WVUFootball29's 2006 Bills Preview

[WVUFootball29]

2006 Bills regular season preview and predictions.

 

With baseball season winding down and Labor Day now behind us, I’ve begun my transition to football season. What better to way build excitement for myself and others for the upcoming Buffalo Bills season than to sit down and take a look at what we have in store for us this season.

 

2005 Record (5-11)

 

Major Departures: Lawyer Milloy, Sam Adams, Mike Williams, Bennie Anderson, Eric Moulds, Ron Edwards, Jeff Posey, Tom Donahoe, Mike Mularkey & Co.

 

New Faces: Robert Royal, Larry Tripplett, Melvin Fowler, Peerless Price, Dick Jauron, Marv Levy, Andre Davis, Craig Nall, Tutan Reyes, Anthony Thomas.

 

2006 Draft Class: Donte Whinter (SS, Ohio State, 8th OVR), John McCargo (DT, NC State, 26th OVR), Ashton Youboty (CB, Ohio State, 70th OVR), Ko Simpson (FS, South Carolina, 105th OVR), Kyle Williams (DT, LSU, 134th OVR), Brad Butler (OT, Virginia, 143rd OVR), Keith Ellison (LB, Oregon State, 178th OVR), Terrance Pennington (OT, New Mexico, 216th OVR), Aaron Merz (OG, Cal, 248th OVR)

 

Returning Offensive Starters(Opening Day Rosters): 6

 

Returning Defensive Starters: 6

 

Position Preview

 

Quarterback: JP Losman has unceremoniously earned the starting QB job over aging journeyman Kelly Holcomb and the injury hampered Craig Nall. This season appears to be the make or break year for JP and he, as well as everyone else, knows this. From what I’ve seen of JP in this preseason he appears to be more relaxed and technically sound than last season. I attribute this to two factors, improved positional coaching and the removal of gimmick plays from the main playbook. However, at times Losman has still shown the tendency to have technical breakdowns from time to time, which forces his errant throws and bounce passes to receivers. He’s going to need to keep a level head this season, and hopefully an improved line will help him to do so.

 

Runningback: McGahee returns as the Bills feature back, and appears to have a refreshed attitude when it comes to the running game. He has looked very solid through the preseason, thanks in part to shaving a few pounds off in the offseason. As long as Willis averages between 20 and 25 touches per game he should finish the season with about 1500 yards and 15 TDs.

Right behind Willis is Anthony Thomas, a Jauron import from his days in Chicago. While Thomas is about the same size as Willis, he is more of a power runner compared to McGahee. Hopefully this will make opposing defenses respect the run more on 3rd and short as compared to last year when Shaud Williams replaced McGahee as the RB in most cases.

Coming as a surprise to most Buffalo fans, Shaud Williams made the team as the Bills #3 RB over fan favorite Lionel Gates. While Shaud’s lack of size isn’t ideal for a run heavy offense, he still is a reliable outside runner and has a solid pair of hands out of the backfield.

Daimon Shelton returns as the FB, much to the dismay of many Bills fans. However, Shelton as been a solid blocker over the years, and as long as he’s not used in gimmick plays, or depended on as the primary receiver out of the backfield he should have a solid season.

 

Wide Receiver: Lee Evans takes over for the disgruntled Eric Moulds. Evans has all the makings of a #1 wideout. Hopefully this season he will bring his game to a new level, especially since he will be seeing more double teams as the primary target.

Josh Reed returns to the Bills as the #2 receiver. Reed is a great run blocker, but a mediocre receiver. Reed hasn’t been the same since the opening game of his sophomore campaign when he dropped a sure touchdown off a flea-flicker from Drew Bledsoe. He did show promise as a receiver late last year, hopefully he’ll be used out of the slot more where he seems to get favorable match-ups and performs much better.

Peerless Price returns to the Bills after stints in Atlanta and Dallas. Price was a solid receiver for the Bills, but was unable to duplicate his stats as the primary receiver for the Falcons. Hopefully the experience away from Buffalo has humbled Peerless and will make him focus on being a solid playmaker instead of a superstar.

Sam Aiken, now in his 4th season with Buffalo appears to be the #4 WR. Sam has the same build as Eric Moulds, however has not been able to become his clone. This season in my mind is a make or break year of Aiken. Sam did look pretty good this preseason, so hopefully he can step things up and become our big target downfield.

Andre Davis and Roscoe Parrish round out the WR corps. Davis is a tall speedster with good hand and a habit of always being injured. If he can stay healthy he should be able to produce good numbers for the Bills. Parrish, the little burner from Miami, appears to see a little less time on the field as a receiver and will mostly play special teams. While Parrish has all the speed you could ever need, I feel his size will be the reason his game will not transfer well from college to the pros.

 

Tight Ends: There has been a major overhaul at this position. Mark Campbell was released and Tim Euhus was traded away to New Orleans. Robert Royal steps in as the new #1 TE. Royal, an import from the Redskins, brings a combination of size and speed to the position. Royal is an above average blocker and has solid hands, something that has been missing from this position for a few seasons now. If Losman can find him in the passing game, the field is really going to open up for the Bills.

Kevin Everett looks ready to take the field for the first time in the regular season after missing the entire year in 2005 to a knee injury. While a bit undersized for a TE, he has the speed to stretch the field with his speed. This should give the defense something to think about in 2TE sets. As long as he can stay healthy, Kevin should be a contributor to this offense.

Ryan Neufeld returns as a TE/Utility player with the ability to play FB and LS as well. The oft-injured Neufeld will see time all over the field this season, but isn’t expected to be an impact player.

 

Offensive Line: The Achilles’ heel of the offense the past few years, there are 3 new faces on this year’s opening day roster compared to last years. Melvin Fowler takes the place of Trey Teague at center. Fowler stepped in and finished the season as the starter for the Vikings last year and should be a considerable upgrade over the misplaced Teague.

Tutan Reyes takes over for Bennie Anderson at LG. Reyes started all 16 games for the Panthers last year and will bring a bit more athleticism to the position than we had with Anderson. His presence should help the inside running game immensely.

Jason Peters is now the permanent starter at RT. A rare combination of size and athletic ability, Peters is only going to get better with more game experience. A good showing this season will make Bills fans quickly forget about the bust Mike Williams (who the Bucs are already displeased with).

Mike Gandy and Chris Villarial return as the starters at LT and RG respectively. Gandy is an adequate tackle, but is much better as a guard and Villarial is a seasoned veteran on the downside of his career. Both should make it through the season just fine, but theirs days in Buffalo maybe numbered after the end of the year.

Duke Preston, Brad Butler, Aaron Merz, and Terrance Pennington round out the rest of the OL. Preston has shown promise both at the C and G position, but is still a season or two away from becoming a solid starter. Butler, Merz, and Pennington are all rookies, but the coaching staff apparently sees enough promise to let the other backups with NFL experience go.

 

Defensive Line: Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay return in 2006 as the starters at DE. Schobel had 12 sacks on a Bills defense that was ranked near the bottom of the NFL and is the only proven commodity on the line. Kelsay is a bit of a wild card this year. He has slimmed down since last year and is focused on playing strictly end, instead of rotating throughout the DL as he did last year.

Ryan Denney returns to spell Kelsay at LDE. Denney, while not a playmaker, is a contributor on the DL. His size and strength allows him to play any DL position making him useful in depth. Eric Powell has finally made an NFL roster after spending 2 seasons in NFL-Europe for the Packers.

Larry Tripplett and Kyle Williams are slated to start at DT. Tripplett looks to add an inside pass rush, which Buffalo severely lacked in 2005. Williams is a surprise to take the starting job over Tim Anderson. Williams had a solid preseason and appears to be ready to play at the NFL level, and if he is he might just be the steal of the draft.

John McCargo and Tim Anderson are the reserve DTs. McCargo is a first round pick that the Bills traded up for, much to the dismay of many draft experts. On paper McCargo looks to be of the same mold as Tripplett. However, McCargo also played on a DL with Mario Williams and Manny Lawson who were both first round picks as well. The question looms if McCargo is the real deal, or the product of a solid defense at NC State. Tim Anderson is now in his 3rd season with the Bills, and while he hasn’t played quite to the expectations set before him, he has started to show signs of progress. His play this season might determine if he has a job in 07.

 

Linebackers: The question on everyone’s mind is, “Will Takeo Spikes be the player he was before his injury?” In my opinion the answer is, yes. While Spikes is still less than a year removed from the injury, I feel that by the end of the year his hard work will pay off and he’ll be back to 100%. However, he’s not there yet and needs to take it easy still and let Mario Haggan take a few of his plays the first half of the year. Haggan is in his 4th year with the Bills and has been a solid reserve and special teams player. The better he plays this season the more Spikes can rest and be productive until he is completely healed.

London Fletcher returns for his 5th season with the Bills at MLB. Fletcher has been one of the most productive linebackers in Bills history, and one of the highest paid, which as led many to believe his time in Buffalo is coming to an end, especially with the Bills current youth movement. However, I see this as untrue given the fact that the only other MLB on the roster is John DiGiorgio, an UDFA rookie. As long as he is productive and is affordable, Fletcher will be a staple in this LB corps. DiGiorgio is a prospect out of Saginaw Valley State, a D-II school. John was named D-II Linebacker of the Year in 2005. DiGiorgio was a long shot to make this team, but it appears as if the Bills are convinced he has the talent because he is the only other MLB listed on the roster.

Angelo Crowell’s good play in the absence of Takeo Spikes last season has rewarded him with the starting WLB job in 2006. Crowell had 125 tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 interceptions for the Bills last year. He replaces Jeff Posey, now with the Redskins, with youth and speed to fit Dick Jauron’s Cover 2 Defense. Behind Crowell is rookie Keith Ellison, and journeyman Josh Stamer. Ellison is a 6th round pick out of Oregon State. He is a bit undersized for an OLB, but has the speed and range to make up for it in this defense. Keith started all his games at OSU and was awarded All-Pac-10 status and All-American honorable mention in 2005. Josh Stamer is in his 4th year in the NFL. Played mostly on special teams with the Bills the past 3 seasons, but has played well on defense in the past 2 preseasons.

 

Cornerback: Nate Clements is back for a 6th season with the Bills. The former Pro-Bowler had only 2 interceptions last year and appeared to get beat numerous times by the more prolific WRs in the NFL. It was a surprise after such a poor season the Bills would claim him as a franchise player. However, if Clements wants to see the money after this season is over, he’s going to have to put up some solid numbers to prove he is worth it. Starting across the field from Clements is the electrifying Terrance McGee. McGee had 3 interceptions for the Bills last year along with a kick returned for a TD. Terrence is a threat to score anytime he has the ball in his hands, however his coverage skills are a bit suspect at times. Hopefully this will change with a different defensive scheme and more experience.

Jabari Greer, Kiwaukee Thomas, and rookie Ashton Youboty are the reserve CBs. Greer is in his 3rd season with the Bills as an UDFA out of Tennessee. Greer has played well at nickelback and on special teams for the Bills. Kiwaukee Thomas is a free agent acquisition from Miami by way of Jacksonville. He is a decent cover corner but has only 11 starts in 6 NFL seasons. However, he is the most experienced CB on the team outside of Troy Vincent. Rookie Ashton Youboty was taken in the 3rd round of a Buffalo draft that focused mainly on defense. Youboty was a great cover CB in college, but only produced 5 interceptions at Ohio State. Ashton was 4th on his team in tackles with 56 and garnered 1st team All Big-10 honors last year.

 

Safeties: Troy Vincent and Matt Bowen are slated to start opening day at FS and SS respectively. However, by the end of the season both could be replaced by rookie safeties Ko Simpson and Donte Whitner. Vincent is in his 15th NFL season and his second at FS. Troy had 101 tackles and 4 interceptions for the Bills last year. While on the downside of his career, he has still been able to produce solid numbers when healthy and is a coach on the field. He may see some time at CB should Simpson surpass him as the FS during the year. Matt Bowen is another FA acquisition from the Redskins. Bowen played in 13 games last year and started 1 for the Redskins. Bowen is a decent special teams player and has been very active in the communities in which he has played in the past. While his character and hustle might have got him on this team, it probably won’t be enough to retain the starting job at SS over Whitner for very long. Donte Whitner was the 1st pick by the Levy Administration this year and the 8th overall pick in the draft. While many critics feel this was a reach at the time, Donte has the make up of a premier SS. Whitner was a All Big-10 selection last year and a 3rd team All-American Selection as well. His preseason holdout appears to have cost him the starting job for the time being, but he should earn that job before too long.

Coy Wire, must to the disgust of Bills fans across the nation has remained on the team as the 5th safety. Many feel that Wire has compromising pictures of those on the Bills staff and that is why he remains on the team despite his inability to play. In Wire’s defense, he has been a solid special teams player over the years, but even that hardly warrants him making the team as a 5th safety.

 

Special Teams Specialists: Rian Lindell and Brian Moorman are back, along with LS Mike Schneck. Schneck replaced John Dorenbos last year, and while he might not have the magic to pull a rabbit out of his helmet, he did seem to work magic on Lindell’s kicking game. Lindell was 29 for 35 last year, including 3 for 3 from beyond 50 yards. Brian Moorman returns for his 6th season with the Bills. Last year he set career marks in Punt Average and Punts Inside the 20 yard line. A solid punter, Moorman has been one of a few players the Bills have been able to count on in the clutch the past few seasons.

 

Coaching Staff: Dick Jauron returns to Buffalo as Head Coach. This will be his second official stint as an NFL HC(was an interim HC in Detroit last year.) DJ went 35-46 with the Bears from 1999-2003, including a 13-3 season in 2001 that he earned Coach of the Year honors for. While his total record is not stellar, it is still 35 more wins as HC than his previous 2 counterparts combined and that experience, along with his attitude and demeanor have many Bills fans in his corner.

Steve Fairchild comes in as the Bills new OC and his counterpart Perry Fewell will run the defense. Fairchild comes from St. Louis where he was the OC for Mike Martz and an explosive Rams offense. Hopefully he can find a way to properly use the talent the Bills have on offense, something many of his predecessors were unable to do. Fewell comes to the Bills after being the Bears DB coach in 2005. Fewell’s secondary produced 2 Pro Bowlers in 2005 (Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher).

 

Schedule and Predictions:

Sun. Sept. 10 at New England (W)

Sun. Sept. 17 at Miami (L)

Sept. 24 NY JETS (W)

Sun. Oct. 1 MINNESOTA (L)

Sun. Oct. 8 at Chicago (L)

Sun. Oct. 15 at Detroit (W)

Sun. Oct. 22 NEW ENGLAND (L)

Sun. Oct. 29 BYE

Sun. Nov. 5 GREEN BAY (W)

Sun. Nov. 12 at Indianapolis (L)

Sun. Nov. 19 at Houston (W)

Sun. Nov. 26 JACKSONVILLE (L)

Sun. Dec. 3 SAN DIEGO (W)

Sun. Dec. 10 at NY Jets (W)

Sun. Dec. 17 MIAMI (L)

Sun. Dec. 24 TENNESSEE (W)

Sun. Dec. 31 at Baltimore (L)

Overall 8-8 record

 

The way I see things, the Bills are their own worst enemies this season. They could be on the playoff bubble if they play solid mistake free football this year, but that has been the real Buffalo killer the past few seasons. Too many mistakes and missed opportunities have cost them wins and even a playoff appearance in 2004. If the coaching staff can keep the players focused and doing the little things, I truly believe that they can be an 8-8 team this year. However, if the mistakes fail to cease and Losman doesn’t emerge as a QB this season I can easily see this as a 4-12 team with a top 3 pick next year.

[UHSLA]

The oft-injured Neufeld will see time all over the field this season, but isn’t expected to be an impact player.

 

Oft-injured. What does that mean? He had a knee injury at the end of last season and sat out a week in training camp with a minor foot injury. In the three years he's been here, it's the only time he's missed playing time because of injuries. That's oft-injured?

 

Daimon Shelton returns as the FB, much to the dismay of many Bills fans. However, Shelton as been a solid blocker over the years, and as long as he’s not used in gimmick plays, or depended on as the primary receiver out of the backfield he should have a solid season.

 

True that.

 

Great assessment. I'm excited to see how things go. I like the notion of the Bills being their own worst enemy. It's true. They've got the talent. Hopefully they can bring it all together and have a solid showing this year.

[Gary M]

People keep saying this a young team, but after reading this, I have to say that they are only young at QB. The Bills have experience at almost all the key positions.

 

If things click for JP this team will be winners.

 

What really surprises me is that every one picks the Dolphins over the Bills in week two. They may not beat the Pats, But I really think they beat the Phins.

[Zona]

People keep saying this a young team, but after reading this, I have to say that they are only young at QB. The Bills have experience at almost all the key positions.

 

If things click for JP this team will be winners.

 

What really surprises me is that every one picks the Dolphins over the Bills in week two. They may not beat the Pats, But I really think they beat the Phins.

762807[/snapback]

 

I am more surprised that alot of people think the dolphins will beat us in Dec in Buffalo. No way the Bills lose that game unless we have already tanked the season, which I dont see happening.

[Kelly the Dog]

Pretty good summary. Whitner starts over Bowen I think though opening day. I believe they are just keeping Bowen on the depth chart as #1 as part of the old "you don't lose your job to injury" and to keep Whitner hungry. But I think Donte starts opening week and the rest of the year baring injury.

[tennesseeboy]

Good summary. I think we beat Chicago and go into the bye 4-3 and might possibly (realistically possibly) finish the season with 9 wins. 8 or 9 wins would be a terrific season! So many unknowns here. Losman is looking fine so far, lots of new guys on the O-line who should get better as the season progresses, Whitner is a quetion mark. Let the games begin!

[Like A Mofo]

Good summary WVU!!! Its amazing, but when I read NFl previews and then read posts like this and others here, people here are not paid and yet the previews here are as good if not better then the ones on the newsstands

[Fixxxer]

Great work WVUFootball29.

[WVUFootball29]

Oft-injured.  What does that mean?  He had a knee injury at the end of last season and sat out a week in training camp with a minor foot injury.  In the three years he's been here, it's the only time he's missed playing time because of injuries.  That's oft-injured?

True that.

762801[/snapback]

 

I apologize, it appears I have mistaken Neufeld with another 3rd string TE. I did go back and check and Neufeld has hardly missed a game with the Bills.

 

Pretty good summary. Whitner starts over Bowen I think though opening day. I believe they are just keeping Bowen on the depth chart as #1 as part of the old "you don't lose your job to injury" and to keep Whitner hungry. But I think Donte starts opening week and the rest of the year baring injury.

 

Thanks Kelly, I'd love to see Whitner start, but he was listed as 2 on the DC...and now there's the rumor that Wire is going to start over both, god save us. But the blog also said that Whitner will see a great deal of time. So, maybe he wont start, but he'll still have plenty of opportunity week 1 to take the job for week 2

 

  Good summary WVU!!! Its amazing, but when I read NFl previews and then read posts like this and others here, people here are not paid and yet the previews here are as good if not better then the ones on the newsstands

 

Thank you TB...I think a lot of it has to do with writers just popping something out to make a little scratch. in my case, I'm just a big fan who enjoys to do a little writing from time to time. It also helps that I'm a huge Bills fan which made this almost a labor of love. Go Bills!

[TigerJ]

I don't know that JP Losman "unceremoniously earned" the starting QB spot this season. It looked to me as if there was a lot of ceremony to it with the preannounced competition and all. There wasn't a day of training camp went by that Bills fans everywhere knew what the completion percentages of Losman and Holcomb were that day, and how many long passes JP attempted and completed versus Kelly "Dump-off" Holcomb.

[daquixers_is_back]

You have us losing to Minnesota and Jacksonville (this game in the cold mind you) IN Buffalo and losing to a Baltimore team that has been switching nearly everything to get Lewis back into the backfield, and a QB in his 12th year who has seem to have lost his legs in recent years. I just dont see us losing to Baltimore for some reason. Although I guess it wouldnt be a huge suprise, but I would be stunned if we lost to Minnesota and Jacksonville at home.