Dibs Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 There has been a lot of talk around here lately about what position the better teams draft high in the draft in order to get to the Super Bowl. There is a singular position which virtually guarantees superbowl success. That position is Tight End! In the past 10 drafts there have been 13 TEs drafted in the 1st round. Within 6 seasons of being drafted......6 of the teams that drafted them have gone on to the SB(5 of them winning it). All of the last 5 superbowls have been won by teams within 6 seasons of drafting a TE in the first round. 2 of the last 5 superbowls runner-ups have been by teams within 6 seasons of drafting a TE in the first round. What this means mathematically is that if you draft a TE in the first round, you have a 6 in 13 chance(46%) of making the SB within 6 years......and a 5 in 13 chance(38%) of winning the SB within 6 years. No other position drafted in the 1st round in recent times comes close to the success of drafting a TE. This draft we should ignore what the talent analysts say & use the #11 pick to draft the best TE available. Disclaimer: Though the actual numbers are factually correct.....the conclusion I have drawn is ridiculous and is only meant as an example to show that trying to obtain meaningful insight from what successful teams spend their early draft resources on is futile at best, disingenuous at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 With the 11th pick, the Bills select to trade down and still get the top rated Tight End AND top rated wide receiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 With the 11th pick, the Bills select to trade down and still get the top rated Tight End AND top rated wide receiver. I hope it is that simple. But to trade down, you need a partner. And I definitely think having a TE would be huge for this offense. In my humble opinion, it is more important than receiver. With receiver, we are drafting (hopefulyy if Lee re-signs) a complement. With TE, we need an every down player and impact player. If we got a stud TE, then we won't have as big of a need for a tall receiver but we could draft the best receiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 There has been a lot of talk around here lately about what position the better teams draft high in the draft in order to get to the Super Bowl.There is a singular position which virtually guarantees superbowl success. That position is Tight End! In the past 10 drafts there have been 13 TEs drafted in the 1st round. Within 6 seasons of being drafted......6 of the teams that drafted them have gone on to the SB(5 of them winning it). All of the last 5 superbowls have been won by teams within 6 seasons of drafting a TE in the first round. 2 of the last 5 superbowls runner-ups have been by teams within 6 seasons of drafting a TE in the first round. What this means mathematically is that if you draft a TE in the first round, you have a 6 in 13 chance(46%) of making the SB within 6 years......and a 5 in 13 chance(38%) of winning the SB within 6 years. No other position drafted in the 1st round in recent times comes close to the success of drafting a TE. This draft we should ignore what the talent analysts say & use the #11 pick to draft the best TE available. You know it's stupid to say any one position taken early leads to SB success. I hope you made this thread to prove how stupid that is. I think a team should draft their weakest position high in the draft. That's what makes the most sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamOnDan Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 You know it's stupid to say any one position taken early leads to SB success. I hope you made this thread to prove how stupid that is. I think a team should draft their weakest position high in the draft. That's what makes the most sense to me. TE is arguably our weekest position... My friends call me steely dan neilly. lol! or danimal, danno, dan the man hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snorom Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 there are no TE's worthy of the #11 pick, and there will be a few avaialble at our rd #2 pick IMO. but I agree we need to get better at the TE position. However keep in mind that fairchild rarely used his TE's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 I hope it is that simple. But to trade down, you need a partner. And I definitely think having a TE would be huge for this offense. In my humble opinion, it is more important than receiver. With receiver, we are drafting (hopefulyy if Lee re-signs) a complement. With TE, we need an every down player and impact player. If we got a stud TE, then we won't have as big of a need for a tall receiver but we could draft the best receiver. See DraftTek's Custom Simulation for the partner du jour. I had them run this simulation because I don't think we stay put. http://www.drafttek.com/CustomRound12008.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 See DraftTek's Custom Simulation for the partner du jour. I had them run this simulation because I don't think we stay put. http://www.drafttek.com/CustomRound12008.html In order to trade back a team needs a partner who wants to move up and that's not as easy as a lot of people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 30, 2008 Author Share Posted March 30, 2008 You know it's stupid to say any one position taken early leads to SB success. I hope you made this thread to prove how stupid that is. I think a team should draft their weakest position high in the draft. That's what makes the most sense to me. I confess.....I was having a bit of a joke. Highlight the bottom of my original post & you'll see my disclaimer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art in PNS Posted March 30, 2008 Share Posted March 30, 2008 See DraftTek's Custom Simulation for the partner du jour. I had them run this simulation because I don't think we stay put. http://www.drafttek.com/CustomRound12008.html Although moving down doesn't bother me the trade seems whacked. Essentially we move down 18 spots in the first round and all we get is moving up 19 spots in the second and actually loose ground in the 5th ? I would think they would have to give us their second outright then I could see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted March 30, 2008 Share Posted March 30, 2008 I confess.....I was having a bit of a joke. Highlight the bottom of my original post & you'll see my disclaimer. I saw that even before I quoted you and I removed it when I did quote you. You should have let this go until AKC joined the fun. Then it would have gotten interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 There has been a lot of talk around here lately about what position the better teams draft high in the draft in order to get to the Super Bowl.There is a singular position which virtually guarantees superbowl success. That position is Tight End! In the past 10 drafts there have been 13 TEs drafted in the 1st round. Within 6 seasons of being drafted......6 of the teams that drafted them have gone on to the SB(5 of them winning it). All of the last 5 superbowls have been won by teams within 6 seasons of drafting a TE in the first round. 2 of the last 5 superbowls runner-ups have been by teams within 6 seasons of drafting a TE in the first round. What this means mathematically is that if you draft a TE in the first round, you have a 6 in 13 chance(46%) of making the SB within 6 years......and a 5 in 13 chance(38%) of winning the SB within 6 years. No other position drafted in the 1st round in recent times comes close to the success of drafting a TE. This draft we should ignore what the talent analysts say & use the #11 pick to draft the best TE available. Disclaimer: Though the actual numbers are factually correct.....the conclusion I have drawn is ridiculous and is only meant as an example to show that trying to obtain meaningful insight from what successful teams spend their early draft resources on is futile at best, disingenuous at worst. Honestly i dont think we will draft a TE all that high. We signed two big guys in FA in Teyo Johnson ( former reciever in college) and Courtney Anderson (he's just big) Somehow i don't see that big play TE in our plans early in the draft. Idk JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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