Enough with the trade down talk...

[Chicken Wing '73]

Anyone who suggests that the Bills trade down obviously did not watch the last draft. Does anyone think that Marv will "settle" for quantity over quality? I don't see it. He doesn't do that. If anything, he may take someone higher than the "draft experts" say they should have gone at the spot but he will not gamble who he believes is the best player for the team & trade down. I can however see him trade back into the first again.

 

Hearing people say things like #12 is too high for this guy or that guy makes you think. Looking back at all drafts in retrospect it is really funny that anyone predict who the better pro will be by how the college scouts rank them pre-draft. Jerry Rice went 18th in the 1st round (I think). Great pick right? I guarantee if he had been selected #12 overall that the team who got him would have probably been told by draft experts that they had reached for him. Bottom line is nobody knows. We will all root for whoever they pick and hope they pan out. One thing is for sure. It wont please everyone.

[Captain Hindsight]

Good post and your right in your line of thinking. But i could see us trading down a few slots if all the guys available at 12 are in fact available at 12. Some interesting trade posisblilities could happen this year and i wouldnt mind seeing Buffalo trade back a few pick s and picking up some extra ammo

[jri111]

Anyone who suggests that the Bills trade down obviously did not watch the last draft. Does anyone think that Marv will "settle" for quantity over quality? I don't see it. He doesn't do that. If anything, he may take someone higher than the "draft experts" say they should have gone at the spot but he will not gamble who he believes is the best player for the team & trade down. I can however see him trade back into the first again.

 

Hearing people say things like #12 is too high for this guy or that guy makes you think. Looking back at all drafts in retrospect it is really funny that anyone predict who the better pro will be by how the college scouts rank them pre-draft. Jerry Rice went 18th in the 1st round (I think). Great pick right? I guarantee if he had been selected #12 overall that the team who got him would have probably been told by draft experts that they had reached for him. Bottom line is nobody knows. We will all root for whoever they pick and hope they pan out. One thing is for sure. It wont please everyone.

 

 

I agree. The only way I see the Bills trading down is if there's NO ONE left who the Bills covert at 12. And that's not going to happen. Willis, Peterson, Okoye may be gone, maybe even Hall, but then the bills would just go with Poz or another CB they like. Maybe even Mechem(spelling?) or Olson. They'll stay put. The only other way I can see is if a big name player falls and some other team is offering the house to try to move up and get him.

[jarthur31]

Anyone who suggests that the Bills trade down obviously did not watch the last draft. Does anyone think that Marv will "settle" for quantity over quality? I don't see it. He doesn't do that. If anything, he may take someone higher than the "draft experts" say they should have gone at the spot but he will not gamble who he believes is the best player for the team & trade down. I can however see him trade back into the first again.

 

Hearing people say things like #12 is too high for this guy or that guy makes you think. Looking back at all drafts in retrospect it is really funny that anyone predict who the better pro will be by how the college scouts rank them pre-draft. Jerry Rice went 18th in the 1st round (I think). Great pick right? I guarantee if he had been selected #12 overall that the team who got him would have probably been told by draft experts that they had reached for him. Bottom line is nobody knows. We will all root for whoever they pick and hope they pan out. One thing is for sure. It wont please everyone.

 

Remember the board geniuses who also proclaimed that Marv got taken when he selected Whitner as our 1st round pick? They also passed judgment on McCargo as well but he hasn't played much to know what type of player we have.

[Bills Fan888]

Who knows what the Bills will do. Just because the Bills didn't trade down last year doesn't mean they won't this year. This is what happened during free agency. Everyone though we wouldn't sign anyonw because we didn't last year. We signed a bunch of players this year and I don't know what to expect this year for the draft.

[Dawgg]

He did.

 

Remember the board geniuses who also proclaimed that Marv got taken when he selected Whitner as our 1st round pick?

[Pyrite Gal]

Anyone who suggests that the Bills trade down obviously did not watch the last draft. Does anyone think that Marv will "settle" for quantity over quality? I don't see it. He doesn't do that. If anything, he may take someone higher than the "draft experts" say they should have gone at the spot but he will not gamble who he believes is the best player for the team & trade down. I can however see him trade back into the first again.

 

Hearing people say things like #12 is too high for this guy or that guy makes you think. Looking back at all drafts in retrospect it is really funny that anyone predict who the better pro will be by how the college scouts rank them pre-draft. Jerry Rice went 18th in the 1st round (I think). Great pick right? I guarantee if he had been selected #12 overall that the team who got him would have probably been told by draft experts that they had reached for him. Bottom line is nobody knows. We will all root for whoever they pick and hope they pan out. One thing is for sure. It wont please everyone.

 

I hope Marv is not slavishly opposed to trading down (and I have seen no comprehensive investigations of drafts he played a significant role in that demonstrates such an aversion and besides there is only one draft of his behavior when he is in charge and one data point does not make a trend).

 

Different drafts should mean different strategies as both the talent pool of players available and teams needs are quite different.

 

If Marv or anyone has a slavish opposition for trading down (or trading up for that matter) that is not subject to radical change when the talent pool is different and team needs either suggest getting quantity or quality a GM would be a fool (and likely not a GM for long if his reactions are dictated by a doctrine which does not apply to a particular case.

 

There are several factors looking at our needs and the draft talent pool THIS YEAR that would speak in favor of trading down,

 

1. This draft lacks a lot of high level talent overall and specifically in our areas of need.

 

Particularly given that the general talk on TSW seems to have settled on addressing our LB or RB needs with the #1 pick, it seems quite doubtful that the 1 RB who seems to merit a #12 pick will drop to us (could be if injury worries regarding Peterson scare folks away so this pick who could go in the top 5 drops to #12 and if he does it raises significant injury questions as to whether this player would be the immediate contributor if the incredibly unlikely happens and he drops to #12.

 

In addition, outside of Willis the general sense is that there is no LB who is valued above the 20s.

 

If either of these two players goes in the first 12 a trade down seems fairly merited.

 

2. We have multiple needs

 

Clearly no one pick is going to satisfy our needs for an RB (or 2 or 3 actually) or replace the two starters in last years first game at LB who are no longer Bills, Internal development and trades which allow us to sign an FA may also help heal these gaps, but there is a clear need for multiple first day picks to fill our needs, particularly if we end up pursuing an RB by committee strategy as we appear likely to do as there are no players in FA or the draft who are guaranteed first year starters at RB.

 

3. Though there are few players who seem to merit a top 10 pick there are multiple players who are judged good but not great at RB and at OLB so picking up an additional second or third or two will allow for competition where someone steps up even though none of these players are even near stone cold locks in the crapshoot known as the draft.

 

If there is some player that the Bills have looked in the eye and want this man in particular then the thing to do is to get him regardless of what the pundits say. However, all of the available players demonstrate either some flaws (Willis struggled in pass coverage at the Senior Bowl and the requirements of the MLB in our Cover 2 are probably beyond almost all rookies, he is the best of the LBs clearly but if we pick him he better start at SLB or be prepared for a long learning year) or questions exist for any one player in the crapshoot known as the draft and after having a bad taste left by depending on one man WM as a savior at RB we got disappointed by both his performance and his attitude (Lynch looks good but we seem serious about looking at Turner and even very good RB picks (Larry Johnson for example and Eric Moulds for another can simply take a couple of years before the Pro Bowls roll in),

[MrLocke]

I think you have to approach the draft with an open mind. If you don't you are bound to think back on what could have been. If there is someone the Bills covet that they don't think will be there at #12 and the price is right to move up and get him, do it If someone offers you the sun and the moon to move up to the #12 spot like Mike Ditka did to the Redskins do it. The one thing the Bills really have going for them this year atleast I think is a high number of picks on day 1 and a relatively small list of needs rb and slb. I really think if the Bills can fill those two spots and stay healthy they can do a ton of damage.

[BuckeyeBill]

I have two things to add.

 

1. Don't think that Marv won't trade down, remember last year, Marv was entertaining calls from Denver, etc. regarding possibly moving down so they could move up and take Leinart or Cutler at #8. The Bills said they were entertaining offers but nobody gave them enough. Meaning... if somebody DOES give them what they feel is enough, they WILL trade down, just like they were contiplating last year.

 

2. As far as grading a draft. Last year many people were hoping we took Bunkley or Winston Justice in the first round. Philadelphia somehow ended with both... both were terrible, and they were graded a D+ in one magazine I read (the Bills got an A- in that same magazine). You really can't grade a draft though... nobody thought the Bills reached taking Mike Williams and we all know that it was a collossal bust.

[Bill from NYC]

You really can't grade a draft though... nobody thought the Bills reached taking Mike Williams and we all know that it was a collossal bust.

 

The Bills did reach for Mike Williams. I don't think that a RT was ever selected that high, and they passed on McKinnie to do so. A case could still be made that the Bills reached for Whitner.

The thing is, sometimes "reaching" pays off. In that same draft (2002), the Bengals took Levi Jones at #10, and he was generally regarded as a late 1st round pick. He turned out to be better than either Williams or McKinnie.

[richNjoisy]

We all have to be careful assuming we undertsand the Levy-led draft strategy based on only one year. Yes, last year's #1 pick was considered a reach by the "experts". But proof in the pudding has shown that the selection of Whitner was a good one (at least so far).

Let's see how this draft plays out - we can continue to speculate but the Bills are only showing us that they are INTERESTED in filling the RB role and that they like fast, to-the-line-of-scrimmage LB's. One can assume they are interested in CB's too but they may simply play with the cards they already have (youboty, simpson, whitner and McGee)

 

BTW - I have finally lost all respect for mort and kiper etc. Did they watch McGahee play? Without the jets games, he positively reaked.

 

-RnJ

[tennesseeboy]

I think the decision to trade down will be made during the draft when we see what is going to fall to us. Chances are, at 12, there will be a big surprise and we may be very happy going with the choice. Peterson, Willis or Okoye come to mind and I wouldn't be surprised if one of them is there. If not...trading down might make sense. Lots of good linebackers and the second rank of running backs (Lynch, Pittman, Irons) should be available lower in the first round. I don't see an ideal "12" on the board at the moment (one who will NOT be a top ten pick but fits nicely as a 12). but its still early. For draft INTEREST purposes, 12 is almost an ideal pick. One through five is kind of a no brainer...five through ten is the cream of the crop. Ten to fifteen calls for real imagination. And we have two of the best doing the picking, so get the popcorn, fasten your seatbelts and enjoy the show.

[marauderswr80]

Only way Buffalo trades down is cause Patrick Willis is off the boards.

 

To me its makes alot of sense to trade down if Willis is gone to get the 2nd best LB in the draft and obtain yet another draft pick, not to mention first day draft pick.

 

With a team with several holes to fill, obtaining another first day pick to go with 5 already, is a HUGE bonus!

 

I understand where you are coming from, but you have to understand we have holes and need some depth for this team, and if we can trade that 12th pick away to get it and still get a nice LB in the first I see no reason to not pull the trigger.

 

Although if Willis is on the boards, its a no brainer, you take him.

[2003Contenders]

I can see Marv trading down in one of two instances:

 

1. The guy they really want and expected to be there (Willis?) is gone.

 

2. They have several players ranked about the same -- and feel that at least one of them will still be there in the event that they do trade down.

 

However, you are right that Marv showed last year with Whitner, that if he has any worries at all about the guy he really likes NOT being available if he trades down, he won't do it. Recall that the Bills waited right up until the final second to make the call on Whitner, as they wanted to exhaust all trade possibilities. The less-than-credible Mort claimed that there was "confusion" in the Bills' war room -- but I never got that impression. I think there were a variety of opinions about what to do: trade down, take one of the DTs, etc. In the end, I think Marv decided to go with a consensus pick in Whitner, a player that EVERYONE in the war room was on board with -- even if the "value" was not so great. Of course, the fact that this was Marv's first draft as GM may have played a role in his trying to select just such a consensus pick. That is, attempting to foster a "we are family" approach from the outset. Note how all players who have dissented from the team's concept (Adams, Milloy, Moulds, Willis, and TKO) are no longer with the team.

 

One other thing to remember is that the constant theme since Marv took over has been YOUTH. In addition to ridding the roster of older players, they have also been attracted to underclassmen in the draft. If I recall correctly, Whitner was only 20 at the time of the draft. Also, the Bills tended to be drawn to the "fast risers" in last year's draft. Whitner's stock was really starting to climb right up until draft day, as was McCargo's. McCargo, in fact, had been tabbed as a 3rd round prospect until about a week or so before the draft. I still remember Lenny P writing an article about McCargo probably elevating himself into the first round. Of course, the same Lenny P went on to criticize us for taking him late in the first round!

 

Finally, Marv has shown a willingness to trade -- and he has done so with a variety of teams. Chicago, St. Louis, Baltimore, and Philly all come to mind. And, as we know, he's been in talks with the Chargers, although I am really starting to believe that those talks are not going to go anywhere.

 

All of this is just to say that I have no idea what the team is planning to do come draft day!