing, or atleast he didn't have the football smarts to do it. He's clearly a superior athlete to the Pats return men, but his decision making was bad and it cost the Bills the game. Take the 3 close games this past weekend: Denver/Cinci, Buffalo/NE, and San Diego/Oakland. The perennial winners won and the bumbling Bills, Bengals, and Raiders lost. Coincidence? I think not. All the winning teams have superior coaching and players that play smart football. Sorry for rambling, and again I really hope the great performances of the young guys is evidence of things to come this season. But honestly, I don't think their culture of losing will change until superior coaching is brought in. It's been said before, but this past weekend really exemplified that theory.

chances are they won't get all 3 traded this off season, but the fact that everyone (including the media) knows they are all available is no coincidence. I think RB is sending a message: if you don't perform, you're expendable. plain and simple. he flat out cut dockery because he was so bad, but these guys just haven't lived up to their draft # and/or salary. people will criticize either way, but at least the front office is trying something different.

i say take the best DE at 11, and if Pettigrew isn't available at 28 then Jared Cook is our man. He grades only slightly lower than pettigrew, ran a sub 4.5 40, and played in the SEC. if we took pettigrew at 11 and the best remaining DE at 28 i think we would be much worse off. just my opinion....

Do you know what happens when you put a cancerous tumor in a dead corpse? Absolutely nothing, which is the worst thing that could happen with this experiment. The Bills maintain status quo, lose a bunch of games and stay home in January.

just a thought - was Trent a 49er's fan growing up? if so, he was probably a big TO fan in middle/high school and maybe had thoughts of playing with his old icon?

great question! if we assume an average ticket price of $90 (that includes luxury/box seats and a somewhat higher ticket price considering it's a playoff game - if someone knows whether or not teams charge more for playoff tix please chime in) and capacity of 75,000, that puts ticket revenue at 6.75M. Of course this is the NFL, so 40% of that goes to the visiting team, so that puts the Bills take at 4.05M. Now let's assume 4 ticket holders per vehicle and $25/vehicle, so that's another 0.47M. We could also conservatively estimate $10/ticket holder in food/beverages so that's yet another 0.75M. So that's $5.37M for a home playoff game. if i'm missing any components or you think i'm way off somewhere feel free to correct me.

forget schottenheimer, i want cowler!!!!

In slow motion you can see peters "rocking" a little bit, so it could be interpreted as a false start. however, you will also see that NE's d-end or outside LB was lined up offside at the time peters moved, so it should have been offsides, defense, lining up in the neutral zone. funny how the side judge saw peters moving but not the NE players head clearly across the plane. bs....

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3678394 Wilfork admitted that his hit on J.P. last season was a "cheap shot", but since his wife came with him and they have a DVD that shows his hit on Cutler may not have been dirty he avoids suspension. Lesson learned: Cheapshotting a bills player is fine, just don't do it to a larger market team's franchise player and we won't suspend you. GREAT MESSAGE YOU'RE SENDING GOODELL!!!