PFW's "The Way We Hear It"

[Orton's Arm]

it's very interesting that this specific issue was raised by a fan named Jason in last week's Fan Friday on bb.com. Scroll down to question #6.

 

Chris Brown's response is money:

While you raise a valid point that a first-round cornerback who lives up to his potential will likely be difficult to re-sign in five years, that's not the way to build a successful football team. While you always have to look a couple of years into the future, you can't say, 'Well we'll only have this guy for five years so why bother?' What if he has ridiculous talent and is the difference in putting your team over the top and you go to the playoffs for four straight seasons and maybe even a Super Bowl? You don't pass on a guy that can help bring that kind of success because you might not be able to re-sign him in five years. You gladly add that talent to your team and make the most of it for those five years. The NFL has become a very transient league. Franchise quarterbacks and franchise pass rushers are the only players that more often than not stay in one place. Every other player at every other position is on loan it seems so I understand the frustration, but you don't turn your back on talent you think helps your team, provided the player is an upstanding citizen.

 

The best-articulated argument in favor of taking a cornerback in round 1 is the one Chris Brown made; so I'll respond to it. I think there need to be two phases to rebuilding a team. The first is where you build the core of the team; acquiring players who have the potential to help you for 10 years or more. Ideally, a good number of those players will be game changers: defensive ends that need to be double-teams, offensive linemen that can block someone else's Bruce Smith one-on-one, receivers that need double coverage, guys like that. You keep drafting guys like that until you have a solid core.

 

Once that solid core has been built, your team should start experiencing some success. You'll start to realize that you're maybe a few players away from serious Super Bowl contention. At that point, you can afford the luxury of going to step 2: using draft picks on guys who can maybe give you 5 - 6 years before they're through.

 

This is where my team building philosophy differs substantially from TD's. TD jumped straight into step 2 (using picks on transitory players) without having the discipline or the patience to properly execute step 1 (use the draft to build a solid core). Arguably, TD's most successful draft for the Bills was his first--the draft of 2001. His first pick in that draft was for a CB; presumably to replace Antoine Winfield. Given that TD was the one who let Antoine Winfield walk in free agency, it stood to reason that he'd ultimately end up letting Nate Clements walk too, after his contract was up. TD used a second round on a RB; despite the fact RBs have short careers. Two years later, he used a first round pick to draft a replacement for said running back.

 

TD's tactics (i.e., player selection) were strong, his strategy was weak. By the start of the 2007 season, the only two things we had to show for that draft were Aaron Schobel and the 3rd round pick we got for Henry.

 

As "transitory" as the league may be, good teams are not built by people who act as TD acted while he was here in Buffalo. Peyton Manning has been taking snaps for Indy his whole career. Marvin Harrison has been playing for Indy his whole career. Jeff Saturday has been the Colts' center since 2000. With core players like that, the Colts have had an explosive offense every year for quite some time. Without a similar core of players, the Bills have not been in a position to be as good a team as the Colts. The Colts will remain the better team, until their core becomes old/ineffective, or until the Bills succeed in building a solid core of their own.

 

They're partially on their way to doing so. Guys like Poz, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, John McCargo, etc., provide a nucleus of players who should be able to make solid contributions for a long time. I'm pleased with the way the management has built this nucleus, but more work is required. The team is not yet in a position where it can afford to use a first round pick on a guy who will leave after his first contract is over. The nucleus we're building needs a big, physical WR, it needs a TE, it needs another DE, it needs a center. It will probably take at least two drafts to fill those holes. And they can all be filled with players who, if successful, will end up spending their entire careers in Buffalo. Once all that's been taken care of, and a solid core put into place, it will then be time to start thinking about using draft picks for players who won't be around for more than 5 - 6 years.

[Bill from NYC]

So you believe the Bills should always have mediocre CB's?

 

Please explain the difference to me. This team has been stocked with 1st round dbs for more than a decade, (at one time we even fielded 2 first round corners) and there are few teams that match, or even approach our playoff drought.

To turn your rhetorical question around, should the Bills always have superior DBs (or even good ones selected at #8), neglect more important areas, and continue to lose? If the Bills draft yet another first round defensive back, it will simply be a continuation of the "playing not to lose" mentality, and it will surely result in losses.

This team is 1 injury away from Duke Preston stinking up the field. He is bad to the point that I am hoping that he will soon be cut, let alone starting for an injured Bills OG. Our DEs are good, but they are on the wrong side of 30. The best TE on the Bills in the last 10 years or so was Riemersma, and he was a possession receiver with bad hands, and no ability to block.

 

You don't fix these problems with 1st round corners. Not if one wants to build a solid franchise.

[1billsfan]

Please explain the difference to me. This taem has been stocked with 1st round dbs for more than a decade, (at one time we even fielded 2 first round corners) and there are few teams that match, or even approach our playoff drought.

To turn your rhetorical question around, should the Bills always have superior DBs (or even good ones selected at #8), neglect more important areas, and continue to lose? If the Bills draft yet another first round defensive back, it will simply be a continuation of the "playing not to lose" mentality, and it will surely result in losses.

This team is 1 injury away from Duke Preston stinking up the field. He is bad to the point that I am hoping that he will soon be cut, let alone starting for an injured Bills OG. Our DEs are good, but they are on the wrong side of 30. The best TE on the bills in the last 10 years or so was Riemersma, and he was a possession receiver with bad hands, and no ability to block.

 

You don't fix these problems with 1st round corners. Not if one wants to build a solid franchise.

 

Also, don't forget that Greer and McGee have been somehow vastly underrated by so many Bills fans that it's reached crazy level. Other than maybe McKelvin, there are no CBs in this years draft that could unseat either Greer or McGee. I think it's funny that fans here want them to draft a freaking cornerback with so many holes to fill on this team, like the ones that you mentioned.

[Bill from NYC]

Also, don't forget that Greer and McGee have been somehow vastly underrated by so many Bills fans that it's reached crazy level. Other than maybe McKelvin, there are no CBs in this years draft that could unseat either Greer or McGee. I think it's funny that fans here want them to draft a freaking cornerback with so many holes to fill on this team, like the ones that you mentioned.

 

Exactly, and didn't we sign a ufa cb to boot? If things are done right, I truly believe that this team will compete this year.

 

PS: If you continue to agree with me, your popularity here will rapidly sink.

[1billsfan]

Exactly, and didn't we sign a ufa cb to boot? If things are done right, I truly believe that this team will compete this year.

 

PS: If you continue to agree with me, your popularity here will rapidly sink.

 

 

Well see Bill. This should be a fun week here at TSW!

[BillsVet]

Fixed.

 

I have a sense that this group will work well together. A blending of ages and perspectives. There's no template or playbook for becomming a 'personnel man.' Bill Poilian was a Mel Kiper wannabe when he started out, producing a draft analysis with his brother that he shopped to anyone in the CFL or NFL that would give him the time of day. At this point, Brandon has a lot more NFL experience than Bill did when he stepped into the job.

 

 

Some owners are strictly moneymen who don't know if a football's stuffed or inflated. Others, like Jones and Rooney, know the game and can add good insight into player selection decisions. As much as TSW slaggs Ralph, I'd put him more in the latter than former category. Ralph can be mercurial, for sure, but I think he's actually pretty knowledgeable about the NFL game. I'd put his 40+ years up against any other owner in the league, a lot of young scouts and certainly all of TSW.

 

Brandon is a bright guy, I'm not arguing that. But taking a sales director and making that person a project manager for a defense contractor isn't going to work, not matter how smart that person is. You cannot change course and become successful without the experience. Despite articles praising Brandon's work on the personnel side, it's been a modest attempt while he handled the business/marketing angle. Modrak has been in scouting for years.

 

And let's not hide who Jauron is either. He's one of only 10 NFL HC's in HISTORY with 100+ games coached and less than a .430 winning percentage. The others are Leeman Bennett, Joe Kuharich, Bart Starr, Norm Van Brocklin, Bruce Coslet, Dom Capers, Ray Perkins, Dan Henning, John McKay, and Marion Campbell. Hardly wonderful company.

 

Again, the Bills are the only team in the NFL without a veritable GM or VP or Personnel. If, and I mean only if, this team isn't successful in 2008, there willbe some changes, and it will give some around here the opportunity to say the team needs to start over again.

[BrooklynBills]

According to the new trade chart that is circulating (not if teams are using it though) if that trade were to happen we would get Philly's 1st and 2nd round picks for our #1 and our early 5th round. That would be pretty close.

 

They could also give us their picks in round #1, 3, 4, and 5 for our #11. That's unlikely, but the value is again close.

 

We should try to acquire a 1st in next year's draft.

 

Does the 11th pick for the 19th pick and a Philly's 2009 1st rounder = fair value?

[Lurker]

But taking a sales director and making that person a project manager for a defense contractor isn't going to work, not matter how smart that person is.

 

Isn't it bit much to equate defense contracting with NFL personnel decision making. It's not rocket surgery.

 

Brandon's been an NFL team exec for more than a decade. Do you think he's only been selling tickets over that time, and not watching games, talking to the coaching and scouting staff, or being a student of the NFL? I don't know about your profession, but in my field, even though I'm a middle manager responsible for one area, I intimately know the entire business and most of what my colleagues' jobs entail. Stepping into a new role for a ten-year vet would not entail that dramatic a learning curve. I'm sure Brandon's been soaking up the entire NFL front office experience over the past 5 years in preparation for a senior exec role and isn't the newbie some would portray him as.

 

And let's not hide who Jauron is either. He's one of only 10 NFL HC's in HISTORY with 100+ games coached and less than a .430 winning percentage. The others are Leeman Bennett, Joe Kuharich, Bart Starr, Norm Van Brocklin, Bruce Coslet, Dom Capers, Ray Perkins, Dan Henning, John McKay, and Marion Campbell. Hardly wonderful company.

 

While I'm by no means measuring DJ for a HOF jacket, I look at the other 31 teams and have to say he's at least in the middle of the pack. Like Marv, his skill set seems most attuned to player selection/development and preparation than game day decision-making, which makes his insight valuable on draft day, IMO.

 

Again, the Bills are the only team in the NFL without a veritable GM or VP or Personnel. If, and I mean only if, this team isn't successful in 2008, there willbe some changes, and it will give some around here the opportunity to say the team needs to start over again.

 

The Panthers Marty Hurney or the 49ers Lal Heneghan are two guys who come to mind that don't fit that mold.

 

You could also add head coach-dominated teams like the Eagles (Tom Heckert’s a younger Modrak), Broncos, Bengals and Bucs, or even the ultimate out layer, the Cowboys as well. Oh yeah, there's the Lions as well...

[tombstone56]

Sounds like a Connor/ Doucet scenario to me...

 

not that far fetched ,,but id be thinking connor ,kelly??

[Lurker]

More legs for the Philly trade up rumor.

[Astrobot]

More legs for the Philly trade up rumor.

 

Very interesting. Maybe the Bills trade-down is already in place!?