Finger Pointing is easy with this team

[AKC]

The easiest thing to do with a losing team is to find fault with everyone from the trainer to Ralph Wilson's dog groomer. Problem with it is that there isn't anywhere near the distance between this team and the better teams in the league that all the finger pointing would lead one to believe.

 

The truth about the NFL today is that the most important players on any roster have changed dramatically over the past 30 years. The media and fans they feed are still stuck on believing the "skill" position players are the most critical, while fans with a deeper appreciation of the game recognize that better defenses win upwards of 90% of the important games in the NFL.

 

But even those that recognize the greater importance of today's defenses are typically stuck in a mentality of defense that presumes CBs and DEs have the greatest impact because stopping a team on 3rd down is where the defense's bread gets buttered.

 

The problem with that thinking is that it just isn't supported by the facts. If you look at the best 3rd down D's in the league you'll find Arizona, Philly and the Ravens among the top 10- teams with a combined record of 10 wins and 20 losses so far this season.

 

The NFL has become a first down league- defensive and offensive success on first down has more to do with ultimate success in the league than anything else, with the success of the D being far and away the more important since the teams with great first down Ds end up giving their offense more opportunities over the course of a Sunday than their counterparts. The truth is a team that focuses on and is successful shutting down their opponents on first down simply doesn’t need anything more than an offense that is capable of putting together some sustained drives during a game- no need for the flashy WR or exciting QB and RB- simply an offense who can chew up some clock when their D has shut down the opponent and turn some of those spurts into points.

Putting your opponent in 2nd and 3rd and long situations allows you to put more abundant talent on the field and still be effective stopping them on the longer downs.

 

When it comes to first downs there is no player on the football field with more importance than the interior defensive linemen or lineman according to scheme. Everything begins in the middle of the defensive line on first down. Even where your opponent throws the ball it’s the push in the center that dictates your opponent’s success. The best DE’s in the league have little chance when they’re playing to the sides of poor quality DTs. Yesterday was a great example of this- facing a QB who has proven to be as good as any playing in the game today we were unable to provide any push to flush him to our DEs when he did drop to pass on first down, and he simply made his reads from the safety of his pocket and ate us up- challenging our assumed strength in pass coverage. We brought help to the line from the safety spot all day and teased Brees to throw on us- and throw he did. And it was all predicated on the fact that we had no quality at the DT position to pressure him out of the pocket to set up our DEs.

 

We’ve watched all year what happens when our opponent recognizes the poor talent we’ve assembled at DT, and we saw yesterday what a team will do to a defense bringing help to their poor DTs by challenging the line with extra men.

 

It’ll be an off-season with lots of blame-laying, at the feet of coaches and players and owners and zebras and ostriches, but in the simplest of all terms our failures of 2005 have been more directly proportional to the fact that we simply can’t stop anyone from running for 5 yards on first down and if we risk giving our bad DTs any help the outcome is utter embarrassment.

 

Looking to the sidelines before the game it was clear Sam Adams was overheated sitting head down in front of a misting fan and favoring in a major way his bad leg when he did any warm-up. His face also suggested he figured he had no business being in the game. We’ve been fortunate to have one starting quality DT on our roster when Sam has been healthy but even with a clean bill of health Sam is merely a great 1-technique DT. You can’t expect to win the in the NFL with just one great 1-technique DT, you must have at the VERY minimum have a good 2-gap DT to play alongside him. All the best defenses today have a complement of three, and in some cases four, very good to great 1 and 2 gap DTs. 2005 is a football season wasted because we came into it with merely one quality DT in our rotation, and with DT having evolved into the most critical position on the football field the wheels are falling off our wagon since that one quality DT isn’t up to snuff at this time.

 

The worst news is our upcoming opponents get to watch the San Diego game and notice the 4 spots we just dropped today in our pass defense rating. And with no one to help a decent DE group flush our opponents QBs we might expect to see a lot more challenges to the balance of our D. Maybe it’s fair to spread the misery around- but that will in no way change the fact of where everything for 2005 started falling apart before we even stepped on the field to face the Texans in the opener- our failure to sign/draft a dependable first down defense in our interior.

[Bill from NYC]

Was it the beer, or was Anderson actually worse than Bannan?

[AKC]

Was it the beer, or was Anderson actually worse than Bannan?

509193[/snapback]

 

Neither one is "good" in the run game, but yesterday for the times the Chargers had early run success I thought Posey won the futility award; I'll watch the game again this week and confirm that. The problem with Bannderson is they represent no challenge to a short passing attack, something a healthy Sam Adams DOES offer.

[dave mcbride]

The easiest thing to do with a losing team is to find fault with everyone from the trainer to Ralph Wilson's dog groomer. Problem with it is that there isn't anywhere near the distance between this team and the better teams in the league that all the finger pointing would lead one to believe.

 

The truth about the NFL today is that the most important players on any roster have changed dramatically over the past 30 years. The media and fans they feed are still stuck on believing the "skill" position players are the most critical, while fans with a deeper appreciation of the game recognize that better defenses win upwards of 90% of the important games in the NFL.

 

But even those that recognize the greater importance of today's defenses are typically stuck in a mentality of defense that presumes CBs and DEs have the greatest impact because stopping a team on 3rd down is where the defense's bread gets buttered.

 

The problem with that thinking is that it just isn't supported by the facts. If you look at the best 3rd down D's in the league you'll find Arizona, Philly and the Ravens among the top 10- teams with a combined record of 10 wins and 20 losses so far this season.

 

The NFL has become a first down league- defensive and offensive success on first down has more to do with ultimate success in the league than anything else, with the success of the D being far and away the more important since the teams with great first down Ds end up giving their offense more opportunities over the course of a Sunday than their counterparts. The truth is a team that focuses on and is successful shutting down their opponents on first down simply doesn’t need anything more than an offense that is capable of putting together some sustained drives during a game- no need for the flashy WR or exciting QB and RB- simply an offense who can chew up some clock when their D has shut down the opponent and turn some of those spurts into points.

Putting your opponent in 2nd and 3rd and long situations allows you to put more abundant talent on the field and still be effective stopping them on the longer downs.

 

When it comes to first downs there is no player on the football field with more importance than the interior defensive linemen or lineman according to scheme. Everything begins in the middle of the defensive line on first down. Even where your opponent throws the ball it’s the push in the center that dictates your opponent’s success. The best DE’s in the league have little chance when they’re playing to the sides of poor quality DTs. Yesterday was a great example of this- facing a QB who has proven to be as good as any playing in the game today we were unable to provide any push to flush him to our DEs when he did drop to pass on first down, and he simply made his reads from the safety of his pocket and ate us up- challenging our assumed strength in pass coverage. We brought help to the line from the safety spot all day and teased Brees to throw on us- and throw he did. And is was all predicated on the fact that we had no quality at the DT position to pressure him out of the pocket to set up our DEs.

 

We’ve watched all year what happens when our opponent recognizes the poor talent we’ve assembled at DT, and we saw yesterday what a team will do to a defense bringing help to their poor DTs by challenging the line with extra men.

 

It’ll be an off-season with lots of blame-laying, at the feet of coaches and players and owners and zebras and ostriches, but in the simplest of all terms our failures of 2005 have been more directly proportional to the fact that we simply can’t stop anyone from running for 5 yards on first down and if we risk giving our bad DTs any help the outcome is utter embarrassment.

 

Looking to the sidelines before the game it was clear Sam Adams was overheated sitting head down in front of a misting fan and favoring in a major way his bad leg when he did any warm-up. His face also suggested he figured he had no business being in the game. We’ve been fortunate to have one starting quality DT on our roster when Sam has been healthy but even with a clean bill of health Sam is merely a great 1-technique DT. You can’t expect to win the in the NFL with just one great 1-technique DT, you must have at the VERY minimum have a good 2-gap DT to play alongside him. All the best defenses today have a complement of three, and in some cases four, very good to great 1 and 2 gap DTs. 2005 is a football season wasted because we came into it with merely one quality DT in our rotation, and with DT having evolved into the most critical position on the football field the wheels are falling off our wagon since that one quality DT isn’t up to snuff at this time.

 

The worst news is our upcoming opponents get to watch the San Diego game and notice the 4 spots we just dropped today in our pass defense rating. And with no one to help a decent DE group flush our opponents QBs we might expect to see a lot more challenges to the balance of our D. Maybe it’s fair to spread the misery around- but that will in no way change the fact of where everything for 2005 started falling apart before we even stepped on the field to face the Texans in the opener- our failure to sign/draft a dependable first down defense in our interior.

509189[/snapback]

 

 

awesome post. i know i risk the enmity of some here by raising these guys' names in this context, but it seems that butler/smith came to prioritize this aspect of the game (ted w., pat williams, and now jamal williams, castillo [the chargers' first rounder from this year]). i'm not stupid enough to say that donohoe doesn't recognize this (after all, he kept williams after letting all of the other butler-era players go except moulds), but his record is one of not trying to keep the unmoveable fat guys. a lot of that is the coach and not on him, i know, so it's not necessarily a direct accusation against him.

[AKC]

awesome post. i know i risk the enmity of some here by raising these guys' names in this context, but it seems that butler/smith came to prioritize this aspect of the game (ted w., pat williams, and now jamal williams, castillo [the chargers' first rounder from this year]). i'm not stupid enough to say that donohoe doesn't recognize this (after all, he kept williams after letting all of the other butler-era players go except moulds), but his record is one of not trying to keep the unmoveable fat guys. a lot of that is the coach and not on him, i know, so it's not necessarily a direct accusation against him.

509210[/snapback]

 

That's what makes the finger-pointing subjective- Donahoe has to shoulder a lot as the ultimate trigger-puller, but we have to assume he consults the coaching staff. To me the biggest crime was the failure to recognize that Ron Edwards was such a terrible fit for our rush defense- I'd love to know what Mularkey and Gray had to say about that decision, obviously the decision that in their minds made PWilliams expendable.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I don't disagree that having a strong interior is required for having a good defense, but the problem yesterday was that the defense was completely unable to stop the passing game. They never put meaningful pressure on Brees and played 1/2-mile off the receivers all game.

 

They may have gameplanned to shutdown LT, and they did. But only because the Chargers could move the ball through the air with extraordinary ease. At the end of the game, the Chargers no-name 5th string back was gashing the Bills in the running game so badly, I was almost convinced the Bills only had 4 guys on the field.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

This was only the second game I've watched all season (due to salary cap restrictions, no DTV this year). Anywho, Posey seemed to get stuffed at the line consistently, and our defense seems to over-pursue, putting them out of a lot of plays. There were also a lot of pathethic arm tackles, which resulted in (of course) no tackle.

 

So how high do you think that DT from Oregon will go, and is there a big DT in free agency we'll be able to pick up?

[AKC]

So how high do you think that DT from Oregon will go, and is there a big DT in free agency we'll be able to pick up?

509261[/snapback]

 

Ngata is considered a first round reach by a lot of the better draft agencies. Watson is the guy who overall gets the big ratings- playing side by side with Sam Adams it might become "difficult" for teams to take our interior for granted on first down.

 

Watson Draft Profile

 

 

I don't disagree that having a strong interior is required for having a good defense, but the problem yesterday was that the defense was completely unable to stop the passing game.  They never put meaningful pressure on Brees and played 1/2-mile off the receivers all game.

509239[/snapback]

 

Pressure on the edge becomes effective when there's pressure in the middle. With Bannderson on the field the opponent will keep their QB free of pressure using simply their interior OLine players, we add another quality tackle to play with a healthy SAdams and they'd be forced to bring one more blocker into the scheme or risk their QB backing out of the pocket and into our edge rushers.

[gantrules]

What amazes me is that this point was preached prior to the season beginning by a majority of the fans here.

 

No D line, No O line, minimal wins. It doesn't matter if you bring the Lord in to teach these guys how to play, if the talent isn't there the job isn't going to get done.

[Bflojohn]

Since we're spending ample time to review the talent at DT, may I show you the scouting report on Gabe Watson from Ourlads August preview...

#1 Watson, Gabriel Michigan 6' 3" 335 lbs.

Big, strong power athlete that regularly draws two or three blockers. Gets inside push by pressing the pocket. Has the innate strength to overpower blockers. Huge wide-body that gives effort every down and will finish in long pursuit. Disruptive player that is quick enough to beat block and force the play deep. Breaks on ball down the field and makes plays. Good initial quickness and instincts. Can hold his ground and anchor verses double team blocks. Two-year starter that is instinctive and competitive. Generally plays 90% of the game. Does NOT rotate.

 

Just my two cents, But that guy would look awesome next to Sam Adams in a 4-3 alignment..

[dave mcbride]

Since we're spending ample time to review the talent at DT, may I show you the scouting report on Gabe Watson from Ourlads August preview...

#1 Watson, Gabriel  Michigan  6' 3" 335 lbs.

Big, strong power athlete that regularly draws two or three blockers. Gets inside push by pressing the pocket. Has the innate strength to overpower blockers. Huge wide-body that gives effort every down and will finish in long pursuit. Disruptive player that is quick enough to beat block and force the play deep. Breaks on ball down the field and makes plays. Good initial quickness and instincts. Can hold his ground and anchor verses double team blocks. Two-year starter that is instinctive and competitive. Generally plays 90% of the game. Does NOT rotate.

 

Just my two cents, But that guy would look awesome next to Sam Adams in a 4-3 alignment..

509341[/snapback]

sounds perfect -- and too good to be true. what's the downside? also, based upon past widebody guys (stroud, wilfork, etc.) at what stage of the first round will he go? my guess is that if the bills wind up 6-10, they'll be drafting somewhere between 10 & 13. if they finish 5-11, they'll draft somewhere between 5 & 9. i can't see them losing to the jets, and since they're a decent home team, they'll probably win one of the other ones. what are the chance that guy will be there at 12? also, is there a topnotch center who might be available at the 44-45 slot overall?

[Bflojohn]

Awe heck, while I'm "at it" I'm going to use the Chicago Bears model of drafting DT's when they selected both Tommie Harrris and Tank Johnson and suggest that the Bills also draft Orien Harris too!

 

#4. Harris, Orien Miami 6' 2" 300 lbs.

A three-year starter that is a two gap player. Good lateral quickness. Accelerates off a block and gets "in" on play. Explosive first step to penetrate line and get up field. Can beat the inside trap with instincts and quickness. Works to push the pocket. Finishes plays and pursuit. Leverage player that bends his knees and stacks the blocker with his hands. Intense, relentless, and competitive!!!!

 

What do you think? I'm envisioning Thunder and lightning at the DT position that could carry this franchise for near 10 years!! These two would INSTANTLY make Schobel and Kelsay look TONS better!

[GG]

Let me get this straight - Two weeks ago you used the stats of Bills' worsening 3rd down percentage in '05 from '04 as indication that the defense sucks. But now you're saying that even though AZ, PHI & Balt have the best 3rd down defenses, their records suck. So which is it?

 

Or are you simply trying to justify that losing Pat W, and not replacing him is the one great factor that befells this defense?

 

In order for you to make a case that the goal of DTs in a pass rush is to collapse the pocket, it would be helpful to show exactly when Bills' interior line was capable of doing that, outside of Pat W's rookie year. When have you seen Jerry Gray's defense effectively stand up to a quick hitting passing attack?

 

What you saw yesterday was perfect execution of New England's game plan against Jerry Gray's defense. The only mind boggling thing is that more teams haven't implemented a hurry up against us. Teams with far lesser personnel than Bills don't give up 48 points that easily.

 

(PS - I'd venture to say that at least in Philly's & Balt cases, their losing record has nothing to do with their defense)

[Mikie2times]

Good post AKC

 

I noticed some DT draft talk so I thought I chime in. When Ngata goes is really up in the air right now, and while he's my first choice as of now, I will admit to only watching him in a couple games over his college career. The reason I make him my top choice is more a process of elimination.

 

I've watched every game Watson has played since he came to Michigan, and a good 90% of my friends are Michigan die hards. Scouting report or not Watson has played like an underachiever since he came to Michigan. He's very Sam Adams like in his motivation, and has always had weight problems. Then to top it off in an interview he gave during the Ohio State game he said the thing he loves most is food, and the thing he will miss the least when he leaves Michigan is practice. I found it funny that he publicly stated his two most obvious downfalls, food and laziness.

 

Some reports say Ngata has the same weight issues as Watson and at 350+ I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s true. It’s said that Ngata is a very hard worker, but that he is so talented (Oregon says the top Duck recruit ever) he often tries to rely only on his talent to beat players in college. If we pick him up the big question will be whether or not he understands that nobody is talented enough in the NFL to get by without good technique.

 

Like I said I know Watson is like this and if Ngata also is you can cross him off my list. I just haven't seen enough of him to know for sure so that’s why I rate him ahead of Watson. One more guy that could figure into the mix is DT Rodrique Wright from Texas, he seems to be climbing up peoples boards.

[dave mcbride]

(PS - I'd venture to say that at least in Philly's & Balt cases, their losing record has nothing to do with their defense)

509358[/snapback]

 

i think this last statement is key. with baltimore, if they had anything resembling a functional offense, their record would be a lot better. philly pretty much controlled dallas before caving, and if not for a couple of other offensive screwups, should be 6-4 now. it's not unlike the bills in 96 with todd collins - give 'em a decent offense and they're a 9-7 team all of a sudden. re the cards i don't know, but they're the arizona cardinals so by definition they're off the chart for these sorts of comparisons.

[dave mcbride]

Good post AKC

 

I noticed some DT draft talk so I thought I chime in. When Ngata goes is really up in the air right now, and while he's my first choice as of now, I will admit to only watching him in a couple games over his college career. The reason I make him my top choice is more a process of elimination.

 

I've watched every game Watson has played since he came to Michigan, and a good 90% of my friends are Michigan die hards. Scouting report or not Watson has played like an underachiever since he came to Michigan.  He's very Sam Adams like in his motivation, and has always had weight problems.  Then to top it off in an interview he gave during the Ohio State game he said the thing he loves most is food, and the thing he will miss the least when he leaves Michigan is practice.  I found it funny that he publicly stated his two most obvious downfalls, food and laziness. 

 

Some reports say Ngata has the same weight issues as Watson and at 350+ I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s true. It’s said that Ngata is a very hard worker, but that he is so talented (Oregon says the top Duck recruit ever) he often tries to rely only on his talent to beat players in college. If we pick him up the big question will be whether or not he understands that nobody is talented enough in the NFL to get by without good technique.

 

Like I said I know Watson is like this and if Ngata also is you can cross him off my list. I just haven't seen enough of him to know for sure so that’s why I rate him ahead of Watson. One more guy that could figure into the mix is DT Rodrique Wright from Texas, he seems to be climbing up peoples boards.

509369[/snapback]

 

you know, i've read these sorts of evals so many times that i've basically concluded that there is no fat man 2-gapper worth his salt who doesn't have motivation problems and food issues. why the hell do you think they're 6'2" and 340 pounds?!? it comes with the territory.

[AKC]

Let me get this straight - Two weeks ago you used the stats of Bills' worsening 3rd down percentage in '05 from '04 as indication that the defense sucks.  But now you're saying that even though AZ, PHI & Balt have the best 3rd down defenses, their records suck.  So which is it? 

509358[/snapback]

 

3rd down defense isn't taking place in a vacuum, but what I suggested in the post is that focusing on the players who would seem to make a 3rd down D potent- CBs and DEs specifically- is losing site of the fact that the game is more frequently being lost on the first down where you ceded 5 or 6 yards, especially if that 5 or 6 yards came on the ground. Play all the great ball you want on thrid downs but if you're giving up enough to your opponent on 1st they'll either close the down set on 2nd or leave themselves in a 3rd and nothing that allows them to run virtually any play in their playbook. A team facing a 3rd and 8 is limited to some fraction of their playbook by the mere distance required for success. And the guys who help you leave a team on the long 2nd and third down plays are your rushing package DTs.

 

Or are you simply trying to justify that losing Pat W, and not replacing him is the one great factor that befells this defense?

 

In order for you to make a case that the goal of DTs in a pass rush is to collapse the pocket, it would be helpful to show exactly when Bills' interior line was capable of doing that, outside of Pat W's rookie year.  When have you seen Jerry Gray's defense effectively stand up to a quick hitting passing attack?

 

509358[/snapback]

 

Opening this season without a quality 2 gap DT was the problem. There's plenty of those who aren't named Pat Williams.

 

Playing a great 1-technique guy on one side and a good 2 gap guy to the other draws the extra blockers that will otherwise be slowing down our DEs or extra rushers. The 1 technique player should be creating enough push to force the QB to stay back without stepping up into his throw. This is all that's necessary to give your DE's a real shot with regularity.

 

(PS - I'd venture to say that at least in Philly's & Balt cases, their losing record has nothing to do with their defense)

509358[/snapback]

 

 

Losing in the NFL ALWAYS has something to do with the defense. I'm glad you mention the Ravens- a perfect example. In 2000 they had the best D in football and carried the kind of offense contemplated in the original post. Their '04 defense isn't anywhere near as as good, and where it drops off the most is inside the interior of that DLine. No one is going to mistake Kelly Greg and Maake Kemoeatu for Tony Siragusa and Sam Adams, an interior duo who made the Ravens the #1 run stoppers in the NFL versus being 9 spots worse in 2005. In fact the thing that separates the 2000 from 2005 Ravens was their ability to stop opponents on first down and create undesirable down/distance series for their higher profile (but of less importance IMO) players to take advantage of on those long 2nds and 3rds.

[GG]

Opening this season without a quality 2 gap DT was the problem. There's plenty of those who aren't named Pat Williams.

 

Playing a great 1-technique guy on one side and a good 2 gap guy to the other draws the extra blockers that will otherwise be slowing down our DEs or extra rushers. The 1 technique player should be creating enough push to force the QB to stay back without stepping up into his throw. This is all that's necessary to give your DE's a real shot with regularity.

 

509389[/snapback]

 

Again, I don't disagree with your assessment, just disagree with it being an issue only this year. Bills' inability to collapse the interior in a pass rush has been a gaping hole ever since the TW/PW combo was split. Bills were generally lucky that opposing teams haven't gone to hurry-up as a staple offense whenever they play vs Buffalo.

[Mikie2times]

you know, i've read these sorts of evals so many times that i've basically concluded that there is no fat man 2-gapper worth his salt who doesn't have motivation problems and food issues. why the hell do you think they're 6'2" and 340 pounds?!? it comes with the territory.

509386[/snapback]

 

Food issues are one thing, and anybody over 325 most likely has that problem, but motivation is a different story. I wouldn't be so quick to assume every large DT has a problem with motivation, just look at the difference in Adams play when he's motivated and when he's not. The NFL is filled with physically gifted players, but the best are usually the gifted guys that train hard, practice hard, and play hard.

[AKC]

Again, I don't disagree with your assessment, just disagree with it being an issue only this year.  Bills' inability to collapse the interior in a pass rush has been a gaping hole ever since the TW/PW combo was split.  Bills were generally lucky that opposing teams haven't gone to hurry-up as a staple offense whenever they play vs Buffalo.

509403[/snapback]

 

We were without doubt an overated D last season, but I don't know if I'd put as much blame on the declining skills of our run package DTs. PW surely didn't get teh penetration he had shown in I believe his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but his role had evolved to really playing run downs and leaving fdor REdwards. Since as of last year Big Sam was still playing the penetrating role in run D, PW was playing mostly a 3 technique that required he NOT charge the backfield. Even this said, and with his far more limited plays, he still had 2.5 sacks for the season, the second best in his career and for more sack yardage than at any point in his career.

 

I think the best question about our defense for the past few seasons is whether Gray is a guy who is calling a great game with lesser talent or a guy with the benefit of good talent but not great scheming. One thing I'm sure of is that along the DLine he has one of the- maybe the- worst groups of interior DLine "talent" in the league.