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SDS

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  1. MORE FROM BUSHIES ON FLORIDA [11/02 10:24 PM]

     

    An individual close to the Bush campaign reports that the Bush campaign assessment on Florida is that the President should win by about three percentage points when all is said and done.

     

    In Broward, the Bush campaign expected to lose by 250,000 votes, but are down only 174,000 with 84 percent reporting.

     

    In Duvall, the Bush campaign expected to win by a 40,000, and they are set to win with a 50,000 vote margin.

     

    Bush is ahead of the swing counties, and north of the I-4 corridor, Bush is set to double the vote margin of victory he had in 2000.

     

    And the Bush campaign says they will have an absentee vote margin of 150,000.

     

    Adding that all together, they estimate a 3 percentage point win.

  2. I thought Kerry would, too, if only on the logic that such high voter turnout was more indicative of extreme dissatisfaction with the incumbent than anything else, ergo much of the turnout above and beyond normal would swing to Kerry.

     

    Sound reasoning...just wrong, apparently.

    98054[/snapback]

     

    Not really sound.... just reactionary. I'm disappointed. :D

     

    High voter turnout didn't phase me because if you listen to the W campaign - they CLEARLY pulled out all stops on the GOTV. For example, I believe this is for PA, they contacted 300k in 3 months in 2000. This year they contacted 1.6M in 72 friggin' hours....

     

    They may lose Pa, but the ground game for W has been fuggin' impressive.

  3. ANOTHER INSIDE READ ON EXITS [KJL]

    Either there is a huge methodological flaw in the exit polling data, or there has been a transformative change in the nature of the electorate. The former is far more likely. Which means that much of the media's narrative of the election so far looks to be very much wide of the mark. Imagine that.

     

    Let me explain what I mean. Here are several data points that indicate that something is amiss on the matter of exit polling:

    **In 2000, George W. Bush lost the white Catholic vote in Wisconsin. This time, he appears to be winning it by 10 percentage points. Yet I believe the exit polls have the white Catholic vote shrinking from more than one-third of the population to less than one-quarter. There's no reasonable explanation for it.

    ***In North Carolina, the exit polls show the voting population to be 63 percent women. That is obviously far too large – and it explains why the exit polls have the President up by only one in North Carolina. That figure won't stand up when the votes are counted; the President will carry North Carolina by a wide margin.

    *** The exit polls have President Bush up in South Carolina by only seven points. He will win South Carolina by more than seven; you can take that to the bank. The Latino population makes up a larger percentage of Florida's population than in 2000. The President is carrying the Latino population in Florida by a greater margin than four years ago. Yet the exit polls have Latinos comprising a far smaller voting percentage of the population than four years ago.

    ***In Ohio, the exit polls show the vote among men to be 50-50. The final votes will almost surely be higher than that. ***President Bush is winning 43 percent of the Hispanic vote -- which, if that remains, means he should win re-election.

    ***Florida is a state in which you can measure absentee ballots early to get a good idea of where things stand. Right now we are dominating in absentee ballots in Florida. To be precise: we are leading by 154,000 votes – while in 2000, we won by only 98,000. So we are in much better shape this election that the last on this significant matter.

    It’s worth recalling that in 2000, the final exit polls were significantly different than the actual vote count in at least seven states. And 2000 may be seen as the high-water mark for exit polling, compared to this year.

    Something is clearly amiss. Indeed, this election may be a dagger at the heart of exit polling. The larger point is that we believe the President will not only carry Florida and Ohio; he has a real shot at carrying New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. That doesn't mean he'll carry all those states -- but it does mean that some of the post-mortems you are seeing on television and elsewhere are wildly irresponsible. I should add that when you talk to some very smart political reporters, they will tell you that they are very suspicious of the exit polling data sets. And they should be. We've gone through a similar situation once before, in 2000. You'd think people would learn. But you would be wrong.

    The bottom line is that people need to exercise reasonable judgment and patience; watching some political commentators take to the airwaves before 7:00 p.m. to interpret the results of the election is like watching housepainters pretending to be portrait artists.

    There is an obvious solution to all this: people -- especially reporters and commentators -- should wait until the votes are cast and counted. And until that happens, they should withhold making judgments based on information that is at the very least suspect.

  4. if he is right it is only because of the blind squirrel phenomenon.

     

    Of course he is going to say that. He is going by the same bogus numbers that everyone else is. If he said anything else he would have to justify his statements with no data. Yet, these polls qualify as no "data"...

     

    E. Dole was down by 6 in these polls in 2000 - she won by 9.... The list of similar outcomes is long.

     

    In fact, they did AWAY with the VCS polling in 2000 it was so inaccurate.

  5. I'll throw it once more in the thread before I go shopping for my election party.

     

    -This was from a Lefty Blog (however Drudge seems to be in agreement)

    -They are UN WEIGHTED EXIT Polls (which in 2000 weren't the most acuate thing in the world)

    -It's still very early

     

    But, it's interresting to take a look at early indicators like this...

    97177[/snapback]

     

    exactly what is interesting about a +20 Kerry lead in a dead-locked state like PA?

  6. Kerry's going to win this thing. People dont turn out in record ###s to vote for the incumbent.

    97167[/snapback]

     

    The GOP GOTV is massive this year and beyond anything they have ever done. like an order of magnitude or greater.

     

    Also, the typical marginal democrat vote will be surpressed because the cost of voting is very high this year with the long lines.

     

    Kerry may win, but it isn't because of what you said.

  7. Well, yes and no on the PPP thing.

     

    My opinion on this - and what I intended - was to have certain forums for the day to day discussion of popular non-Bills topics.

     

    However, when MAJOR events occur - say a presidential election - I don't mind spill over to the main board. If we can talk girls and guys dressed as Peter Pan, certainly we can talk about major items like the election.

     

    However, I would expect this to be occur more tomorrow and the days right after...

     

    JMO.

  8. I watched it on TiVo, so I go tot see it in 90 minutes - not 3 hours.

     

    The summary is that Arizona gave the game to us and we - for once - accepted the gift. I'm not sure we had more than one drive all game long over 30 yards. Nearly every score was from an ultra-ultra-short field. Thankfully, we finally cashed in those opportunities instead of pissing them away.

     

    Other than that - our return game was on fire. McGee had a return for a TD and we piled some 250 yards in the return game.

     

    We won with special teams and taking the gifts that resulted from that.

     

    Sam Adams and Ron Edwards had very nice games with constant penetration. They destroyed the middle of AC line.

  9. thanks for noticing - there was once a time where missing bricks would have outraged the masses to the point of mutiny.... Now, I was wondering if anyone was going to mention it.

     

    However, this is a VERY rough stab at getting something presentable. It has a loooong ways to go.

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