So who can we least afford to loose??

[smuvtalker]

Geir Gudmunsen...

 

Oh wait, they already waived him....

[34-78-83]

I'd argue that you can scheme to protect lesser talent on a football team most easily at the running back positions, then after that safety, TEs, QB, LB, OL, DEs, CBs but lastly DTs. No matter how you run your defense, if the middle of your line has one dimensional players like Ron Edwards playing full time you will be abused by the better rushing offenses in the league. If you have one-dimensional run stoppers you'll be abused by the short passing offenses in the league.

 

The nature of the NFL has changed dramatically over the past 25 years and today the best teams have far more talent at their interiror DLine spots than we have, both in starting quality and in depth. NE currently has 5 interior players who are better than anyone on our roster after Sam Adams, and they play a 3-4! Philly-after a Super Bowl season- drafted interior DLine withtheir first pick and San Diego- suffering from a poor pass defense- used a 1st rounder on DLine interior.

 

If at any point this season we're forced to start Ron Edwards and Tim Anderson with Justin Bannon filling out the primary rotation, I believe you can look for teams to run up 200 and 250 yard rushing days against us over the second half of the season- once our Linebackers have been decimated by the injuries they'll suffer from the lack of control of the line by our Defensive interior.

417775[/snapback]

 

I Always value your opinions as you know but this one seems to have somewhat of a "chicken little" quality to it (IMO). 200 to 250 yards? So you're saying one player, who's atleast average replacing a very good player along with 10 returning starters on a fantastic defense with a great line coach, very good coordinator, and highly effective scheme is going to take us from giving up like 90 rush yds per game to somewhere around 150 average over the course of the season? Wow.

[AKC]

I Always value your opinions as you know but this one seems to have somewhat of a "chicken little" quality to it (IMO). 200 to 250 yards? So you're saying one player, who's atleast average replacing a very good player along with 10 returning starters on a fantastic defense with a great line coach, very good coordinator, and highly effective scheme is going to take us from giving up like 90 rush yds per game to somewhere around 150 average over the course of the season? Wow.

417832[/snapback]

 

That's exactly what I'm saying. We were thin last year but we had two superior talents to protect our LBs. I've watched all of Ron Edwards that I have to to see that he offers no LB protection because he simply can't hold his ground. Anderson is still very raw. Yes, I believe at that postionit makes that much difference.

[34-78-83]

That's exactly what I'm saying. We were thin last year but we had two superior talents to protect our LBs. I've watched all of Ron Edwards that I have to to see that he offers no LB protection because he simply can't hold his ground. Anderson is still very raw. Yes, I believe at that postionit makes that much difference.

417840[/snapback]

 

My prediction(I think we may have discussed this before. Sorry, poor short term memory) is @ 10-15 more yards rushing per game given up and about .4 to .5 yards per carry. I guess I don't see him as much as a liability as you do. Did you get a chance to see the highlights I metioned from the Colt's game?

[AKC]

My prediction(I think we may have discussed this before. Sorry, poor short term memory) is @ 10-15 more yards rushing per game given up and about .4 to .5 yards per carry. I guess I don't see him as much as a liability as you do. Did you get a chance to see the highlights I metioned from the Colt's game?

417871[/snapback]

 

Sorry, I meant to pull that tape. I'll be back home on Sunday and watch it after seeing the Chicago game.

 

I think I'll start tracking a nrew stat just for Edwards called "Times Weebled". It will compliment his times pancaked and suggest just how many plays a game he is beat off the ball in run defense and hence taken out of the play effectively because he's unbalanced.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

That's exactly what I'm saying. We were thin last year but we had two superior talents to protect our LBs. I've watched all of Ron Edwards that I have to to see that he offers no LB protection because he simply can't hold his ground. Anderson is still very raw. Yes, I believe at that postionit makes that much difference.

417840[/snapback]

 

 

Cliff Notes Begin:

 

Due to popular whining and the season drawing close there is my usaul too-length rumination on football detail below, but particularly since I have far more questions than answer, I have summarized the following post into these questions:

 

1. 10 of 11 starters are back for the Bills D and the one who is gone only took 58% of last year'sD snaps so he was replace on approaching half the plays. Why should there be a big downturn this year in application of our scheme in the big picture?

 

2. One answer to this might be comparing the play of Phat Pat to his replacements Edwards, Anderson, perhapsBannan) and finding it better. If this is the big diferemce why was it not apparent on almost 40% of Bills plays last year.

 

3. Some point to the run D difference as the big thing saying the big D here is that Phat Pat sat on all third downs. I don't think this explains Phat Pat taking so few snaps. Guranteed there was a 1st and 2nd down if there was a third down and as Os sometimes got the FD on an earlier down there were more 1st downs than any other down. If Phat Pat only took 56% of the snaps it is a pretty sure thing he was also sitting on some second downs and maybe a few firsts as well. How does this factor into the switch to Edwards.

 

4. Edwards was a sub last year compared to him being a starter in 2002. Yet we saw his sack numbers go from 2.5 when he played more to 4.0 with him playing less, how do you explain this difference (His total tackles went way down so there is obviously some use difference his usual playing partner at DT Adams saw both is total tackles and his sacks go up near his historic highs)?

 

5. The Bills made use of a 3 DE set with Phat Pat being one of the big losers in PT how is this usage explained in the Bills D?

 

I think the answers to these questions point one in the direction of not being too worried about losing PW or Edwards being ready to step up and replace him. There s a hole as Phat Pat was a big guy who can stop the run and Edwards stepped in got more sacks than he had before. However, as Edwards has bulked up 20+ lbs and did so without losing speed, i think one can be comfortable with him expanding his role particularly with pressure of a well-regarded but still unroven Anderson behind him.

 

The bottomline is that I think the Gray D is a very different bird than the traditional D in the way players are asked to play. A better measure of Edwards oerformance in replacing Phat Pat (who i think player well for us) is not to use traditional analysis of his play that he is doing his job well when he hits the POA and attacks the LOS, but actually when he moves laterally and covers more space only engaging when he is sure where the ball is headed and letting Sam Adams and unexpected LNs shoot the gap or attack the LOS. The following too long post are my rumblings which led to this summary. Please skip te rest if you are worried about brain hemorrhage or your boss.

 

Cliff Notes End

I'd be the first to admit that (well maybe the second as my wife usually beats me to the punch aclnowledging my frailties) that I really don't understand structurally what is going on with our D.

 

The one thing that I am pretty sure of is that the standards I usually apply to judge good football play by individual players do not apply to what a player should be doing to make our D work well.

 

Over-analysis is easy to do so should be avoided. I think the key to understanding our D is almost certainly very simple because if it was truly as complex as brain surgery pro football players would not grasp it.

 

However, I think that what Gray has done is take the innovation of the zone blitz developed by LeBeau (an innovation not in that it was something completely different conceptually, but an innovation in that it asked players to do the same things they defenders did before, it just had different players do those same things so that the O might not be able to figure who exactly was going to blitzand who was going to pass protect on a given play- you had an RT waiting for the RDE to pass rush as normal and he knew that because the TE was going into the flat that he did not have to worry about the SLB or the TE would get the hot-read pass, but he found himself just standing there because in fact the RDE dropped back into the flat and covered the TE while the SLB blew right by him on the blitz and the QB simply has to eat the ball rather than throw to a TE who was covered).

 

I wish that the Bills had some nickname which actually explained their D. I understand what you are saying about DTs and their importance in to a D, but I think Gray has really done something different here in utilizing (perhaps augmenting the zone-blitz so it really is something different and when assessing individual play what may look like abject failure may in fact be a player doing it exactly right in our nameless D system.

 

An example of this is actually seen in looking at the play of the DTs. I nirmally want my DT to cover the running lanes in the center of the line in coordination with the other DTs. Its tough work as there are really three lanes in the center of the line and these two mean covering them. The three lanes are blocked by 3 players RG,C,LG and the RB has a choice of going up the center, to either side or he can string it out and try to go off or around either tackle depending on where he sees a hole.

 

The LBs and sometimes the safeties supplement these DTs by having responsibility for the holes left uncovered as naturally there is a hole. The 3-4 was an innovation because as LBs got bigger and quicker and they knew what the DTs would try to do and they could see what was happening they filled the gaps and actually the 3-4 was a good run defense though it actually had less meat in the middle. A mobile or run plugging DT would take the assignment to plug a gap and make it difficult to run there. There wer MLBs to either side and if they read run they got to come in with a head of steam and meet the RB at a POA spot with a head of steam. If the mobile or run plugging DT guessed right, there ended up being a ton of traffic at the POA with LBs coming in from either or both sides and it was tought to run even against a lousy 3 DL front.

 

The next and current innovation is that DTs are getting bigger while getting faster also. Teams are finding that with two DTs clogging the center you can actually turn the 3 gaps into 1 or 2 gaps as these behemoths command the line. 4-3 and big DTs are in vogue now.

 

By either traditional standard the Edwards lateral movement is troubling. A good DT either picks a spot and either stops or blows up the play if he is really quick. A good DT in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 pushes and penetrates forcing the play and the LBs read, pick, choose and clean-up the trash.

 

This is not the Bills system.

 

Gray not only varies the roles so sometimes the DE usually the RDE peals back into pass coverage, but he gets the new bulked up quicker player rotate among roles in addition to rotating the responsiblity of a particular role. He has worked with and gotten both the DEs when Schobel and Denney are in to not only take a serious short zone role, but in fact both of these players can now comfortably do pass coverage dropping back into the medium deep zone area where LBs and even safties use to be the pass coverers. It just is not unusal to see one of these two doing man to man coverage of an RB or TE a dozen or so yards downfield. It is different in that Schobel uses athleticism to do this and Denney has also developed some athleticism but also has a huge wingspan and covera alot of territory just y raising his arms,

 

What does this have to do with DTs, well part of the answer is that it was not infrequent that we saw the Bills DL go with 3 DEs and only 1 DT at all last year. Even odder, we might see Denney in the DT role muscling up to to do the traditional DT run stopping, or he might possibly still do pass coverage from a DT spot is his zone was the middle of the field, Mean while we might see Fletcher or Spikes on the blitz essemtially unblocked. Spikes did do a lot of pass coverage was him actually sneaking around while the O slowly developed a screen and he got very good at pouncing into the flat when the QB was rushing to make the throw as a confusing blitz from the MLB or SLB came in. 2 of Spikes 2 TDs were on just these typw of picks in the flat.

 

The DT also factors into this because of the particular way Gray uses Adams and Edwards skills. On some play Edwards has run resposibility but rather than attacking at his guess of a POA and depending upon the LB to fill the other gap if he is wrong, the Edwards job seems to be to slide laterally down the line and clean-up the trash is quick footed Adams guessed wrong when he shot the gap or pick up for a pass rushing or run stopping attacking LB. You might see Edwards failing to occuppy the lineman and the LB doingthis, but the plan seems to often be that it is the LBs job to get in there fast and either blow-up the play or make a pile and Edwards is playing the traditional LB role of lateral movement as the second guy into the POA.

 

On the other hand, on passing downs it is Edwards job to shoot the gap and he did so well last year racking up a career best in total sacks even though he was merely a reseve who had once been a starter. Its all quite impressive to me.

 

At any rate I have more questions than answers, but I think these questions pose a number of challenges to an analysis which uses standards and a context for setting these standards which are outmoded for assessing the Bills D. As the season is drawing close I will place these questions in Cliff notes at the top of this post and if folks are intrigued by them they can plow into this too lengthy e-mail or ignore it as they prefer.

 

1. 10 of 11 starters are back for the Bills D and the one who is gone only took 58% of last year'sD snaps so he was replace on approaching half the plays. Why should there be a big downturn this year in application of our scheme in the big picture?

 

2. One answer to this might be comparing the play of Phat Pat to his replacements Edwards, Anderson, perhapsBannan) and finding it better. If this is the big diferemce why was it not apparent on almost 40% of Bills plays last year.

 

3. Some point to the run D difference as the big thing saying the big D here is that Phat Pat sat on all third downs. I don't think this explains Phat Pat taking so few snaps. Guranteed there was a 1st and 2nd down if there was a third down and as Os sometimes got the FD on an earlier down there were more 1st downs than any other down. If Phat Pat only took 56% of the snaps it is a pretty sure thing he was also sitting on some second downs and maybe a few firsts as well. How does this factor into the switch to Edwards.

 

4. Edwards was a sub last year compared to him being a starter in 2002. Yet we saw his sack numbers go from 2.5 when he played more to 4.0 with him playing less, how do you explain this difference (His total tackles went way down so there is obviously some use difference his usual playing partner at DT Adams saw both is total tackles and his sacks go up near his historic highs)?

 

5. The Bills made use of a 3 DE set with Phat Pat being one of the big losers in PT how is this usage explained in the Bills D?

 

The bottomline is that I think the Gray D is a very different bird than the traditional D in the way players are asked to play. A better measure of Edwards oerformance in replacing Phat Pat (who i think player well for us) is not to use traditional analysis of his play that he is doing his job well when he hits the POA and attacks the LOS, but actually when he moves laterally and covers more space only engaging when he is sure where the ball is headed and letting Sam Adams and unexpected LNs shoot the gap or attack the LOS. The following too long post are my rumblings which led to this summary. Please skip te rest if you are worried about brain hemorrhage or your boss.

[VABills]

Can I have a cliff notes to the cliff notes please.

 

j/k

[34-78-83]

Sorry, I meant to pull that tape. I'll be back home on Sunday and watch it after seeing the Chicago game.

 

I think I'll start tracking a nrew stat just for Edwards called "Times Weebled". It will compliment his times pancaked and suggest just how many plays a game he is beat off the ball in run defense and hence taken out of the play effectively because he's unbalanced.

417966[/snapback]

 

Be careful with that though because you might have noticed for example in the Green Bay game on the first play of the game he got pushed back about 2 yards.... A closer inspection reveals that he occupied a double team block on the play, thus freeing up another player. I don't think were asking him to beat double teams now are we?

[YOOOOOO]

Mcgahee....no doubt

[LabattBlue]

Cliff Notes Begin:

 

Due to popular whining and the season drawing close there is my usaul too-length rumination on football detail below, but particularly since I have far more questions than answer, I have summarized the following post into these questions:...

418058[/snapback]

2352 words. What a poor effort. I am waiting for the ultimate 5000 word FFS post. I know you have it in you. Are you saving it for your game 1 summary post?

[smokinandjokin]

2352 words. 

418140[/snapback]

 

Didn't read one of them. I usually get to Fake-Fat Su-- then I stop reading.

[AKC]

Be careful with that though because you might have noticed for example in the Green Bay game on the first play of the game he got pushed back about 2 yards.... A closer inspection reveals that he occupied a double team block on the play, thus freeing up another player. I don't think were asking him to beat double teams now are we?

418084[/snapback]

 

That was a chip and a block if I remember and it took him out of the play that goes the other way. Watch Sam getting similar attention.

[34-78-83]

That was a chip and a block if I remember and it took him out of the play that goes the other way. Watch Sam getting similar attention.

418298[/snapback]

 

Oh he's no Sam. I realize that. And he's no Pat either for that matter. I just don't think the dropoff is quite as big with this year's version of Edwards.

[Ghost of BiB]

Brian Mooreman.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

That was a chip and a block if I remember and it took him out of the play that goes the other way. Watch Sam getting similar attention.

418298[/snapback]

 

 

What was the outcome on that play, I honestly don't remember. If it was a big Packer gain and Edwards was at fault (though if he was dealing with a block and a mere chip them I think it is going to be hard to grill him for not beating them back question him yes, but grill him probably not).

 

If on the other hand the TEAM did well on this play then I have no problem at all with Edwards not getting the tackle or some stat credit for the play, he took the attention of two players and his team stuffed the oponent which is what he is there for..

 

Edwards has been a signifciant part of a D which held GB to 7, stuffed Indy with a great zone blitz presentation and stuffed the Pack in a scrimmage.

 

Folks may want to dissect in individual performance but if the TEAM D performance remains as productive the nitpicking is not well thought out.

 

Perhaps it it was accompanied with some suggestion of Anderson or Bannan are better choices or advocates some waiver wire alternative (folks are railing without even some fantasy league Cory Simon suggestion). I think this focus on individual stuff about Edwards may just as likely reflect a lack of understanding of the Gray D as it is a good footbsll indictment of Edwards play.

 

The bottomline is there has yet to be an explanation of why if Edwards is so piss poor in his play the D has been so successful with him in there so far this season. This is likewise true of the indictments made of Posey's play last year, but somehow we were the #2 D statistically even with this stumblebum as SLB.

 

It would seem a relatively simple matter given how bad folks seem to say these two are to link the times our D failed (NE or Pitts) to Posey's bad play though I'm not sure what bad play this pre-season (the Packers did score on the first drive Edwards bad play should be easily linked to this if true).

 

Unless there is some real world impact, folks may want to question whether the failings they see make a difference whatsoever.

[AKC]

What was the outcome on that play, I honestly don't remember. If it was a big Packer gain and Edwards was at fault (though if he was dealing with a block and a mere chip them I think it is going to be hard to grill him for not beating them back question him yes, but grill him probably not).

 

418395[/snapback]

 

The outcome was a short gain to the other side of our DLine. My concern about Edwards has nothing to do with one or two plays- it's how he very consistently is knocked out of plays on running downs and the ease with which our opponents are able to do it. He has a very high center of gravity and it makes it easy to get under his pads and send him "Weebling". He is more effective oddly enough using that high weight when he's pass rushing against a double because the weight up that high and with his strength makes it more difficult for two guys- frankly were I our opponent I'd try to rely on single team blocking on him on passing downs.

[34-78-83]

What was the outcome on that play, I honestly don't remember. If it was a big Packer gain and Edwards was at fault (though if he was dealing with a block and a mere chip them I think it is going to be hard to grill him for not beating them back question him yes, but grill him probably not).

 

If on the other hand the TEAM did well on this play then I have no problem at all with Edwards not getting the tackle or some stat credit for the play, he took the attention of two players and his team stuffed the oponent which is what he is there for..

 

Edwards has been a signifciant part of a D which held GB to 7, stuffed Indy with a great zone blitz presentation and stuffed the Pack in a scrimmage.

 

Folks may want to dissect in individual performance but if the TEAM D performance remains as productive the nitpicking is not well thought out.

 

Perhaps it it was accompanied with some suggestion of Anderson or Bannan are better choices or advocates some waiver wire alternative (folks are railing without even some fantasy league Cory Simon suggestion). I think this focus on individual stuff about Edwards may just as likely reflect a lack of understanding of the Gray D as it is a good footbsll indictment of Edwards play.

 

The bottomline is there has yet to be an explanation of why if Edwards is so piss poor in his play the D has been so successful with him in there so far this season. This is likewise true of the indictments made of Posey's play last year, but somehow we were the #2 D statistically even with this stumblebum as SLB.

 

It would seem a relatively simple matter given how bad folks seem to say these two are to link the times our D failed (NE or Pitts) to Posey's bad play though I'm not sure what bad play this pre-season (the Packers did score on the first drive Edwards bad play should be easily linked to this if true).

 

Unless there is some real world impact, folks may want to question whether the failings they see make a difference whatsoever.

418395[/snapback]

 

 

FFS, Edwards did have a poor outing vs. GB, so that's mainly what's being discussed here. Nobody can deny what he did in the Colts game either (play extremely well), so really were looking at average production over a small grouping of games for the moment. I agree with you that the overall production hit will be minimal, while some others feel it will carry more weight. I'll add that I do feel that the pass rush will actually benefit from his presence a bit.