Alphadawg7
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Posts posted by Alphadawg7
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Please do not think i am being rude, well maybe i am little. But did you watch him play? Did you watch the pocket collapse often, the totally unblocked defensive players coming at him full steam alot and hit him often. The throws into places that was mostly risk because that was all there was. etc. The dropped big passes by Evans and Johnson
I dislike stats more and more unless you can read behind them. And for that you gotta watch the games. I liked what i saw from the boy. And he made passes that looked awful, but he had some beauties that some were caught and some weren't. He's a hell of a buffalo bill.
Not at all...its a discussion, and you and everyone else is entitled to their opinnion. Your question is a legit question, so no offense taken. To answer your question, yes, I watched every game as I am sure many people on here did. The post you replied too certainly makes it appear as if I dont think Fitz did anything right, and thats mainly because I was directly responding about specifics to someone elses post, especially the part about how no one knows anything about football unless they share his opinnion on Fitz.
There are positives to Fitzs game like you mentioned like his decision making and ability to read the D. Unfortunately his talent level hasnt been at a level that allows him to be consistent enough to take advantage of those traits. It doesnt do us any good if he makes a good adjustment at the LOS pre snap then misses the open reciever or throws into a defender. I know a lot of things I need to do during my golf swing, but that doesnt make me a good golfer as you still need to be able to execute.
I already put a thread up about the myth of the dropped passes. He was in the bottom half of the league in having WR's drop balls, and the highest rated QB's in both rating and accuarcy had by far the most drops by WR's in the league. So dropped balls are an excuse made for him that just is not accurate, but understandable given the high profile of SJ's dropped pass saga in Pitt.
Point is, the obstacles he went through are no different then the obstacles of quarterbacks around the league year in and year out and all his key statisical categories were in the bottom half of the league (outside TD total) and consistent with his career averages.
When I watched him play I saw a guy who definitely struggles with accuracy, even on completed passes, short passes, and even screens. One thing I noticed a lot is when he wanted to make a tight throw he had to reach back and put everything he could on it with a big wind up. The zip to put the ball in tight places is not something that comes natural for him and when he tries to put so much into a throw it makes it harder to accurately deliver the ball. If you golf you will know what I mean...its like a guy who pulls out his driver and tries to swing as hard as he can to hit the ball which severlely lowers his accuracy...when he pulls it off it looks great, but too often he misses the mark.
I saw a lot of completed passes not go for essential first downs because he got the ball there in a spot forcing the reciever to break his route to make the catch allowing the defender to close and make the tackle. I saw a lot of plays that could have gone for big gains, even TD's but didnt because the ball was not accurately delivered. This is a big reason why his YPA is so low.
So while I commend Fitz for his stylf of play, I just dont think he has the tools to play at a high enough level consistently enough to make us a contender again.
"he had way more bad games than good games"
That right there is what I'm talking about when I say that someone knows very little about the game of football. Fitzpatrick had a very good year and to say otherwise is just being plain ignorant. Also, to play your nonsense switching rolls game, Aaron Rodgers would have had a very hard time matching Fitzpatrick's numbers if he were inserted into this starting lineup of a pitiful team two games into the 2010 season. Tell us, how many TDs do you think Rodgers would have had in those 13 games with no running game, a lousy #1 in Evans and no name backups before the season began?
Really? Your reply is to just once again repeat that anyone who doesnt think he had a "VERY GOOD" year is just ignorant? Then you follow it up with implying that Rodgers would not have done any better here than Fitz? And you call others ignorant or that they know nothing about football
Your post isnt even worth addressing further...so we will agree to disagree and leave it at that
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Again...throwing to previous nobodies, free agent rookies, having no tight end threat, no running game threat, no shortened fields. Sorry, but fans who try to downplay Fitzpatrick's very solid 2010 season know very little about the game of football.
Throwing to nobodys? First off, Evans is hardly a nobody (just ask the DC's who still double him every play)...and just because SJ had not broken out previously doesnt make him a nobody and not capable of breaking out. So the fact SJ had a good season doesnt mean that it only happened because of Fitz...hell it might have happened sooner on another team.
In addition, there is no way GB wins the SB with Fitz at the helm instead of Rodgers, and thats with Elite talent around him on both sides of the ball...in fact, they probably would not have even made it to the playoffs let alone the SB as it took Rodgers carrying that team to even squeak in to the playoffs.
Second, he was below average is just about EVERY passing category outside of over glorified TD total that is heavily padded by a fluke game in Cincy where he was ATROCIOUS until both starting safeties left the game and one stand out game in Balt. He had way more bad games than good games, has a pretty weak TD to TO ratio, his avg TD's per game this year in the other 11 games was not very impressive and neither is his career averages.
He has never been accurate and still isnt, not to mention he is inaccurate on a high percentage of his completed throws where recievers have to break their routes to make the catch preventing them from making more plays after the catch.
There is literally no single stat outside of TD TOTAL that you can hang your hat on and that number is skewed because his WEEK TO WEEK performance doesnt come close to what you are trying to make 23 TD's in 13 games appear to indicate. But if you break each game down you no longer have a leg to stand on, so you insist on focusing on the TD totals because thats the only way he looks effective.
He plays with heart, he plays with guts, and I respect that...but its pretty ignorant on your part to say that people dont know anything about football because they dont share the same man crush you do.
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If the Bills don't take Newton or Gabbert with the first pick then it makes no sense to take one until the fifth round on (maybe one of the 4th picks depending on who's there). Ask yourself what the chances are the either Dalton or Ponder could ever become as good as Fitzpatrick is right now. The answer to me is there's a very slim chance of that happening. Fitzpatrick is a good QB on his way to being a very good QB. He's smart and threw 23 TDs in 13 games coming in off the bench.
Picking either Ponder or Dalton is throwing away a much needed starter somewhere else on the team, be it LB, DE, CB or OL. The Bills need starters!
If they don't take QB in the first then they should just go with Fitzpatrick and reevaluate the position after this coming season.
People need to get a grip with the Fitz talk about his 23 TD's in 13 games...he got EIGHT of them in 2 games (and he was atrocious vs Cincy until BOTH starting safeties left the game) and picked up a worthless garbage time TD in the final minutes of each of his first 3 starts. His TD numbers are not very good on a game to game basis and he is near the bottom of the league in most of the other key QB categories...his season was not that good and this team needs a QB to develop to be the starter. Fitz is a good stop gap at best
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1 - Dareus, Quinn, Fairley
2 - Kaepernick, Locker, Ponder
Elite D talent first and then one of the better QB prospects in the 2nd.
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Just got this text that they tendered Poz, Whitner and Chandler...
Thoughts?
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the Bills wouldn't be interested in trading the third pick unless the player they covet is gone once the Bills are on the clock. Nix noted he doesn't believe in moving down. That indicates the Bills will not shop the pick.
I noticed this in another article about Newton and the Bills interest in him.
http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/26454/is-buffalo-blowing-smoke-on-cam-newton
I cant believe a guy who wants to build through the draft and is a confident drafter wouldnt want to add more picks by trading down.
Here is he reality of the situation...
1. You rarely see trade downs from this high of a spot because of the ridiculous cost for a team to trade up to #3.
2. If there is guy worth trading so much to get, then the team that EARNED the #3 spot almost certainly needs a player of that caliber, so why would you pass on such an Elite player on a team void of Elite talent?
3. No GM ever believs they will be picking this high again for a long time. Picking in the top 10, especially the top 5 is what they view as a rare chance to get an exceptional prospect.
So, trading down from #3 makes little sense from a logical stand point. Unless someone just blows us away with trade value and we can trade back to a spot (like within a few picks of where we are at) where a player we covet can most likely still be had, then it makes sense. Outside of that, trading down from #3 or the top 5 in general doesn't make a whole lot of sense the majority of the time, so his philosphy doesnt surprise me at all and is probably the same one shared by the majority of the FO's in the NFL.
Some of that talk is Buddy being Buddy.
The part of Nix's statement that is most puzzling is why would a guy that is at least 8 starters away from a contender in the AFCE (upgrades are needed to RT, TE, QB, C, DE, DT, OLB, ILB and now S) not want more picks? The player they covet at #3 is going to fill exactly 1 hole. In the case of Spiller last year they did not even accomplish that.
Jimmy johnson built the Cowboys by trading for more picks. The pats* are always acquiring extra picks. Not saying Buddy should trade the #3 pick, just saying his tendancy to make blanket statements makes him sound a bit silly. Then again, he told us from the very beginning that he has never been the smartest guy in the room.
Jimmy Johnson built the Cowboys by trading Herschel Walker for a bounty of picks...not by trading down and picking up an extra mid round pick and a lower first round pick.
NE builds their team trading away LATE first round picks and their late 2nd round picks, not trading away top 10 picks.
Picking at #3 represents a chance to draft an ELITE prospect...trading down from the 23rd pick in the draft to get extra seconds is not even close to trading away from an Elite prospect in the top 5 to take a chance on some 2nd round prospects...
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Or possibly Stroud will have the same impact that Fred Taylor, Torry Holt, and other veteran free agents have had as Patriots.
Zero impact.
Sroud has more left in the tank than Fred and Holt had. Fred had some legs left, but his body couldnt hold up. Holt was pretty much done. He may not retun to the Pro Bowl next year, but I think he will a solid addition to that team.
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2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC.
2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC
Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come?
Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked.
Dont forget that EIGHT of his TD's came in 2 games this year, leaving his total over the other 11 games very modest. And in one of those games, he was atrocious until BOTH starting safeties got knocked out of the game (Cincy)...his TD's production looks much better as a TOTAL than it does going game by game. Also, 3 more of those TD's came in garbage time in the final minutes of blow outs during his first 3 games (1 each in his first 3 starts).
The "homers" will point to his TD total, the realists would point to how bad and lowly rated he was in almost all key QB stats, the turnovers, his record, his bad games (which greatly out weigh his good games), and how while he is light years better than Trent that doesnt make him a good QB. He is a stop gap at best. I love his guts, heart, and leadership...unfortunately the rest of his game just isnt strong enough or consistent enough.
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There is absolutely no way Casey Matthews falls to the 5th round. He'll go 3rd round at the latest, and thats pushing it
Yeah, I have been saying this several times too...I keep seeing all these posters talking about getting Mathews in the 4th or 5th round when there is no way he lasts that long...
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Let me know what you think. The Bills need Defensive help..
You left off Heyward as a choice for round 2...
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I'm certain that the Panthers will end up picking Cam Newton #1 overall. Think about it this way, what exactly is upside of drafting Nick Fairley over Cam Newton when you have Jimmy Freaking Clausen as your starting QB?
After the combine and his pro day, the writing will be on the wall that they are "all in" with Newton. Did you hear Trent Dilfer's obscenely enthusiastic endorsement of Cam after his workout? That's only the beginning my friend.
The Panthers will get a very talented "franchise" type QB (who'll have the endorsement of the "experts") and they'll also get the added benefit of a huge boost in season ticket and jersey sales.
I think the Bills will get Nick Fairley after the Broncos pick Peterson at #2. That's a great first pick!
I can easily see this happening too as you laid it out and I would be quite happy with this scenario.
Cam Newton? Aren't you sick and tired of teams running up and down the field on us? IF we resign Poz and Whittner, that will be about 5 decent (not great) players on defense. It's all about the front 7.
I didnt say I wanted Cam at 3, just that I think this is the pick that is coming. I wont hate Newton at 3 because of his upside, but I would prefer a stud DL guy there instead and then grabbing a QB in the 2nd as I think some good ones will slide.
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Yeah thats kind of what I was driving at......he has basically gotten the bulk of his money already....so it isnt like cutting him will offer any real savings.
Maybe he can fetch gatorade for the real players?
HA! That was awesome...
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Still feel this way (post Stroud)?
I posted this post Stroud...in fact, first posted in the Bills cut Stroud thread
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PER ROTOWORLD:
8/21/2009: Signed a five-year, $17.6 million contract. The deal contains $15 million guaranteed, including a $7.087 million signing bonus. Another $7.4 million is available through incentives based on playing time and sacks. 2011: $757,500, 2012: $1.12 million, 2013: $1.4825 million, 2014: $1.5 million (Voidable Year), 2015: Free Agent
1/6/11: Aaron Maybin didn't even play special teams
Former No. 11 overall pick Aaron Maybin didn't even earn a spot on the Bills' special teams in 2010."He's on the outside looking in," said coach Chan Gailey of Maybin's roster spot for 2011. "That's where he is. If he improves, he'll improve his status. But if he doesn't improve his status he won't find playing time on this football team." The Bills can cut Maybin without taking a financial hit. Well, aside from the $7.1 million signing bonus they blew on him two years ago. Jan 6, 11:27:00
This actually bodes well for him getting a longer look as he financially isnt any kind of risk...again though, he better show something or he wont last long in TC. He better be on Merrimans jock this whole offseason tyring to learn how to play this game we call football...
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They could trade down, pick up extra picks, still get Newton and fix the trenches. IF things break right. I wouldn't call Newton a luxury pick. Bills will need a QB sooner or later.
Now that I would love...trade down and still get Newton along with additional picks. Again, I just dont see anyone available at #3 that teams are going to trade up for. That is why I think we will stay put and take Newton then top DL in the 2nd who I think is probably someone like Heyward and then BPA between LB/OT in the 3rd.
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It would be creating MUCH BIGGER holes if we let Whitner and Poz walk.
How does Billsfreak feel about that?
Yeah I agree with you. Losing one of them will be a hole that needs to definitely be addressed...losing both will really cause problems as we can only fill so many holes in an offseason.
I mean, even if he is penciled in for 4th or 5th end with the plans, until we get to 53 men and he wasnt one, he had some value. Totally out of whack with his contract, but a body will be signed at DE now for sure. That all said, it was clearly the right choice.
Sorry if it wasnt clear...I was really agreeing with you.
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I'm saying for about 4 mill less a year we should have no problem getting equal or greater production. This is a pin hole, not the collapse of the Hoover damn. I'm guessing we can cover it pretty easy with some bubblegum if need be with no significant loss
It's even possible stroud was dome playing 34 end and wanted to move on. But let's be outraged at the front office
I am not even sure it is a hole. I mean from what I saw last year, Troup and Carrington look like they are better options anyway in this system as this point in Strouds career. So, if we have better players to play his spot, then how is it creating a hole?
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I'm more and more in favor of a trade down and don't like "luxury" picks, but Newton would be a pretty ambitious and risky pick at 3. Trading down and fixing our problems in the trenches would be the better choice. Picture us getting a very good OT at mid round one, and a DT and good linebacker in round two and a DE and possible OLB or TE in round 3. That would go a long way toward fixing some of our major problems.
I would be great with that...like I said above, its not my ideal draft, its just the one I see happening. Honestly, I would love to trade down this year given the depth of this draft and how many needs we have...but I really dont see that happening. The cost to move up to #3 is very high, and we wont trade back without proper value...so who is there at #3 worthy of such a steep price for a team to grab? And if they are worth so much, why wouldnt we take that player given our lack of Elite talent on this team? So, I see a trade down as a very unlikely scenario, although I would be all for it based on the amount of holes we have.
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This is not the draft I am necessairly pulling for, but it's how I really see it playing out the first 3 rounds. Trying to figure our rounds 4 through 7 is just about impossible and not worth the time to do so. But here is how I see the first 3 rounds shaking out:
1 - Newton - I dont love or hate this pick. I am not sold on him yet...there is no denying he has immense potential, be also has a considerable amount of risk too. However, sometimes you have to take a gamble to get where you want to go, and if I am going to gamble then this kids upside is something worth gambling on.
2 - Heyward - I can really see him still being there when we pick and most likely the top rated DL still on the board. Sure he can go in the first, but I think he will fall to us based on how I can see the first round playing out. I cant see anyway we could pass on him if he is there. If Heyward isnt there, then I still think we go to DL on board unless a LB/OT is there that we love.
3 - Top rated LB/OT left on the board - I think we grab the highest rated player on our board at one of these 2 positions. I think it will be a LB, maybe even Mathews if he slips out of the 2nd. Pretty difficult to say which one will be here because there are so many mocks out there having some LB's going in the 2nd and others saying they will go in the 4th...same with the OT's. So, I think we address these positions, but to say which player is pretty difficult.
I am not one to make predicitions for the draft, but I really have a feeling this is how its going to play out. I would still be excited with this draft, but the riskiness of Cam makes it hard to love it.
How would you feel about this draft?
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Aaron Maybin should be next. Who are we kidding here? The guy is not big nor strong enough to play in the NFL. The longer he's on the Bills roster the less credibility the GM, coach, and owner have. Admit the mistake and move on.
While I would have normally agree with you on this, I think the signing of Merriman will actually buy Maybin more time. I dont know if he will make the opening day roster, but given the relationship between the two and Nix's trust in Merriman, I think that they will give Maybin a chance to spend this offseason with Merriman and come to camp. If he cant find a way to start by the end of the preseason, I think he won't make the roster. But given Merrimans presence, I think they give the kid one last chance to make this team.
But if this kid cant start finding a way to stay on the field, he won't make it through Training Camp.
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It's easy to run with this and say that Fairey, Dareus, Cam Jordan is the pick now, but i think Stroud was gone no matter who the #1 is going to be.
^This^
Stroud may have some gas left in the tank, but we are not a good fit for him. If he moves back to a traditional 4-3 along side another good inside guy, he can be solid. Being great seems to be behind him, and he was a problem on this team last year.
I think this shows confidence in our young guys like Troup and Carrington as well. I felt like this move was coming even during the season. He was a guy I just didnt see coming back.
As far as the 3rd pick goes, its not our ONLY pick. Every decision this team makes isnt just about the 3rd pick, we have a whole draft too people and great players can be found throughout it.
Personally, I think our draft order is going to be: (not what I am saying I want, what I think it will be)
1 - Newton
2 - Heyward
3 - LB - Our highest graded LB available
I am not sold on Newton, but I have a feeling he is the guy we take. I dont hate that pick, but I don't love it either just because he still is risky. But, sometimes to get to the next level you have to take a gamble and this kids physical talent level is worthy of the gamble.
I think Heyward will be there in the 2nd and probably the highest rated DL left on the board. Then in the 3rd we have to address LB or even an OT...whichever we have rated higher. I am guessing LB.
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But if QBs take 2-3 years to develop, shouldn't we grab one now, so that he's developed by the time we've filled all those holes?
Personally, I don't want either Newton or Gabbert, both of whom I think will bust. But if QBs truly take so long to develop, you can't afford to wait until all your holes are filled before drafting one.
^This^
Also, why do all Bills fans have Mathews coming to us in the 4th...he wont be there by the 4th and likely gone in the 2nd.
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The Bills picked Marshawn Lynch in 2007; Leon Hall was drafted 6 picks later by the Bengals.
That factoid aside, I don't believe they'll pick Newton. Buddy seems like he's going to draft the guy that he thinks will be the best football player, and my (only semi-educated) guess is that it won't be a QB at 3.
Gotcha, thats right, got the year wrong on McKelvin...just seems like McKelvin hasnt been living up to expectations for so long it feels like he was drafted in 07...
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If Carucci says it, you can pretty much bet the farm it ain't happening.
Vic is great at reporting the news out of One Bills Drive after events occur (i.e. the T.O. signing or Jauron's firing), but every time he mentions who he expects Buffalo to draft, he's completely wrong (i.e. we're trading up for A.J. Hawk or Michael Huff in 2006, the team loves CB Leon Hall in 2007, etc.).
Yeah, but looking at those drafts, we got players who played those same posistions...Huff went and we took Whitner as a surprise...we loved Hall but took McKelvin...so quite maybe our interest was in the player and the position and he was right about that, but the draft just didnt work out to get the specific player as they went before our pick but still took the next best prospect at that position on our board. At number 3, Cam most likely will be there, so if our interest (which statements from our coach and FO indicated so) are in a QB of the future, there is quite the possiblity Cam will be a Bill next year.
I already said I expect us to take Cam as well, not that I think we should (I wont be mad if we do, but I am also not sold on the pick yet), but I feel like he is going to be the pick and have for a while. Him of Gabbert if Gabbert really impresses at the combine. Personally I am in more favor of going D in the first and a QB in the 2nd.
Yet another thread on draft thoughts, scenarios
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
For someone so certain everyone is ignorant, you sure can't seem to understand any piece of logical explanation anyone provides you and just want to stomp your feet. No one is saying he needs to throw 35-40 TD's. What we are saying is that you are OVER valuing his 23 TD's considering EIGHT came in 2 games, one of which he was atrocious in until both starting safeties left the game. He also got 3 meaningless garbage time TD's in 3 blowout losses in the final minute or two of the game.
In other words, his 23 total TD's are no where near as meaningful as you want to weigh them as. His TD production on a game by game basis was not very good, and his TOTALS are inflated by two games which were clearly not his normal production. Do you even realize that about HALF his TOTAL TD's came in his first 4 games, 3 of which we were blown out in?
Again, this is why you solely focus on the totals rather than a game by game analysis, because you need those totals to try and make others look ignorant while ignoring his 9th in the league INT total despite only playing 13 games, his below average ranking in just about every other statistical category that matters to a QB, and the fact that all those numbers are right in line with his career averages.