What happens to us if Cutler goes first?

[Sisyphean Bills]

Mario Williams?

 

I'd love to have a chance at Super Mario. Oh well.

 

Also, a quick hit on the Losman stuff.  He threw 228 passes and completed 113 of them for 49.6%.  If he completed one more that percentage would start with a 5 instead of a 4, and we would probably be a little less worried, strangely.  Also, it would have taken 12 more completions to get to 55%.  Not making any excuses for the guy, but a few Josh Reed drops, bad protection, playing hurt in the NE game, and terrible play calling by Mularkey factored in too.

 

After coming back from his "month off" he completed 56% against KC, 55% against SD, 55% against Carolina, all three very solid teams.  We don't know what we have with him yet, but I am very optimistic.  We do not take a QB in the draft this year.  We start JPL 16 times in 2006 with the best team and play calling we can have around him, then evaluate more next winter.

618224[/snapback]

 

A quick question: has anybody bothered to figure out how many incompletions were throw-aways where Losman was just getting rid of the damn thing to save his life? I mean that could easily be 10-20 balls behind the scab line he was playing with.

[Ramius]

I'd love to have a chance at Super Mario.  Oh well.

A quick question: has anybody bothered to figure out how many incompletions were throw-aways where Losman was just getting rid of the damn thing to save his life?  I mean that could easily be 10-20 balls behind the scab line he was playing with.

618250[/snapback]

 

Interesting point. I call a losman incomplete on 3rd and 10 the same thing as a 2 yard checkdown by holcomb on 3rd and 10.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Interesting point. I call a losman incomplete on 3rd and 10 the same thing as a 2 yard checkdown by holcomb on 3rd and 10.

618251[/snapback]

 

Yeah, those 6-inch completions may make the final stat line weigh in Holcomb's favor, but is trying to go through the proper progression and trying to make a play down the field only to have to throw it away because nobody can block really considered worse than flicking it 6 inches on a 3rd or 4th down and 10?

[Tasker]

Yeah, those 6-inch completions may make the final stat line weigh in Holcomb's favor, but is trying to go through the proper progression and trying to make a play down the field only to have to throw it away because nobody can block really considered worse than flicking it 6 inches on a 3rd or 4th down and 10?

618254[/snapback]

 

I completely agree. I don't want to exaggerate and take the bad throws off of JPL's shoulders, but since the difference between his 49% and a 55% is 12 catches, you figure that between the times he got rid of the ball instead of taking a sack, the balls Reed dropped, and playing hurt in bad weather against New England he might be better than a 49% QB, and holding up that number is silly (whether compared against Elway or Eli Manning).

 

That doesn't forgive him for missing an open Moulds against Carolina , but I think this kid with the right team and coaching, and a fair chance, can be our QB for a long time, and we can focus on building the rest of our team around him and Willis. We should certainly "open it up" in camp, although if he and Holcomb are the two choices, it better come out with JP on top. We should certainly review next winter with a 16 start season under his belt, and go another direction, but this off season we need to forget about QB aquisitions, and build the rest of the team the best we can.

[Kelly the Dog]

Kelly -

 

Just because someone disagrees with you doesn't mean that they did not watch the games.

 

Part of the problem is that Losman is just plain not nearly as quick nor as good at making reads that Holcomb.  He's also much less willing to take what the defense gives him than Holcomb.  So, some of that difference is Losman's Bledsoe-itis and holding onto the ball longer, even given the same playcall.

 

And let us be clear here - Losman completed less than 50% of his passes.  There is zero excuse for that in any NFL offense.  If you sustain a sub-50% completion percentage over 9 games you are just plain not that good.  Period.  For example, Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn't exactly in a dink-and-dunk offense, and he still managed to complete 56% of his passes.  So, even if your theory were true, Losman was playing in an NFL offense last season, and while perhaps the difference in play calling might never have allowed him to match Holcomb's fantastic 67% passing, the simple truth remains that if Losman was *any good* last season, he would not have been sub-50%.

 

You're trying to use a detail to explain away a chasm, and it just doesn't hold water.

 

JDG

618213[/snapback]

How much money do you make in a year?

 

I will bet you all of that, whatever it is, that the game plan and play calls were different for Losman and for Holcomb. And I am not saying that just because someone disagrees with me it means they didnt watch the games. I am saying just watch the figgin' games. It is obvious to aliens that the play calls were different and the game plans were different, and the coaches asked Losman to do different things than they asked Holcomb to do. A five year old could see that. It's not even an opinion, it's what happened.

[Orton's Arm]

One thing I'll say about Losman is this: if you look at the total number of points scored when Losman was QB the second time around, and take away the points produced by the defense and return units, he averaged seven fewer points per game than Holcomb. (You take away the defense/return unit points for Holcomb too.)

 

A difference of that magnitude provides strong evidence that Holcomb significantly outplayed Losman, even when just looking at Losman's second stint.

 

Should the Bills take a QB in the first round? Certainly first round QBs can be busts, as perhaps evidenced by Losman himself. But offensive tackles taken fourth overall can be busts too. So can first round defensive ends drafted by GMs on their way to San Diego. I don't know that there's any such thing as a "safe" player position to draft. So yeah, if I'm Levy, I'm taking a long, hard look at all the options with the first round pick, including QB.

[BoondckCL]

One thing I'll say about Losman is this: if you look at the total number of points scored when Losman was QB the second time around, and take away the points produced by the defense and return units, he averaged seven fewer points per game than Holcomb. (You take away the defense/return unit points for Holcomb too.)

 

A difference of that magnitude provides strong evidence that Holcomb significantly outplayed Losman, even when just looking at Losman's second stint.

 

Should the Bills take a QB in the first round? Certainly first round QBs can be busts, as perhaps evidenced by Losman himself. But offensive tackles taken fourth overall can be busts too. So can first round defensive ends drafted by GMs on their way to San Diego. I don't know that there's any such thing as a "safe" player position to draft. So yeah, if I'm Levy, I'm taking a long, hard look at all the options with the first round pick, including QB.

618350[/snapback]

 

Agreed. With the looking at all the positions in the draft. It's just that he will be looking at some more than others.

 

I think Losman is not a bust seeing as it was only his first year in the drivers seat. We all know that sometimes teenagers get into accidents when they first start driving, but that doesn't mean that they will never be good drivers. What makes a teenager a good driver is learning from the experience of their accident(s) and using what they have learned to better themselves.

 

That is what will make or break Losman, along with his stamina from the negativity from most of the people in Buffalo.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

One thing I'll say about Losman is this: if you look at the total number of points scored when Losman was QB the second time around, and take away the points produced by the defense and return units, he averaged seven fewer points per game than Holcomb. (You take away the defense/return unit points for Holcomb too.)

It's not that simple. Losman played against some of the better teams during his return, whereas Holcomb didn't. Against the best teams Holcomb played, the Bengals and Broncos, he led the offense to 13 and 17 (he led them to a garbage-time TD, as long as we're keeping score) points, respectively. And Losman was essentially a rookie and Holcomb was a 9-year vet.

 

I'd work on the lines first before thinking about spending a high pick on a QB (again).

[sfladave]

One thing I'll say about Losman is this: if you look at the total number of points scored when Losman was QB the second time around, and take away the points produced by the defense and return units, he averaged seven fewer points per game than Holcomb. (You take away the defense/return unit points for Holcomb too.)

 

A difference of that magnitude provides strong evidence that Holcomb significantly outplayed Losman, even when just looking at Losman's second stint.

 

Should the Bills take a QB in the first round? Certainly first round QBs can be busts, as perhaps evidenced by Losman himself. But offensive tackles taken fourth overall can be busts too. So can first round defensive ends drafted by GMs on their way to San Diego. I don't know that there's any such thing as a "safe" player position to draft. So yeah, if I'm Levy, I'm taking a long, hard look at all the options with the first round pick, including QB.

618350[/snapback]

JP played in 5 games his 2nd time around and he scored 7 TDs. In Kelly's last 5 games he scored 6 TDs(5 passing 1 rushing).

 

JP had an average QB rating of 77.48, Kelly 80.88.

 

JP had 5 fumbles and 6 interceptions, Kelly had 6 fumbles and 6 interceptions.

 

How can you suggest that Holcomb outplayed Losman much less significantly outplayed him?

[Orton's Arm]

JP played in 5 games his 2nd time around and he scored 7 TDs. In Kelly's last 5 games he scored 6 TDs(5 passing 1 rushing).

 

JP had an average QB rating of 77.48, Kelly 80.88.

 

JP had 5 fumbles and 6 interceptions, Kelly had 6 fumbles and 6 interceptions.

 

How can you suggest that Holcomb outplayed Losman much less significantly outplayed him?

618355[/snapback]

Easy. I'm looking at the total number of points the offense scores, not just TD passes. What do I care if a drive ends with a one yard McGahee run, or a 1 yard TD pass? It's seven points either way.

 

Also, bear in mind that during Losman's second stint, two of his TD passes were from drives that began inside FG range. It's great that he helped turn three points into seven, but it's not like he drove the offense the length of the field to get those points.

 

When looking at total team scoring, it's obvious Holcomb was far more efficient at moving the Bills down the field and putting points on the board. An average of seven points per game more efficient.

[Navy Chief Navy Pride]

Easy. I'm looking at the total number of points the offense scores, not just TD passes. What do I care if a drive ends with a one yard McGahee run, or a 1 yard TD pass? It's seven points either way.

 

Also, bear in mind that during Losman's second stint, two of his TD passes were from drives that began inside FG range. It's great that he helped turn three points into seven, but it's not like he drove the offense the length of the field to get those points.

 

When looking at total team scoring, it's obvious Holcomb was far more efficient at moving the Bills down the field and putting points on the board. An average of seven points per game more efficient.

618394[/snapback]

 

 

As long as we can keep throwing 5 yd outs on 3rd and 9 i'm a happy camper.

[Orton's Arm]

It's not that simple.  Losman played against some of the better teams during his return, whereas Holcomb didn't.  Against the best teams Holcomb played, the Bengals and Broncos, he led the offense to 13 and 17 (he led them to a garbage-time TD, as long as we're keeping score) points, respectively.  And Losman was essentially a rookie and Holcomb was a 9-year vet.

 

I'd work on the lines first before thinking about spending a high pick on a QB (again).

618353[/snapback]

Holcomb led the offense to 23 points against the Bengals. There were over ll minutes left when the Bills' offense completed its final TD drive, so it was anything but a garbage time TD. The final Bills drive began with 7 minutes on the clock, and ended with less than a minute. The drive resulted in a FG, putting the Bills up by 3. On the ensuing Bengals drive, Terrence McGee returned an INT for a TD in the final seconds of the game, to make the lead 10 and seal the win.

 

The fewest points Holcomb ever led the offense to were 14, and that was when the team failed to get off the plane against Oakland. During Losman's second stint, the only time he led the offense to at least 14 points was against Miami.

[Sisyphean Bills]

As long as we can keep throwing 5 yd outs on 3rd and 9 i'm a happy camper.

618396[/snapback]

 

I think what Arm is saying is that with Holcomb starting all 16 games, the Bills get 6 wins at best.

[Navy Chief Navy Pride]

I think what Arm is saying is that with Holcomb starting all 16 games, the Bills get 6 wins at best. 

618400[/snapback]

 

 

My point exactly...I think he is a good off the bench guy but he is no starter.

[Orton's Arm]

My point exactly...I think he is a good off the bench guy but he is no starter.

618405[/snapback]

By no means am I saying Holcomb is the second coming of Montana. He's probaby better than 1/3 of the starters in the league--guys like Boller and Frerotte and so forth. But the Bills should seriously examine upgrading the QB position through the draft.

[Tasker]

By no means am I saying Holcomb is the second coming of Montana. He's probaby better than 1/3 of the starters in the league--guys like Boller and Frerotte and so forth. But the Bills should seriously examine upgrading the QB position through the draft.

618412[/snapback]

 

Or we could play Losman while upgrading the rest of the team as much as possible (especially both lines), and after having given him a 16 game shot (instead of the BS 5-11 nightmare that Mularkey weaved in 2005) we can evaluate next winter if we need to find another option, and our team will be stronger for it. We know our lines suck, we don't have play makers at TE, we have some holes on D. We don't know if our Quarterback will be good or not yet.

 

Play JP, fix the play calling (maybe let Willis play sometimes!), and upgrade the team the best we can, focusing on the lines. Then next winter let's talk about how our QB situation is looking.

[The Dean]

Or we could play Losman while upgrading the rest of the team as much as possible (especially both lines), and after having given him a 16 game shot (instead of the BS 5-11 nightmare that Mularkey weaved in 2005) we can evaluate next winter if we need to find another option, and our team will be stronger for it.  We know our lines suck, we don't have play makers at TE, we have some holes on D.  We don't know if our Quarterback will be good or not yet.

 

Play JP, fix the play calling (maybe let Willis play sometimes!), and upgrade the team the best we can, focusing on the lines.  Then next winter let's talk about how our QB situation is looking.

618530[/snapback]

 

 

What a concept!

 

Course, this is all beyond the Arm's comprehension.

[Orton's Arm]

Course, this is all beyond the Arm's comprehension.

618536[/snapback]

Deanie-baby strikes again!

[Orton's Arm]

Or we could play Losman while upgrading the rest of the team as much as possible (especially both lines), and after having given him a 16 game shot (instead of the BS 5-11 nightmare that Mularkey weaved in 2005) we can evaluate next winter if we need to find another option, and our team will be stronger for it.  We know our lines suck, we don't have play makers at TE, we have some holes on D.  We don't know if our Quarterback will be good or not yet.

 

Play JP, fix the play calling (maybe let Willis play sometimes!), and upgrade the team the best we can, focusing on the lines.  Then next winter let's talk about how our QB situation is looking.

618530[/snapback]

I see where you're coming from. Certainly the Bills have enough needs along the line of scrimmage that you could easily spend the 2006 draft just on that!

 

But to make the best decision, the Bills have to look at all the factors:

- How the QBs in this year's draft compare to those likely to be available next year

- The chances of Losman being a success

- The quality of the player the Bills would have to give up to draft a QB

 

For example, let's say Cutler fell to #8. Also let's say the following was true:

- The Bills felt Cutler was a lot better than anyone they could take next year

- The chances of Losman being a success were low

- The best non-QB available at #8 wasn't that great

 

Now you're looking at a situation where it would make sense to take Cutler. It takes so long to develop a QB, that if the Bills don't yet have the QB of the future on the roster right now, they'd do well to acquire him as soon as possible.

[Navy Chief Navy Pride]

I see where you're coming from. Certainly the Bills have enough needs along the line of scrimmage that you could easily spend the 2006 draft just on that!

 

But to make the best decision, the Bills have to look at all the factors:

- How the QBs in this year's draft compare to those likely to be available next year

- The chances of Losman being a success

- The quality of the player the Bills would have to give up to draft a QB

 

For example, let's say Cutler fell to #8. Also let's say the following was true:

- The Bills felt Cutler was a lot better than anyone they could take next year

- The chances of Losman being a success were low

- The best non-QB available at #8 wasn't that great

 

Now you're looking at a situation where it would make sense to take Cutler. It takes so long to develop a QB, that if the Bills don't yet have the QB of the future on the roster right now, they'd do well to acquire him as soon as possible.

618592[/snapback]

 

 

ARM,

 

it really doesn't matter who the QB is if the O-Line sucks monkey ass! I for one will not and cannot give up on JP for that reason alone. I also firmly believe Marv will address the lines first and foremost. After and only after we give JP 1 FULL YEAR (16 GAMES or better) with a quality O-Line will I submit to the fact that we need to find a QB of the future.