Josh Allen turnover narrative, rollercoaster narrative...

[Wizard]

Like the discussion. Two thoughts:

 

First, I think Allen has such big performances that his average/slighly below average looks even worse than it really is.  He has been average minus the 6TD game  the past 5 weeks or so, thus recency bias probably comes into play.

 

Second, even though Allen is a top 10 player in the league this year, his performance is somewhat expected. A player (no matter how great) is going to have stretches whether it is a few games in a row or a season when they still are great but not overwhelming better than other top-tier athletes. The Regression to the mean concept applies to even the very best.

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Wizard

[Slack_in_MA]

Josh is one of those unique talents that when he makes a mistake, it's amplified by a factor of X. 

 

I've lived in the Boston area for over 30 years, through all the Super Bowls, and witnessed the same thing about Tom Brady.

 

He'd throw a pick or fumble (yes, it actually happened) and people would be dumbfounded-- must be someone else's fault, he's a unicorn, etc, etc.

 

Fortunately for Brady, he had SB success early in his career, and didn't have the same weight of expectations hanging over him his entire career.

 

Deep down we all know it-- life isn't always fair.

[BuffaloBillies]

I love Josh. But I will say this year the reason people are on him more is that when we re-run the play, we see that other guys are open on his interceptions which are usually to tightly-covered receivers. Not all interceptions are created equally. Josh has had his fair share of bad ones this year.

[gjv]

The big difference between this year’s Bills and last year’s Bills is turnovers. We had a mediocre WRer room in ‘24 and tons of injuries on the defense. TURNOVERS!!!!

[Scott7975]

13 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

I've heard this narrative brought up every time Allen is discussed in mainstream circles. 

 

 

Allen career int percentage 2.3%

 

Drew Brees career int percentage 2.3%

 

Josh Allen int % since 2019 including the playoffs, 2.1 %

 

Allen .9 int % in the playoffs ( lowest all time)

 

Montana 2.9 int % in the playoffs 

 

Allen also has the lowest turnover percentage in NFL playoff history from what I read. I haven't confirmed if that's true. But it's certainly extremely low 

 

I then read that since the turnover worthy stat was created, Allen is top 5 in the least amount of turnover worthy plays in the playoffs...

 

Allen ints in first 121 starts- 93 int

Tom Brady in first 121 starts - 91 int

 

Allen from 18-23 78 int , 107 total turnovers 

Tom Brady from 01- 06, 78 int , 101 total turnovers 

 

Allen in 2024 had the lowest amount of negative plays in NFL history, fumbles, ints and sacks....

 

 

I'm not saying Allen is perfect, and he can definitely be streaky sometimes, but these numbers not only suggest the narrative is wrong, but that it's actually the opposite. Especially in the biggest pressure moments.

 

 

Why does this keep being brought up every time Allen is discussed. I find it bizarre 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t care about Allen turning over the ball when he has a high TD volume. Never have. 

[Kelly to Allen]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

I don’t care about Allen turning over the ball when he has a high TD volume. Never have. 

 

Same here bro. I've said that the 2020-2021 Bills, or this recent Tampa game is Allens identity. 

 

He's a gunslinger and you massively diminish his ceiling turning him into a ball control, game manager QB who only throws 15-25 times