Alphadawg7
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Posts posted by Alphadawg7
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Holy crap, you just won't give up will you ? Why on earth will you choose the last 9 games ?
And FWIW, Fitz threw 15 INTs the entire season. So you are wrong there also.
This thread is getting moronic cos I have no idea what you really want happening. I get it that you think Fitz sucks and will dig up any stat to prove your point. The sad part is I keep responding and humoring you.
You should learn to read before you insult and put your foot in your mouth. He had FIVE LOST FUMBLES to go with his 11 INT's over his last 9 games and no rushing TD's during that span...making his stats 11 TD's (four in one game) and 16 TURNOVERS. I wrote he had 16 TURNOVERS...you do know what fumbles count as turnovers right? But I get you want to ignore those because it doesnt suppurt your uneccessary insulting rant.
And I pointed out the last 9 games because that is how he finished this year...his LAST 9 games. He started better than he finished...his first 3 games he ended up with inflated stats as we were behind at least 3 scores (NE, JETS, JAX) and got some late garbage time stats, and then he had the big Balt game...after that, he had a pretty below average season with the exception of Cincy where he needed both starting safeties to get hurt before he could stop throwing INT's and Pitt where SJ screwed him over with all the drops.
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Of course you may be right and Fitz is not going to get any better. I don't deny that.
But as regards the bolded paragraph, I would say that one simple explanation for this paradox is that "the all-important yards-per-attempt" stat (and the completion percentage stat) is far from the be-all and end-all measurement of QB play that the OP has asserted throughout this thread, using it as a club against all counter-arguments.
Yes, Fitz did not complete 60% of his passes or average more than 7 yards per attempt. But he was less than on completion per game below that standard, and he did many other things that are important to QB success (such as throw TD passes, run for first downs, make quick decisions that improved the performance of a shaky o-line, etc.), and if you focus on just Alphadawg7's stats you come away with conclusions like Trent Edwards is a better QB than Fitzpatrick. That suggests to me that such an approach is flawed as a universal standard of judgment, even if you put a "generally" in front of it.
We'll see how it plays out next season. If it makes any difference to you, I agree that the Bills could certainly use still better QB play if they are to improve, and if Fitz doesn't get any better the team will eventually hit a wall.
This thread is interesting as the point of the original post I started was simply to dispell the myth that specifically dropped passes are not the reason Fitz's completion % was so low. I have never at any point said completion % is the "be-all and end-all measurement of QB play" at any point. I did state the FACT that QB rating is very lowly regarded by anyone who seriously or professionally evaluates quarterbacks because its fundamentally flawed and inaccurate. That doesnt mean its not ever a good gauge, its just not reliable so they care less about that then they do for the trinity of comp %, ypa, and 3rd conversions.
NO ONE STAT is the "be all and end all" for any position in any sport, and I have been far from claiming that. If it was, then Trent would be a hot prospect with his infalted comp %, but everyone knows thats because he throws the bulk of his passes under 5 yards. Just like with any stat, its a starting point...trust me, there are dozens of stats the coaches value highly that you wont find on your ESPN stat check. Fitz OBVIOUSLY brings other good things to the table, things I have praised him for continuously in this thread and other threads...that doesnt change the fact that he struggles mightily with accuracy and as along as that continues he will struggle to be a consistently effective QB in this league.
And like I said before, there are exceptions to every common occurence, rule, philosophy, etc in every aspect of life. So all these people trying to find those exceptions about accuracy are really missing the point of the entire thread which was simply: Fitz's dismal completion % was not because of dropped passes in comparison to the other QB's in the NFL.
I also find it interesting that the one post in here that keeps getting ignored is the one about the exaggeration going on around here about how good he was this year. By focusing only on his TD totals, it looks more like he had a good year...yet when you go game by game, he actually only had 4 solid or good ones and 9 below average to awful ones.
In fact, there is only one stat anyone can ever point to and that was his TD totals...yet half of his TD's came in his first 4 games.
Does anyone here even realize that in the last 9 games of the season he had 12 TD'S AND 16 TURNOVERS? I mean, lets be honest here, thats not very good, especially 4 of them came in one game where he benefited greatly from both starting safeties getting knocked out of the game as he was atrocious up to that point against Cincy.
I get people love the guy, but I prefer to keep my personal like for the guy aside when I am being honest about his season and short comings.
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What I see is when facts don't support your assertion, you ignore them or try to find a reason they don't matter.
You say QB's who have been in the league as long as Fitz and never eclipsed 60% completion percentage dont generally improve.
I offer examples - you ignore. You say Fitz isn't improving, I offer examples (including improvement completion %) - you say the examples don't matter.
QB rating includes completion percentage and yards per attempt as well as TD and INT. It would be kinda hard to improve QB rating significantly without improving either completion % or YPA or both. I pointed out Fitz completion percentage improved from the previous year. A similar improvement would put him over 60% next year. You ignore that.
Fine, let's look at your other examples.
Fitz is 9th in the league in % of 1st down conversions when passing on 3rd down. 3rd down conversions
Fitz' YPA have been improving the last 3 years. This year it was 6.8, which is 0.1 lower than Peyton Manning and 0.3 better than Matt Ryan. The trend projects to ~7.4 next year.
The value coaches have for "yards per attempt" depends on what offense they run. A successful QB in a Walsh WC-type offense will often have short YPA.
It's a fact Chan Gailey says Fitz has accuracy. He sees the games, film, and practices. My guess is he sees something he believes he can improve. Is he right? Dunno.
I look at Fitz game log for those three "coach valued" statistics you cite, and I see YPA and comp % cycling up and down in a fairly random pattern.
If there is a fall-off, that seems pretty predictable (esp this year) with a decimated OL and WR on a team with no quality depth.
You talk about Fitz "7 year career". Fact: he's only played significantly in 4 seasons and has only started 36 games (about the equivalent of going into his 3rd season).
I'd love a discussion that includes acknowledging points others make, maybe some discussion of what's important and when QB improve.
I kinda get the notion that's not part of the menu in this thread, so I may be leaving the restaurant.
I didnt ignore your examples...you can find exceptions to every rule. Here try this on: I could say that guys bagging groceries dont generally come into the NFL and become MVP and SB MVP by taking a last place team to the SB title. You then can argue back with an example of Kurt Warner and say its simply not true.
See the fundamental disconnect with you is that I said "generally" and you take that as some kind of law I am proclaming as if its impossible. I never said that, I said more often than not guys with as much accuracy issues as him who have been around as long as him dont generally all of a sudden become really accurate passers. Are the exceptions...of course, but its still not the norm.
Just like in the NBA, guys who have spent 5 years being terrible free throw shooters dont generally become good ones. Has it happened...yes...but its not the norm.
All this talk abot how he "only has the equivalent of 3 seaasons" is crap. Tim Tebow said it best when someone asked him this season if he was frustrated he wasnt playing...he said what are you talking about, I play every day in practice. Fitz has had plenty of opportunity in real game experience and practice to develop his accuracy, yet still struggles with it. So, pardon me if I feel its safe to assume that that its more likely that his accuracy issues are going to be something that is part of his game moving forward still.
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Nice! Where do you play golf? Pumpkin Ridge? One of these days I'd like to learn to play. Been on my list.
Pumpkin Ridge is by far one of my favorite courses to play. My step dad and I usually play there when I visit.
Its were Tiger won all his amatuer titles
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Quiet. Who cares about converting 3rd downs or being successful in the red zone? Fitz doesn't complete dump off bases like Edwards and have 60+ completion %. That's all that's important.
P.S. IIRC, you were one of the main people killing Trent Edwards. Congrats, you were right. However, it's jsut funny that you are knocking Fitz for one of the stats Edwards truly excelled in. It's a bit backwards.
Come on man...you cant even compare this to that.
And if you go back and read what I wrote about Trent you will see the whole time I kept saying he is NOT an accurate passer and that his completion % is heavily skewed because all he does is dump off. Fitz on the other hand lives up to his completion % as you can see it in every game...his accuracy issues come in to play many times almost every time he steps on to the field. The guy even struggles with screen passes.
Thats the standard on TSW though...if you are honest about a beloved players short comings then you just "hate" the guy, are bashing him, or on some kind of "crusade". I mean its ridiculous on here some times as you can not even have an honest conversation about a player unless you are swinging on his nuts. Funny you mention Trent though...I took a lot of crap about Trent, and yet that didn't change what I was saying about his flaws that were dead on accurate, and I was saying that when we were 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, under Trent.
I dont bash Fitz...I love how he plays, think he was great for this team, think he is a good player to groom a young prospect behind, and is a good teammate. Still doesnt change his short comings and his resulting many more bad games than good ones thus far.
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So completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 3rd down conversions are the golden stats for judging QB's?
Here's a QB A in 2008: He completed 65.5% of his passes (vs. Fitz's 57.8 this year), and averaged 7.2 yards per attempt (vs. Fitz's 6.8 yds per attempt). I don't have available their 3rd down percentages.
By your measure (if that's what really matters to coaches, as you say), you would want QB A over Fitz every day of the week, right?
QB A = Trent Edwards.
Your obsession with completion percentage (when Fitz could go over 60% next season by completing 10 more passes than he did this year) is distorted. If Fitz checked down on every sedon pass, his completion percentage would go over 60% easily. That would not make him a better QB.
I really don't know what the point of this argument is any more. You want somebody else at QB? You want the Bills to draft a QB in the first round? WHO? I really can't figure out what you want.
So I'll leave it at that.
You can mock it all you want...you can find an exception for every rule, guideline, standard, common practice, thought, philosophy, mindless thought in every single thing in lifes existence. But, that doesnt change the fact that the 3 key areas most coaches put a lot of emphasis on when evaluating the effectiveness of a QB are those 3 areas. There are plenty of other things they evaluate and measure too...stats that you won't find tracked on ESPN.com, but those are always held in high regard.
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I voted for grab him if he falls to us in the 2nd, but I would also be ok with it if we traded back and loaded up on draft picks and took him later in the first. I am not sold on him, in fact, the only reason I find him even intriguing is because of Chans track record with QB's, especially mobile QB's.
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Located just up the street from where I live. Beautiful campus and they have this walking/running path that surrounds the campus for their employees and the public to use. It's a nice quiet walk with neat views of the campus.
As for the Unis? I wonder if Phil Knight has ADD.
My parents live in Tigard and I have been to the head quarters, its crazy. That path is awesome too. I never take my golf clubs with me to Oregon (I live in CA) because when I go play there all the rental clubs at every golf course are all top of the line Nike Clubs. I liked them so much I switched from Pings to Nikes last year.
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They could just as likely take AJ Green to bolster that anemic offense, or Peterson at CB.
Yeah, I think Rivera being a D coach does tip the scales a little bit to a defensive player, but AJ Green still is a major need on that team. Peterson at CB is also a strong option, but I just have a real hard time picturing a DB going #1 overall. So, I think it most likely will be Fairley, Green, or whatever DE they have ranked highest. If I had to guess right now, I think I would still go Green as they are going to want to try and develop Claussen as well as add some excitement to that team.
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I would assume DC which I would love over our own schmuck
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Best unis I have ever seen. Wouldn't mind the bills following the same pattern. Maybe they could win like the ducks then too.
I loved the Unis...the carbon fiber concept work on the helmets, numbers, logos, etc make them look strong and the neon gives an elimate of speed...what a great combo. Nike hooked them up (Nike headquarters is in Oregon, so everything there is Nike if you didnt know). Best helmets I had scene as well.
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I knew this reaction was coming as I saw the highlights on NFL Network, and thought "Ohh great, here we go with the Marshawn is awesome, and Nix/gailey are stupid" threads. I am not going to judge him or any other player on one game, or one season, let alone one run. Yes, the run was amazing, and since he is so slow and indecisive, every guy on defense had a crack at him, and maybe even a few more than once. I will say that on film it looked impressive, and he looked strong indeed, but my point here is that he has proven time and time again that he is not capable of doing that all the time, or even for games at a time. I will be the very last person on earth to miss him, simply due to the fact I never saw him as an elite back, and unless this marvelous run has converted him from now forward into an elite player, I don't see what the fuss is. I still believe the Bills did the right thing. The guy wanted out anyway. In case anyone has been paying attention, his stats have been average at best since the trade.
What no one seems to point out is that up until that game, Marshawn has been a bust in Sea. He has struggled all season, and this was their first 100 yard game by a RB this season. He has been indecisive, dancing at the line, and slow to the hole all season for them. It was a great run, no doubt, but as a whole that trade had not worked out for Sea thus far until that run.
We will see what he can do for them moving forward, but to this point he had struggled there for the most part.
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It's puzzling to me how people who say "facts are facts" are often so very selective in which facts they choose to examine and which facts they choose to
His QB rating improved 12 points between two previous years, and this year, from 70% to 82%. This improvement reflects the following: his TD% went up more than 1%, his INT% went down 1%. His accuracy also improved 2% from last year, from 56% to 58%. He had a previous year where his completion percentage was higher, 59% in CIN under a more functional offensive system than last year in B'lo IMHO.
Coaches have very little regard for QB rating in case you were not aware. It carries very little weight as its a fundamentally flawed rating system and an unreliable measure of a QB's effectiveness. The 3 most important stats coaches look at for determining a quarterbacks effectiveness are completion %, yards per attempt, and 3rd down efficiency. None of those 3 are areas where Fitz has been strong in any part of his career.
I get why people are defending him, because I like him too. Still, that doesnt change the fact that he struggles with accuraccy.
As far as his TD improvement went...lets be honest, he got 8 of those TD's in 2 games (one of which he stunk in until both safeties got knocked out).
Lets be honest, Fitz only had solid or good games against:
Balt, Cincy, Pit, and Miami and yet his 2 straignt INT's in Balt gave away our lead for good and forced us to play catch up all game, and he got bailed out in Cincy when the 2 starting safeties got hurt because he was awful that game prior to that(not to mention how he threw 3 INT's in his first 3 drives, but one was reversed because of roughing the passer) and his Miami game was just ok. Pitt was a good game for him as he came up big finally with game on the line but SJ dropped it.
Lets look at the rest of his games:
NE - was ok considering he just gotten the job, but struggled to move the ball a lot in that game, got a garbage time TD at end.
NYJ - was terrible all game, got a garbage time TD at end.
JAC - started strong, but disappeared in the 2nd half until he got a garbage time TD with one min left in the game.
KC - was awful all game with the exception of a single drive. Throws INT when we are driving for win in regulation then goes on to complete just 33% of his passes in OT including missing a wide open Spiller to win game BEFORE we missed the long kick.
CHI - Struggled most of the game, threw game ending INT again.
DET - Struggled most of the game to move the ball
MIN - Was awful again this game
CLE - Another bad game
NE - Horrendous game
So while I get people love him, heck I love the way he plays too, but the reality of how well he played this season is getting grossly exaggerated. I get it, because next to Trent he is tremendous, but compared to good NFL QB's he is bottom half of the league and maybe even bottom 3rd.
Funny thing is, people talk about how he was thrown into the lineup and thats why he stuggled...well for your information:
1. He had at least 2 TD's in his firt 3 games, yet only accomplished this 3 more times in the next 10.
2. His 3 best comp % games all occured in his first 4 starts.
3. He threw 11 of his TD's in his first 4 games and only managed 12 over his next 9 games (4 of which came in one game)
4. In his first 3 starts he had only one game with a turnover. He would only have on game the rest of the year without a turnover after that.
So, it seems he started a lot better than he finished, so that theory doesnt excatly hold water either. Sorry
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That sound you hear is Alphadog's fingernails scraping the bottom of the barrel attempting to come up with a counter argument. Every close game ever played could have turned around if the QB had completed one more pass in a crucial moment. This is a laughable argument.
You have lost whatever scraps of credibility you have so far retained with this post.
LOL...what counter argument...I am not the one scrapping the bottom of the barrel to come up with any and every kind of excuse to validate his struggles with accuracy.
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Of course, in almost 3 hours, no one has answered my question. If Evans s**** so bad, how do you think he would do on any of the current playoff teams next year? How would you project his performance if Brady, Brees, Mannning, Vick or Matt Ryan were throwing him passes?
I will answer your question:
NE - Dangerous weapon for Brady who would really utilize his big play capability, especially how they spread the ball around and they cant shift so much attention to him.
Indy - MAJOR factor with Collie out and Mannings accuracy and how often they pass.
NO - Factor, but not as much as he could be on other teams...Brees has lots of people he throws to (multiple TE's, all his RB's and all the WR's) and he would just be another weapon in the arsenal. While he would be capable of a big game any week, more likely the ball gets spread around so much that no one really has huge game.
Phi - Dangerous weapon given all the attention DJ would get along with Maclin...Reid would have all 3 on the field a lot and in that offense coupled with Vicks duel threat, I could see Evans putting up some big games given how much they pass.
ATL - MAJOR factor given all the attention White draws as well as having a potent rushing game. Lee could get a lot of one on one looks and would be capable of putting up some big plays with Ryan tossing him the ball.
So, for the most part, I really feel like Lee would have a sizeable impact on the passing games of the teams you mentioned.
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I don't know if it's been pointed out already, but given that Fitz threw the ball 441 times and completed 255, in order to get his completion percentage up to 60% he would have to complete only 9 more passes over the course of the season. Over 13 games that is 0.7 more completions per game. Over 16 games that is 0.56 more completions per game.
To get to 63% he would have to complete 22 more over the course of the season. Over 13 games that is 1.7 more completions per game, and over 16 games it's 1.5 more completions per game.
So if it's just about completion percentage (and I know it isn't but that's the big complain that is being made here) then we're talking about less than one more completion per game. Does anyone seriously think Fitz can't achieve that?
This doesn't make him THE ONE, but in my mind there's too much obsessing about some magical QB who is going to come here and turn muck into gold.
Its puzzling how anyone can look at this as logical simply because this is also true for the other 26 QB's who complete a higher percentage of passes than Fitz. So if you are going to say he can complete another .56 passes a game to get to 60%, then you have to give the other 26 Quarterbacks that have a better completion the same assumption and the gap between Fitz and them remain. Not to mention, 60% is below average in todays NFL still.
1. He has never completed at least 60% at any point in his 7 year NFL career.
2. When evaluating a QB's effectiveness, the 3 stats a coach evaluates the most are completion %, 3rd Down efficiency, and yards per attempt...none of which are Fitz's better areas.
And, to those acting like 1 more pass a game isnt a big deal...I ask you only to look at the KC game. If he completes just one more pass in regulation (rather than a terribly thrown interception) we have a chance to kick the game winning FG rather than go into OT. Then in OT, if he just completes his last pass attempt (where he missed a wide open Spiller by 7 yards in the end zone to win the game) we win that game. If Vick completes his last pass of the GB game, Phi advances in the playoffs. In the NFl, one pass can often be the difference in winning and losing.
The facts are the facts...Fitz has never been accurate, still struggled with accuracy this year...you can spin it any way you want, but what ever liberties you give to Fitz, you have to make the same assumptions for the other 26 QB's who have a better completion % otherwise its meaningless since it didnt happen.
He may be able to approve his accuracy next year, but QB's who have been in the league as long as him and never eclipsed 60% completion percentage dont generally suddenly jump to 65% just because, so I have my doubts. I can honestly say that I really hope he does, I love the way he plays, I just dont think his cieling is much higher than it was this year.
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I was listening this morning to a couple of different shows on the ESPN network and can't remember which show it was but i heard that Kevin Kolb said that he wanted to be a starter on a team not a back up . One of the announcers said that he may put pressure on the Eagles to trade him .
With that and the history of all of the people going from the Bills to the Eagles in past years (Peters , April , Jauron , Bell) i started thinking about some things that had been brought up on BB.com .
On the Thurman Thomas show interview with Chan Gailey i think it was there was mention made of the log jam at WR the Bills may have with Roscoe , Evans , Easley all coming back off injury & then Jones , Nelson , Roosevelt all stepping up and making plays plus the others that managed to stay healthy .
I for one this year have been on the wagon not only because of Lee Evans lack of production but large contract to see if we might be able to trade him for a position that may be in need of up grade or look to the future .
Then i heard what they were saying about Kolb on ESPN & thought BINGO !! the Eagles could use another WR & it's a place that Evans would have a chance to go to the play offs a validate his career log jam eased a bit monies freed up for other's or used for Kolb . Plus Kolb when put on the field has done some great things & has the arm to play in the elements of the Ralph !
I don't really like the idea of having to put Fitz on as a back up again seeing the intangibles that he brings to the team & he is a Buffalo type of guy if i've ever seen one , but even Gailey himself said that he can't see Fitz being in a different role than our starting QB next year but doesn't rule out any possibilities .
I think it would be better served to have some one a bit more proven in the NFL brought in rather than a rookie . Because let's face it after the last game i think Brohms future in Buffalo is all but over . So we'll have to bring in some one else anyway .
Well there it is in a nut shell , i thought i would put it out there & see if you all thought that the trade would be of equal value for both teams with all considered and just what your thoughts were .
So lay it on me good or bad !! I can take i have to i'm a BIlls fan 4 life !! GO BILLS !!!!
How does this make any sense at all? Eagles are set at WR with DJ and Maclin and the likes of players like Avant. DJ and Evans are very similar types of players, except DJ is younger and returns kicks too.
Kolb to Buffalo makes sense, but trading Lee does not. Not to mention, adding Kolb but subtracting Lee hurts Kolb once he gets here. We have a log jam of PROSPECTS, not proven WR's. Roscoe has never had a big year and is very small and will have a hard time staying healthy with a lofty amount of touches. SJ has proven that he is NOT a #1 WR yet, Easley has never stepped foot on to the field, and the rest of the guys on our squad are intriguing yet have proven nothing thus far.
As of right now, our best WR on this football team is still Evans, especially in terms of defensive attention. If you are going to bring in a young QB, the last thing we should do is trade away one of his best weapons. Lets see if Kolb can utilize him first before we decide to trade him away. Not to mention, all this talk about his contract is crazy...Lee doesnt make as much as posters on here claim he does next year and his salary in NO WAY impacts this roster in a negative way. We have plenty of other money to spend.
I just find it funny that every one complains about Ralph as if he doesnt spend money, then you complain about Lee's contract as if its holding this team back, which it clearly isnt.
A draft pick for Kolb is by far the more likely scenario and the one that makes the most sense for both teams.
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I don't belive Fitz is the second coming of Joe Montana, but he did a serviceable job this year. I would love it if the Bills had a sure thing QB sitting on the bench getting ready to start his long HOF career. They don't have that person yet. I do believe if you are drafting at 3 you better grab a sure thing blue chip player. I don't want a reach, project, questionable character type player.
My point for this reply was, that you say you didn't start this thread to bash him, and yet you talk about Int's that didn't happen due to penalties, or drops. I'm pretty sure other Qb's had the same thing happen. You take all the stats and list them as they are the only truth. At that point the one stat that you want to elaborate on is the one that would have him throw more int's. Be honest. It's like Fox News saying they don't lean to the right or CNN saying they don't lean to the left.
My gut instinct is that he will not be a consistent top 10 Qb in the league. I also think he can get you deep if you have good players around him(see Sanchez). If a Qb is there at some point and is higher on your draft board then another position then take him. He is a Qb that will fill the role until we find the real one.
That stat is fact, he is tied for 9th in the league for INT's yet only played 13 games. And its also a fact he threw a lot of other would be INT's...not tipped balls...but balls right directly into the hands of the defender who flat out dropped it. I mean, he had 3 in KC alone. Those are facts, and while it is true that all QB's have this happen, its worth noting that he got fortunate an awful lot of times in 13 games with these drops that he threw right to the defender. Again, I am not counting tipped passes (either by our own guys or the D Line), just passes he delivered directly to the defense that failed to complete the easy catch.
Talking about the facts is just that...a discussion of facts. There is a difference of bashing a guy and being critical of the performance delivered on the field. I won't bash Fitz because I completely appreciate and respect how he plays the game. That being said, that doesn't aboslve him from criticism about his play.
Same goes for Stevie. I was high on him when we drafted him, I was high on his potential last year, I was high on him coming into this season. I actually was not surprised by his break out this year. I was surprised by his dropsies. I have been equally critical of him this year despite liking the kid. Too many times he had an opportunity to make a play that we needed and didn't, including defending a couple of Fitz's INT's this year. IMO, he is no where near a #1 option right now and was the benefit of the extra attention Lee got. In fact, most people dont even realize this, but SJ only had 3 games this year over 70 yards recieving. Not exactly #1 material when you add that in with his mental lapses this year. I still like the kid, am high on his potential, but I think the jury is still out on whether or not he can develop into a true #1 at this point.
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As soon as I saw the author of this thread, I knew exactly what this was about.
It's a broken record with Alpha. Sorry brah
LOL, well maybe if in every single thread that had to do with anything about Fitz didnt have dozens of people inaccurately stating how we had all these drops and thats the reason for his low completion percentage, struggles, etc.
Hence its own thread to just display the facts and put this myth to rest
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Percentages are misleading and used when intentionally trying to prove a point i.e. cherry pick one stat to base an entire argument on.
The beat way to make this argument using this stat would be to use the number of passes total per qb then break out the drops pet attempt for the qb an drops per target for wr.
Percent alone tells nothing. It's a fool's stat.
What does that even change? Its a pecentage. Not to mention, the Bills were 17th in the league in dropped passes as a team, but Fitz only played 13 games and balls were dropped in the 3 games he didnt play. That means, he had even FEWER dropped passes then out team total of 26 as not all the dropped passes were ones thrown by Fitz making his completion % even more inexcusable.
My guess is Fitzs also leads the NFL in missing WRs of curls and come back routes by 3+ yards.
And screen passes thrown out of bounds, in the ground, or behind the WR...seriously, I have never seen a QB struggle to complete a screen pass properly as much as he did. Even on completed ones often they were off target causing the RB or WR to have to have to adjust to the ball allowing the D to recover and stuff the play.
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The thing with Fitz throughout his career was that he was inaccurate and has a noodle for an arm. He did a serviceable job coming in and playing well at times. However, he's turnover prone, isn't accurate, and doesn't have a great arm. Color me not impressed. With that said, I wouldn't hate it if we drafted a QB and gave him a year to sit for a year while Fitz played.
I definitely give him props for playing his back side off and helping the offense find some life again. Sadly though, he had more bad games than good, and I feel like he is playing at or near his cieling. I would be fine with him starting while we groomed another prospect as well, I actually love the way he plays. I just don't see a QB who can lead this team for the long term in him.
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This was in another thread, but since it keeps coming up in multiple threads I felt it deserved a seperate topic to finally dispell this myth that Fitz's completion % was so low because of dropped passes in comparison to other teams. Here are the real facts based on the dropped pass stats that have been compiled for this season.
1. Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes.
2. Out of the 16 teams with MORE dropped passes than the Bills, 13 of them had QB's with a higher completion percentage than Fitz
3. Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson.
4. 12 of those 13 QB's with MORE drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%...
5. Fitz completed a lowly 57.8%
6. Bonus fact: He is tied for 9th most INT's this year yet only played in 13 games and got bailed out on many more INT's through unrelated penalties or drops on non-tipped balls that were thrown directly into the hands of the defenders.
Someone started a thread comparing Fitz to the "Big 3", so lets look at the big 3:
1. Indy had the MOST drops and yet the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3%
2. Saints were 7th in drops and yet Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1%
3. NE is 4th in the league in most drops and yet Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9%
So can this excuse for Fitz's accuracy issue be finally put to rest and just realize he isnt very accurate? 13 QB's had more drops than Fitz and yet still managed to complete over 60% of their passes (hasselbeck actually was 59.9% as only exception, still 2% higher than Fitz). Fitz's completion % is low because he isnt a very accurate QB, never has been ever in his entire NFL career...
This wasnt to bash him, but to be honest about what he is versus what he isnt. I love his passion, guts, and grit and he is light years better than Trent ever was...but that doesnt change that he just isnt that accurate and not nearly accurate enough to be a consistently succesful starter in this league.
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I decided to compare Fitz's stats to the big three for 2011, just to see...
Yes, I'm on a pro-Fitz kick, but no I'm not saying he is as good as these guys (or ever will be), just wanted to see how the stats compared.
Fitz obviously only played 13 games, so I averaged his numbers out to 16 games and I included rushing yards since that is
part of his game as well.
...................................................FITZ.................................Manning...........................Brees............................Brady
Games....................................16 (prorated)............................16...................................16.................................16
Pass Attempts...............................542...................................679.................................658...............................492
Pass Completions..........................313...................................450.................................448...............................324
Completion Percentage.................57.8%...............................66.3%...............................68.1%...........................65.9%
Total Yards (Pass & Rush).............4,005................................4,718..............................4,617............................3,930
Passing Yards...............................3,692................................4,700..............................4,620............................3,900
Yards Per Attempt..........................6.8....................................6.9..................................7.0................................7.9
Touchdown Passes.........................28.....................................33....................................33................................36
Interceptions.................................18......................................17....................................22.................................4
Total 1st downs (Pass&rush)..........202...................................255.................................237..............................199
Comp for 1st Downs.....................186....................................253.................................236..............................189
Rushing Yards...............................331......................................1...................................-2.................................30
If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Manning (with these numbers) he would have had 4,623 yds to Peyton's 4,700
(77 yards less or 5 yards less per game) and he would have had 35 TDs to Peyton's 33; INTs would go up however to 22 for Fitz
compared to 17 for Peyton...I know that's all speculative, but its interesting nonetheless.
Fitz's yards per attempt were similar to Manning and Brees and he had more total yards than Brady on the season (including rushing).
The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) and TD/INT ratio versus Brady.
Granted the big three didn't have career years this season (except for Brady's TD/INT%), but they also all had better offensive lines, more proven
skill players, and have been in their offensive system for multiple years. Fitz's stats look pretty good to me for a guy with a lot less playing
time and in his first year in a new system. If he can improve his completion % with a better O-line and more experience then we have a pretty
good QB (I know a lot of you think he can't improve his accuracy, but I'm not so sure...not having to run for your life helps a lot).
Not every team can have an elite QB; at any given time there are probably only 3-5 teams of 32 that have an elite QB. So, I'm happy we at least have
Fitz and not another Trent Edwards, J.P., etc. I think Fitz can win in this league with the right pieces around him.
What say you?
Go Bills!
You do realize that you can do this with a lot of QB's in the NFL right? For example Alex Smith had the same number of attempts as Manning he would have the same amount of yards and 28 TD's. Jason Campbell would have almost 300 more yards than Manning...David Garrard would have almost 400 yards more and 41 TD's.
This is how ridiculous this comparison is. I mean, it would project Garrard out to almost 5,100 yards and 41 TD's!!! Do you know why these QB's dont have these stats and this many attempts? Because they were not good enough to keep drives going long enough to accumulate these stats. They all play the same amount of game time, in fact, we passed a lot this year, or at least tried to. Its the inablility to execute that was the problem.
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Do you realize that Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes and that out of the 16 teams with more dropped passes than ours that 13 of those teams had QB's with higher completion percentage than Fitz? In fact Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson.
In fact, 12 of those 13 QB's with more drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%...Fitz completed a lowly 57.8%.
So, please let this be the end of the "we had so many drops, so thats why Fitz comp % is low" excuse.
Funny, the team with the most credited drops in the NFL was Indy, and the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3. Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1% and yet the Saints were 7th in the league with 32 drops. Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9% and yet the Patriots were 4th in the league with drops.
Drops are not an official stat because they are so hard to credit. As fans, its easy to think more occur as they pretty much think any ball that touches any part of a WR should be caught regardless of how difficult it is or how bad the pass is. I have seen people on here talk about balls being dropped that were actually knocked out of the recievers hands by the defender making a great play. Given SJ's high profile, its not surprising to think we somehow had more drops than we did.
Truth about Fitz comp % and his accuracy
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by Alphadawg7
Really, this is your reply? I love how when posters cant actually logically explain their argument they just call you an idiot and say what ever you said isnt so while providing nothing of any relevance what so ever to the discussion.
I on the other hand handed you a game by game breakdown of my opinnion of him having just 4 above average to good games with 9 below average to awful games. Since you are incapable of actually replying to that and just spouting off at the mouth with uneccesarry insults because I dont ball wash your favorite player, I will post it here again for your enjoyment:
Lets be honest, Fitz only had solid or good games against:
Balt, Cincy, Pit, and Miami and yet his 2 straignt INT's in Balt gave away our lead for good and forced us to play catch up all game, and he got bailed out in Cincy when the 2 starting safeties got hurt because he was awful that game prior to that(not to mention how he threw 3 INT's in his first 3 drives, but one was reversed because of roughing the passer) and his Miami game was just ok. Pitt was a good game for him as he came up big finally with game on the line but SJ dropped it.
Lets look at the rest of his games:
NE - was ok considering he just gotten the job, but struggled to move the ball a lot in that game, got a garbage time TD at end.
NYJ - was terrible all game, got a garbage time TD at end.
JAC - started strong, but disappeared in the 2nd half until he got a garbage time TD with one min left in the game.
KC - was awful all game with the exception of a single drive. Throws INT when we are driving for win in regulation then goes on to complete just 33% of his passes in OT including missing a wide open Spiller to win game BEFORE we missed the long kick.
CHI - Struggled most of the game, threw game ending INT again.
DET - Struggled most of the game to move the ball
MIN - Was awful again this game
CLE - Another bad game
NE - Horrendous game