Steely Dan Posted January 13, 2009 Author Share Posted January 13, 2009 Because they played great last year. They lost to the Saints which blew their chances at a spot in the playoffs. Plus I think they lost that OT game last year against the 49ers that also cost them. I saw nothing but upside. As explained above, I'm going to hedge the bet to get the $50 back. Or I could bet $1000 on Philadelphia to win on the money line and I would win $500. The money line is $200 to win $100. But I don't have the $1000. So, I let it ride. I've been doing this for years. Since 1997. I stood to win about $60,000 in 1998 on Buffalo to win the Superbowl. I think I got it at 60-1 and 80-1. It kept dropping as the season wore on. I think I got it at 26-1 before I stopped. I made a small hedge when Buffalo played Miami. But it didn't cover what I had in the bets. Miami wins and I'm ticked. I was going to hedge big time if Buffalo went to Denver. It didn't happen as we all know. I also had Miami at around 25-1 or 19-1 something like that. But I didn't have that much into the ticket. Also in 1998, I took the Cardinals at 100-1 or 200-1 to win the Superbowl to win around $36,000. I hedged that one when the Cardinals went to Dallas and beat them in the playoffs. But I didn't put huge money down. I also hedged when they went to Minnesota and lost. I think I got most of the money back on the tickets. You've got a lot betting intelligence. More power to ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RLflutie7 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 You've got a lot betting intelligence. More power to ya. FYI: Miami opened at 150-1. I don't remember that. But they did make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpbillsfan Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I can remember back in 99 when the Rams won the SB there were several stories in the St. Louis paper about someone that had put down $1,000 on the Rams to win the SB. Every year this individual put down that bet since the Rams moved to St. Louis. He got 200-1 odds in the pre-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RLflutie7 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I can remember back in 99 when the Rams won the SB there were several stories in the St. Louis paper about someone that had put down $1,000 on the Rams to win the SB. Every year this individual put down that bet since the Rams moved to St. Louis. He got 200-1 odds in the pre-season. I think I heard that story also. I think golfer Phil Mickelson did something similiar. Not sure if it was NFL or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I had $200 on carolina minus 10 & 5 minutes before the game I called the book back & switched it. I do not know what made me do it as I liked Carolina all week. I also had $200 on Tenn(-3), $200 on Philly(+4) & $200 on SD(+7) so basically I went 2-2 for the week & lost $40 on the vig. I made a killing on college bball last weekend though. Went 9-2 & $75 on each game. Won $500. Makes up for the money I lost on the national championship when like an idiot I took Oklahoma. My advice to everybody is if you do not gamble do not start. Anybody that tells you they win money betting sporting events is either lying or is very, very lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I don't understand why the need to hedge the bet? You put down $50 and stand to win $2500. Can you not afford to lose the $50? It is not about losing the $50. If the odds are right & he hedges his bet the correct way he will be guaranteed to win say at least $1000 no matter what happens. I think that is what he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingfish Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Anybody that tells you they win money betting sporting events is either lying or is very, very lucky. I only bet NFL and every season I've at least been in the positive. I bet alot of moneyline underdogs and New England moneyline against the Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I only bet NFL and every season I've at least been in the positive. I bet alot of moneyline underdogs and New England moneyline against the Bills! That is good. Some years I kill them, some years I get killed. This year by my calculations I am down about $1,500(which is not bad considering I bet anywhere from $500 to $1,000 per week). However, I won a football pool for $2,500 in October to more then cover my losses. My book does not take money lines except for the super bowl. I would have a field day if he did. I have bett against the bills when they play NE for 6yrs in a row now. I think I am 10-2 in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingfish Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 That is good. Some years I kill them, some years I get killed. This year by my calculations I am down about $1,500(which is not bad considering I bet anywhere from $500 to $1,000 per week). However, I won a football pool for $2,500 in October to more then cover my losses. My book does not take money lines except for the super bowl. I would have a field day if he did. I have bett against the bills when they play NE for 6yrs in a row now. I think I am 10-2 in that time. I don't bet anywhere near the amount of money you do. I bet about 20$ per game which is enough to make me interested in the bet and not enough to make me feel like I'm going to throw up during the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I don't bet anywhere near the amount of money you do. I bet about 20$ per game which is enough to make me interested in the bet and not enough to make me feel like I'm going to throw up during the game. I only usually bet $25 per game but on a saturday during college bball or college fball I usually bet about 30games. My philosphy which I always tell my wife is I can not lose them all can I? She just gives me a disgusted look. It works out pretty good for me usually. I usually win or lose a few hundred on the weekend going something like 17-10 or something like that. The 10% vig does sometime add up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingfish Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I only usually bet $25 per game but on a saturday during college bball or college fball I usually bet about 30games. My philosphy which I always tell my wife is I can not lose them all can I? She just gives me a disgusted look. It works out pretty good for me usually. I usually win or lose a few hundred on the weekend going something like 17-10 or something like that. The 10% vig does sometime add up though. That's why I love moneyline underdogs in the NFL- All the teams are practically the same and no there's vig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOR Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 My understanding of "hedging ones bet" is trying to partially cover any initial losses (i.e. the original wager placed), i.e. the actual money spent. Not the potential money (from winning the bet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Off the top of my head I can't think of one person who thought the Cardinals would win. I did. I predicted to some friends a few months ago that Arizona would go the Super Bowl. They are built well for a Super Bowl run-- high-powered offense and opportunistic defense. Of course, I also predicted that the Ravens would lose down the stretch, and not make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFFALOTONE Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Hey I gave everyone the winning play on the initial thread with the poll. I told everyone: Philly and Balt in a teaser. I had Carolina and Pitt in a teaser as well. oh well. My play this week: Take Balt and the points, very hard to beat a team 3 strait and Arizona. I think the Giants w/o a deep threat hurt them tremendously. Ari is great at home and their OL can hold up to phillys blitzes. ARI by a TD. Phillys run ends in the desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpbillsfan Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 I think I heard that story also. I think golfer Phil Mickelson did something similiar. Not sure if it was NFL or not. Mickelson put down a huge bet (I think $25,000) on the Ravens the year they won the SB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan_in_raleigh Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Off the top of my head I can't think of one person who thought the Cardinals would win. I wonder how this will affect LV's bottom line? I know Vegas tries to put the spread so both teams will be bet equally but I still see the higher payouts for betting on Arizona hurting them. actually I went with every away team and made out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RLflutie7 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 It is not about losing the $50. If the odds are right & he hedges his bet the correct way he will be guaranteed to win say at least $1000 no matter what happens. I think that is what he meant. You are correct sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RLflutie7 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 I had $200 on carolina minus 10 & 5 minutes before the game I called the book back & switched it. I do not know what made me do it as I liked Carolina all week. I also had $200 on Tenn(-3), $200 on Philly(+4) & $200 on SD(+7) so basically I went 2-2 for the week & lost $40 on the vig. I made a killing on college bball last weekend though. Went 9-2 & $75 on each game. Won $500. Makes up for the money I lost on the national championship when like an idiot I took Oklahoma. My advice to everybody is if you do not gamble do not start. Anybody that tells you they win money betting sporting events is either lying or is very, very lucky. I win on the NFL every year. I can't remember a year that I lost, maybe 2004, but it wasn't a huge loss. I actually won more bets, but I lost $$$bigger wagers. I don't bet more than $50 a game. Most of the time, it's $20 a game, so I don't care. I can't afford to make bets like I used to in the 1990s. I think it's easier to win with smaller bets because you don't second guess yourself and you just make more logical picks. When big money comes into play, emotions take over and stupid picks follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingfish Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 I think it's easier to win with smaller bets because you don't second guess yourself and you just make more logical picks. When big money comes into play, emotions take over and stupid picks follow. Definitely. Small bets gave me big moneyline wins on both of Cleveland's MNF games. I wouldn't have done them if I was forced to bet a few hundred dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbringer Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 I actually had the Cardinals winning outright and the over. Doesn't it figure, though, that they got such a huge lead that they sat on the ball in the 2nd half, and I just missed getting the over. Of course, this was for entertainment purposes only. I've picked the Cardinals to win it all this year. They remind me of the 1st Super Bowl Bills team, but the two big differences to me are their Defense seems to be playing well at the right time, and of course I think the coaching is better on the Cardinals (Marv/Ted should have adjusted sooner to the two down linemen scheme the Giants had) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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