Child Raping Scandle Hits Home

[true_blue_bill]

The party of 'Moral Values' caught with their hand down kids pants. Horrible! Hope they toss some of these sickos in jail.

 

 

http://buffalonews.com/editorial/20061008/1033841.asp

 

Democrat Jack Davis has opened a significant lead over Republican incumbent Thomas M. Reynolds in a congressional contest fueled by Reynolds' association with the Mark Foley sex scandal.

Davis leads Reynolds 48 percent to 33 percent in a new Zogby International poll conducted for The Buffalo News, prompting pollster John Zogby to conclude that Davis poses a genuine threat to the longtime powerhouse from Clarence.

 

"There is no other way to look at these numbers except to say Tom Reynolds is in trouble," the Utica-based Zogby said.

 

The poll surveyed 402 likely voters in the 26th Congressional District on Wednesday and Thursday (with a margin for error of plus or minus 5 percentage points). It showed that 325 respondents were following the Foley story, with 57 percent disapproving the way Reynolds handled the situation after he found out last spring Foley had sent an e-mail that made a former page uncomfortable. And then 10 days ago, it was revealed that Foley had sent sexually explicit instant messages to other former pages.

 

Only 25 percent of the poll respondents said they approved of how Reynolds handled the situation.

 

In addition, the national attention focused on Reynolds over the past week has led many voters to consider him in a different light. Only 2 percent of those surveyed said they view the congressman more favorably since news of the scandal broke, while 50 percent said they think less favorably of him. Those whose opinion remains unchanged stand at 47 percent.

 

But the numbers show growing dissatisfaction with the four-term incumbent, aside from the Foley incident. Fifty-one percent of the respondents rate Reynolds' job performance as fair or poor, while 43 percent call it good or excellent.

 

Only 32 percent say he should be re-elected, while 58 percent believe it's time for someone new.

 

"That's extremely low," Zogby said. "And that's what we see in Republican districts all over the country - a very low re-elect number."

[SilverNRed]

The party of 'Moral Values' caught with their hand down kids pants. Horrible! Hope they toss some of these sickos in jail.

798641[/snapback]

Can a political party have its "hand down kids' pants"? When did the "rape" actually take place? And are the children really "children" when the age of consent in DC is 16?

 

Oh, nevermind, I'm sure you're right. The Republicans are the party of baby-raping, child-molestors.

[true_blue_bill]

Can a political party have its "hand down kids' pants"?  When did the "rape" actually take place?  And are the children really "children" when the age of consent in DC is 16?

 

Oh, nevermind, I'm sure you're right.  The Republicans are the party of baby-raping, child-molestors.  

798698[/snapback]

Sure, defend that baby rapers!

[CoachChuckDickerson]

And are the children really "children" when the age of consent in DC is 16?

And there is the rub. Legal in DC? Yes. Moral anyplace in the United States? No.

[GiantsOfAlbany]

Do Democrats actually think that this is going to last until the election in four (4) weeks? And that this is an issue that voters vote on?

 

 

Foley did resign, didn't he?

[VABills]

Do Democrats actually think that this is going to last until the election in four (4) weeks?  And that this is an issue that voters vote on?

Foley did resign, didn't he?

799060[/snapback]

Just wait until the next hurricane, shark attack, Paris Hilton sex video and this will be out of everybodies mind quicker than you can say Paris is a virgin again.

[John Adams]

How the right wing can defend a child rapist is beyond me.

[gmac17]

the dude is a complete pervert and I'm all for sending him up the river. I think this will stay in the news until election day, and will hurt the repubs big time come election day, just like it would have hurt the dems had it happened to them. Lets not kid ourselves, if the shoe was on the other foot the right would be running to the bank with this one and we'd never hear the end of it.

 

To crooks like bob menendez in NJ, this may be the best news he's heard all year.

 

 

How the right wing can defend a child rapist is beyond me.

 

i think the better question is how can "anyone" can do it, not the right wing. You should also ask Chuck Shumer why he voted against censuring the congressman who had sex with a 17 year old page in 1983...

[Chilly]

Can a political party have its "hand down kids' pants"?  When did the "rape" actually take place?  And are the children really "children" when the age of consent in DC is 16?

 

Oh, nevermind, I'm sure you're right.  The Republicans are the party of baby-raping, child-molestors.  

798698[/snapback]

 

Yeah, he overstated it, I wont' deny that.

 

But you also understated it - its not as if the age of consent being 16 makes it okay.

 

Do Democrats actually think that this is going to last until the election in four (4) weeks?  And that this is an issue that voters vote on?

Foley did resign, didn't he?

799060[/snapback]

 

Do you really think it won't be?

 

The Republicans as much as any one have been focusing elections on values in order to drive out their religious base. This issue really, really fires up the Democrats base and to a much lesser extend suppresses some of the Republican base a bit. If you look at why people have voted Republican in the last elections, a large chunk of the vote totals was because people believed they'd "do the right thing" and that they were the party of morality compared to the Dems.

 

Given that an investigation will "take weeks, not months" according to Congress, its going to be in the news right about the time of the election. They may try to delay the report until just after if it talks bad of the Republican leadership, but it'll still be there. Also, the media will try to make this last as long as they can - its the type of stuff that sells newspapers.

 

Your question also delves into why a person votes the way they do. The model of human voting behavior with the most proof behind it is John Zaller's Memory-based theory. One of the parts of this is that people access the most recent events a lot more readily then events that happened a long time ago, and thus give much more weight to current events. Foley will be a LOT more accessible come November then many other memories.

 

Some other reasons why it will stay in the news:

 

- All of the house representatives are up for election, just like every other 2-year election cycle. Given that Hastert, Foley, and Reynolds have all come under fire, it'll stay in the news. Today during the Bills game, for example, Reynolds was running an ad about the situation.

 

- Foley might have resigned, but his name is still on the ballot in Tampa.

 

Is it going to make a difference?

 

We certaintly see in some districts where it has already. Reynolds is now down by 8% after being up in his district before the scandal. Hastert's district hasn't had any poll data that I can access yet this election cycle unfortunately, so I dunno about that. Foley went from a sure win to now being a sure Democrat seat.

 

We're also seeing for the first time projections for the election start to take a Democratic turn. The Dems, who I previously thought wouldn't have either house in play, suddenly do. They've got at least a 50-50 shot at winning control of the Senate, looks like they're going to win a majority of governorships for the first time in a while. The House is also in play, which it didn't look like it was going to be before.

[VABills]

How the right wing can defend a child rapist is beyond me.

799119[/snapback]

Care to tell me which child rapist the right wing is defending? I missed that one.

[true_blue_bill]

Yeah, he overstated it, I wont' deny that.

 

But you also understated it - its not as if the age of consent being 16 makes it okay.

Do you really think it won't be?

 

The Republicans as much as any one have been focusing elections on values in order to drive out their religious base.  This issue really, really fires up the Democrats base and to a much lesser extend suppresses some of the Republican base a bit. 

 

  They've got at least a 50-50 shot at winning control of the Senate, looks like they're going to win a majority of governorships for the first time in a while.  The House is also in play, which it didn't look like it was going to be before.

799166[/snapback]

Two things, I don't understand why this would fire up the Democratic base. It's already pissed off as hell and ready to vote. I see this benefitting the Dems because it suppresses the Repub;lican base. This is what they are all about. Moral values is half their appeal. This is a spear to the chest for them. Hell, Bush wouldn't have won in 2004 without the Gay Marriage crap, which the GOP shelved right away, lol. So much for gay bashing.

 

Also, I thoght the Dems would win the House anyway. The Republican are the most corrupt bunch this country has had in a while and something needs to be done to restore checks and balances. Neither of these two parties should run all three branches. That just doesn't work well. I think the Senate is well less than 50% shot, maybe 35%. I think George Allen will stiull win in Virginia. Who cares if he is a pathelogical racist, this is Virginia we are talking about. The Dems will make it close, though. 51-48 with an independent who leans left.

 

Then on to 2008, and both parties will run people no one likes. GOP can't run a decent person like McCain or Rudy G., because they are too liberal, the South hates that. Hillary is a shoe in for Dems. Damn!

[Kelly the Dog]

No one was a child. And no one was even met let alone touched let alone abused let alone raped. What a bunch of garbage.

[true_blue_bill]

No one was a child. And no one was even met let alone touched let alone abused let alone raped. What a bunch of garbage.

799310[/snapback]

LOL! 16 year olds are children. What's really disgusting is that fat pig Hasert doing nothing about it. A man using his influence to sexually harass children is bad enough. Being able to stop and doing nothing is horrible.

[Chilly]

Two things, I don't understand why this would fire up the Democratic base. It's already pissed off as hell and ready to vote. I see this benefitting the Dems because it suppresses the Repub;lican base. This is what they are all about. Moral values is half their appeal. This is  a spear to the chest for them. Hell, Bush wouldn't have won in 2004 without the Gay Marriage crap, which the GOP shelved right away, lol. So much for gay bashing.

 

Kind of - the Democratic base has two issues: while its larger then the Republican base, it has a poor showing on election day; the Democratic base also has a higher rate of defection then the Republican base.

 

For the Dems, mobilizing the base is the biggest challenge in their elections. Republicans rarely defect, and this has been hurting the Dems over the past few elections. This story will help lower the Democratic defection rates this November.

 

Also, I thoght the Dems would win the House anyway. The Republican are the most corrupt bunch this country has had in a while and something needs to be done to restore checks and balances. Neither of these two parties should run all three branches. That just doesn't work well.

 

Which has nothing to do with actual poll results or elections. The polls show the opposite - the House is more likely to remain under Republican control then the senate at this point. The Democrats have to make up 16 seats to take the majority in the house, which is a ton.

 

You're looking at 40 contested seats in the House. The Dems would have to win 23/40 seats. Thats a tough margin to ask a party to win in an election like this one.

 

Currently there are 4 seats outside of the margin of error being held by Republicans, and 6 by Democrats. That means that 30 of these seats are currently statistical ties (within the margin of error). You're looking at Democrats having to win 10 out of 30 tossups to hold a majority in the House. Remember, that all of these 30 seats currently have Republican incumbents, which is a HUGE Republican advantage.

 

The House is in play, but it still likely will be (barely) Republican when all is said and done if today was the election. Whether this changes significantly as this story unfolds and as the election gets closer, or not, obviously remains to be seen.

 

I think the Senate is well less than 50% shot, maybe 35%. I think George Allen will stiull win in Virginia. Who cares if he is a pathelogical racist, this is Virginia we are talking about. The Dems will make it close, though. 51-48 with an independent who leans left.

 

There are 33 Senate seats up for the taking this election cycle. Democrats need to pick up 6 seats besides winning all of theirs to take it.

 

If we count Lieberman as a Democrat, 16 of the Democrats 17 incumbent senate seats are well outside the margin of error, with only New Jersey as the exception. Also, Democrats are outside of the MoE to pick up Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

 

So, that leaves 4 more seats that the Dems need. McCaskill, Menendez, Whitehouse, Ford Jr, Allen are all up in the air. Its looking increasingly like Chafee is in trouble, so Whitehouse is pretty set. Allen will most likely eek out a win vs Webb, while Tester will most likely take Montana. 2 more should do it, and Bernie Sanders is for all intents and purposes a Democrat. Its a 50/50 shot .

 

Then on to 2008, and both parties will run people no one likes. GOP can't run a decent person like McCain or Rudy G., because they are too liberal, the South hates that. Hillary is a shoe in for Dems. Damn!

799292[/snapback]

 

Right now Hillary is, and unless something changes she'll be the nominee. Then again, it seems like every primary, something changes, so its still too early to tell.

[Kelly the Dog]

LOL!  16 year olds are children. What's really disgusting is that fat pig Hasert doing nothing about it. A man using his influence to sexually harass children is bad enough. Being able to stop and doing nothing is horrible.

799353[/snapback]

It's bad, it's dumb, it's gross, it may be horrible, it's not rape and nothing close to it. Have you talked to 16 year olds lately? Especially ones that are smart enough to be congressional pages? These "kids" know what is going on in the world. Yes, they are not adults, yes they make stupid choices, yes they are easily led. But it's not like talking to a seven year old you can entice into a car. These guys know what they're doing.

[Acantha]

It's bad, it's dumb, it's gross, it may be horrible, it's not rape and nothing close to it. Have you talked to 16 year olds lately? Especially ones that are smart enough to be congressional pages? These "kids" know what is going on in the world. Yes, they are not adults, yes they make stupid choices, yes they are easily led. But it's not like talking to a seven year old you can entice into a car. These guys know what they're doing.

799374[/snapback]

[true_blue_bill]

Kind of - the Democratic base has two issues:  while its larger then the Republican base, it has a poor showing on election day;  the Democratic base also has a higher rate of defection then the Republican base.

 

For the Dems, mobilizing the base is the biggest challenge in their elections. Republicans rarely defect, and this has been hurting the Dems over the past few elections.  This story will help lower the Democratic defection rates this November.

Which has nothing to do with actual poll results or elections.  The polls show the opposite - the House is more likely to remain under Republican control then the senate at this point.  The Democrats have to make up 16 seats to take the majority in the house, which is a ton. 

 

799356[/snapback]

You obviously have studied this more than I have, but the fact that struck me the most was the number of GOP seats in the North East that are in trouble. The Dems sweep those alone--no easy task I know--and they win on that strength. Throw in Floey's seat and a few more outside the region and they have a good shot. I'd be really surprised if the Dems took the Seante. If Allen can hang on with all the dirt they dug up on him how can anyone beat these people?

 

On turn out, I read today, maybe in NYTimes, that the Dems have copied many of the successful strategies the GOP was using to increase turnout on election day by targeting individual voters instead of areas of consentration.

[true_blue_bill]

It's bad, it's dumb, it's gross, it may be horrible, it's not rape and nothing close to it. Have you talked to 16 year olds lately? Especially ones that are smart enough to be congressional pages? These "kids" know what is going on in the world. Yes, they are not adults, yes they make stupid choices, yes they are easily led. But it's not like talking to a seven year old you can entice into a car. These guys know what they're doing.

799374[/snapback]

Talk to 16 yr olds often, they are VERY young people. And part of this is using thier ambition against them. These kids are obviously looking to rise in the world and Foley was powerful. This is simply dispicable.

 

Someone posted this list on another web site and gees, does anyone see a patern?

 

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/pol/215136845.html

[John Adams]

Care to tell me which child rapist the right wing is defending?  I missed that one.

799182[/snapback]

 

Sounds like you're defending a child rapist now. Disgusting.

[GiantsOfAlbany]

I don't know, Bills fans. This is looking like the Democrats overreacting again like, when was it, in 2002 in Minnesota, and they ended up shooting themselves in the foot - big time!

 

Mondale (D) lost to Coleman ®.