Wait - The Falcons Were Coming Off Their Bye

[WNYFAN1]

17 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

Why isn't this being talked about more???

 

They looked like a team coming off their bye and the Bills defense especially started playing way better in the second half after they adjusted to what I'm sure some wrinkles they were able to add during the bye and two weeks to prepare for the Bills.

 

Feels like massively important context

Per ChatGPT:

 

"Over the last decade of regular seasons (2015 through 2024), league-wide results for teams in the game immediately after their bye have hovered right around 50% with no statistically meaningful edge. Independent analyses show that any historic advantage largely disappeared in the post-2011 era of reduced practice time during byes, with performance near even since then."

[EssexBill]

So we're coming off our bye this week, so that means we're gonna win easily right? right?

 

 

[Dillenger4]

17 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

Why isn't this being talked about more???

 

They looked like a team coming off their bye and the Bills defense especially started playing way better in the second half after they adjusted to what I'm sure some wrinkles they were able to add during the bye and two weeks to prepare for the Bills.

 

Feels like massively important context

Yes, they had a bye the week before playing us. And you think this had something big to do with the outcome? Well my son, you are correct.

Either way... we got smoked. Joes vs Joes... and we lost.

Let's hope Carolina is a W for us.

[90sBills]

11 minutes ago, EssexBill said:

So we're coming off our bye this week, so that means we're gonna win easily right? right?

 

 

Absolutely. Time to recoup from the Falcons loss. 

[corta765]

16 hours ago, MPL said:

What is also not being discussed enough is that three of Josh Allen's worst games over the past few seasons have come against Jeff Ulbrich defenses. 

 

While I am not one for excuses there is some real truth here. The stat lines for Josh against Ulbrich in all of his games are as followed:

2025: Bills lose 27-14 at ATL:   15-26 180 yds 2 TDs 2 INTs 57.7 cmpl 4 sacks 72.6 rating (42 yds rush)

2024: Bills win 23-20 at NYJ:   19-25 215 yds 2 TDs 76.% cmpl 2 sacks 127.9 rating (18 yds rush 1 TD)

           Bills win 40-14 NYJ:   16-27 182 yds 2 TDs 59.3% cmpl 2 sacks 104.2 rating (17 yds rush 1 TD)

2023: Bills lose 22-16 at NYJ:   29-141 236 yds 1 TD 3 INTs 70.7 cmpl % 62.7 rating (36 yds rush)      (MNF football disaster)

           Bills win 32-6 NYJ:   20-32 275 yds 3 TDs 1 INT 62.5% cmpl 1 sacks 108.2 rating (15 yds rush)        

2022: Bills lose 20-17 at NYJ:   18-34 205 yds 0 TD 2 INTs 52.9 cmpl % 46.8 rating (86 yds rush 2 TDs)    (Gabe Davis drop game)

           Bills win 20-12 NYJ:   16-27 147 yds 1 TDs 59.3% cmpl 3 sacks 86.5 rating (47 yds rush 1 TD)     

2021:  Bills win 45-17 at NYJ:   21-28 366 yds 2 TD 1 INTs 75 cmpl % 125.6 rating (3 yds rush) 

           Bills win 27-10 NYJ 24-45:   239 yds 2 TDs 53.3% cmpl 2 sacks 83.5 rating (63 yds rush)     

 

Josh's average day against his defense breaks down as followed:

227 passing yards 1.6 TDs 1 INT 62.9 compl% 1.5 sacks 36 yards rush .5 rush TDs

 

The only year Josh really was clean against Ulbrich was 2021 and that is the only year he was able to pass in a big way on his defense. From 2022 on Ulbrich absolutely had success reigning Josh in passing wise and 2024 was the only year I would say Josh stayed within himself against that defense without getting sugar high. Josh was only sacked 14 times in 2024, Ulbrichs defense got him 4 times. Where the numbers get even more interesting is from 2021-2025 Josh had 53 INTs and took 109 sacks, Ulbrichs defense was responsible for 9 INTs (16.9%) and 14 sacks (12.8%) total which is pretty strong number in itself.

 

There is something to be said for division games as teams get to know each other really well, but even against the Pats who Josh has had some weirdo games against he has been far more successful in that time period and BB is maybe the best D cord ever so you can understand when the off game happens. But the turnovers and sacks especially paint a picture that Ulbrich in general found ways to slow Josh considerably in a way most teams have not been able to.