Fewell733 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 apparently the bad teams in the NFL are so bad that Vegas can't set lines they can make money on. Bill Simmons linked to this article on how this week was the worst ever for the betting houses: http://www.lvrj.com/sports/rancid-teams-pr...e-65968977.html "'I can't remember an NFL season with this many bad teams,'' said Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay, who has been in the business for 22 years. "No doubt, it was the worst day ever for the books. ''We can't attract money on these poor teams. We keep losing on the same teams. They are not even close to covering.'' ''When you give a team 14 points at home or 15 points at a neutral site, you think you're doing the right thing,'' Kornegay said. ''In the past, you would hardly ever see a team getting 14 points at home. But some of these teams are so terrible, you might see it on a weekly basis. It creates a bad situation for the sports books when the bad teams don't cover, because liability adds up real fast. The bookmakers and oddsmakers need to ''aggressively adjust'' the numbers, Kornegay said, so we might soon be seeing 17- or 20-point favorites in the NFL." I think two obvious things have led to this: 1. Rule changes to increase passing offense - favors teams with very good quarterbacks, makes it easier for them to win big since the opponent will then be playing from behind more quickly and will lead to them making more mistakes check out this article on how passing stats this year are out of control: http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/huddle_u...k-7?eref=fromSI 2. Rookie contracts - it's become far more of a burden than a benefit to having a top 5 draft pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 some great lines this past week. I made a killing on the 1PM games. Lost it on the 4PM and the Sunday nighter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Great for three game teasers if you can get 10, tease a big line down to a near pick em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hire-A-Real-GM/Coach Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Its funny, I crushed a 3 team parlay (NE, GB and INDY) on the 10 am games and thought to myself "why havent i bet against these teams all year!"... Things will change eventually, once you start to see lines of 19 or 20 ...The books still make a killing dont be fooled, the juice is worth the squeeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Most of the Bad teams have very limited offense. When there is a matchup of the two bad teams, i have been taking the dog. It's worked out. I made a ton on the Browns +6 vs Buffalo. Not only was Edwards awful at home (at the time)...the Browns, for whatever reason have the Bills' number. I should've taken the Pack over CLeveland yesterday, it just looked too easy on paper! and of course it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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