Did Troy Vincent suck last year?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The stats you cite in your argument that Vincent was a solid player (not great, not bad, but solid) are as follows:

 

4 Interceptions (20 yards per return)

2 Fumble recoveries

 

These are a reflection of stellar play during 6 snaps over the course of a 16 game season.  This represents a  minute fraction of actual number of snaps for which TV was on the field -- and it is the subpar performance in those snaps that statistics simply do not capture.

 

Perhaps it was improper for me to say he "sucks" (if I did indeed say that), but the bottom line is that he is not a good player by any stretch of the imagination, ESPECIALLY as a safety.  Maybe the Cover 2 suits his skills better -- but there are certain fundamentals in this game that are scheme-independent, such as tackling,  anticipation and speed.  It is some of these fundamentals that were lacking in Vincent from my vantage point (and those Bills fans that I was watching with).  Football isn't nearly as complicated as many tend to make it.  At the end of the day, it's about throwing, catching, blocking tackling and running.  I am sick of debating whether or not a new scheme will suddenly turn a marginal, aging player into a solid contributor.  I have gone down that road -- Bledsoe, RJ, Chris Watson, and Mike Williams come to mind.

598119[/snapback]

 

I think we are closing in on an adequate assessment of Vincent and D play last year.

 

First, thank you for acknowledging that I went to the stats NOT TO PROVE Vincent was a great or even very good player, but went to them because they fairly strongly inciate he did not suck.

 

It's probably simply semantics (which is really all we have in the written words of these posts) but I would not even asert that Vincent was a solid player last year as I do not think anyone on the Bills D was a solid player last year because the D results were so bad.

 

I think it is reasonable to say that Bills defenders like Fletcher who were active and all over the field, and who amassed good stats played well within a very flawed unit. I think it is reasonable to say that Schobel showed great flexibility in both wracking up some nice sack numbers and also doing pass coverage with far more athleticism than most DL players. I think it is reasonable to say that McGee showed flashes of brilliance mostly as a solid kick returner but also his team leading INT numbers and solid INT return #s bode well for the future for him.

 

As far as Vincent goes, his team leading INT #s in conjunction with his small but still tied for the team lead in fumble recovery numbers point to specific contributions to the team which exceed that of most other Bills defenders.

 

However, his age, and the ongoing reports of some of lousy tackling by Vincent point to part of the problems of the Ds and his lack of production last year.

 

The important thing for the Bills is to ask the question of what about next season.

 

Vincent has a number of real negatives that must be factored in:

 

1. He is 34 and well into the backside of his NFL career.

2. He will have a significant (but less than Milloy's) cap hit next year.

3. He has another big job as Pres of the NFLPA which is good as it demonstrates that his peers see him as a leader and bright character guy, but which may potentially cause some disstraction and conflict with management in a negotiating year.

 

However, I think there are some clear positives as well:

 

1. He tied for the team lead with a signficant # of INTS.

2. He tied for the team lead in FRs though only 2 ain't alot but no Bill got a lot.

3. His resume does include some outstanding performances as a cover guy at CB who demonstrated the cover skills and speed to merit several Pro Bowl selections and he has pulled in a significant # of INTs in his career.

4. He has middlin production for the Bills in number of tackles credited to him last year which strongly indicates he certainly is not great or very good but also indicates he does not suck (which I take to mean his performance is well into the lower third of the team or the league).

 

I think the very good news for the Bills lies in what we plan to emphasize in asking him to do assuming he is with us next year.

 

1. In the zone-blitz as Gray ran it, the safeties are called upon to play closer to the LOS and provide serious back-up and even primary run control work as the LBs may well be the primary blitzers or the DL may be dropping back in pass coverage (it also should be noted that the Bills did use their safeties to play both run support or pass coverage roles more than teams traditionally do where the SS is the run stopper almost always and the FS is a centerfielder almost always, though there was a bias toward Vincent playing more of a centerfielder role he was called upon in the zone blitz to take a primary role in run support unlike traditional safety usage from what I saw.

 

The very good news for the Bills use of Vincent is with Jauron saying we are going to use more Cover 2, this acually will diminish the use of Vincent in exactly the area folks complain about (his tackling) and instead use him in a role he handled well in his career (pass coverage) and lends itself to his his resume (he has seen a lot over the years and diagnosing plays will be a key for good Cover 2 work by the safety.

 

2. The big demand though of Cover 2 is that the safeties will need to cover a lot of ground as they divide the field in half. However, I am a lot more worried about Milloy having lost a step from his moderate/good speed than I am about Vincent also having lost a step from his baseline of good/very good speed.

 

Before folks give Vincent too hard a time about him being in the wrong place last year, remember that this was merely his first full season as a safety. Particularly as he was learning the new position within a troubled D, it certainly does not mean at all that Vincent has learned as much as he is going to learn about safety play. In fact to the contrary, It will not be shocking at all if he is much better at being in the right place at the right time. In fact, a much more likely worry is not that Vincent will not be able to figure out where should he be, but that he will not be able to get there because he is on the backside of his career.

 

I think folks are foolish to site Ron Woodson as an example that a converted CB should be expected to pick-up the safety game immediately. The best can in fact do this as shown by Woodson. However, just because a player does not reach Woodson's level of performance that does not mean at all that he is a bad player who will never be any good.

 

I think that the team leading INT #s that Vincent had last year are important because they indicate that he can play well. he key for him (and much of the Bills D unit) is to be more consistent.

 

3. The increased focus on the pass rush will help a lot. The biggest problem which I see in Vincent's game is that like virtually all DBs, he really needs a pass rush in order to perform as well as he can.

 

I think a viewer is making big mistake to assess how well a player will do based solely on an assessment of their play. I think the key in this team game ios to assess how well his skill sets and deficits match and merge with the skillsets and deficits of his teammates.

 

I think the key for positive production out of Vincent in 06 is that if the opposing QB is throwing in a hurry because a new DT and a good rushing FA DE are in the QBs face, then opposing receivers will not even have much of chance to get into the deep part of our Cover 2 or that the safeties will read the QBs body language and eyes and pick a few passes off.

 

Again, this is not to simply let TV off the hook, this strikes me as the real world we are working with.

 

Would I prefer a differe safety than Vincent who after 5 years in the league is hitting his peak as a player, has enough experience to make good reads but is young enough to make plays? You bet! This is not Vincent.

 

However, since I do not see such a player available at an affordable cost with this skillset, I think our D switch plays to TVs strengths and away from his weaknesses and he should be able to do the job. Is he older? Yes! However, are there indications that he has something left (yes his team leadin INT and FR #s) and some indication that he is at least middling rather than plain sucking in his weaker areas? Yes, his middlin on the team tackle numbers

 

I am also pleased that he started all 16 last year. It is missing a few starts as Villarial did which is one of the signs that age may catching up with a player.

 

If folks have safety concerns, though I also think that the Cover 2 will be a boon to Lawyer Milloy, I a, much more worried about him rather than Vincent as far as their prospects. The yare both old guys on the backside of their careers, but Milloy has made his living as a tackler rather than a cover guy and seems to have a lower baseline of speed than Vincent that both have slipped from.

 

Even worse, though TVs cap number is not small, Milloy's is even higher. I'd look to him as a likely problem we may be forced to replace rather than worry about Vincent.

 

Milloy struck me as a more valuable player than TV last year at safety. However, the safeties will be asked/required to different things in the Cover 2 than in the run blitz. I think the Cover 2 helps both these players who I do not think have enough left to excel in the zone blitz. However, the Cover 2 strikes me as far more playing to TVs strengths than Milloys.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I think we are closing in on an adequate assessment of Vincent and D play last year.

 

First, thank you for acknowledging that I went to the stats NOT TO PROVE Vincent was a great or even very good player, but went to them because they fairly strongly inciate he did not suck.

 

It's probably simply semantics (which is really all we have in the written words of these posts) but I would not even asert that Vincent was a solid player last year as I do not think anyone on the Bills D was a solid player last year because the D results were so bad.

 

I think it is reasonable to say that Bills defenders like Fletcher who were active and all over the field, and who amassed good stats played well within a very flawed unit.  I think it is reasonable to say that Schobel showed great flexibility in both wracking up some nice sack numbers and also doing pass coverage with far more athleticism than most DL players. I think it is reasonable to say that McGee showed flashes of brilliance mostly as a solid kick returner but also his team leading INT numbers and solid INT return #s bode well for the future for him.

 

As far as Vincent goes, his team leading INT #s in conjunction with his small but still tied for the team lead in fumble recovery numbers point to specific contributions to the team which exceed that of most other Bills defenders.

 

However, his age, and the ongoing reports of some of lousy tackling by Vincent point to part of the problems of the Ds and his lack of production last year.

 

The important thing for the Bills is to ask the question of what about next season.

 

Vincent has a number of real negatives that must be factored in:

 

1. He is 34 and well into the backside of his NFL career.

2. He will have a significant (but less than Milloy's) cap hit next year.

3. He has another big job as Pres of the NFLPA which is good as it demonstrates that his peers see him as a leader and bright character guy, but which may potentially cause some disstraction and conflict with management in a negotiating year.

 

However, I think there are some clear positives as well:

 

1. He tied for the team lead with a signficant # of INTS.

2. He tied for the team lead in FRs though only 2 ain't alot but no Bill got a lot.

3. His resume does include some outstanding performances as a cover guy at CB who demonstrated the cover skills and speed to merit several Pro Bowl selections and he has pulled in a significant # of INTs in his career.

4. He has middlin production for the Bills in number of tackles credited to him last year which strongly indicates he certainly is not great or very good but also indicates he does not suck (which I take to mean his performance is well into the lower third of the team or the league).

 

I think the very good news for the Bills lies in what we plan to emphasize in asking him to do assuming he is with us next year.

 

1. In the zone-blitz as Gray ran it, the safeties are called upon to play closer to the LOS and provide serious back-up and even primary run control work as the LBs may well be the primary blitzers or the DL may be dropping back in pass coverage (it also should be noted that the Bills did use their safeties to play both run support or pass coverage roles more than teams traditionally do where the SS is the run stopper almost always and the FS is a centerfielder almost always, though there was a bias toward Vincent playing more of a centerfielder role he was called upon in the zone blitz to take a primary role in run support unlike traditional safety usage from what I saw.

 

The very good news for the Bills use of Vincent is with Jauron saying we are going to use more Cover 2, this acually will diminish the use of Vincent in exactly the area folks complain about (his tackling) and instead use him in a role he handled well in his career (pass coverage) and lends itself to his his resume (he has seen a lot over the years and diagnosing plays will be a key for good Cover 2 work by the safety.

 

2. The big demand though of Cover 2 is that the safeties will need to cover a lot of ground as they divide the field in half. However, I am a lot more worried about Milloy having lost a step from his moderate/good speed than I am about Vincent also having lost a step from his baseline of good/very good speed.

 

Before folks give Vincent too hard a time about him being in the wrong place last year, remember that this was merely his first full season as a safety. Particularly as he was learning the new position within a troubled D, it certainly does not mean at all that Vincent has learned as much as he is going to learn about safety play. In fact to the contrary, It will not be shocking at all if he is much better at being in the right place at the right time. In fact, a much more likely worry is not that Vincent will not be able to figure out where should he be, but that he will not be able to get there because he is on the backside of his career.

 

I think folks are foolish to site Ron Woodson as an example that a converted CB should be expected to pick-up the safety game immediately. The best can in fact do this as shown by Woodson. However, just because a player does not reach Woodson's level of performance that does not mean at all that he is a bad player who will never be any good.

 

I think that the team leading INT #s that Vincent had last year are important because they indicate that he can play well. he key for him (and much of the Bills D unit) is to be more consistent.

 

3. The increased focus on the pass rush will help a lot.  The biggest problem which I see in Vincent's game is that like virtually all DBs, he really needs a pass rush in order to perform as well as he can.

 

I think a viewer is making  big mistake to assess how well a player will do based solely on an assessment of their play.  I think the key in this team game ios to assess how well his skill sets and deficits match and merge with the skillsets and deficits of his teammates.

 

I think the key for positive production out of Vincent in 06 is that if the opposing QB is throwing in a hurry because a new DT and a good rushing FA DE are in the QBs face, then opposing receivers will not even have much of chance to get into the deep part of our Cover 2 or that the safeties will read the QBs body language and eyes and pick a few passes off.

 

Again, this is not to simply let TV off the hook, this strikes me as the real world we are working with.

 

Would I prefer a differe safety than Vincent who after 5 years in the league is hitting his peak as a player, has enough experience to make good reads but is young enough to make plays? You bet!  This is not Vincent.

 

However, since I do not see such a player available at an affordable cost with this skillset, I think our D switch plays to TVs strengths and away from his weaknesses and he should be able to do the job. Is he older? Yes!  However, are there indications that he has something left (yes his team leadin INT and FR #s) and some indication that he is at least middling rather than plain sucking in his weaker areas? Yes, his middlin on the team tackle numbers

 

I am also pleased that he started all 16 last year. It is missing a few starts as Villarial did which is one of the signs that age may catching up with a player.

 

If folks have safety concerns, though I also think that the Cover 2 will be a boon to Lawyer Milloy, I a, much more worried about him rather than Vincent as far as their prospects. The yare both old guys on the backside of their careers, but Milloy has made his living as a tackler rather than a cover guy and seems to have a lower baseline of speed than Vincent that both have slipped from.

 

Even worse, though TVs cap number is not small, Milloy's is even higher. I'd look to him as a likely problem we may be forced to replace rather than worry about Vincent.

 

Milloy struck me as a more valuable player than TV last year at safety.  However, the safeties will be asked/required to different things in the Cover 2 than in the run blitz. I think the Cover 2 helps both these players who I do not think have enough left to excel in the zone blitz. However, the Cover 2 strikes me as far more playing to TVs strengths than Milloys.

598578[/snapback]

 

you have GOT to be using voice recognition software. Jeebus, man.

[1gap2gap]

Yes and ------Yes

[Sisyphean Bills]

  Good saying, but this relates to one skater having no answer for an opponent's speed. 

 

Keep the speed in front of you, where it can be managed.

598524[/snapback]

 

I know what it means, and it applies just as much in this case. It doesn't matter if the guy is wearing skates or cleats, if he can't get there to make the play, it doesn't matter how hard he hits because the offensive guy is already by him on his way to the net or for a touchdown.

 

Simply put, I don't see any reason to think Milloy will be any better at ranging over half the field in a cover-2 than in some other scheme. I don't think Milloy was ever a speedster, but he once was mean, tough, smart and quick enough to get there to make plays. The guy has lost several steps and Belichick cut him because of it.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

I know what it means, and it applies just as much in this case.  It doesn't matter if the guy is wearing skates or cleats, if he can't get there to make the play, it doesn't matter how hard he hits because the offensive guy is already by him on his way to the net or for a touchdown.

 

Simply put, I don't see any reason to think Milloy will be any better at ranging over half the field in a cover-2 than in some other scheme.  I don't think Milloy was ever a speedster, but he once was mean, tough, smart and quick enough to get there to make plays.  The guy has lost several steps and Belichick cut him because of it.

598648[/snapback]

 

Didn't mean to offend you, and I agree that whether it's skates, or cleats, it applies.

 

My point is that it applies to speed beating a player, not a system.

The NJ Devils may have that ominous saying up on their locker-room wall right about now.

 

The idea will be to minimize Milloy's range by employing Kiffin's (or Dungy's) version of the c2 where the deep zone is split into thirds rather than halves. This will reduce Milloy's (and Vincent's) responsibilities. I don't see Fletcher covering that mid-1/3, but that's another problem.

 

You may be right. Maybe he fails. But this is the best base D for our aging safeties. I don't know if Leonhard is any quicker than an aging Milloy, but maybe Baker is. Right now, that's our depth, and that's our coach's plans.

[tcamedic474]

I thought he was terrible as a run defender. He looked pathetic versus Caddilac Williams in Tampa. We have gotten so few interceptions the last few years I will applaud the 4 int's.

598218[/snapback]

[/qu

 

Cadillac put a clinic on that whole defense!

[Adam]

No, he was big play deficient

[Sisyphean Bills]

Didn't mean to offend you, and I agree that whether it's skates, or cleats, it applies. 

 

My point is that it applies to speed beating a player, not a system.

The NJ Devils may have that ominous saying up on their locker-room wall right about now.

 

The idea will be to minimize Milloy's range by employing Kiffin's (or Dungy's) version of the c2 where the deep zone is split into thirds rather than halves.  This will reduce Milloy's (and Vincent's) responsibilities.  I don't see Fletcher covering that mid-1/3, but that's another problem.

 

You may be right.  Maybe he fails.  But this is the best base D for our aging safeties.  I don't know if Leonhard is any quicker than an aging Milloy, but maybe Baker is.  Right now, that's our depth, and that's our coach's plans.

598664[/snapback]

 

No offense taken. Sorry if it seemed that way. I think we're mostly in agreement. You're just being optimistic and me being pessimistic on the chances to pull another year or two out of Lawyer "Super Slo Mo" Milloy.

 

Thanks for the intelligent discussion, actually.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

No offense taken.  Sorry if it seemed that way.  I think we're mostly in agreement.  You're just being optimistic and me being pessimistic on the chances to pull another year or two out of Lawyer "Super Slo Mo" Milloy. 

 

Thanks for the intelligent discussion, actually.

598830[/snapback]

Right back at ya.

 

You bring up very legitimate concerns regarding Milloy, and your earlier point about Belichik(sp?) considering him a replaceable cog in his D's wheel has left many Bills fans doubting the move to sign him. Of course, at the time many of us (including myself) were elated.

 

Hopefully he can find his game in the new D, but again, if we don't get faster at our LB spots (TKO can't afford to lose a step), and get a fierce D-line, our aging safeties will be exposed.

[Simon]

The "next Rod Woodson"? Wasn't that just another TD sales job?

 

Vincent is (or was) an excellent cover corner but he's playing out of position and it shows. Woodson was a much more abrupt and physical corner and he was able to transition to safety because it suited his style. Ronnie Lott was another guy that made the switch, and that dude was ferocious.

 

Par for the course. The Bills seem to believe anybody can play any position like it was all some fantasy video game.

 

Aeneas Williams was a dynamite cover-corner who was more of a technician than a banger and he made the switch very succesfully.

Ray Buchanan was 5'8", 185lbs and he made a very succesful switch to the Free.

Mike Rumph was switched to safety and immediately payed dividends.

 

All three of these guys made very succesful switches right before the Bills moved Vincent to safety. There was some very recent positive history with the kind of switch the Bills attempted with Vincent and TV was an excellent candidate for exactly that kind of transition.

So your assertation that this was some "TD sales job" is just as bogus as your statement that the Bills were running the club like some fantasy video game. It was a sound idea with recent evidence to support the move.

Cya

 

P.S. I'm very curious to see what Vincent looks like this year with 2 years under his belt and no longer being forced to play in that ridiculous scheme where the secondary was expected to cover receivers after they were repeatedly given free releases in every imaginable down and distance.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

P.S. I'm very curious to see what Vincent looks like this year with 2 years under his belt and no longer being forced to play in that ridiculous scheme where the secondary was expected to cover receivers after they were repeatedly given free releases in every imaginable down and distance.

598909[/snapback]

 

Amen, brutha.

[Simon]

Amen, brutha. 

598916[/snapback]

 

Drove me freaking nuts.

As a former pro D-Back, Jerry Gray sure as hell should have known better. I don't care whether you're going man-up or trying to hold a zone together or even playing a cover2 with a zone-over man-under twist, there is just no way you can be an effective secondary when you never have guys engaging receivers at the LOS. You put Mel Blount, Darrel Green, Ronnie Lott and Rodney Harrison out there and ask them to play in a "scheme" like that under current NFL rules and even they're going to look like a bunch of damnedable fools.

I admit I don't know a lot about Dick Jauron, but I like all 4 of our starting DB's and am really hopeful that next year that they can at least approach the level of play we saw when Dick LeBeau was still here to keep Jerry Gray's head out of his own posterior.

Cya

[Guest BackInDaDay]

Drove me freaking nuts.

As a former pro D-Back, Jerry Gray sure as hell should have known better. I don't care whether you're going man-up or trying to hold a zone together or even playing a cover2 with a zone-over man-under twist, there is just no way you can be an effective secondary when you never have guys engaging receivers at the LOS. You put Mel Blount, Darrel Green, Ronnie Lott and Rodney Harrison out there and ask them to play in a "scheme" like that under current NFL rules and even they're going to look like a bunch of damnedable fools.

I admit I don't know a lot about Dick Jauron, but I like all 4 of our starting DB's and am really hopeful that next year that they can at least approach the level of play we saw when Dick LeBeau was still here to keep Jerry Gray's head out of his own posterior.

Cya

598921[/snapback]

 

Yeah, that was pretty much the point of my question as to where Vincent was pre-snap on the plays that found him a step behind the receiver. You'ld have to breakdown film to know for sure, but I've got a feeling that Gray was too predictable in his schemes. Our keys were used against us to get better matchups out of the gate.

 

Like the man said, it ain't rocket surgery.

 

Sit these vets back behind a couple Pro-Bowl caliber CBs and LBs and keep the plays in front of 'em.

 

Guess you read the thread... any thoughts on how our current roster fits the plan?

God forbid this turns into Fewell's folleys.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Aeneas Williams was a dynamite cover-corner who was more of a technician than a banger and he made the switch very succesfully.

Ray Buchanan was 5'8", 185lbs and he made a very succesful switch to the Free.

Mike Rumph was switched to safety and immediately payed dividends.

 

All three of these guys made very succesful switches right before the Bills moved Vincent to safety.

 

Mike Rumph? The guy who's sat out most of the last 2 years with the 49ers? Is that your definition of "successful switch"?

 

I never claimed it was impossible to switch. Nor, did I claim Vincent was horrible. Vincent may be adequate enough as a FS someday, but I'm not ready to say the guy is the "next Rod Woodson" until he actually plays something like Rod Woodson did.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Drove me freaking nuts.

As a former pro D-Back, Jerry Gray sure as hell should have known better. I don't care whether you're going man-up or trying to hold a zone together or even playing a cover2 with a zone-over man-under twist, there is just no way you can be an effective secondary when you never have guys engaging receivers at the LOS. You put Mel Blount, Darrel Green, Ronnie Lott and Rodney Harrison out there and ask them to play in a "scheme" like that under current NFL rules and even they're going to look like a bunch of damnedable fools.

I admit I don't know a lot about Dick Jauron, but I like all 4 of our starting DB's and am really hopeful that next year that they can at least approach the level of play we saw when Dick LeBeau was still here to keep Jerry Gray's head out of his own posterior.

Cya

598921[/snapback]

 

Simon. I like your cut on this and I agree with you that I am looking forward with interest to see how TV adapts to playing the safety position with a season+ under his belt and doing his job within a Cover 2 scheme that should be quite favorable to his background and skillset.

 

I think he could well fail to be adequate if the age bug sneaks up on him suddenly as it sometimes does with folks. However, I think folks who simply declare he sucks are not properly evaluating the reality that playing the zone bliz simply demanded he take responsibilities (be a main cog in run stopping and not focus on his CB skills) that were not the best part of his game.

 

The fact he did register a team leading INT total and was around the ball enough to tie for the team lead in FRs are reasonable indicators that age has not completely overwhelmed him yet.

 

However, one reaction I had to your post was that though the Gray scheme and D sucked in 05 I think you are being a bit too harsh if you really feel that:

 

"there is just no way you can be an effective secondary when you never have guys engaging receivers at the LOS."

 

I agree if you alter that to say its veru hard (maybe impossible) to have the BEST performing secondary when you never engage receivers at the line, however, it is merely reality which had the Bills D as #2 statistically in the league with Gray running soft coverage as part of his zone blitz in 04. I think the facts say that there is no way one can be effective using this coverage is wrong.

 

We heard the same complaints about numerous Bills team's under 'bend but don't break' Corey where the Ds were not the best at all, but they and their secondaries were effective.

 

The strongly related issue you mention that I do not think the facts support is the distinction you draw between LeBeau and Gray. I think there is little real question about the fact that LeBeau is a better DC than Gray.

 

However, I think complaints that Gray has no idea what he is doing or that he is completely ineffective are in fact reduced to baseless whining by the realities:

 

1. I also expected there to be a big drop-off in the effectiveness of the Bills D from 03 to 04 with the loss of LeBeau, but the Bills D proved me wrong with a solid performance up until a LeNeau D (and ST and O) beat the pants off the Bills in the final game. Part of this may be explained by the weaker competition the schedule gave us during the streak last year, but this is only part as the Bills D not only did not backslide but actually produced better #s last year under Gray than they did under LeBeau/Gray.

 

2. One might try to claim that this result was merely due to the leftover LeBeau effect and he deserves the credit and not Gray for last year. However, LeBeau was gone and has no role in building gameplans for last year's opponents, no role in making in game adjustments last year and no role in recalibrating and retraining the team over the bye week last year. I thought the Bills would be OK with the leftover effects of the zone-blitz inventor but definitely less productive. Facts are they did what they were supposed to do against weaker opposition and in fact were more productive under Gray and than the model under Gray/LeBeau.

 

3. I also think that Gray deserves kudos for his work with LeBeau in 03. I was advocating canning GW back then even after he HC'ed the team to an 8-8 record after a 3-13 season, I certainly was more than ready to say bye-bye to Gray as well, I had assumed that Gray only kept the DC job because it would be really hard to justify keeping GW around if after canning his OC the first year, you canned his DC the second.

 

However, I would flat out say it was very impressive how quickly Gray mastered understanding and implementing the zone blitz when he kept the play calling duties as DC in 03. I begam to conclude that actually much of the blame for our horrendous D effectiveness in 01 and 02 actually lay with our attempt to implement the GW designed TN D with Buffalo. Gray deserves his fair share of blame for this as he was the DC and should have massaged and taken a stand against GW if he demanded we run a D which depended upon having Jevon Kearse and Blaine Bishop talents at LDE and SS (Chidi Ahanatou and Raion Hill just could not cut it and most could see this even from outside).

 

Yet Gray proved to me in 03 when he mastered the LeBeau scheme well enough to call the D plays, that he was not wed to the TN scheme. He added to this when without LeBeau the Bills D remained at least as productive as it had been with Gray taking the sole lead on gameplanning, game adjustments and teaching.

 

Am I glad that we are moving away from the zone-blitz and the soft CB coverage it requires (even with LeBeau at the helm) because the CBs are on an island and the safties are run stopping rather than backing up the CBs. You bet!

 

However, I have seen enough football to know that while it is hard to be the best with the zone-blitz LeBeau/Gray and then Gray alone showed you could be effective.

 

This does raise the question then what happened to this D in 05.

 

My sense is:

 

1. Opponents had a bunch of tape of Gray and his tendencies. I think opponents gameplanned well for us and particularly once injuries tightened up our ability to bring forth numrous packages and be unpredictable we suffered a lot,

 

2. We played badly. i think a key to this team is that the D in particular lost its edge and belief in itself when it became clear that TD was more interested in using this season as a training camp for JP than simply givng us our best chance to win (even if our best chance would have been a bad chance with Bledsoe).

 

3. The PW loss had a bigger effect on our run stopping ability than i expected. This case showed one of the limitations of stats. pW played fewer than 2/3 of the downs in 04 sohe seemed quite replaceable. Edwards was quite productive as a reserve in 04 so it at least was not unbelievable (though I was pretty firmly in the non-believer camp for his prospects as a starter, but took solace in the hope Anderson might step up. Crowell also did a surprisingly good job for TKO, but TKO is TKO and this was a big personnel loss (though actually runners were ripping us even before the end of TKO's season.

 

None of this lets Gray off the hook as he is ultimately responsible for the performance and he was not even adequate running a D with these problems (everyone has problems in this league).

 

However, these specific factors and a team which proved to be in general meltdown explain the 05 breakdown to me. The claim that it happened just because or even mostly because Gray is a bad coach does not strike me as accurate. Ignoring the production of what was an effective (though not the best) D under Gray/LeBeau and Gray alone in 04 simply ignores all the facts IMHO.

[Mikie2times]

When you talk about systems it's important to look at how the different positions can influence each others play. On Passing downs Grey's defensive success was predicated on forcing rash decisions by the QB. Without dominating pass rushers on the defensive line we were forced to blitz. As we saw time and time again the blitz wouldn't arrive and our DB's were left exposed. On Rushing downs Grey's defensive success was predicated on our interior lineman tie up blockers. Since we couldn't do that the blockers our DT's were supposed to be taking up got to our LB's. The solution was either excessive run blitzing, or stacking our safeties in the box.

 

One poster in this thread said new systems don’t turn over the hill players into pro bowlers. I agree with that assessment, and Jauron’s system will not make TV a pro bowl player. But isn’t it more logical to assume MaGee, Clements, Milloy, and Vincnt have more talent then they displayed in 2005, when at least 3 of the 4 showed a decline in play? It wasn’t a coincidence the secondary play declined rapidly as the defensive problems compounded.

 

When we signed TV the plan wasn’t to switch him over to a brand new position and then expect him to flourish when we ask him to do more then 80% of the FS in this league. We asked TV to cover ground his body wouldn’t allow him to cover, then we asked him to play a much bigger role in run support then he has at any point in his career. Like many players on this defense TV a classic example of coaches forcing a system on players that no longer fit that system.

 

I wouldn’t be opposed to grooming a replacement but when we have so many other holes I just don't see why cutting TV is a priority. Not when his salary is only 200,000 less then the Dead cap hit would be and when were switching over to a defense better suited for his play.

[Dawgg]

Of course it is logical to assume that the players on the defense were better than what they showed... but I don't feel that is the case for Vincent. That's my opinion, obviously...

 

Clements had a bad year, that's the bottom line. He had an off year and it happens, even to very good players (Eric Moulds has one every other year!)

 

McGee was solid for the most part.

 

Milloy was solid. He was often sent to the line of scrimmage, but when a tackle had to be made, he made it.

 

Vincent stunk up the joint on numerous occassions. I can't count how many times he just shied away from making a tackle that could have saved significant yardage. I sensed that he lost a step. I would rather put him back as a backup corner and draft a youngster to play safety. New England managed to do that when Milloy was cut... but Vincent is clearly overmatched and out of position as a safety.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One poster in this thread said new systems don’t turn over the hill players into pro bowlers.  I agree with that assessment, and Jauron’s system will not make TV a pro bowl player. But isn’t it more logical to assume MaGee, Clements, Milloy, and Vincnt have more talent then they displayed in 2005, when at least 3 of the 4 showed a decline in play?  It wasn’t a coincidence the secondary play declined rapidly as the defensive problems compounded. 

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[Mikie2times]

Of course it is logical to assume that the players on the defense were better than what they showed... but I don't feel that is the case for Vincent.  That's my opinion, obviously...

 

Clements had a bad year, that's the bottom line.  He had an off year and it happens, even to very good players (Eric Moulds has one every other year!)

 

McGee was solid for the most part.

 

Milloy was solid.  He was often sent to the line of scrimmage, but when a tackle had to be made, he made it.

 

Vincent stunk up the joint on numerous occassions.  I can't count how many times he just shied away from making a tackle that could have saved significant yardage.  I sensed that he lost a step.  I would rather put him back as  a backup corner and draft a youngster to play safety.  New England managed to do that when Milloy was cut...  but Vincent is clearly overmatched and out of position as a safety.

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He probably has lost a step, but as fans we really have no way of knowing how much of that is TV and how much of that was the system and personnel.

 

TV was used in way's most FS in the NFL aren't accustomed to, and TV was lost. He's good at playing in normal zones, and man coverage, yet we asked him to play large zones to cover space left by blitzing defenders. He's bad at playing near the line of scrimmage and in run support yet we ask him to do those things because our interior line is cheese.

 

If we can get some help with FA's and the Draft I really think TV has a chance to have a much better year in Jaurons scheme. Even if you disagree with that wouldn't it still be worth finding out at that cost of 200,000$? That is the amount of cap relief cutting Vincent will bring for next seasons.

[Dawgg]

Would never advocate cutting him. I think he brings a lot to the table, particularly veteran leadership... but if I were running the team (thank God I'm not), I would draft or sign a younger more athletic safety and move TV to 3rd or 4th corner. I think he has a lot more to offer at that position and with teams increasingly using spread offenses, Vincent would still get a lot of playing time that way.

 

He probably has lost a step, but as fans we really have no way of knowing how much of that is TV and how much of that was the system and personnel. 

 

TV was used in way's most FS in the NFL aren't accustomed to, and TV was lost. He's good at playing in normal zones, and man coverage, yet we asked him to play large zones to cover space left by blitzing defenders. He's bad at playing near the line of scrimmage and in run support yet we ask him to do those things because our interior line is cheese.

 

If we can get some help with FA's and the Draft I really think TV has a chance to have a much better year in Jaurons scheme. Even if you disagree with that wouldn't it still be worth finding out at that cost of 200,000$? That is the amount of cap relief cutting Vincent will bring for next seasons.

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[Simon]

Guess you read the thread... any thoughts on how our current roster fits the plan?

I'm reluctant to assume what the plan is 'til I actually see it. But I like this defensive roster and think if you put an anchor on this ship, the right cap'n could do damned near anything he wanted with it.

 

it is merely reality which had the Bills D as #2 statistically in the league with Gray running soft coverage as part of his zone blitz in 04. I think the facts say that there is no way one can be effective using this coverage is wrong.

I'd concede the point if I thought the Bills were running the same things in 2004 that they ran in 2005. But they weren't. Nate Clements had one of the best years you'll ever see from a corner and he didn't do it standing 10yrds away from the game all year.

I don't know why they ran like that this year.

-Maybe they trying to help a Front7 that was weakened by the loss of PhatPat by keeping their secondary facing the LOS on nearly every down.

-Fewer fire zones this year may have been an indication of Jerry Gray, hotshot young co-ordinator wanting his own team, trying to step further from the shadows of LeBeau and incorporate less of the master's style.

-Maybe the loss of Spikes, his lockerroom Beta dog, so shortly after the loss of PhatPat, his lockerroom Alpha dog, put a fear into him that he could never shake.

Whatever the reason, this was not the same defensive style that was succesful 2 years ago.

 

Mike Rumph? The guy who's sat out most of the last 2 years with the 49ers? Is that your definition of "successful switch"?

Is Willis your definition of a God?-)

Yeah Rumph's gotten hurt the last 2 years but before those 2 injuries, he had indeed made a very succesful switch to safety, just like Woodson, Lott, Aneas Williams and Ray Buchanan had. My point wasn't that Mike Rumph has stayed healthy following his succesful switch, my point was that TD and teh Bills hadn't been doing anything foolish and were actually being very shrewd considering recent history and the player they were working with.

 

I'm not ready to say the guy is the "next Rod Woodson

You're the only one that's typed that.

Badol said he "He should have been the next Rod Woodson."

And he's right, he should have been.

And if he was in Baltimore, he probably would have been.

But he's not in Baltimore.

 

And Aeneas Williams was the next Rod Woodson.

And Ray Buchanan was the next next Rod Woodson.

But Troy Vincent could still be the next next next Rod Woodson.

Unless Charles Woodson beats him to it.