LB Patrick Willis--

[Astrobot]

_________ GREAT BLUE NORTH _________

11- Dwayne Jarrett-WR-Southern California

12- Amobi Okoye-DT-Louisville

13 - Jarvis Moss-DE-Florida

14 - Ted Ginn-WR-Ohio State

15 - Leon Hall-CB-Michigan

16 - Laron Landry-DB-LSU

17 - Sidney Rice-WR-South Carolina

18 - Patrick Willis-LB-Mississippi

----> I don't think the 49'ers will be taking Jarrett at 11. They aren't as set at DT. If Okoye, Hall and Willis are there at #12, I'm pretty sure they'd take Willis or Hall. They were going to take Hawk last year--they won't be denied this year with a sure fire inside backer. If this is the scenario, Clements would get franchised in order to take the #1 LB in this draft.

 

 

_________ CONDRAFT _________

PICK #11 The 49ers Pick: Alan Branch (DT, Michigan)

PICK #12 The Bills Pick: Quinn Pitcock (DT, Ohio State)

PICK #13 The Rams Pick: Patrick Willis (LB, Mississippi)

PICK #14 The Panthers Pick: Michael Griffin (S, Texas)

PICK #15 The Steelers Pick: Quentin Moses (DE, Georgia)

PICK #16 The Packers Pick: Marshawn Lynch (HB, California)

PICK #17 The Jaguars Pick: Charles Johnson (DE, Georgia)

PICK #18 The Bengals Pick: Amobi Okoye (DT, Louisville)

----> Here, the 49'ers take Branch, which would be a no-brainer. We take Pitcock with Willis still on the board. Would we really take the 3rd or 4th ranked DT with the #1 LB right there, given that we took a first round DT last year, and have questions at MLB?

 

 

_________ WAR ROOM DRAFT ___________

11 San Francisco 49ers - OT - Levi Brown

12 Buffalo Bills - DE - Gaines Adams

13 St. Louis Rams - FS - LaRon Landry

14 Carolina Panthers - DT - Amobi Akoye

15 Pittsburgh Steelers - DE/OLB - Lamarr Woodley

16 Green Bay Packers - WR - *Ted Ginn

17 Jacksonville Jaguars - *Robert Meachem

18 Cincinnati Bengals - DT - Quinn Pitcock

19 Tennessee Titans - DE - Quentin Moses

20 New York Giants - ILB - Patrick Willis

---> Here, the OT that many drafts have us taking, Levi Brown, is picked by the 49'ers right before we pick. If this happens, do we trade down a bit and still get Willis?

[/dev/null]

_________ GREAT BLUE NORTH _________

12- Amobi Okoye-DT-Louisville

_________ CONDRAFT _________

PICK #12 The Bills Pick: Quinn Pitcock (DT, Ohio State)

 

They drafted 2 DT last year and signed a free agent DT. They will not take a DT in the 1st

 

_________ WAR ROOM DRAFT ___________

12 Buffalo Bills - DE - Gaines Adams

 

If Kelsay is re-signed they will not take a DE in the 1st either

 

Look for CB, LB, OL, or maybe WR

[Buffaloed in Pa]

They drafted 2 DT last year and signed a free agent DT. They will not take a DT in the 1st

If Kelsay is re-signed they will not take a DE in the 1st either

 

Look for CB, LB, OL, or maybe WR

Oh ,don`t forget R.B.

[Coach Tuesday]

Keep in mind this is considered a WEAK draft for LBs but a rather strong draft for DTs. In other words, the Bills would have a more difficult time grabbing a stud LB later on in the draft, but may get a quality DT later on.

 

Astro, just curious, how do you think Willis grades out compared to Vilma?

[Astrobot]

Keep in mind this is considered a WEAK draft for LBs but a rather strong draft for DTs. In other words, the Bills would have a more difficult time grabbing a stud LB later on in the draft, but may get a quality DT later on.

 

Astro, just curious, how do you think Willis grades out compared to Vilma?

 

 

Top 50 Keepers for 2007

McGahee

 

Vilma ain't there.

[/dev/null]

Top 50 Keepers for 2007

McGahee

 

Vilma ain't there.

Those are FFL keepers. Of course Vilma wouldn't be on that list

[Chilly]

Those are FFL keepers. Of course Vilma wouldn't be on that list

 

I think you missed the joke

[Pyrite Gal]

Astro-

 

Thanks for all your work on the draft options!

 

I commented in entirety on an earlier thread you started with your review of a whole bunch of draft site.

 

I include below my comments on Willis who I hope we do not take to fill in for F-B at MLB as even though I also think Willis a very talented player who deserved the Butkus honor. I think our D would end up taking a step back in production if we ask a rookie to play the diverse and pivotal MLB role in the Cover 2 as we run it.

 

F-B led the NFL in INTs by an LB and actually got more INTs than both NC and McGee in 06 because in the Tampa 2 version of the Cover 2 we run, F-B benefited a lot from having a bout a decade of seeing NFL plays run and he could see when they were trying to fool him and do good reads.

 

If one wants to imagine what life will be like with Willis at MLB then think of JP learning how to become an NFL vet. The QB position is in many ways more complicated than the MLB position (and I think that the Bills will need to hand off the playcalling duties Fletch had to another position as there is almost no way a rookie will know the Fewell/Jauron D well enough to inherit the F-B playcalling duties).

 

Even with a simpler task than the physically gifted JP we are likely to have to suffer through the growing pains of the physically gifted Willis as this rookie learns how to become a vet.

 

Even worse for us fans, i think their frustration from seeing Fletch hit player downfield instead of at the LOS or in the backfield will merely switch to seeing Willis first hit players downfield instead of at the LOS or in the backfield.

 

F-B led LBs in the NFL in INTs because the way our D is run on 3rd downs the MLB's responsibilities are more like that of a safety than as a run plugger. Willis is going to be positioned off the line just as Fletch was,

 

In addition. to his INT #s providing a strong indication (stats are good indicators though rarely conclusive) look at the fact that Fletch ran about a 2:1 ratio of unassisted to assisted tackles. If the problem was he was a weak hitter or his weight was simply too light in the pants, then I think you would actually see his assisted tackle # being higher as he held onto rushers for dear life but could not bring them down on his own and the delays caused by this speed bump would allow the safeties to come up or the DL to catch up and split the tackle credit with him.

 

The fact that Fletch tended to get credited for unassisted tackles and also that his team leading by far tackle #s tend to indicate that folks would simply run right through him and need to be brought down by others (who thus would have higher tackle numbers( indicates to me that complaints about him tackling folks downfield probably say more about our turnstile DTs who let folks through to Fletch and toward how Fewell used him in our D.

 

Willis IMHO would be a waste of a 1st round choice we could use on a higher need who might help with that problem.

 

(5) Patrick Willis - ILB (NFLAnswers, walterfootball, eastcoastsportsnews, draftclass, draftace)

 

This pick is a favorite of folks who feel that it is certain we will let Fletch walk (probably will though this is not certain as of yet) and hope (think this an LB who got the Butkus award as best college LB would likely hold the job for years, This sounds to me like very solid thinking for the 2008 or at latest 2009 season, but it strikes me as really doubtful the Bills will go this way and have a rookie fill in for Fletch as like it or not, with the MLB being called upon to read and diagnose 3rd down plays as runs or passes and if it is a throw cover folks like a safety in the deep zone, that a rookie who does not have the years a vet would have of seeing NFL plays call and develop will get undressed a lot as he learns to become a vet.

 

The Bills reliance on the MLB in coverage is seen in F-B not only leading the NFL in INTs by an LB, but actually leading the team in INTs as he got more than CNs like NC and McGee who are asked to do press coverage in the short zone in our Cover 2 and then release receivers going downfield to the safties and MLB.

 

I think it is far more likely that to replace Fletch we move Crowell back to the MLB spot where he started and he takes over the playcalling duties from Fletch which no rookie be it Willis or whomever would be able to do for a while until they master NFL Ds. We then would be looking to acquire an OLN and an FA like Briggs makes more sense or if we draft a rookie LB it more likely woul be OLBs Poluszny or Timmons unless Willis is good enough to start at OLB for us.

 

Willis is a talented player who seems like a bad fit for us if Marv or Ralph have an interest in winning now as our D would likely take a step back for a year while Willis playing a pivotal role learns how to become a vet.

[obie_wan]

Astro-

 

Thanks for all your work on the draft options!

 

I commented in entirety on an earlier thread you started with your review of a whole bunch of draft site.

 

I include below my comments on Willis who I hope we do not take to fill in for F-B at MLB as even though I also think Willis a very talented player who deserved the Butkus honor. I think our D would end up taking a step back in production if we ask a rookie to play the diverse and pivotal MLB role in the Cover 2 as we run it.

 

F-B led the NFL in INTs by an LB and actually got more INTs than both NC and McGee in 06 because in the Tampa 2 version of the Cover 2 we run, F-B benefited a lot from having a bout a decade of seeing NFL plays run and he could see when they were trying to fool him and do good reads.

 

If one wants to imagine what life will be like with Willis at MLB then think of JP learning how to become an NFL vet. The QB position is in many ways more complicated than the MLB position (and I think that the Bills will need to hand off the playcalling duties Fletch had to another position as there is almost no way a rookie will know the Fewell/Jauron D well enough to inherit the F-B playcalling duties).

 

Even with a simpler task than the physically gifted JP we are likely to have to suffer through the growing pains of the physically gifted Willis as this rookie learns how to become a vet.

 

Even worse for us fans, i think their frustration from seeing Fletch hit player downfield instead of at the LOS or in the backfield will merely switch to seeing Willis first hit players downfield instead of at the LOS or in the backfield.

 

F-B led LBs in the NFL in INTs because the way our D is run on 3rd downs the MLB's responsibilities are more like that of a safety than as a run plugger. Willis is going to be positioned off the line just as Fletch was,

 

In addition. to his INT #s providing a strong indication (stats are good indicators though rarely conclusive) look at the fact that Fletch ran about a 2:1 ratio of unassisted to assisted tackles. If the problem was he was a weak hitter or his weight was simply too light in the pants, then I think you would actually see his assisted tackle # being higher as he held onto rushers for dear life but could not bring them down on his own and the delays caused by this speed bump would allow the safeties to come up or the DL to catch up and split the tackle credit with him.

 

The fact that Fletch tended to get credited for unassisted tackles and also that his team leading by far tackle #s tend to indicate that folks would simply run right through him and need to be brought down by others (who thus would have higher tackle numbers( indicates to me that complaints about him tackling folks downfield probably say more about our turnstile DTs who let folks through to Fletch and toward how Fewell used him in our D.

 

Willis IMHO would be a waste of a 1st round choice we could use on a higher need who might help with that problem.

 

(5) Patrick Willis - ILB (NFLAnswers, walterfootball, eastcoastsportsnews, draftclass, draftace)

 

This pick is a favorite of folks who feel that it is certain we will let Fletch walk (probably will though this is not certain as of yet) and hope (think this an LB who got the Butkus award as best college LB would likely hold the job for years, This sounds to me like very solid thinking for the 2008 or at latest 2009 season, but it strikes me as really doubtful the Bills will go this way and have a rookie fill in for Fletch as like it or not, with the MLB being called upon to read and diagnose 3rd down plays as runs or passes and if it is a throw cover folks like a safety in the deep zone, that a rookie who does not have the years a vet would have of seeing NFL plays call and develop will get undressed a lot as he learns to become a vet.

 

The Bills reliance on the MLB in coverage is seen in F-B not only leading the NFL in INTs by an LB, but actually leading the team in INTs as he got more than CNs like NC and McGee who are asked to do press coverage in the short zone in our Cover 2 and then release receivers going downfield to the safties and MLB.

 

I think it is far more likely that to replace Fletch we move Crowell back to the MLB spot where he started and he takes over the playcalling duties from Fletch which no rookie be it Willis or whomever would be able to do for a while until they master NFL Ds. We then would be looking to acquire an OLN and an FA like Briggs makes more sense or if we draft a rookie LB it more likely woul be OLBs Poluszny or Timmons unless Willis is good enough to start at OLB for us.

 

Willis is a talented player who seems like a bad fit for us if Marv or Ralph have an interest in winning now as our D would likely take a step back for a year while Willis playing a pivotal role learns how to become a vet.

 

 

yes - I can see your logic that the Bills will never draft a rookie MLB because he would always be a rookie his first year and could never contribute.

[YOOOOOO]

_________ CONDRAFT _________

PICK #11 The 49ers Pick: Alan Branch (DT, Michigan)

PICK #12 The Bills Pick: Quinn Pitcock (DT, Ohio State)

PICK #13 The Rams Pick: Patrick Willis (LB, Mississippi)

PICK #14 The Panthers Pick: Michael Griffin (S, Texas)

PICK #15 The Steelers Pick: Quentin Moses (DE, Georgia)

PICK #16 The Packers Pick: Marshawn Lynch (HB, California)

PICK #17 The Jaguars Pick: Charles Johnson (DE, Georgia)

PICK #18 The Bengals Pick: Amobi Okoye (DT, Louisville)

----> Here, the 49'ers take Branch, which would be a no-brainer. We take Pitcock with Willis still on the board. Would we really take the 3rd or 4th ranked DT with the #1 LB right there, given that we took a first round DT last year, and have questions at MLB?

 

 

If we were to draft Pitcock i would shoot myself.....especially with Marshawn still on the board

[Typical TBD Guy]

They drafted 2 DT last year and signed a free agent DT. They will not take a DT in the 1st

 

Your reasoning seems flawed to me.

 

For one thing, the Patriots drafted consecutive 1st round DT's before, and they seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.

 

But also, the DT situation is bordering on catastrophic for the Bills right now - probably our #1 offseason concern. Virtual bottom of the league against the run this year, 2 rookie DT's who did very little to positively affect that ranking, and a lousy group of free agent DT's in March all adds up to another potential 1st round DT...

 

My best guess, as of January 21, would be Louisville DT Amobi Okoye at #12 and FSU MLB Buster Davis at #44. I'm confident that both have the ability and character to be productive rookie starters in this league.

 

Though for what it's worth, I would certainly not complain if we draft Willis at #12.

[Pyrite Gal]

yes - I can see your logic that the Bills will never draft a rookie MLB because he would always be a rookie his first year and could never contribute.

 

No, I never said do not ever draft a MLB, all I said is that there is a difference between drafting an MLB and developing him to be the pivotal player in a Tampa 2 over time OR drafting him and throwing him to the dogs essentially and demanding that he start immediately.

 

It may be that I simply did not understand what you were saying, but wouldn't you say there is a difference between drafting an MLB (even on the first day of the draft) and either starting him at an OLB position (if he is capable of making the position switch which is quite possible since the OLB positions cover less field than the MLB and in our Cover 2 involves far less complexity since you are not expected to both tackle like a DL yet cover like a safety) or playing him promarily om ST and teaching him the how to do vet reads in practice.

 

These are the different approaches that I think drive this team to get an FA vet to replace F-B rather than throw a talented rookie to the dogs by demanding he play the starting MLB role in our Cover 2,

 

Certainly Willis can start for us if drafted, but if I am an OC or an opposing QB I am salivating over the prospect of facing a rookie MLB and likely the Bills D takes a few steps back in productivity with a rookie (even a talented one) starting at MLB in our Cover 2.

[ndirish1978]

I want Ginn

[Gordio]

Your reasoning seems flawed to me.

 

For one thing, the Patriots drafted consecutive 1st round DT's before, and they seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.

 

But also, the DT situation is bordering on catastrophic for the Bills right now - probably our #1 offseason concern. Virtual bottom of the league against the run this year, 2 rookie DT's who did very little to positively affect that ranking, and a lousy group of free agent DT's in March all adds up to another potential 1st round DT...

 

My best guess, as of January 21, would be Louisville DT Amobi Okoye at #12 and FSU MLB Buster Davis at #44. I'm confident that both have the ability and character to be productive rookie starters in this league.

 

Though for what it's worth, I would certainly not complain if we draft Willis at #12.

 

 

If Buster Davis is avalable at #44 that would be awesome. Not sure if he is going to last that long though.

[marauderswr80]

I think if we lose Nate Clements, CB is going to be the first pick.....i dont see how it cant be? Its tough losing your teams best corner. I dont see anyone on the roster that can take over for Nate and play at the level he did. If we keep Nate, I think LB will be the first pick in the draft.

 

So in all reality this Nate Clements ordeal will dictate this draft.