Quick hits on the Draft

[WVUFootball29]

Well, working on mocks seemed pointless, after finishing 5 rounds yesterday I got a text from ESPN saying that Gonzales went to ATL. I had Atlanta taking him in my update and the trade then totally changed how the bottom of the draft would look. So instead of redrafting I'm going to throw out a few things to watch for tomorrow:

 

1. Look for Detroit to shock us all and take Curry with their pick. I know all the talk about contracts with Stafford, but I think they might try to save themselves a few dollars and go with a more sure pick overall.

 

2. Detroit taking Curry opens the flood gates to trades. St. Louis might take Stafford here, or likely they'll trade down with someone wanting a QB (Denver, Jets, ?Browns?) and still be able to find an OT to replace Pace.

 

3. If the Browns don't move up, don't be surprised if Tyson Jackson is their pick. Orakpo for awhile looked like a lock, but questions about his ability to rush in an up position have him relegated to a team with a 4-3 defense in this draft.

 

4. Cincy has been looking like an OT pick, but I'm calling they grab Orakpo if he is there at 6, pushing more OTs our way.

 

5. Buffalo will have its choice of Andre Smith and Michael Oher. Don't really love either, but I'll take Smith over Oher at LT, or vice versa at RT.

 

6. How bad do the Jets want a QB? How many picks can the Lions get? Detroit trading down twice to stockpile picks and still select at 17 and 20 is a possibility, but a remote one. If Detroit trades the first pick to a team wanting Stafford and are in position to draft Sanchez, look for the Jets to move up and get him. Detroit can then take Freeman at 17 and more help later on in the draft

 

7. Pettigrew will be available at 28 if the Ravens don't take him.

 

8. Braylon Edwards may move to NY on draft day if Kenny Britt is available at 29

 

9. Look for New England and Miami to get secondary help in the first 2 rounds

 

10. Local electronics stores jack prices on TVs in Buffalo area after draft day

 

My Bills picks for day 1 (I'm not in love with this draft either)

 

1a Andre Smith

1b Brandon Pettigrew

2 Larry English

3 Choice of Duke Robinson or Kraig Urbik from Wisconsin

[dave mcbride]

Well, working on mocks seemed pointless, after finishing 5 rounds yesterday I got a text from ESPN saying that Gonzales went to ATL. I had Atlanta taking him in my update and the trade then totally changed how the bottom of the draft would look. So instead of redrafting I'm going to throw out a few things to watch for tomorrow:

 

1. Look for Detroit to shock us all and take Curry with their pick. I know all the talk about contracts with Stafford, but I think they might try to save themselves a few dollars and go with a more sure pick overall.

 

2. Detroit taking Curry opens the flood gates to trades. St. Louis might take Stafford here, or likely they'll trade down with someone wanting a QB (Denver, Jets, ?Browns?) and still be able to find an OT to replace Pace.

 

3. If the Browns don't move up, don't be surprised if Tyson Jackson is their pick. Orakpo for awhile looked like a lock, but questions about his ability to rush in an up position have him relegated to a team with a 4-3 defense in this draft.

 

4. Cincy has been looking like an OT pick, but I'm calling they grab Orakpo if he is there at 6, pushing more OTs our way.

 

5. Buffalo will have its choice of Andre Smith and Michael Oher. Don't really love either, but I'll take Smith over Oher at LT, or vice versa at RT.

 

6. How bad do the Jets want a QB? How many picks can the Lions get? Detroit trading down twice to stockpile picks and still select at 17 and 20 is a possibility, but a remote one. If Detroit trades the first pick to a team wanting Stafford and are in position to draft Sanchez, look for the Jets to move up and get him. Detroit can then take Freeman at 17 and more help later on in the draft

 

7. Pettigrew will be available at 28 if the Ravens don't take him.

 

8. Braylon Edwards may move to NY on draft day if Kenny Britt is available at 29

 

9. Look for New England and Miami to get secondary help in the first 2 rounds

 

10. Local electronics stores jack prices on TVs in Buffalo area after draft day

 

My Bills picks for day 1 (I'm not in love with this draft either)

 

1a Andre Smith

1b Brandon Pettigrew

2 Larry English

3 Choice of Duke Robinson or Kraig Urbik from Wisconsin

I'm betting Pettigrew is gone by 15. He plays an important position, and outside of Curry, he seems to be the only blue chipper in the entire draft.

[WVUFootball29]

I'm betting Pettigrew is gone by 15. He plays an important position, and outside of Curry, he seems to be the only blue chipper in the entire draft.

 

Not a huge TE need right now, Philly, Jets and Ravens are the other big ones that could take him, but right now I'm thinking philly takes moreno if he's there, Jets are more than 90% likely to grab a QB or WR first, and it depends on the value on the board, but the Ravens might go CB or WR first.

 

If the Chargers take Moreno then its a good possibility Philly takes Pettigrew

[dave mcbride]

Not a huge TE need right now, Philly, Jets and Ravens are the other big ones that could take him, but right now I'm thinking philly takes moreno if he's there, Jets are more than 90% likely to grab a QB or WR first, and it depends on the value on the board, but the Ravens might go CB or WR first.

 

If the Chargers take Moreno then its a good possibility Philly takes Pettigrew

A lot of teams need good tight ends. There aren't that many.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

St. Louis might take Stafford here, or likely they'll trade down

If Detroit trades the first pick to a team wanting Stafford

I strongly feel the first 4-6 picks are out of bounds for trades. Nobody wants to put together the package it takes to get up that high AND pay the ridiculous salary to boot. Teams would rather let Stafford go and try to make a play for Sanchez down around the #8 slot.

[thebandit27]

1. Look for Detroit to shock us all and take Curry with their pick. I know all the talk about contracts with Stafford, but I think they might try to save themselves a few dollars and go with a more sure pick overall.

 

I believe that you think this will happen, and your logic is okay...up to a point. The problem--as I see it--is that if Detroit selects Curry, how do they justify paying $30M in guaranteed money to a middle LB when MLB isn't in the top 6 or 7 positions in the league in terms of salary? Imagine if Curry did go #1 and plays the middle for Detroit, he'll get a deal that (assuming it's the 5-year $57.5M deal that PFT reports it would be) eclipses the average yearly compensation of Ray Lewis by $3.5M per year. That's absolutely crazy.

 

The top-tier NFL salaries go to QB, OT, and DE. Because of the whopping amount of guaranteed money going to the top 2 or 3 picks, it's really difficult to take anything other than one of those 3 positions. I remember in 2006 maintaining that there was no way Reggie Bush could go #1, because of this specific issue.

 

I respect your opinion, but in light of the salary issue, I have to believe it's either Stafford or Jason Smith.

[stuckincincy]

I strongly feel the first 4-6 picks are out of bounds for trades. Nobody wants to put together the package it takes to get up that high AND pay the ridiculous salary to boot. Teams would rather let Stafford go and try to make a play for Sanchez down around the #8 slot.

 

I agree. There would have to be a tremendous desire, perhaps by a club with fat box and trinket revenue.

[Alphadawg7]

Well, working on mocks seemed pointless, after finishing 5 rounds yesterday I got a text from ESPN saying that Gonzales went to ATL. I had Atlanta taking him in my update and the trade then totally changed how the bottom of the draft would look. So instead of redrafting I'm going to throw out a few things to watch for tomorrow:

 

1. Look for Detroit to shock us all and take Curry with their pick. I know all the talk about contracts with Stafford, but I think they might try to save themselves a few dollars and go with a more sure pick overall.

 

2. Detroit taking Curry opens the flood gates to trades. St. Louis might take Stafford here, or likely they'll trade down with someone wanting a QB (Denver, Jets, ?Browns?) and still be able to find an OT to replace Pace.

 

3. If the Browns don't move up, don't be surprised if Tyson Jackson is their pick. Orakpo for awhile looked like a lock, but questions about his ability to rush in an up position have him relegated to a team with a 4-3 defense in this draft.

 

4. Cincy has been looking like an OT pick, but I'm calling they grab Orakpo if he is there at 6, pushing more OTs our way.

 

5. Buffalo will have its choice of Andre Smith and Michael Oher. Don't really love either, but I'll take Smith over Oher at LT, or vice versa at RT.

 

6. How bad do the Jets want a QB? How many picks can the Lions get? Detroit trading down twice to stockpile picks and still select at 17 and 20 is a possibility, but a remote one. If Detroit trades the first pick to a team wanting Stafford and are in position to draft Sanchez, look for the Jets to move up and get him. Detroit can then take Freeman at 17 and more help later on in the draft

 

7. Pettigrew will be available at 28 if the Ravens don't take him.

 

8. Braylon Edwards may move to NY on draft day if Kenny Britt is available at 29

 

9. Look for New England and Miami to get secondary help in the first 2 rounds

 

10. Local electronics stores jack prices on TVs in Buffalo area after draft day

 

My Bills picks for day 1 (I'm not in love with this draft either)

 

1a Andre Smith

1b Brandon Pettigrew

2 Larry English

3 Choice of Duke Robinson or Kraig Urbik from Wisconsin

 

 

At one point I saw Det passing on Stafford, but honestly, this just isnt going to happen. Stafford will be the pick...they need to put some momentum behind the new regime and logo with the fans, and the best way to do that is with a QB.

 

Personally, I think they SHOULD pass on Stafford...word out of camp is that Culpepper has been looking very good, down 30 lbs and very motivated to have a big year...with Calvin Johnson there he may just surprise a lot of people this year...so I think the presence of Culpepper allows Det to take a player like Curry or OL...

[timba]

I believe that you think this will happen, and your logic is okay...up to a point. The problem--as I see it--is that if Detroit selects Curry, how do they justify paying $30M in guaranteed money to a middle LB when MLB isn't in the top 6 or 7 positions in the league in terms of salary? Imagine if Curry did go #1 and plays the middle for Detroit, he'll get a deal that (assuming it's the 5-year $57.5M deal that PFT reports it would be) eclipses the average yearly compensation of Ray Lewis by $3.5M per year. That's absolutely crazy.

 

The top-tier NFL salaries go to QB, OT, and DE. Because of the whopping amount of guaranteed money going to the top 2 or 3 picks, it's really difficult to take anything other than one of those 3 positions. I remember in 2006 maintaining that there was no way Reggie Bush could go #1, because of this specific issue.

 

I respect your opinion, but in light of the salary issue, I have to believe it's either Stafford or Jason Smith.

 

To be fair, early first round picks are usually towards the highest or THE highest paid at their respective position. There needs to be a cap on rookie signings... way too much money to invest in a player who hasn't played a single professional down.