TNF - Bucs/Falcons (Not that anyone cares)

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

5 minutes ago, dhg said:

But they could have made it 28-21. One score game. Instead, by going for 2 and missing it became a two score game

 

It was still a 1 score game at 28-20. Obviously that's dependent on them converting the next 2 pointer though. 

 

I think the math is fairly simple in this scenario. If you're down by 14 in the 4th Q you should always go for 2. If you have a 40% chance of converting (somewhat less than league average) the odds look like this:

 

40% chance of converting the first 2 pt conversion leading to a large advantage (win on the next TD+PAT)

36% chance of failing both 2 point conversions leading to a large disadvantage  (2 point deficit)

24% chance failing the 1st 2 point conversion and succeeding on the 2nd leading to a tie

[dhg]

22 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

It was still a 1 score game at 28-20. Obviously that's dependent on them converting the next 2 pointer though. 

 

I think the math is fairly simple in this scenario. If you're down by 14 in the 4th Q you should always go for 2. If you have a 40% chance of converting (somewhat less than league average) the odds look like this:

 

40% chance of converting the first 2 pt conversion leading to a large advantage (win on the next TD+PAT)

36% chance of failing both 2 point conversions leading to a large disadvantage  (2 point deficit)

24% chance failing the 1st 2 point conversion and succeeding on the 2nd leading to a tie

I understand that. But if you kick the 1 you don't worry about having to go for 2 pt conversion. Take it to OT worst case