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Rising Salary Caps, Weak Free Agents


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With the big cap increase in 06 and the projected increase in 07, I think that teams will have an easier time (at least for now) protecting their unrestricted free agents. It has started already.

Detroit "franchised" Backus, and then signed him to an expensive long term deal. The Bengals were able to re-sign both Willie Anderson AND Levi Jones before they hit the market. I don't think that we will be seeing too many stars in free agency next season. Steinbach is a possibility, and I don't know what the future will hold for Freeney. Nate will probably receive untold millions.

I think that the effects will be as follows:

 

1) We might see an increase in the number of trades.

 

2) The draft will be the only viable method to build a strong team, so rebuilding could very well take longer than we are used to seeing.

 

3) Draft picks will increase in value (and I hope Marv doesn't cough up any more before the draft).

 

Opinions?

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I pretty much agree with you, but also add that fewer veterans will be cut for cap purposes.

 

also, when a guy isn't locked up by his team he will cost a lot as a free agent.

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Whats with your Avatar and name???? Are you lost??

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With the big cap increase in 06 and the projected increase in 07, I think that teams will have an easier time (at least for now) protecting their unrestricted free agents. It has started already.

Detroit "franchised" Backus, and then signed him to an expensive long term deal. The Bengals were able to re-sign both Willie Anderson AND Levi Jones before they hit the market. I don't think that we will be seeing too many stars in free agency next season. Steinbach is a possibility, and I don't know what the future will hold for Freeney. Nate will probably receive untold millions.

I think that the effects will be as follows:

 

1) We might see an increase in the number of trades.

 

2) The draft will be the only viable method to build a strong team, so rebuilding could very well take longer than we are used to seeing.

 

3) Draft picks will increase in value (and I hope Marv doesn't cough up any more  before the draft).

 

Opinions?

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I think we've seen that the draft pretty much is THE viable method to building a strong team, with a complement of value free agents that fit the system. The Washington Redskins are living proof that making a lot of impact free agent buys doesn't necessarily translate to success, though one might argue that they don't drop that big FA money on the lines, but rather on more skill positions (the bane of BfNYC existence :D)

 

Contrast with New England. They do pick up a free agent from time to time, but the bigger moves they've made a la Colvin actually haven't been the ones that helped the most. Corey Dillon was a trade, not a free agent move. They don't let huge free agent demands sway the way they do business. Now, one might argue that if the AFCE competition was a little stronger, NE might not find the same success, and one might be right.

 

Look at the Bengals' line success. Draftees, most of them. We do need to start picking up 2nd and 3rd round interior linemen with regularity. Tackles, I'm not sure what the right way to go is since they just seem to be so hard to find. Sure, not all will work out, but if we are picking from the higher end of the talent pool, chances are we'll hit the jackpot more often. Right now we're betting real low and occasionally hitting with a guy like Peters. The rate of return is just not real high on this kind of method.

 

Long story short, I think you're right. Drafting is and will remain most important.

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I think we've seen that the draft pretty much is THE viable method to building a strong team, with a complement of value free agents that fit the system.  The Washington Redskins are living proof that making a lot of impact free agent buys doesn't necessarily translate to success, though one might argue that they don't drop that big FA money on the lines, but rather on more skill positions (the bane of BfNYC existence :D)

 

Contrast with New England.  They do pick up a free agent from time to time, but the bigger moves they've made a la Colvin actually haven't been the ones that helped the most.  Corey Dillon was a trade, not a free agent move.  They don't let huge free agent demands sway the way they do business.  Now, one might argue that if the AFCE competition was a little stronger, NE might not find the same success, and one might be right.

 

Look at the Bengals' line success.  Draftees, most of them.  We do need to start picking up 2nd and 3rd round interior linemen with regularity.  Tackles, I'm not sure what the right way to go is since they just seem to be so hard to find.  Sure, not all will work out, but if we are picking from the higher end of the talent pool, chances are we'll hit the jackpot more often.  Right now we're betting real low and occasionally hitting with a guy like Peters.  The rate of return is just not real high on this kind of method.

 

Long story short, I think you're right.  Drafting is and will remain most important.

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the skins have actually spent big on the lines -- randy thomas, cornelius griffin, corey raymer, john jansen, etc. and they drafted samuels as a top 5 pick.

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the skins have actually spent big on the lines -- randy thomas, cornelius griffin, corey raymer, john jansen, etc. and they drafted samuels as a top 5 pick.

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I don't think anyone would argue that those guys are upper echelon guys. And Samuels has been in and out of the doghouse, dangled as trade bait, and was drafted quite a bit ago.

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I don't think anyone would argue that those guys are upper echelon guys.  And Samuels has been in and out of the doghouse, dangled as trade bait, and was drafted quite a bit ago.

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randy thomas was widely regarded as a top 5 guard when he hit free agency. the skins o-line actually played very well last season, particularly towards the end of the year. and griffin was a force last year.

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People may not agree with me, but I think our defensive tackle position has been taken care of in last years draft. Although, the results may not be what people wanted this year, people must realize that the bills on d are very green. Mcgargo & Williams I expect to get better next year(it usually takes Dts at least one year to fully reach potential for whatever reason) & although he has not had a great impact this year I still like Triplett as a rotation guy.

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Gordio, I agree with you to a certain extent. I'd say that the building of the D-line is still incomplete, oh say about 75% of the way there. The Bills need run stopping DT's in the rotation and pure speed on the outside. I, do, however, believe that Kyle Williams and John McCargo could very well be two foundational types in that Tampa-2 defense. I'm really anxious to see Anthony Hargrove coming off the bye week. He is one of several players I've got particular interest in watching real closely. The other two who I have a keen interest in are the OT's, Terrence Pennington and Jason Peters. :devil:

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Didnt the other guys on the board tell you? Were going to get rid of Nate Clements and use that money on the plethora of great FA's available everywhere for us to just pick up and let them play.

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:devil: The ironic part is that Nate does not count toward the 07 cap because he is not under contract. I am guessing that we will pick up at least 10 million (perhaps considerably more) just from getting rid of Williams and Moulds. I am not sure what we get from Adams and Milloy.

 

I am of the opinion that there is enough money to extend Nate, and sign Steinbach and all our draft picks if Ralph has the inclination to pay them, and the players want to be here. There would probably be enough left over to franchise Fletcher.

If not, I am at a loss to how Marv will bring in players, and where they will come from, unless he continues to pay the big bucks to trash bin rejects.

 

Again, I am not hearing of many great players hitting the market in 07.

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It also heavily depends on how big players want their salaries to increase, as well as current built-in contract increases.

 

The players don't live in a bubble, they know when the cap goes way up, and as a result their demands go way up.

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:devil:  The ironic part is that Nate does not count toward the 07 cap because he is not under contract.  I am guessing that we will pick up at least 10 million (perhaps considerably more) just from getting rid of Williams and Moulds. I am not sure what we get from Adams and Milloy.

 

I am of the opinion that there is enough money to extend Nate, and sign Steinbach and all our draft picks if Ralph has the inclination to pay them, and the players want to be here. There would probably be enough left over to franchise Fletcher.

If not, I am at a loss to how Marv will bring in players, and where they will come from, unless he continues to pay the big bucks to trash bin rejects.

Again, I am not hearing of many great players hitting the market in 07.

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WOW! Someone who gets it. We could do everything you mentioned and still have somewhere between 8-12 million left in cap space.

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WOW! Someone who gets it. We could do everything you mentioned and still have somewhere between 8-12 million left in cap space.

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I also think that depending on who is out there and where we finish in terms of the W/L record, trading down would be an attractive option.

If teams cannot bring in stars via free agency (because there are so few), early 1st round picks might increase in value as well.

 

Don't mind me.....just thinking out loud. :devil:

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I also think that depending on who is out there and where we finish in terms of the W/L record, trading down would be an attractive option.

If teams cannot bring in stars via free agency (because there are so few), early 1st round picks might increase in value as well.

 

Don't mind me.....just thinking out loud.  :devil:

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See I dont understand why other people dont understand this concept. They think their are going to be a ton of FA's out their to get. They list 9 good lineman that we could get, not realizing that their is a 98% chance they will re-sign with their team and 2 out of those 9 lineman have only played about 5 games in the past 2 seasons.

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The players don't live in a bubble, they know when the cap goes way up, and as a result their demands go way up.

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This is quite true, but teams now have more money to woo players into extensions. They can offer them millions more up front and the option of security, and many players seem to be going this route, at least for now.

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This is quite true, but teams now have more money to woo players into extensions. They can offer them millions more up front and the option of security, and many players seem to be going this route, at least for now.

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Indeed, but as more players come up for renegotiations it'll even out.

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Indeed, but as more players come up for renegotiations it'll even out.

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As dumb as it may sound their are players who probably dont want to play for Buffalo. Believe it or not their are players who would turn down a slightly higher contract to play for a team that has a better chance of getting them a SB ring.

 

AKA T.O. was offered a boatload from the Ravens but didnt want to go. He went to Philly instead because they were ranked high to go to the SB.

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As dumb as it may sound their are players who probably dont want to play for Buffalo. Believe it or not their are players who would turn down a slightly higher contract to play for a team that has a better chance of getting them a SB ring.

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That doesn't sound dumb - it happens all the time.

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