Regression to the Mean

[st pete gogolak]

One of my biggest fears is that there was ZERO chance of repeating 2024’s historic or near historic lack of turnovers and sacks: 8 turnovers (only 2 fumbles, not a single fumble from a running back or receiver); 14 sacks, loss of 63 yards.

 

Sure enough, it’s regression to the mean. In 11 games, 14 turnovers (more interceptions and fumbles than entire 2024 season); 28 sacks (double all of last year in 11 games).  More lost yards to sacks LAST NIGHT than entire 2024 season.  
 

It’s not the whole story, but it’s a big part of why this year is turning into such a disappointment.  

[saundena]

We are having the year this year that we were supposed to have last year.

 

Even so, it's a hopeless feeling when you don't really trust the leadership to figure things out in the off season 

[NoSaint]

16 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

One of my biggest fears is that there was ZERO chance of repeating 2024’s historic or near historic lack of turnovers and sacks: 8 turnovers (only 2 fumbles, not a single fumble from a running back or receiver); 14 sacks, loss of 63 yards.

 

Sure enough, it’s regression to the mean. In 11 games, 14 turnovers (more interceptions and fumbles than entire 2024 season); 28 sacks (double all of last year in 11 games).  More lost yards to sacks LAST NIGHT than entire 2024 season.  
 

It’s not the whole story, but it’s a big part of why this year is turning into such a disappointment.  

yup - we ran it back with an unsustainable model

1 minute ago, saundena said:

We are having the year this year that we were supposed to have last year.

 

Even so, it's a hopeless feeling when you don't really trust the leadership to figure things out in the off season 

no the worst part is that last year was supposed to be the reset but turned into the new normal when we committed to everyone staying and not adding much 

[SCBills]

It’s wild to hear Beane talk about how good the Offense was LAST YEAR, when forecasting to THIS YEAR.

 

Anyone with a brain could tell you it doesn’t work that way. 

 

 

[saundena]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

It’s wild to hear Beane talk about how good the Offense was LAST YEAR, when forecasting to THIS YEAR.

 

Anyone with a brain could tell you it doesn’t work that way. 

 

 

As any forward looking investment presentation or marketing materials will clearly indicate: "Past performance doesn't guarantee future returns."

[kkim0904]

We have MVP QB but that is pretty much it.  Josh doesn't look good. Both our offense and defense are very mediocre...  Hope we make playoff this season.  I am already looking forward for the next season.  We definitely need coaching changes at the end of the season