jester43 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 he has been nice enough to compensate me for making accurate predictions last week, so i thought i 'd test his generosity again. i am thinking pgh +3 and car/sea over 43.5. i like the steelers' defense and their ability to play well on the road. also, i like ben much better than plummer. no knock on plummer, but i think ben is a notch above him. in the nfc game, i am leaning toward carolina +3.5 but not too confidently...i am more comfortable that both teams will score...i know the panthers D is solid, but i think sattle can put up a few TDs at home. anybody have thoughts to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 Don't bet on Pittsburgh. As I've stated before-no team has ever made the Super Bowl that was not within 2 wins of best record in the conference. To bet a 3 point underdog, you have to think they'll win the game outright. Pittsburgh would have to do something that no other team in the 40 year history of the game has done. Unless you're a really wreckless gambler, don't do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jester43 Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Don't bet on Pittsburgh. As I've stated before-no team has ever made the Super Bowl that was not within 2 wins of best record in the conference. To bet a 3 point underdog, you have to think they'll win the game outright. Pittsburgh would have to do something that no other team in the 40 year history of the game has done. Unless you're a really wreckless gambler, don't do it! 575764[/snapback] yeah but you sort of have to throw out the games that rothlisberger missed, don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerme1 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 Go with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 he has been nice enough to compensate me for making accurate predictions last week, so i thought i 'd test his generosity again. i am thinking pgh +3 and car/sea over 43.5. i like the steelers' defense and their ability to play well on the road. also, i like ben much better than plummer. no knock on plummer, but i think ben is a notch above him. in the nfc game, i am leaning toward carolina +3.5 but not too confidently...i am more comfortable that both teams will score...i know the panthers D is solid, but i think sattle can put up a few TDs at home. anybody have thoughts to share? 575747[/snapback] I was considering a similar play: Teasing Pitts up to +9 and the over in Car/Sea down to 38ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 yeah but you sort of have to throw out the games that rothlisberger missed, don't you? 575770[/snapback] No. Under all circumstances, nobody's done it in 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 i have denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMMER07 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 Take the points in both games, my book has them both at +3.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Brady Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Don't bet on Pittsburgh. As I've stated before-no team has ever made the Super Bowl that was not within 2 wins of best record in the conference. To bet a 3 point underdog, you have to think they'll win the game outright. Pittsburgh would have to do something that no other team in the 40 year history of the game has done. Unless you're a really wreckless gambler, don't do it! 575764[/snapback] didn't pitts. just get rid of that team??? I think this game is a big time under 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 I just did a count & the # of teams that have made the playoffs that were not within 2 wins of best record in the conference (or league the 1st 4 SBs) is 130 give or take a couple. So if Pittsburgh wins they'll be doing something 130 teams before them haven't done. I'll take the type of odds that Denver has of winning the game 24/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 I just did a count & the # of teams that have made the playoffs that were not within 2 wins of best record in the conference (or league the 1st 4 SBs) is 130 give or take a couple. So if Pittsburgh wins they'll be doing something 130 teams before them haven't done. I'll take the type of odds that Denver has of winning the game 24/7. 576386[/snapback] You guys keep bringing this up. It's a nice stat, it really is. And I think it's cool that someone will do this kind of homework. However, there is one key flaw in the thinking. You state that "To bet a 3 point underdog, you have to think they'll win the game outright." That's not what he's saying. What he is saying is that Pittsburgh probably WILL lose...just not by more than 3 points. Now, if you want to do something useful for a gambler, go back and count the number of teams that made the playoffs that were not within 2 wins of best conference record, and let me know how they did vs. the spread. I've got $20 says that 130 number drops dramatically. Plus, you can expect a very low scoring game with a hyped up Pittsburgh defense, which plays into the dog. The thing that gives Denver the edge is that Jake can roll and throw, unlike Manning. But Plummer, like many quarterbacks, have a raised level of suckitude when being pressured. Not picking on your fact checking; just correcting the basis on which you assume he is betting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jester43 Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 $cha-ching$! have a great monday everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 $cha-ching$! have a great monday everyone! 579211[/snapback] Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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