thebug Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Wow clearly you don't understand anything I wrote. Nevermind. Yah, you were agreeing with Crayonz, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 No actually I'm not crazy. The OP's argument was logic based, and it's flawed. I'm just pointing out the flaw. I would say that we'd be better off 'letting' teams get a first down on 3rd down in obvious 4 down territory. There is no other way for us to maintain that high a success rate on 4th down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 this from a person who questioned Byrd's commitment for refusing to break NFL rules and attend spring minicamps.what say you now after 5 interceptions in seven games oh sage one? jw Maybe if J rus Byrd practiced more in the spring, he would have been in the games earlier on the schedule. Who knows, maybe he would have had a pick in the NE game and we would have won. There is no doubt he has talent. Committment and preparation are important too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I would say that we'd be better off 'letting' teams get a first down on 3rd down in obvious 4 down territory. There is no other way for us to maintain that high a success rate on 4th down. At least someone is thinking around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Sorry to be negative nancy here, but your logic is really flawed. You have to either look at these events as random (coin flip), or correlated (outcomes in the past have some effect on the outcomes in the future), but you can't treat them as both at the same time. If stopping an opponent on 4th and short is random (coin flip), then even if we've stopped a disproportionately high number of them so far (e.g. lots of heads in a row in a coin flip) the outcome of any future 4th and short will still be 50/50. This is regardless of how they've done in the past because a coin has no memory. If the outcome is correlated (i.e. their defense just happens to be good at 4th and short situations), then how they've done in the past will affect future outcomes but in this case it will affect them positively. Either way, there is no mathematical model (statistical or other) that suggests the Bills can't stop another 4th and short. You must be new around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odon59 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 So you're saying if I flip a coin 100 times it might come up heads every time? The law of averages says it should be around 50/50. Sure it might be 51/49 due to the wieght factor on 1 side of the coin versus the other, but over a full session of coin flipping it will even out. Similarly, over a full football season, the 4th down conversions will even out. Not to get all high and mighty, but this is called regressing to the mean. I know that is technical talk but what it means is that the Bills will probably not stop too many more 4th downs this year. You seriously didn't read a word I wrote. You're assuming 4th and short stops are 50/50 league wide (which you haven't provided any data for) AND you're assuming that the Bills aren't just somehow better than the league average (which they may be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delete This Account Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Maybe if J rus Byrd practiced more in the spring, he would have been in the games earlier on the schedule. Who knows, maybe he would have had a pick in the NE game and we would have won. There is no doubt he has talent. Committment and preparation are important too. wrongo, he still would've missed time because of his sports hernia operation ... but thanks for playing. jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 this from a person who questioned Byrd's commitment for refusing to break NFL rules and attend spring minicamps.what say you now after 5 interceptions in seven games oh sage one? jw Uh-oh, by applying Crayonz statistical analysis, it would appear that he has used up all of his interceptions for this season and at least half of next. We better get Whitner back soon, he has plenty of unused interceptions left for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odon59 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Uh-oh, by applying Crayonz statistical analysis, it would appear that he has used up all of his interceptions for this season and at least half of next. We better get Whitner back soon, he has plenty of unused interceptions left for this year. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 close, it's the team after the Chiefs I was referring to. Yeah I know that - that's why we need to let the Chiefs convert a 4th - once that happens, the Cheatriettes* can't convert the following week 'cause the counter reverts back to zero again. Geez, don't you understand math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 wrongo, he still would've missed time because of his sports hernia operation ... but thanks for playing. jw Or perhaps he faked the injury to avoid practice. Once he got drafted, there was a running stream of excuses for not having to practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 You seriously didn't read a word I wrote. You're assuming 4th and short stops are 50/50 league wide (which you haven't provided any data for) AND you're assuming that the Bills aren't just somehow better than the league average (which they may be). Look, it's ok to be intimidated by advanced concepts like regressing to the mean. It is hard for some people to understand. To sum it up, statistical flukes even out over time. The stoppages the Bills have had are lopsided on a percentage basis. If they are better than the other teams at 4th down then they might beat the norm by a little but not a lot. Right now they are beating it by a lot. Look at it this way, Tiger Woods is the best golfer. He has arguably the biggest current advantage over his competitors in all of sports. Over time this proves out to be true as he wins a lot of tournaments. But he does not exactly get a hole in one on every par 3 he plays. He can't beat the par 3s every time just because he is the best. This might not be the perfect example but I think you get it. Right? I doubt you're calling the Bills defense the Tiger Woods of football so you'd probably agree now that they will start giving up a lot of 4th downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delete This Account Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Or perhaps he faked the injury to avoid practice. Once he got drafted, there was a running stream of excuses for not having to practice. thus the surgery, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 thus the surgery, of course. Were you in the OR? Did you violate Hippo and get his medical records somehow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Were you in the OR? STOP IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 STOP IT! Is this like one of those warnings they give detectives in the movies when they get too close to the truth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delete This Account Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Were you in the OR? Did you violate Hippo and get his medical records somehow? i have been to oregon, yes. but going back to your fourth-down logic, how do you explain the Patriots beating the flip-coin odds by going 16-0, or the Lions beating those same odds by going 0-16. the chances of that happening were out of this world, right? and yet it happened. there's proof of that happening. so who's to say the fourth-down trend doesn't continue? jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Rob Johnson Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 The Bills seem to have stopped a ton of 4th and shorts this year. They stopped another one yesterday. It is certainly good and yesterday's was important, but at this point the odds are not in our favor. We are WAY above the norm in stopping these and the law of averages is bound to catch up with us. It seems to me that it is almost impossible mathematically for us to stop another one for the rest of the season. Maybe one but that would be it. I agree, they should try to keep the opposing teams out of 4th and short situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 i have been to oregon, yes.but going back to your fourth-down logic, how do you explain the Patriots beating the flip-coin odds by going 16-0, or the Lions beating those same odds by going 0-16. the chances of that happening were out of this world, right? and yet it happened. there's proof of that happening. so who's to say the fourth-down trend doesn't continue? jw The Patriots cheated. I could flip 100 heads in a row if I rigged the coin. I suppose it is possible the Bills can steal signals on 4th down, but if so why not steal them every down? As for the Lions, I think Matt Millen's ineptitude is greater than Tiger Woods greatness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delete This Account Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 The Patriots cheated. I could flip 100 heads in a row if I rigged the coin. I suppose it is possible the Bills can steal signals on 4th down, but if so why not steal them every down? As for the Lions, I think Matt Millen's ineptitude is greater than Tiger Woods greatness. well, by your logic, Tiger Woods' chances of winning another tournament are greatly diminished ... likely close to nil by now, eh? jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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