stevestojan Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 I'm in a 14 team league. $175 a man. Non-keeper league. Last year I had 7th pick and got Peyton and then Reggie Wayne on the way back. My RBs were medicore, but that draft spot was nice. 1st overall? Not particularly thrilled with picking 1st and 28th. Do I have to go Tomlinson? Anyone thinking Peterson? Would anyone go Brady ( ) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zevo Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 tomlinson is still the safest bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazed and Amuzed Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 I'm in a 14 team league. $175 a man. Non-keeper league. Last year I had 7th pick and got Peyton and then Reggie Wayne on the way back. My RBs were medicore, but that draft spot was nice. 1st overall? Not particularly thrilled with picking 1st and 28th. Do I have to go Tomlinson? Anyone thinking Peterson? Would anyone go Brady ( ) ? I think any of those 3 would be good picks, I think LT will post the best numbers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taterhill Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 LT...this should not even be a question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fezmid Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 Try trading out of the first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazed and Amuzed Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 Brady is actually not a bad pick. I'm not a fan but He will post numbers, He's got Moss and Welker catching his passes and wether you like them or not those boys can play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted August 10, 2008 Author Share Posted August 10, 2008 Try trading out of the first? Unfortunately not allowed in the league. Peterson seems like the biggest risk. But he could have enormous #s. Obviously Tomlison is safe, but I just don't see Brady falling off from last year. Sadly, I still think the SB loss was a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffal0 Bill5 Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 Unfortunately not allowed in the league. Peterson seems like the biggest risk. But he could have enormous #s. Obviously Tomlison is safe, but I just don't see Brady falling off from last year. Sadly, I still think the SB loss was a fluke. One of the most enjoyable flukes ever I take Brady out of the players you listed. It hurts to say it, but the guy puts up consistent numbers on an almost weekly basis. LT had a slow start last year, and left many people who had him with some early losses to overcome. I have always placed the highest value on RB in the first round. I think I may go QB in the first this year myself. The tough thing with a RB like LT is it never seems to be a slow diminishing of skills. You never know which year is the year you are going to get burnt. Raise your hand if you got Priest Holmes, or even Larry Johnson one year too late. LT put up great numbers in 2007, but it was a signifigant drop in TD's and yardage from 2006. Although Brady will most likely be listed as injured/probable every week all season, I don't look for a drop off in his production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted August 10, 2008 Author Share Posted August 10, 2008 One of the most enjoyable flukes ever I take Brady out of the players you listed. It hurts to say it, but the guy puts up consistent numbers on an almost weekly basis. LT had a slow start last year, and left many people who had him with some early losses to overcome. I have always placed the highest value on RB in the first round. I think I may go QB in the first this year myself. The tough thing with a RB like LT is it never seems to be a slow diminishing of skills. You never know which year is the year you are going to get burnt. Raise your hand if you got Priest Holmes, or even Larry Johnson one year too late. LT put up great numbers in 2007, but it was a signifigant drop in TD's and yardage from 2006. Although Brady will most likely be listed as injured/probable every week all season, I don't look for a drop off in his production. Bingo. I had Priest Holmes in his breakout year (was that 2002?) and got him relatively late. Then the drop off started. I just don't see any way Brady is not stellar this year again. The B word part is that I'll have picks 28 and 29 and I'll likely get two middle of the road RBs. My WR corp will then be hurting. #1 overall in a league this big blows as most would agree that 1-3 are all the same pick depending on who has em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffal0 Bill5 Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 For me fantasy football is alot like golf. The more I try, and the more I think I'm learning, the worse I get, but you can't bring yourself to just give up and walk away. As a Bills fan I hate to say it, but for offense I hope to ride the Patriots and Cowboys for offense pretty heavy. I'm sure I'll get laughed at, but I'm gonna get Jason Witten pretty early on. Here's his 2007 stats: REC 96 YDS 1,145 AVG 11.9 TDS 7 I think he is poised to improve on that. I'm in a league where you must play a TE. I'm tired of limited production in that spot, because I focus too heavily on WR's. If the WR's go too fast, there are a handful of TE's (I like Witten the best) that put up pretty close to WR numbers. We draft really close to the start of the regular season, so I haven't really started to study it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 Picking at the other end is a lot worse -- especially in a deep league. Take LT and then you can still get a decent #2RB and 2d tier WR at the next turn. No one is going to have a team without weaknesses in a 14 team league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted August 10, 2008 Author Share Posted August 10, 2008 Picking at the other end is a lot worse -- especially in a deep league. Take LT and then you can still get a decent #2RB and 2d tier WR at the next turn. No one is going to have a team without weaknesses in a 14 team league. So, I'm waiting til 60 or so deep for a QB? Yikes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 So, I'm waiting til 60 or so deep for a QB? Yikes.... That'll be fine...you'll get someone like Hasselback or Bulger. Not top tier but solid enough. Plus, you can always get Trent in round 15 as your backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayFinkle Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 So, I'm waiting til 60 or so deep for a QB? Yikes.... Everybody in the league is in the same boat as you. Track who everybody else is taking and draft accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 11, 2008 Share Posted August 11, 2008 14-team leagues suck, but the #1 overall is the best slot there is this year in any league. Unless you are starting 2 QBs or have some crazy scoring system, you have to take LT. Then, on the way back, you have a shot at picking up guys like Romo, Edwards, Holt, CJ, Colston, AJ, etc. I suspect the best way to go will be RB/WR/WR or RB/QB/WR. Having 3 picks out of the top 29, including the best RB in FF = win. I'll see tomorrow about running some mocks to get a better feel for #1 in a 14-team league. Since I'm not in any 14ers, I haven't ran any mocks in them yet this year. For me fantasy football is alot like golf. The more I try, and the more I think I'm learning, the worse I get, but you can't bring yourself to just give up and walk away. As a Bills fan I hate to say it, but for offense I hope to ride the Patriots and Cowboys for offense pretty heavy. I'm sure I'll get laughed at, but I'm gonna get Jason Witten pretty early on. Here's his 2007 stats: REC 96 YDS 1,145 AVG 11.9 TDS 7 I think he is poised to improve on that. I'm in a league where you must play a TE. I'm tired of limited production in that spot, because I focus too heavily on WR's. If the WR's go too fast, there are a handful of TE's (I like Witten the best) that put up pretty close to WR numbers. We draft really close to the start of the regular season, so I haven't really started to study it yet. Fantasy Football isn't all that difficult if you understand VBD, especially if you are to the point of using ZVBD. The principle is simple: the player you should take isn't the one that scores the highest, but is the one that has the biggest dropoff between him and the rest of the guys at that position. ZVBD (dynamic value based drafting) takes it up a notch, allowing you to dymanically calculate the relative value of a player not just to a pre-determined baseline, but actually take into account the players who have already been chosen and who is left on the board. Basically, by using projections that you've made up, and some mathematical forumlas, you can easily determine which player will be most valuable relative to the other players left on the board, provided the projections you are using turn out to be accurate (the projections are what separates the men from the boys). In stojan's example above, its a no-brainer to go with LT, simply because LT is much more likely to have a huge gap between himself and the #2 RB than Brady is the #2 QB, especially if you take into account statistical trends in the NFL, where after a career year, the QB averages 15-20 less TDs, and Brady's numbers haven't been all *that* good up until last year. That's not to say I think Brady isn't deserving of the #1 QB slot (he obviously is), its just much more likely that a player like Romo or Brees will be pretty close to Brady than a player like ADP being pretty close to LT, based off of history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffal0 Bill5 Posted August 11, 2008 Share Posted August 11, 2008 There are too many variables. You mentioned Brees. He was my QB last year, and I was thrilled to have him after the season he had in 2006. Thrilled, until about 5 games into the season. Injury often blows you out of the water as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 11, 2008 Share Posted August 11, 2008 There are too many variables. You mentioned Brees. He was my QB last year, and I was thrilled to have him after the season he had in 2006. Thrilled, until about 5 games into the season. Injury often blows you out of the water as well. While Brees had a down start to the season, he ended up with 4423 yards, 28 TDs, and just 18 INTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justice Posted August 11, 2008 Share Posted August 11, 2008 Unfortunately not allowed in the league. Peterson seems like the biggest risk. But he could have enormous #s. Obviously Tomlison is safe, but I just don't see Brady falling off from last year. Sadly, I still think the SB loss was a fluke. No trades allowed in your league on draft day?? That sux. I already made a couple of trades in my league. I drew the 9th spot in a 12 man league and managed to land another 1st round pick (8th overall) for my 2nd and 4th rounders. Then I traded my 3rd round pick for two 4th rounders (the 4th and 5th picks in the 4th rd). I'm thinking about taking Brees (QB's are worth a lot in my league) and Lynch with my first rounders and Thomas Jones or Willie Parker in the 4th along with the best available WR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 11, 2008 Share Posted August 11, 2008 Some mocks for the 14 team #1 pick overall with LT2: Mock #1 - All teams based on ADP (cept #1) ===================== LT2 Chad Johnson Brandon Jacobs Selvin Young Jerricho Cotchery Minnesota Defense David Garrard Owen Daniels Ted Ginn Zach Miller Brett Favre Kevin Walter A bit weak at backup WR, but have 3 good RBs, 2 solid WRs, the best defense, two QBs with solid potential, and two TEs who are good TEBC guys. Mock #2 - All teams based on online "expert" cheatsheet (cept #1) ====================================== LT2 Andre Johnson Earnest Graham Fred Taylor Jerricho Cotchery Marc Bulger Santana Moss Phillip Rivers Heath Miller Baltimore LJ Smith Pretty good team here. Have a nice RB backup in Taylor, solid WRs, and decent QBBC/TEBC combos. Mock #3 - Teams based on MFL ADP (cept #1) ======================== LT2 Chad Johnson Jamal Lewis Selvin Young Jerricho Cotchery Joey Galloway David Garrard Zach Miller Vince Young NY Giants LJ Smith Again, pretty solid team. Have 3 RBs, 3 WRs, and a good committee with potential at QB and TE. Now, for the same mocks but with Brady instead of LT2: Mock #1 ======= TB Chad Johnson Ronnie Brown Jerricho Cotchery Tony Gonzalez Deangelo Williams Nate Burleson Pittsburgh D Jerious Norwood Tavaris Jackson Not a bad team, but not the best in the mock that I ran. This team is lacking at RB and will get beat because of it. Mock #2 ====== TB Chad Johnson Brandon Jacobs Selvin Young Jerricho Cotchery Deangelo Williams Owen Daniels Pittsburgh D Ted Ginn Tavaris Jackson This team's not bad, but its lacking depth. If Jacobs gets injured (distinct possibility) or Young doesn't do as well as expected (Shanahan anyone?), you're in trouble. Mock #3 - RB/WR with 2nd and 3rd picks ====== TB Chad Johnson Jamal Lewis Selvin Young LenDale White Joey Galloway Owen Daniels Pittsburgh D Jerious Norwood Reggie Williams This team is just okay, but taking the best player available with your second pick (CJ) forces you to chase RBs the next few rounds. Its not as strong as the mock above. Mock #3 - RB/RB with 2nd and 3rd picks =========== TB Jamal Lewis Brandon Jacobs Selvin Young Jerricho Cotchery Joey Galloway Bobby Engram Pittsburgh D Zach Miller Tavaris Jackson LJ Smith This team is even worse. Taking 2 RBs forces you to chase making up the advantage you give up in other areas (namely, at WR), which is just about impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted August 11, 2008 Share Posted August 11, 2008 Brady is actually not a bad pick. I'm not a fan but He will post numbers, He's got Moss and Welker catching his passes and wether you like them or not those boys can play. nahhhhh.....get LT and then a worthy #1 WR. Palmer should be there in the 3rd coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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