Alphadawg7
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Posts posted by Alphadawg7
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Why just remove the Cincy game? Why not also remove his worst game, which was the 2nd Pats game? If you do, he completed 58.3% of his passes, threw for 221 yards/game and had a 19:10 TD:INT ratio, not to mention 2 fewer fumbles.
Is that a real question to the poster who put that up? I mean come on, it has a fairly obvious answer. The poster was illustrating that the Cincy game was an abnormal game, and it was greatly helped to make possible by the fact that Cincy literally lost half of their starting secondary mid game in which prior to that Fitz was playing atrocious.
The point the other poster was trying to make, was that outside of that game, he was pretty unimpressive in the majority of the rest of his games.
I mean how often are you banking on our opponent losing half their starting secondary for a game?
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I'm just saying that I think it ought to be factored in. I wouldn't anticipate it moving him way up in the ratings but it is a part of the whole idea of a QB performing under pressure.
If the study is purely a statement about throwing when under pressure then I would say the study is excessively narrow.
For the sake of argument, what if the stats showed that not only was Fitz good at avoiding sacks (which he is and this is important) but that he was also better than average at scrambling for first downs?
What's the point of a study which only takes into account the outcome of his throws under pressure when there are times when he is under pressure where he doesn't get sacked and/or where he runs for a first down?
I think the fact that Fitz was 8th in 3rd down passer rating (93.2) is much more relevant than this study.
I guess to make one criticism of the article I would say that it appears to be so narrow as to lose quite a bit of meaning.
Passer rating on third down and third down conversions is not the same thing. Completing a pass for 5 yards on 3rd and 8 helps your passer rating but not the team.
None the less, I hope Fitz elevates his game this year as I do feel he is a good leader and sets a great example of how to play, but I just haven't seen enough out of him as a passer to think his ceiling is much higher than what he did last year.
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I see where among the 34 quarterbacks, that Fitz was sacked the 6th least when pressured (14.02%). That is a significant stat in his favor.
It doesn't appear to me however that Pro Football Focus incorporates this fairly significant stat into their ratings of how QBs perform under pressure.
In spite of the fact that they have a chart showing sack percentage when pressured, they barely mention it and don't state whether this stat is incorporated into their overall formula (I just skimmed through the article). It appears that sacks are not factored in.
If I'm correct in this, I would say that the study is somewhat flawed.
When a quarterback ends up getting sacked, the offense loses that down AND an average of about 7 yards. In that sense a sack is a much worse outcome than an offensive holding penalty which is 10 yards but a replay of the down. This is also not to even factor in that sacks are often big momentum-swinging plays.
Football is still a game of field position and if PFF wants to rate performance under pressure, they have to factor in the ability to avoid negative plays.
While I see where you are going with this, I don't actually agree with how you are applying it here. The number of times more the other QB's were sacked in relation to how many times Fitz was sacked is not very significant. So while it is great that he is taking less sacks (mainly because he has above average mobility), it isn't a significant difference. It's not like the other QB's are being sacked 50 or 60 more times than Fitz in other words under these conditions. So what it boils down to is on a few plays these QB's may have taken a sack where Fitz got rid of the ball. However, considering Fitz was 9th in the league in INT's despite only 13 starts, just getting rid of the ball isn't always better than taking a sack.
I am more concerned with the fact that he had the fourth highest drop in accuracy because a QB who is highly inaccurate under pressure like that will likely throw a lot of INT's which Fitz did.
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Alpha,
I think most all Bills fans feel the same way about Fitz. Here's the thing, I know he's not "THE" guy, but I feel we had other needs that needed addressed elsewhere (Defense), and I'm just fine with Fitz running the O for an entire year (well hopefully we have an entire year), training camp included.
As for the article, I'll still not agree on the premise that if our D didn't suck as bad as it did, we wouldn't be trying to press the ball and Fitz didn't have to try to make plays instead of just playing the game as smrtly as he could have if we were playing with the lead. If you've ever played the game you know what I'm talking about.
I think we agree on this actually quite a bit. Like you I am fine with Fitz as our QB next year, always have been. You can't fill every hole on our team with one draft and I am fine with our draft of so many defensive needs. But being fine with him for another year is one thing, but until he changes my mind on the field, we still need to upgrade our QB position eventually to finally turn the corner as a franchise.
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And as to this point... would you rather have a QB that throws the ball away when he's hurried, or takes the sack a'la Trent Edwards...? So, a QB throws an incomplete pass... that could be a POSITIVE, but it doesn't break that down.
100% agree with you...but like many others, you are only giving Fitz credit for throwing the ball away and none of the other QB's. You act like the 29 QB's in front of him did not also throw the ball away to avoid sacks. He is not 30 out 34 QB's because he so genius to throw the ball away to avoid bad sacks and no other QB's thought to do the same...They all manage to throw balls away to avoid sacks yet 29 other QB's in the NFL were still able to overall out perform Fitz.
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Yes I watched those games (hell, I was at the KC game)... so what you're saying is that we're going to be selective on how we view stats??
There's no way Fitz and Kelly will ever be confused for each other, but the thing both of those guys do is LEAD, not manage games. Fitz does have a presence... nothing near Jimbo, but compare him to any other QB we've had since Flutie.
Again, we're asked to view ONLY a set of stats that do not show the fact that Fitz was being asked to play from behind nearly all the time with a mediocre line and mediocre talent (compared to Kelly and/or the best in the league these days). And when you play defense against a QB that you KNOW will be throwing the ball, you stand a MUCH higher chance of causing a turnover, etc.
Can we agree to this...?
Lol... comparing Jim Kelly to 95% of every QB that's ever played the game is a "no ****" answer...
I agree with everything you said...again, I did not bring Kelly into this discussion, someone else did and asked me a direct question about how Kelly would have fared on this team last year. I respected his question and answered his question with the assumption the games unfolded similarly on which games I believe Kelly would have been a factor that changed the outcome of the game.
I like Fitz as a player a whole lot, he leads and plays with guts which I highly respect. But, that doesn't mean I am satisfied with what he did week in and week out on the field. It's great he has the attributes, and I wish we had more guys with those on this team, but that doesn't mean he is consistently doing the other things right as a QB. At the end of the day, the QB still needs to be able to consistently move the chains, score points while minimizing the turnovers, and get his accuracy under control...something he has not been able to deliver on thus far. I would LOVE it if he becomes that guy, I just don't have much confidence in that based on his body of work.
Wow. So outside variables have absolutely no affect on these stats? Even though we have no idea how they were computed? Even though "pressure" could mean endless different combinations of plays and situations? I'm gonna have to disagree with you on that...
Did you even read what I wrote or the article before you responded? I addressed specific variables that have 100% no relevance to this article that people keep bringing up, I did not say no variables. For example as you seem to have missed it, our defense had 100% nothing to do with this article, yet it is being used as an excuse.
And you can use "variables" for every QB, but the ones that want to dismiss this article as worthless only apply variables to Fitz and no one else.
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You go John {insert fistbump]...
A very subjective topic to begin with... performing well under pressure? How does that take into account, o-line, injuries to key personnel, rookie WR starters, how your defense can't get off the field to give you more chances, etc... we could always go back to captain checkdown till folks realize that almost every down a Bills QB faces pressure and at least Fitz takes some shots downfield rather than dump it 3 yrds when we need 12.
What is so confusing about this article that people bring in 100% completely unrelated factors that have absolutely zero to do with what the information being presented by the article? Number of chances because of the D had 100% nothing to do with anything discussed in this article. It has 100% nothing to do with quality of the O line. It has 100% nothing to do with injuries to that O line.
The article is a comparison of how a QB performs on each pass attempt when a defender has broken through the pass protection for each QB. In other words, the pass protection has failed each QB in each pass attempt, not just failed Fitz. This has nothing to do with our defense either.
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You're on crack. First things first. Fitz did enough to beat Balt, how was it his fault we fumbled in Balt territory? Fitz did enough to beat KC, Lindell just couldn't kick the damned FG twice. He did plenty to beat Pitt... And I agree he would've beaten Mia the first meeting. You didn't point out that he had a 92.4 QB rating against NE the first game and a 121 QB rating against Jax.
I'm not saying Fitz is a great QB, but comparing him to Kelly is silly. I think many of you would agree Kelly had a much better supporting cast on O and a WAY better D and ST's play.
Again, this thing is fun to look at and discuss, but in no way is this totally indicative of QB play. You might point out that a lot of the top QB's are "rated" right where they should be, but you'd fail to point out that they all had much better supporting lines (who wouldn't play better QB if you BELIEVED in your O-line..?), and better supporting offenses (TO INCLUDE TE's, a QB's best friend in the face of pressure!). SOOoooo many variables...
Lol... well, it's a Monday isn't it...?
Hold your horses...I did not compare him to Kelly, someone else did and he asked me to answer the question what if Kelly had been on that team last year. I even said in my response to him that it was foolish to compare Fitz to Kelly as if they are similar. That did not come from me, but I simply answered the question he posed to me.
Second, to answer your question about Kelly being a difference in the Balt game and the KC game...did you watch the games? If you did, then you would know we had a double digit half time lead that Fitz gave away in the 3rd for good with two very bad INT's that easily led to two Balt TD's. I am of the opinion that Kelly would have managed the game better and not had us playing from behind the rest of the game and better protected the lead. If you watched the KC game you would have seen one of Fitz's worst games of the season...he did not do enough to win that game, KC did enough to keep us in the game. KC dropped 3 gimme INT's (2 of which would have been pick sixes) for starters. Fitz had only one good drive the whole game, the late TD to SJ. Then he followed it up with a INT where we could have easily won the game with a FG in regulation. Then he missed a wide open Spiller for the win in the endzone BEFORE the missed FG. So again, Kelly IMO wins that game for us.
And your QB rating in those 2 other games...NE it was high because he just was Trent reincarnated as he dumped passes off all day in check downs and failed to convert 3rd downs or extend drives. We only had a shot because of a Spiller ST TD in the 2nd half, otherwise it would have been a blow out. Jax game, he started ok then vanished in the 2nd half until the game was a blow out and he got garbage time TD with a minute left in the game against prevent when they were not covering anyone. That made his stats look good, but his performance was not. In fact, many posters (who now love Fitz) was saying it was time to start Brohm as we were going into the bye week after that game. So again, I see Kelly as being a bigger difference in those games.
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Never been to Buffalo...Born and raised in CA. I have a bit of an unusual way I became a Bills fan.
Grew up in Central CA where most were 49er fans, my dad was a hard core Niner fan. As a kid I was a big Payton fan, which made me a Bears fan by default. But I was real young and didn't really care about the Bears once Payton retired. So, I did not really have a favorite team yet, more like favorite players.
Well when I was young, my dad and that side of the family raised cattle. And one day, my grandfather for just the hell of it bought a live Buffalo at auction when buying some cattle for their ranch. I was like 10 and thought it was the greatest thing I had seen in person not in a zoo. Of course you also know Chris Berman for 20 years picked Buffalo and the Niners to go to the SB no matter how bad these teams were. Well, given my dad and I were competitive, I naturally rooted against the Niners. So between getting a real Buffalo and Berman picking Buffalo against the Niners I started paying attention to the Buffalo Bills.
During this time, I was just starting to really love the game and understand the game when Buffalo started to emerge with Thurman, Bruce, Kelly, Reed, etc. They were the most exciting team I had seen and was in love with the no huddle offense. I never looked back, I became a huge fan and loved the team ever since. I have been to several Bills games out here, but plan on going to see a home game this year for the first time.
Its a bit unusual story, but been a die hard Bills fan since about 1987, and always will.
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A few things
- Stats are for losers (not calling you a loser)
- Results are reflective of the TEAM.....you know...its a team game? Much like when a receiver drops a ball that hits him right in the mits or a running back misses his block forcing Fitz to throw early or move out of the pocket...you know? Stuff like that
- Nice of you to chop a piece out of my post.....it makes it so much better of an arguement for you
Look....put aside the friggen numbers for just a second please? The bottom line is WILL THESE OTHER PLAYERS PLAY FOR FITZ? He leads by example....he doesnt throw his team under the bus and admits when he made a mistake......he is a gutsy player who takes chances.....he puts his body on the line......and when you hear the rest of this of the offensive players talk they dont want anybody but Fitz behind center......he is the very definition of LEADER
And since we dont have a Tom Brady or Payton Manning on the roster.....why not get behind the guy? What choice do you have?
Trust me, I know and respect all those points...but, not all stats are for losers (and its a pretty week argument to say stats are for losers to dismiss the stats that factually disprove your argument), and the results I referred to were not the team results but Fitz's personal results as you said "Fitz" is "great" under pressure...and the results and stats both say otherwise. Not all stats prove this or that, but there are many stats that are important indicators of a players effectiveness overall or in given situations.
Clearly, the stats are plain as day that he is not good under pressure, but above and beyond that, he did not deliver when the pressure was on. We lost games on his arm this year with critical turnovers, even game ending turnovers, and drive ending missed passes. So, results and stats both say he is not "great" under pressure. That is the point.
I hope he comes out strong this year, but this discussion is not about next year, its about last year, and last year your claim of him being "great" under pressure has no factual basis other than you just saying it. I am behind the guy, I will root for him every weekend, but that doesn't change my opinion on how he played this past season. Because I am not satisfied with his past performance does not mean I hate the guy or won't root for him. He is a leader out there, he plays with guts, and I love that. But his individual performance was not good enough for me to say we are set at QB.
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BUT
Fitz is a great pressure player....if only the rest of the players on the team would match it.
Really? Hmm, stats and results say otherwise, but if you say so enough it must be true right.
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I remember a few people suggesting Chad Johnson should be considered as a FA (Something I definitely don't agree with). I saw this clip, sorry but I just could never root for this guy...Even if he was good (which he's not).
Why? He just took a risk most people wouldn't have the balls to take by getting on that beast to help charity. What is wrong with that? I don't want him here in Buffalo because it will slow the development of our young prospects, and now is the time to develop those young prospects as we rebuild. But, why should anyone slam him for raising money for charity?
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Probably one of the dumbest articles I've seen. So Sanchez,Henne and Farve rank BELOW Fitzy. Fine. That means in the AFC East, only Brady is better. Whatever. Those stats are just crap to read while waiting for football to begin again. All I can tell you is when you get into the face of any QB they look really average. Brady, Marino, all of them. You pressure them and they don't look so great. This speaks more to our OL than anything else right now. It amuses me that so many on this board (and on this thread) get so high and mighty on "Fitz is not a franchise QB." So? He's better what was available to us in the Draft and Chan and Buddy will go get a guy who's better when and if they appear.
This response is about what I expected...you state the obvious that all QB's stats are worse under the pressure while completely ignoring the actual point of the article to somehow dismiss its value. The article is about comparing all the QB's under the same pressure...and Fitz is among the worst in the league at it. So just stating the obvious that all QB's perform lower under pressure then without pressure does not dismiss Fitzs very poor performance in comparison to all the other QB's in the league under pressure. People like you like to dismiss facts and go with biased opinion, lol.
BREAKING NEWS: In the NFL QB's will be facing pressure a lot because thats what defenses do. If your QB can't handle that, then thats a problem.
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So it's bad to draft defenders who are so good they create three-and-outs?
If we draft the best Offense in the history of football, they'll hardly be on the field because it will be One-And-Done with a TD! So then all these high offensive draft picks will be wasted because they'll never be on the field. And the defense will tire out because they have to return to the field so quickly.
Um, points are what win games. So if we were one and done with a TD every drive we wouldn't that be a good thing and we would go undefeated forever with a scoring average of 80+points a game?
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You need only remember what they did after last year's bye week....
Eight quality games…
Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, Lions, Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins
Two bad games…
Vikings, Patriots
and one glorified exhibition game…
Jets
This is a team with veterans at key positions who won't have to relearn a new system, who have a QB who won't be coming in cold off the bench but will have an entire training camp with the first team and to be ready week 1 against the Chiefs. Also, with the addition of Wannstedt as a defensive coach and Dareus who will help greatly at stopping the run, this team is poised to be one of the "surprise" teams in 2011. I think they've got a real NFL team brewing here.
Hmmmm...after our bye week...ok, lets look at that.
Fitz started 9 games (Brohm started one of the final 10 games) after our bye week completing 55% of his passes, 70 QB rating with 12 TD's and 16 Turnovers. Our D and O was also one of the worst over that period. We had a losing record over those final 10 games. This is what you think we deserve more respect for?
This isn't horse shoes...you dont get points for almost. And your "quality" games is quite the exaggeration. We played bad in most of those games and were fortunate those teams did too. Take the KC game for instance...one of Fitz's worst games of the season and one of our D's worst games of the season. However, KC dropped 3 gimme INT's (2 of which should have been pick sixes) and their offense kept shooting themselves in the foot with chances to score after pushing our D around all day. KC allowed us to even have a chance in that game...our offense, defense, and ST were all far from quality that game.
But you and others like to look at the stat sheet or scoreboard and say this or that...people need to watch the games again because we were not very good and earned the rankings we are getting right now. I believe we will be better, but its pretty silly to think anyone else will outside of Bills fans.
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http://fanrankings.nfl.com/results
Experts have us at 28, fans at 31. It does get annoying when you truly know your team will be better than that, especially since we probably got at least 2 or 3 legitimate impact players from our draft. I'd put us somewhere between 24-20, not playoffs yet, but getting there.
Really? Because this board was in an uproar last year when we got "no love" in the rankings and then went out and lived up to those rankings.
What is with this board and Bills fans since of entitlement of respect this team has not remotely earned? We had the #3 pick in the draft...teams that draft that high are not going to all of a sudden be top 15 in the polls because they drafted a DL. Not to mention, just about everyone outside of Bills fans knows the Bills need a better QB and we have yet to get one. Our offense was in the bottom third of the league last year and our defense was one of the worst.
So who cares about us being ranked that low, because we earned that ranking thus far and deserve to be there until we earn the right to be ranked higher. I believe we will be better, but I don't expect others to think otherwise based on what we have shown thus far.
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The Buffalo Bills are all in on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback for the 2011 NFL season. But the writers at ProFootballFocus.com put together an interesting study in their review of the 2010 season, revealing that Ryan Fitzpatrick is among one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league with pressure in his face.
http://wgr550.com/Bills--Fitzpatrick-Ranks-Poorly-Under-Pressure/9846589
Cue the excuses...
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The hardest thing about the lockout now is not seeing our draft picks in OTAs. I'm dying to see MJ in drills against NFL level players.
PTR
Ok, someone needs to clue me in on what I am missing here. Where is all the excitement coming from about this kid who is a 7th round pick and a long shot to make the team with a crowded D Line in front of him all ready? I don't mean that to knock the kid, I am just asking someone to clue me in on why this kid keeps getting so many threads started on him. We have some great prospects out of this draft, but this kid is being talked about more than any of our first 3 picks who are all potential day 1 starters.
Don't get me wrong, I think its great he is generating so much support, I just curious to where it is coming from as I had not heard a peep about him prior to the draft or during the draft until we picked him up.
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OK. So then who's to say that Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker didn't have more dropped passes? Maybe they dropped more balls than that then. Or does that rule ONLY account for Stevie???
Of all the things in my post, thats the only thing you wanted to respond with? Convenient...
Again, SJ dropped too many passes that players on this level should not be dropping. SJ was irrelevant far too often when the game still mattered and emerged to grab some late game stats with the game all but over. SJ was not dominating games the likes of those receivers you listed. SJ had mental lapses in important situations. You can grasp all you want to his year end stats, but the truth is SJ had a break out year for a 7th round draft pick, but at this point he compares more to Peerless Price more so than the receivers on your list. He has a lot to prove this year with the expectations he has now established and needs to elevate his game.
I like him a lot, and I think last year was a break out year, but not a dominant year. He has not emerged as a game changer or a true #1 receiver, and he won't until he can be relied on to make the catches in the tough spots, gets his mental game in check, and can prove to be a consistent factor throughout games.
# of games over 75 yards = 3
# of games less than 60 yards = 9
# of games with more than 5 catches = 5
He also only reached the endzone in 2 of his last 9 games...
Thats not the season of a dominant WR...he has a lot of potential, and I like him, but to talk about him in the same breath as the top receivers in the game is a bit premature. I am looking forward to seeing how he does this year and hopes that he emerges as a true #1.
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Stats don't lie. WR's that get targeted that much are gonna drop passes. It happens to the best of em. I'm not saying he's elite, but he is one of the better WRs in the game and the stats prove it. He caught 82 passes and dropped 8. God forbid. Dam him to h*ll !!!
Andre Johnson had 86 receptions and dropped 7.
Reggie Wayne had 111 receptions and dropped 13.
Brandon Marshall 86 receptions and dropped 11
Even elite WRs drop passes.
First of all, dropped passes are not an official stat and are subjective to interpretation. Second, I promise you SJ dropped more than 8 passes that he should have caught, I mean he had 5 in the Pitt game alone. Third, SJ drops too many passes that simply someone at this level should not be dropping.
More importantly though is that SJ was no where near as important on the field as those other receivers were last season. Too many times he was irrelevant for the bulk of the game and in several games compiled most of his stats once the game was out of reach. I am still high on him, it was still a break out year for him, but he is far from being in the conversation of the receivers you have on your list. He was no where near a game changer where he just took over games or was truly a dominant player on the field.
Overall, he had a break out season and I am looking forward to see how he builds on it. But, he has to be able make strides this year to be a factor throughout the game, make the catches he is supposed to make, and work on his mental game to be able to be relied upon in key situations.
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Front office is not as convinced as you. They took another Rb.
Really? You think a draft pick on day 3 of the draft was taken because they are not sold on spiller and think this kid could challenge or replace last years #9 overall pick rather than the more obvious logic of taking him for depth since we only have 2 RB's?
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What's so special about that? Kaepernick is going to a guy that just did pretty everything he's going to be asked to do. If it wasn't for the lockout, Kaepernick wouldn't even bother going to work with Luck. He'd work with his coaching staff instead. Just another reason for people to keep deep throating Luck.
^^^this^^^
LOL at the deep throating comment. Yeah, this isn't rocket science...Luck is the only QB that knows the offense Harbaugh wants to run. SF coaches cant go teach him, so why not send the kid to Stanford to learn as much as he can to better prepare him for once the lockout is lifted. If there was no lockout, its pretty much a 100% guarantee that Luck would not be the guy teaching him the offense. This is just actually a brilliant move by Harbaugh to make the most out of a bad situation by finding a loop hole that he can exploit because he just came from the college ranks and is going to roll out a similar offense in SF.
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Travis Henry never had trouble hitting the hole...
HA! And he had no trouble hitting the hole without any protection
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How does this make any sense though? Any rookie QB was not going to play this year for us anyway and would have sat the whole year behind Fitz. It's not like he was going to need to be ready to play at the beginning of the season. They already said that even if they drafted a QB they still were going to bring in a vet from FA to camp to compete to backup Fitz.
Still no love...
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
First, you are correct about the bye week, I mistakenly calculated after the Balt game (as so many usually talk about the games after Balt since that was the game everyone jumped on his band wagon) but the bye week was before the Balt game not after. My mistake.
However, my math is not wrong over those games I talked about. In his final 9 games after the Balt game, he had 12 TD's, 16 turnovers, completed 56% of his passes, and had a QB rating of 70. All you have proven is how one game (Balt) skews his numbers to look better overall when the MAJORITY his numbers were below average or just bad in just about every other week.
Second, stop with the KC game, it was literally one of his worst games as a Bill. The fact you are trying to say it wasn't proves you either have no idea what you are talking about with that game, don't remember the game, did not watch the game, or just going to say anything to boost up Fitz no matter how bad it is.
Fitz was all over the place in that game. He had three gimme INT's dropped, 2 of which should have been pick sixes. I dont mean some tipped pass or difficult to catch INT...I mean three med to short passes straight into the hands and chest of the defender no where close to the receiver that they literally dropped...passes my girl would have caught. That game should have been a blow out by KC but they kept shooting themselves in the foot with missed opportunity after opportunity on offense and defense.
Fitz had ONE good drive, and one good drive does not make a good game. In fact, after the one good drive to tie the game, he went on to complete just 33% of his passes, with an INT, and missed wide open Spiller to win the game. The only reason we went to OT was because he missed an open Lee by a mile for a first down in FG with over a minute on the clock for an awful INT. He had several chances to redeem himself in OT, yet kept missing open receivers, including a game winning TD to a wide open Spiller when he had the time to throw too. If you think this was a good game for him, then you have no business on any level discussing the play of any QB, sorry.